Sandor sent me this photo, camera time 5:00AM taken from a few feet west of the laser
It shows the laser bending upwards, and it looks like it does actually hit something on the other side. What is fascinating is that the return light is then split in two, and we get a "reflection" underneath it, just just like with the lights on the right.
Here it is with some reference lines. The red lines show better where it actually would be without refraction.
From a different angle:
Why do you not think we are looking at a reflection from the water surface?