Mick West

Explained: Chilean Navy "UFO" video - Aerodynamic Contrails, Flight IB6830

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Chilean Navy UFO Metabunk.jpg

If you are short on time, then I made a one minute video explaining this:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bFfuIidCK0

Background: Infrared footage from the Chilean Navy appears to show some kind of flying object that briefly leaves a trail behind it.
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry..._us_586d37bce4b014e7c72ee56b?lciacn1ruwjkmx6r (.", "\.)
At 1:52 pm, while filming the terrain, the technician observed a strange object flying to the left over the ocean. Soon both...
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2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

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The much anticipated 2022 UAP report is a disappointment. It certainly fails to fulfill the wishes of UFO enthusiasts seeking "disclosure" of the government's secret knowledge regarding UFO propulsion and possibly their pilots. But it's also disappointing for people seeking some clarity on if there's actually anything significant behind the story.

The majority of the report details procedural issues, talking about which departments are involved, and plans for better reporting and investigation. That's great, but what about the actual investigations?

The only data there is contained largely on page five, where the numbers are broken down in a way that will certainly be misinterpreted as evidence of large numbers of amazing craft flying around our airspace. It does not say that, but it is unfortunately ambiguous in its language, allowing...
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Cedar Park Lights in the Sky with Strange Reflection [Police Drone]

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Source: Nataliee Gamez on Twitter.
I originally thought this was a plane, because of the configuration of lights. The "triangle" shape seemed just to be reflections.

But then I noticed when it emerged from behind the tree, all the lights except the brightest (and possibly some barely visible) all just fade in, in front of the tree.

Now, the object seems clearly to be behind the tree, based of the light in the air, so that means that all these lights are reflections of the bright light on the right.
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That's strange, but also puzzing is that earlier, on the other side of the tree, there's only one bright light visible.
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I'd geolocated it to the circled region of Cedar Park )later confirmed by Nataliee), and thought it was possibly a plane...
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Searchlight "UAP" in Wisconsin - Flanders Family Christmas Lights

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_Xs2A3-FqY

Frequently Asked Questions:

1) What happened?

On the night of Dec 1, 2022, two people, Ken and Kim, saw some lights moving on some clouds near the town of Fredonia in Wisconsin. They took videos of the light at the same time, but from different locations. Interest in these lights simmered for a while, then Ben Hansen and Brittany Barbieri started an investigation. They were unable to find the source of the lights, and speculated they might be some kind of UAP. They did recognize the lights resembled searchlights or spotlights, but were unable to find any that matched.

2) What are the lights?

The lights appear to be spotlights on the Flanders Family Christmas Lights. A new addition to the locally famous light show, the Flanders installed six powerful spotlights, synchronized to music, that trace out complex patterns. When...
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Jimmy Church's Starlink UFOs in Palmdale

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea8BCl2yVU0

The above is a summary of the findings of this discussion.

Original First post follows:
--------------------------------------------------

A video of what looks like the same thing as multiple pilots have been reporting, but from ground level.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-WDx7byI0k
This was the most incredible night of strange things in the sky I've ever seen... I shot this video with night vision binoculars and my iPhone 12 Pro Max. Dozens of 'objects' started to appear in the sky, due north of my home. You could not see them with the naked eye. The whole thing lasted about 15 minutes. I was out on my 2nd floor patio looking at the stars with the night vision at 1am on the morning of August 14/15th, 2022 when the first few caught...
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Explained: The Navy UFO Videos

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7jcBGLIpus

Today (April 27, 2020) the Navy officially released three videos of UFOs. They are called FLIR, GIMBAL and GOFAST. The internet immediately took this as meaning that aliens are real. But the videos are not actually new. They were internally declassified back in 2017, and immediately released by Tom DeLonge's To The Stars Academy. I started writing about them in December 2017. With the help of others, I quickly arrived at likely explanations (but not precise identifications) for all three videos.

The FLIR video is most likely a distant plane. The video was taken well after the famous encounter with a hypersonic zig-zagging tic-tac by pilots from the NIMITZ. This object doesn't...
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Why "Racetrack" UFOs are mostly Starlink Flares

Debunked: Rumsfeld says $2.3 Trillion missing from the Pentagon

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FY1999 budget vs. supposed missing money FB.png

In 2001, Donald Rumsfeld said 'According to some estimates, we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions.' This has been misinterpreted by many people as $2.3 trillion actually going missing. However, it's really just about the way the money was accounted for.

Rumsfeld is asking for more money to improve the accounting systems because the DOD is working with very outdated systems. This means transactions can't be tracked to acceptable accounting standards. As an example he says:

The technology revolution has transformed organizations across the private sector, but not ours, not fully, not yet. We are, as they say, tangled in our anchor chain. Our financial systems are decades old. According to some estimates, we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions. We cannot share information from floor to floor in this building because it's stored on dozens of technological systems...
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Retired F-18 Pilot Reports 5 UAPs Pacing His Aircraft Over Channel Islands 8-18-22

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[UPDATE - the flashing lights in the video appear to be reflections of the iPhone 13 Pro autofocus system. First suggested by @flarkey]

2022-08-30_10-15-06.jpg



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_s-TDoc7YLY

Interesting case - some very rapidly flashing and seeming erratic motion of some lights seen from a plane. There are several video clips in Ben Hansen's video. I include one clip here that shows the light in the context of both stars and land.


Initially seems like a reflection, but the pilot says the lights moved around the plane.

Update: Attaching two files submitted to MUFON.
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Ukrainian UAP Study: "Observation of Events"

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Article:
The Main Astronomical Observatory of NAS of Ukraine conducts an independent study of UAP also. For UAP observations, we used two meteor stations installed in Kyiv and in the Vinarivka village in the south of the Kyiv region. Observations were performed with colour video cameras in the daytime sky. We have developed a special observation technique, for detecting and evaluating UAP characteristics. According to our data, there are two types of UAP, which we conventionally call: (1) Cosmics, and (2) Phantoms. We note that Cosmics are luminous objects, brighter than the background of the sky. We call these ships names of birds (swift, falcon, eagle). Phantoms are dark objects, with contrast from several to about 50 per cent. We present a broad range of UAPs. We see them everywhere. We observe a significant number of objects whose nature is not clear. Flights of single, group...
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Comparing Petition Signature Rejection Rates to Mail-in Ballot Rejection Rates

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A recall petition and an election are very different things. In order to get a recall of an elected official on the ballot, you have to gather valid signatures of registered voters. You need at least 12% of the number of registered voters who voted in the last election for that office.

The signatures must be in-person (not online), so they are generally gathered in the street. Sometimes it's by passionate volunteers setting up tables, and sometimes it's people with clipboards asking other people in bust public places. As you can imagine, this is not the most rigorous of processes, and that plays out in the percentage of valid signatures:

Article:
The average signature validity rate for the 143 successful petition drives featured in this study is 75.33%. This means that...
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A Korean Linear "UFO" [Reflection]

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I was approached by a Korean UFO investigator with the above video of a UFO spotted by a local witness. My first thought was a Starlink train, but they also included a video from a wider angle:



The video was very dark, but I was able to enhance it in After Effects with a combination of:
  1. Adjusting Levels
  2. "Echo" filter, 15 frames, Echo Operator: "Maximum"
"Maximum" takes the brightest value of a pixel in the last 15 frames, which greatly increases the definition of the edges of bright or dark areas in a noisy video that does not move too much.



I could now see that object seemed to move with the wires attached to the utility pole. I suggested this, but the witness account was of something 500m away, "floating in the sky." I then suggested taking a photo in the daytime from the same location...
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The Global Cross-Hair Enigma that looks like Hair Dryer Burns

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The above two slides are from a talk by famous UFO investigator Jacques Vallee. The talk came up because scientist Garry Nolan (who sometimes works with Vallee) mentioned a later aspect of the case (a star-shaped mark on a photo and a giant UFO nobody noticed) in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson.

But someone in the comments pointed out the likely cause in April 2022:
The Paisley Wave 4 months ago
With all respect for Dr. Vallee, the 'crosshair' marks may have a simple explanation. Search for images of blowdryers and you'll see many, especially the older ones, have metal crosshair-shaped grills at their openings. They get hot and can burn the skin leaving marks corresponding with their...
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When Conspiracists Psychoanalyze

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As a skeptic, I often have an experience that many people will find familiar. I'm talking to someone. They tell me something I know to be wrong. I explain why they are wrong. They refuse to believe me. I continue to try, sometimes over days or weeks. They still won't get it, and sometimes their false belief becomes even stronger. What is wrong with them?

The inability of the true believer to see reason is a frustrating puzzle. One of the most common questions I get in interviews is, "why do people fall for conspiracy theories?" I explain that it's often just a chain of chance, circumstances, and being in an unsettled time in their life with too much spare time. But that's not the "why" the interviewer is looking for. They want to know what is wrong with the conspiracy theorist. Specifically what is mentally wrong with them.

A Desire to Pathologize​


There seems to be a natural desire to pathologize unconventional beliefs...
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WVNY/ABC22 Transparent "Flying Saucer" on Weather Camera — Dark Bokeh?

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[Source: WVNY Twitter]

The shape of this UFO is not entirely uncommon, a horizontal-oriented diamond is sometimes seen when distant lights are out of focus. For example, in this "UFO" video of a plane, which is just the out-of-focus lights - an effect called "bokeh"
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ex...fo-burwell-fen-uk-c-130-landing-lights.11959/
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What's unusual here is that the shape is dark and slowly moving. Is this a case of "dark bokeh"? I'd never really thought about such a thing before, but of course, it's quite possible. Like here:

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I put a fleck...
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Reverse Engineering the ATFLIR to find Range and Temp to/of the Gimbal UAP

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Travis Taylor (the former chief scientist at the Pentagon's UAP Task Force) made a very specific claim on CBS 8 News Now:
From recent calculations I've done, if this device [i.e. Gimbal], whatever this object is, is further away than 8km, then it has to be at the temperature of the melting point of aluminum, and if it's further than 50km, it's at the melting point of steel. That's how hot it would have to be to show up in this way in this sensor. So, it's not a jet that's 50 miles away, and we are getting glare of it
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This comes from work he showed at a recent UFO conference, where he presented an overview of analysis that he claims demonstrates a limit on how far away the Gimbal object can be.

He bases this around a notion of "saturated" that seems poorly defined. Essentially he's using it as a synonym for "overexposed". That means for an individual pixel in an image it's brighter than the maximum value the digital...
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Sitrec - Metabunk's Situation Recreation Tool - Development Discussion

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Sitrec is a Situation Recreation tool that's just starting out in development. It's born from the Gimbal Simulator, and that's the only situation it's recreating - but eventually I'll extend it to GoFast, Nimitz, Aguadilla, Rubber Duck, mysterious DHS video #4, - and hopefully make it available so others can use it on arbitrary videos. You can see (and use) it here:
https://www.metabunk.org/sitrec/

The goal is to allow real-time analysis and visualization of the possible 3D interpretations that might fit a 2D video (and any other data for a particular case) and see from that what is the most likely scenario.

This is very much a work-in-progress, and not really usable for much right now, but I'm starting this discussion thread to track the progress and get feedback and ideas. The initial goal is to replicate and check the work of @Edward...
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Gimbal UFO - A New Analysis

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsEjV8DdSbs

The "Gimbal" UFO is the poster child of modern UFO videos. Leaked in 2017, and officially released in 2019, it's considered by many to show a genuine anomalous craft, exhibiting flight characteristics beyond current human technology.

But is it? There are four observables in the video, four things you can check yourself, that demonstrate that the most likely thing we are looking at is actually a camera artifact. It's probably an infrared glare, hiding the hot object behind it, and rotating only because the camera rotates when tracking the target from left to right.

This does not mean it's not a "UAP", or that it's not unidentified, or that it's not an amazing craft - it just means it's not actually exhibiting any incredible behavior, and so this opens the door to more mundane possibilities, like a distant small jet, just flying away, the...
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The AVRORA Callsign Mystery

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There's an apparent aricraft with the callsign "AVRORA" that shows up on FlightRadar24. It's the subject of several threads on Reddit, but nobody seems to have figured out what it is.

The track initially looks like a standard trans-pacific route, but it's not. There's only two segments, one in the Arizona desert, and one off the coast of the Russian Kamchatka peninsula. There's no data for the path in-between (which is just an interpolated great circle).

The Kamchatka location just shows up as occasional sporadic results, over several days, with very low air speed. 2021-11-10_07-58-54.jpg

The Arizona segment is very different, a steep slope and several tight turns of a 0.5 mile diameter circle at about 26 knots
2021-11-10_08-01-13.jpg
(These tracks are extracted from the raw JSON files using a custom Python script)

What could this be? I think there's a few options, in no great order
  1. ADS-B Spoofing - i.e. not...
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Explained: Tic-Tac Shaped UFO Near Lake Michigan [Plane]

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Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPGmUF6R3CY

This was a relatively straightforward case. The object looked like a Tic-Tac shaped blob. Initially I thought it was fake, but then it quickly became apparent it was a real object (or at least a really good 3D fake).

The low resolution, sharpening, and digital zoom make bright white shapes turn into blobs. Here on the right there the buildings and the racetrack, with the object overlaid at the same resolution.
Four White Building comparison copy.jpg
Sharpening makes it worse at this scale, as it adds dark pixels which make it look bigger. See the gaps between the buildings.

Tracking down the plane was a simple matter as they gave the flight number, date, location, and view direction...
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