Metabunk

Explained: 9:33 AM ET Time on NPR Story about Storming the Capitol

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2021-01-10_15-05-42.jpg

A "Live Update" page on NPR keeps the same URL, but the content changes at the day progresses. This allows people to keep tabs on a story by refreshing the page, or by the page auto-refreshing. The original story was posted at 9:33 AM ET, with the headline "Diehard Trump Supporters Gather In The Nation's Capital To Protest Election Results".

Through the day the story was updated, with the last update at 3:08 PM ET, shortly after rioters were photographed on the Senate chamber floor. The headline for the final version of the story was...
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Gabriel Sterling Debunking Trumps Accusations from the Raffernsperger Call

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwOlzoBpdwQ

This is the part of the press conference where Stirling discusses timestamped parts of the videos that were shared. I have tried to sync up the relevant clips.

Videos Source: https://securevotega.com
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Blue UFO Over Hawaii

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Hawaii Blue UFO.jpg

A UFO seen in Hawaii looks similar to an LED kite to me, appearing as a curved line of light that changes shape.


The loop above has been stabilized, the apparent jitter comes from a combination of motion blur (from camera motion, not the object moving) and loss of focus.

Here it's compared to another LED kite:


Article:
Misitina Sape told Hawaii News Now she captured the image at 8:26 p.m. near Haleakala Avenue in Nanakuli.

Not long after, a woman named Moriah spotted what looked like the same object passing over Princess Kahanu Estates.


Here's some LED kites
...
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Debunked: 94% of Fulton County Ballots Manually Adjudicated [It's a Process all Batches go Through]

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Fulton Count Adjudication Issue.jpg

https://www.c-span.org/video/?477819-1/fulton-county-georgia-election-update

The false claim that 94% of Fulton County ballots needed manual review and adjustment comes from a misunderstanding of what Richard Barron, the director of elections in Fulton County, said on Nov 4, 2020 (the day after the election). It's right at the start:
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Trump's Call with Brad Raffensperger

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Article:

President Trump urged fellow Republican Brad Raffensperger, the Georgia secretary of state, to “find” enough votes to overturn his defeat in an extraordinary one-hour phone call Saturday that election experts said raised legal questions.

The Washington Post obtained a recording of the conversation in which Trump alternately berated Raffensperger, tried to flatter him, begged him to act and threatened him with vague criminal consequences if the secretary of state refused to pursue his false claims, at one point warning that Raffensperger was taking “a big risk.”

Throughout the call, Raffensperger and his office’s general counsel rejected Trump’s assertions, explaining that the president is relying on debunked conspiracy theories and that President-elect Joe Biden’s 11,779-vote victory in Georgia...
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Debunked: "Missile Strike" caused Nashville Explosion

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Nashville Bombing header.jpg

The idea that a city of 700,000 people would somehow fail to notice a missile being fired a an AT&T building, or even the idea that some powerful and secretive cabal would think that nobody would notice, is pretty obviously ridiculous. But missiles are a common target for conspiracy theorists and so it should have been un surprising that some people say that the explosion in Nashville was not only from Anthony Warner's RV, but was augmented, or perhaps caused, by a missile.

The evidence presented for this is tenuous. Firstly there's the idea that the explosion happened across the road from the RV, an idea that took hold because of video showing a the central fireball being obscured by a dust cloud - discussed and debunked in another thread.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/de...sion-was-across-the-street-from-the-rv.11516/

The second piece of evidence is what looks like a trail of smoke that appears very shortly...
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Debunked: Nashville Explosion was "Across the Street" from the RV

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2021-01-04_10-04-50.jpg

The following video is a cropped and slowed version of the official Metro Nashville PD video of the RV explosion. I've also corrected it for the camera motion from the blast, so you can more accurate see where things are before and after.



Some people have claimed that the explosion comes from "across the street". This is an understandable mistake. If you overlay a before and "during" shot, you see a portion where the fireball is visible on the right, but the RV was on the left.


However even in this comparison, it should be obvious what is going on. The fireball is there, but it's blocked in the center by...
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Is Falun Gong Behind Seth Holehouse's "The Plot to Steal America"? It looks like it.

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Falun Gong Holehouse Header.jpg
A slickly produced video titled "The Plot to Steal America", which regurgitated many election conspiracy theories and pointed the finger at China, was shared in a tweet by Donald Trump on December 23, 2020.

The video is narrated and ostensibly created by Seth Holehouse and his web site "Man in America." Holehouse is a member of Falun Gong (also called Falun Dafa), a "new religious movement" that many people have described as being a cult. Several people have noted this connection and suggested that the video is simply disinformation, propaganda from Falun Gong. Falun Gong has a long history of attacking the communist government of China, and more recently of strongly supporting Trump.

It appears that attempts have been made by Falun...
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Explained: 82nd Airborne: "A Storm Is Coming" - Operation Devil Storm

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2020-12-16_09-29-12.jpg
"'Storm coming" is a joke I use whenever the the weather looks a bit dark. It's an old Yorkshire reference (like "there's trouble at 'mill"), a folksy comment meant to invoke the idea of a gruff old farmer looking out over the field at oncoming clouds.

It's also a very common metaphorical phrase used in movies and books. A search of the movie/TV data base QuoDB returns over a thousand results.

2020-12-16_09-40-06.jpg

It also represents a foundational belief in the QAnon theory, dating back to a random comment Trump made about "The Calm Before The Storm" in 20172020-12-16_09-44-43.jpgIt was likely he simply said something...
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'Fast Movers' and 'Transmedium' Vehicles

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transmedium header.jpg
In an article that was widely anticipated by the UFO community, Tim McMillan of The Debrief provides several nuggets of stories and information that will surely excite many, and provide a welcome distraction for some reporters, but ultimately does not advance the quest for actual physical evidence. The sources were either anonymous, vague, or speculative.

Article:
Given the report’s classification and their discussion of a “sensitive intelligence matter,” the officials we spoke with did so only under strict conditions of anonymity.


There are descriptions of two photos (but not the actual photos)

Firstly a silver...
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Burst Pipe Conspiracy Theories, Fulton County's State Farm Arena, Georgia

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2020-11-30_09-50-54.jpg

Article:
Statement Regarding Absentee Ballot Tabulation at State Farm Arena

NOV 3, 2020
At approximately 6:07 a.m
., the staff at State Farm Arena notified Fulton County Registration & Elections of a water leak affecting the room where absentee ballots were being tabulated. The State Farm Arena team acted swiftly to remediate the issue. Within 2 hours, repairs were complete. No ballots were damaged, nor was any equipment affected. There was a brief delay in tabulating absentee ballots while the repairs were being conducted.

Tonight Fulton County will report results for approximately 86,000 absentee ballots, as well as Election Day and Early Voting results. These represent the vast majority of ballots cast within Fulton County.


The above statement was posted on the State Farm Arena web site on Oct 3, but it's...
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Debunked: Navid Keshavarz-Nia's Claims of "A Sudden Rise in Slope" as Election Fraud Evidence

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Dr. Navid Keshavarz-Nia gave an affidavit as part of Sydney Powell's "Kraken" lawsuit. It's largely speculation based on his experience and on media reports and has remarkably little in the way of actual analysis or data.

One of the few direct claims of evidence revolved around the New York Times data feed, which is claims shows things that "demonstrates data manipulation by artificial means,""does not occur in the real world without an external influence," and "are cause for concern and indicate fraud."

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Debunked: Trump's Claim of "1,126,940 votes created out of thin air" in PA

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This false claim was Tweeted by Trump yesterday:
Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1332552283553476608

In one of the most factually inaccurate Presidential tweets of all time, Trump retweeted an image posted by PA State Senator Doug Mastriano, and claimed it shows that 1,126,940 votes were created out of thin air. Or course if this were true then something would be terribly wrong with the election, but of course it's not.

Here's the image in questions:

En2hlP5XYAAYO_m.jpg

The numbers in the table are mostly correct (for the time, they are all slightly higher now, on 11/28), but for some reason report Trump's election-day votes are listed as higher than they were. Here's the official figures:

2020-11-28_13-35-54.jpg

Or in a similar...
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Debunked: Crowder's "Fraud Week" Title Graphic (and Why it Matters)

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2020-11-20_14-20-37.jpg

Steven Crowder, a political comedian, has a logo currently being used to introduce segments of his show where he promotes false or unproven claims of election fraud. It shows a red line for Trump and a blue line for Biden. Red is safely ahead, but then blue suddenly jumps up into the lead with no change in red.

This graph is based mostly on actual data, but with a little twist that makes it into a lie.

Have a look at the actual graph that spawned this theory, back on Nov 4.

2020-11-20_14-27-25.jpg

Same graph? Have a closer look:
2020-11-20_14-40-22.jpg
The red line used to make the bar of the F is missing in the actual data. Where did it go? It went up. Trump's vote actually went up at the same time as Biden's, just not as much...
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Debunked: Democratic senators complained about 'vote switching' by Dominion voting machines in 2019

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In social media and fringe news sites, claims resembling the following are popping up:

Source: https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1327305801824940047

Screenshot:

warren_dom_tweet.png

Here is the bunk in short:
  1. It was a letter requesting information, not a formal complaint
  2. It went to all three major voting systems manufacturers (or rather to their largest shareholders), not just to Dominion
  3. The primary concern is "about the spread and effect of private equity investment in [...] the election technology industry", namely by cost-cutting
  4. It does not single out Dominion...
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Explained: Trump's Claim of Suspicious Early Morning Michigan Bump [It's Detroit]

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Trump Tweeted two graphs today from the NYT data.
Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1329602736053252107?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1329602736053252107%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Ftrump-makes-new-unverified-claim-about-michigan-votes-after-meeting-state-republicans-1548896

The Wisconsin one was already discussed, and is generally agreed to be the Milwaukee City mail-in returns.

2020-11-19_23-04-56.jpg

The 149,772 number seems wrong in the Michigan example. But the 96% figure is correct based on the data. This comes from:
Code:
...
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A Skeptical Call To Arms

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I am deeply concerned by the direction that Donald Trump is taking the country with his refusal to admit his clear defeat and his promotion of disinformation regarding election fraud. I am taking action.

While Trump's claims have been largely rebutted by bipartisan election officials, and his lawsuits are being rejected by a bipartisan judiciary, millions of people believe in his incendiary Tweets claiming victory and alleging widespread evidence of interference in the election.

It seems probable that he will leave the Whitehouse on January 20th, 2021, but he is not going quietly, and the damage that his rhetoric is both causing and enabling will last for many years, perhaps decades to come. Trust in the institutions of this country - elections, judges, the intelligence services, newspapers, and science - have steadily been eroded, and this last great assault by Trump will seal the deal for millions of people. Significant damage is being done to the fabric of society...
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Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

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ADMIN THREAD SUMMARY
The graph that Dr Shiva Ayyaduria shows is accurate. The hand-draw trendline is not at all accurate.

The downward slope is an inevitable consequence of split-ticket voting, something that we know exists, and variations in the amount of straight-ticket voting, something we also know exists. This video demonstrates this:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUp4uJt9TJg

Tool used: https://www.geogebra.org/classic/peacpfm6

Other people have done the same things:

Source: https://twitter.com/Guy_Remmie/status/1327227255739834371

And this article by Naim Kabir
https://kabir-naim.medium.com/dr-shiva-ayyadurai-the-danger-of-data-charlatans-4f675ffe793c
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Debunked: Suspicious "Biden Only" Ballots in Georgia

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2020-11-10_17-03-19.jpg

Steve Cortes, claims that if you subtract the number of votes cast for senator from the number of votes cast for president, then this gives you votes that were ONLY cast for that presidential candidate. He then claims that in the Georgia race, this number is suspiciously high for Biden, and this is "far too wide to be believable".

He does the math with Georgia, and comes up with 818 votes for Trump (claiming these are people who voted for Trump only), and +95,801 votes for Biden (claiming these are people who voted for Biden only.)

The simple math checks out, although now with updated numbers, it's -789 for Trump and +99,868 for Biden
2020-11-10_20-39-27.jpg

But wait, LESS...
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Trump's Claim that "THE OBSERVERS WERE NOT ALLOWED INTO THE COUNTING ROOMS."

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2020-11-07_14-53-54.jpg

2020-11-07_14-48-17.jpg

Trump has been claiming a bunch of things, but one that seems to be foundational to his argument, and repeated by Giuliani at the Four Season Total Landscaping press conference is the one about observers not being allowed in the counting rooms.

This is, of course, false. And so it has been addressed many times by different outlets. So I thought it would be useful to gather those analyses here:

The best account is the one from the Detroit Free press, which tells of far TOO MANY challengers, of both parties, and disruption of the process coming from some of those challengers.
Article:
"Help needed now," Tweeted a group called Stand Up Michigan. "Go as soon as possible. We are attempting to mount...
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Tales From The Rabbit Hole

  • Episode 52 – Luis Elizondo – UFOs, UAPs, AATIP, and TTSA
    Thu, 11 Mar 2021 15:06:06 PST
    Luis Elizondo is a former senior intelligence official, a disclosure advocate,  a national security expert, and the former director of the Pentagon’s UFO/UAP Program (AATIP). We talk about his work in those capacities and also...
  • Episode 51 – Michael: Post Inauguration QAnon Catchup
    Wed, 10 Mar 2021 12:02:13 PST
    Michael is a “follower” of Q, in what is commonly known as the QAnon conspiracy theory. I first talked to him one year ago, February 2020. We met on Twitter discussing UFOs, but had a...
  • Episode 50 – Alex: Raised by Conspiracy Theorists
    Mon, 08 Mar 2021 21:56:52 PST
    Alex was raised by conspiracy theorists. This makes him different from most people who end up down the rabbit hole in that assuming nefarious plots were going on was never a surprise to him. Indeed,...
  • Episode 49 – Georgina: A QAnon Friend in the UK
    Sat, 06 Mar 2021 21:57:38 PST
    QAnon is a very American conspiracy theory, focussing upon a supposed plan by a mysterious entity named ‘Q’ who was working with Donald Trump to rid the US of a corrupt elite.  But despite this...
  • Episode 48 – Accidentally Dating a Conspiracy Theorist
    Fri, 29 Jan 2021 15:04:14 PST
    My guest this week thought all was well when she started dating a handsome intelligent man. But then a few things he said, particularly about “the Jews” started to seem like something more than just...
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