Alien Chess Fiend
Active Member
There's historical precedent for this - all my web searches are failing, but perhaps some fellow brits will remember the story - back in the 80s and 90s there was a "rogue" scientist who was developing models for ultra-long range weather predictions, with the intention of being able to provide information to farmers IIRC, using secretive methods (understandable if you wish it to be the core of your money-making enterprise, but we know it very solar-oriented). However, he did want to (a) statistically prove that his methods had merit, and (b) fund his own research; so he got the Met Office (so actual experts in the field he was playing in) and a bookmaker to evaluate a range of factual, unambiguously measurable, claims about future weather/climate, and assign odds to them. He would then place the bets as he wanted, and, year after year, he would make a small profit.
Sounds like Piers Corbyn - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Corbyn
More in the spirit of holding conpsiracy theorists to account, James Annan did some betting against climate change deniers, e.g. Betting summaryExternal Quote:
Piers Richard Corbyn (born 10 March 1947) is a British weather forecaster, anti-vaccine activist, conspiracy theorist, and former politician
[...]
Following some years of weather prediction as an occupation, he formed WeatherAction, a business, in 1995. WeatherAction is the business through which Corbyn sells his predictions. He has in the past bet on these predictions.
[...]
WeatherAction left the Alternative Investment Market in 1999 after reported losses of £480,000 incurred during its time as a public company
External Quote:To save people having to dredge through my blog and elsewhere for the "betting on climate change" stuff, I'll try to keep this article reasonably up-to-date as a set of links to relevant pages, both my own and those others have written.