TWCobra
Senior Member.
Jason, first I am not a 777 pilot but have 10000+ hours on the 747 and 767.
I have stated since day 2 of this search that the most likely, being purely a measure of probability; cause for this was pilot intervention. I got to that point by using occams razor. Every one of the other options requires too many coincidences, pre-planning, BS scenarios and too many people to keep quiet. Conspiracy theories all have those same flaws.
I can't rule out other causes definitively. But the "ghost plane" theory requires a specific major malfunction that knocked out all comms instantaneously, then knocked out the crew, but allowed the aircraft to keep flying for eight hours and make two course changes after the supposed incident. It is a very unlikely scenario but not impossible.
The terrorist options requires pilot qualified terrorists to overpower the cabin crew, somehow get into the flight deck, overpower both pilots and then fly off and never be seen again. No such passengers have been identified by worldwide agencies whose job is to do that. So... Possible but highly unlikely.
We are really only left with pilot intervention, but for that you need a motive. The opportunity is there. It happened in February with Ethiopian airlines; except the first officer on that aircraft only wanted asylum. I dont know if either of the pilots had a strong motive to do this, but barring that it is still the most likely scenario. That doesn't mean it definately happened that way.
I have stated since day 2 of this search that the most likely, being purely a measure of probability; cause for this was pilot intervention. I got to that point by using occams razor. Every one of the other options requires too many coincidences, pre-planning, BS scenarios and too many people to keep quiet. Conspiracy theories all have those same flaws.
I can't rule out other causes definitively. But the "ghost plane" theory requires a specific major malfunction that knocked out all comms instantaneously, then knocked out the crew, but allowed the aircraft to keep flying for eight hours and make two course changes after the supposed incident. It is a very unlikely scenario but not impossible.
The terrorist options requires pilot qualified terrorists to overpower the cabin crew, somehow get into the flight deck, overpower both pilots and then fly off and never be seen again. No such passengers have been identified by worldwide agencies whose job is to do that. So... Possible but highly unlikely.
We are really only left with pilot intervention, but for that you need a motive. The opportunity is there. It happened in February with Ethiopian airlines; except the first officer on that aircraft only wanted asylum. I dont know if either of the pilots had a strong motive to do this, but barring that it is still the most likely scenario. That doesn't mean it definately happened that way.