Chernobyl during Russia and Ukraine Conflict

Article:
09 Jun 2022

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano this morning reiterated the need for an expert mission to Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, the site of which is under the control of Russian forces.

“The current situation is untenable. Every day it continues; every day that vital maintenance work is delayed; every day that supply chain interruptions cause a break in the delivery of vital equipment; every day the decision-making ability of Ukrainian staff is compromised; every day the independent work and assessments of Ukraine’s regulator are undermined; the risk of an accident or a security breach increases,” Mr Grossi said.

He said IAEA safeguards inspectors must be able to continue to fulfil their regular, indispensable verification activities at the plant in line with Ukraine’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol, and that the transmission of safeguards information to the IAEA had now been interrupted for more than a week.

Mr Grossi said the Ukrainian government at the highest levels has requested that the IAEA send a mission to Zaporizhzhya: “This mission is not a matter of wanting or wishing, it is an obligation on the side of Ukraine and on the side of the IAEA. The IAEA will go to Zaporizhzhya NPP under the legally binding safeguards agreement that Ukraine has with the IAEA.”

Mr Grossi detailed how on 24 February the IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre (IEC) was activated and that on the night and early morning of 3 and 4 March, the physical integrity of the site of the Zaporizhzhya plant was violated. For the first time since 2011, the IEC went to the highest alert level and has remained on alert since with teams on-call 24/7.

Mr Grossi said that military action has compromised the safety of radiation sources; destroyed infrastructure at Ukraine’s Neutron Source and other nuclear facilities; damaged waste repositories; threatened collateral damage at nuclear power plants and has negatively impacted the plants in Chornobyl and Zaporizhzhya, and their staff, in multiple ways.


Article:
12 Jun 2022

The transfer of safeguards data from IAEA systems installed at the ZNPP was cut on 30 May and re-established earlier today. The images recorded by IAEA surveillance cameras during this time period are now being downloaded for review by Agency inspectors to confirm that continuity of knowledge has not been lost.

The interval of physical inventory verifications at NPPs cannot exceed a specified duration. This is particularly critical at two of the units at ZNPP. In addition, these units have been refuelled in recent months and a physical verification of the nuclear material therein is a safeguards pre-requisite before re-starting them.

“If I am not able to dispatch inspectors to perform the required verification at ZNPP, implementation of safeguards in Ukraine will be compromised,” Director General Grossi added.


Article:
24 Jun 2022

The IAEA is aware of recent reports in the media and elsewhere indicating a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian staff at the country’s largest nuclear power plant (NPP), Director General Grossi said.

“The situation at this major nuclear power plant is clearly untenable. We are informed that Ukrainian staff are operating the facility under extremely stressful conditions while the site is under the control of Russian armed forces. The recent reports are very troubling and further deepen my concern about the well-being of personnel there,” he said.


Article:
27 Jun 2022

Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that shelling had caused additional damage to a nuclear research facility in the north-eastern city of Kharkiv on 25 June, but that radiation levels at the site remained normal, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

The facility is designed to conduct research – in areas such as nuclear physics, radiation materials science, biology and chemistry – and radioisotope production for medical applications. Its nuclear assembly is subcritical, and the radioactive inventory is low. Before the conflict, the facility was under commissioning, but it is not currently operating.

The facility has been hit previously during the conflict and it lost its external power supply in March.

In the latest shelling, Ukraine told the IAEA that the facility’s infrastructure, including the cooling system and the diesel generator building, had been damaged. However, the diesel generator remained available if needed, it said.

Measurements carried out with a portable dosimeter on the same day showed that the radiation background in the experimental hall of the Neutron Source building was “within the standard limits”, Ukraine said.


Article:
29 Jun 2022

The International Atomic Energy Agency has once again lost the remote connection to its safeguards surveillance systems installed at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), further underlining the need for the IAEA to go there very soon, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

But the connection was lost again on 25 June, due to a disruption of the facility’s communication systems, Director General Grossi said, citing the assessment of IAEA technicians at its headquarters.
 
ISW reports on Ukrainian propaganda efforts around Zaporizhzhia NPP:
Article:
Ukrainian sources warned on June 29 that Russian forces may be planning a false flag provocation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) to accuse Ukrainian authorities of mishandling nuclear facilities.[6] Ukrainian nuclear operating enterprise Energoatom stated that Russian occupation authorities are planning to throw unsafe objects into the cooling system at the NPP in order to compromise the plant’s cooling mechanisms.[7] Mayor of Enerhodar Dmytro Orlov added that Russian troops have been kidnapping and torturing employees of the NPP to coerce confessions that employees dropped weapons into the cooling systems to sabotage the plant and blame Ukrainian authorities for paying inadequate attention to the management of the NPP.[8]

False flag warnings reported this way often fail to be followed by actual false flag operations. So far, IAEA has not confirmed any of these reports. They may be an attempt to put political pressure on Russia to allow the overdue IAEA visit to the site.
 
Another ISW report:
Article:
Olga Kosharna, an independent expert on nuclear energy, stated on June 30 that Russia’s Rosatom (Russian state-owned nuclear energy corporation) employees have been taking measures at the Zaporizhzhia NPP to potentially divert its energy to the Russian energy grid.[2] Kosharna added that Russian forces have been working in Chonhard (southern Kherson Oblast) to repair the main energy transmission line that runs into Crimea, which Ukrainian forces had destroyed in 2015 following Russia’s seizure of the transmission line after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Representatives of Ukraine’s Ukrenergo electricity transmission operator had stated as recently as late May that it would be physically impossible for Russia to divert Ukrainian electricity to Russia following the destruction of those transmission lines.[3]
 
Article:
For the second time in a month, the IAEA on 25 June lost the connection to its safeguards surveillance systems installed at ZNPP. The IAEA worked with the operator to fix the problem and the transfer of data resumed on 1 July and has continued over the weekend, the Director General said. The previous time, the connection was lost for nearly two weeks, from 30 May until 12 June.

The IAEA has not been able to visit the ZNPP since before the current military conflict in Ukraine.

The IAEA is still experiencing a partial loss of safeguards data transfer from the Chornobyl NPP.
 
Article:
Ukraine informed the IAEA that the shelling had damaged the plant’s external power supply system but that two power lines remained operational, the Director General said. It had also triggered the emergency protection system of one of the plant’s three operating reactors. This unit was disconnected from the grid as a result of Friday’s events, Ukraine said.

Ukraine also informed the IAEA that there had been no damage to the reactors themselves, no radiological release and no reports of injuries. However, it said a nitrogen-oxygen station, which supports plant operations, and an auxiliary building were damaged. Firefighters had quickly extinguished a fire at the nitrogen-oxygen station, but it still needs to be repaired, Ukraine said. The IAEA has also received information about shelling near the spent fuel storage facility.

On Saturday morning, two of the ZNPP’s six units were operating and the radiation situation was normal, Ukraine told the IAEA.

Based on the limited information available, Director General Grossi said IAEA experts had made a preliminary assessment that the current nuclear safety and security situation at the ZNPP seemed stable, with no immediate threat to nuclear safety.
 
Article:
09 Aug 2022

Ukraine has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that a shelling incident on Saturday near the dry spent fuel storage facility at the country’s Zaporizhzya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) caused some damage, but that available radiation measurements continued to show normal levels at the site, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

According to Ukraine, Saturday’s event – which occurred a day after previous shelling damaged the plant’s external power supply system – injured a Ukrainian security guard at the ZNPP. It also damaged walls, a roof and windows in the area of the spent fuel storage facility, as well as communication cables that are part of its radiation control system, with a possible impact on the functioning of three radiation detection sensors, Ukraine told the IAEA. But there was no visible damage to the containers with spent nuclear fuel or to the protective perimeter of the facility.

Article:
11 Aug 2022

The IAEA’s presence at the Zaporizhzya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine would allow the organization to carry out important technical activities in nuclear safety, security and safeguards and at the same time provide a stabilizing influence, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi told the UN Security Council today.

In a session to discuss the situation at the plant, which has been occupied by Russia since March, Mr Grossi reiterated his call for all military action to stop at the site, which came under shelling on 5 and 6 August.

The IAEA has received contradictory information from Ukraine and Russia about the status of the facility, its operation and the damage it sustained, and without a physical presence on site, IAEA experts are unable to corroborate these assessments.

Article:
12 Aug 2022

Ukraine said the latest incident – following last week’s shelling at the ZNPP – took place on Thursday afternoon and caused some damage, including of radiation monitoring equipment at the plant’s fire station. Ukraine initially also reported that a scheduled shift change had to be stopped, but it later told the IAEA that personnel rotation was back to normal. There were no casualties at the plant and its safety systems were not damaged, Ukraine added.


Not from IAEA:
Article:
Russian and Ukrainian authorities again accused each other of shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast on August 13. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces shelled the Zaporizhzhia NPP from positions in Vodyane on the southwestern outskirts of Enerhodar on the Dnipro River, damaging the first block of the pumping station of the Thermal and Underground Communicatons Workshop.[25] Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Ukrainian forces fired nine rounds of unspecified munitions at the NPP from unspecified positions.[26] Geolocated footage posted to Twitter and Telegram on August 13 shows a Russian Pion 203mm artillery system operating roughly 11km from the Zaporizhzhia NPP.[27]
 
There's a spate of Zaporizhzya-related news from the IAEA that I haven't had time to report on, mostly related to the military actions involving the site.

Article:
Ukrainian authorities shut down the last active reactor at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on September 11. Ukrainian nuclear energy agency Energoatom announced that it began to prepare nuclear reactor no. 6 for a cold shutdown after Energoatom restored a backup powerline connecting the ZNPP to the Ukrainian power grid on September 11.[7] Energoatom stated that the reactor had been producing energy at 10-15% of its capability, the bare minimum necessary to sustain ZNPP operations.[8] Energoatom stated that a cold shutdown is the safest state for the ZNPP as frequent Russian shelling continues to damage power lines necessary to operate the plant safely.
 
Catching up on IAEA press releases:

Article:
05 Sep 2022

Also today, four IAEA experts left the ZNPP as planned after several days of essential nuclear safety, security and safeguards work. Two others are staying to maintain a continuing IAEA presence at the site, enabling the Agency to observe the situation there and provide independent assessments.

The six experts arrived at the ZNPP on 1 September as part of a team led by Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi that crossed the frontline to establish the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to Zaporizhzhya (ISAMZ) at the plant in southern Ukraine. The ZNPP is held by Russian forces since early March, but its Ukrainian staff are continuing to operate the plant.


Article:
11 Sep 2022

IAEA experts present at the site of the ZNPP since 1 September – as part of the team led by Director General Grossi to establish the IAEA Support and Assistance Mission to Zaporizhzhya (ISAMZ) at the facility – were informed by senior Ukrainian plant staff that reactor unit 6 was shut down at 03:41am local time (02:41am CET). The other five units were already in cold shutdown and the plant is currently not providing any electricity to households, factories and others relying on it for their needs. The ZNPP is held by Russian forces since early March, but its Ukrainian staff are continuing to operate the plant.

Reactor unit 6 had been providing power to the ZNPP since the plant was disconnected from the grid on 5 September. But operating a reactor at low power is not a sustainable solution for a longer period because it could over time damage key equipment of the nuclear power plant, such as electricity-producing turbines and pumps.


Article:
12 Sep 2022

“This situation is untenable, and we are playing with fire. We cannot continue this situation where we are one step away from a nuclear accident. The safety of Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is hanging by a thread.”


There are various reports of shelling and damage to the plant and to the power lines it depends in, but IAEA does not attribute this damage to a conflict party. They have also not said anything about military equipment stationed at the site, although the urgency Grossi attaches to his calls for a nuclear safety zone there would be in line with that.
 
Article:
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov warned on June 23 that Russia has finished preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).[36] Budanov stated that Russian forces have mined the ZNPP’s cooling pond and have moved vehicles loaded with explosives to four of the six ZNPP power units.[37] As ISW previously assessed, intentional Russian sabotage of the ZNPP resulting in a radiological catastrophe would potentially be more detrimental to Russian forces on the southern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir than to Ukrainian forces on the opposite bank.[38] Russia has frequently invoked threatening rhetoric surrounding the ZNPP in order to dissuade potential Ukrainian counterattacks into occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, and Russian forces may be disseminating information about the mining of the cooling pond and power units to discourage Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. However, Russia demonstrated a willingness to put its own troops in harm's way after the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP), so ISW cannot rule out the potential that Russian forces may be setting conditions to sabotage the ZNPP.

Note that the ZNPP is shut down, so there's no danger of a nuclear meltdown. But there's plenty of radioactive material in the cooling ponds that would be dangerous to humans and nature if released, e.g. by an explosion. In effect, this would constitute a "dirty bomb" or “radiological dispersal device” (RDD).

Russia has accused Ukraine of planning to use dirty bombs before, but that hasn't happened.
Article:
On October 23, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made separate calls to the Defense Ministers of France, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. In them, Shoigu claimed that Ukraine intended to conduct a false-flag operation with a “dirty bomb” in order to accuse Russia of using a weapon of mass destruction. Russian media has echoed the accusation.
 
The claims, as reported by ISW:
Article:
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russian forces and officials are gradually leaving the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) possibly in preparation for an intentional “accident” at the facility.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on June 30 that the Russian contingent at the ZNPP is gradually leaving the facility and that three employees of Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom who managed the facility have recently left for Russian occupied Crimea.[20] The GUR reported that Ukrainian employees at the ZNPP who have signed contracts with Rosatom received instructions that they must evacuate the facility by July 5.[21] The GUR reported that Russian forces are decreasing patrols around the ZNPP itself and in neighboring Enerhodar and that workers at the ZNPP have also received instructions to blame Ukrainian forces in the event of an emergency.[22] ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian units leaving the ZNPP or the immediate area as of June 30. GUR Chief Kyrylo Budanov stated on June 30 that Russian forces have prepared for an artificial disaster at the facility.[23] Ukrainian officials in Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts oversaw emergency preparation exercises for a possible “accident“ at the ZNPP on June 29.[24] Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko reported that Ukrainian officials lack the ability to monitor the ZNPP closely enough to become instantly aware of an “accident” at the ZNPP.[25] The president of Ukrainian nuclear energy operator Energoatom, Petro Kotin, stated that the closest radiation censors on the right (west) bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir would alert Ukrainian officials within a few hours of a potential release of radiation at the ZNPP.[26]

Russian forces remain unlikely to cause an intentional “accident” at the ZNPP, and Russia is likely continuing to use the threat of an intentional radiological incident to attempt to constrain Ukrainian counteroffensive actions and Western support for Ukraine ahead of the upcoming NATO summit.


The report from the IAEA staff at the scene:
Article:
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts have so far found no visible indications of mines or other explosives currently planted at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), but they still need additional access to carry out further such checks at the site, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

The team of IAEA experts were today able to inspect parts of the plant’s cooling system, including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond and the isolation gate of the discharge channel of the nearby Zaporizhzhya Thermal Power Plant (ZTPP). Both this channel and the cooling pond hold reserves of water that remain available for use by the ZNPP despite the destruction of the downstream Kakhovka dam more than three weeks ago.

The IAEA experts have also been conducting regular walkdowns across the six reactor units and other areas around the site. Access to further areas is still expected, including parts of the turbine halls and some parts of the cooling system.

As previously indicated, the IAEA is aware of reports that mines and other explosives have been placed in and around the ZNPP, including mines near the cooling pond.

“We take all such reports very seriously and I have instructed our experts at the site to look into this matter and request the access they need for doing their job. Until now they have not observed any mines or other explosives. Further access will still be needed,” Director General Grossi said.

As Director General Grossi said last week, no mines were observed at the site during his visit to the ZNPP on 15 June, his third in less than ten months. However, the IAEA has been aware of a previous placement of mines outside the plant perimeter, which the Agency has reported about earlier, and also at particular places inside.

The full IAEA update provides a good overview of the state of the power plant. Early in the war, they used to have problems with their remote monitoring equipment, but those had been fixed. Since they're not mentioned in this report, I assume that equipment is still working, and would provide immediate warning of a radioactivity release.

It's not clear to me who is trying to scare whom, but apparently, as of yesterday, the IAEA saw no cause for concern. (They're still concerned over a secure supply of electrical power and cooling water.)
 
Article:
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts present at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) have in recent days and weeks inspected parts of the facility – including some sections of the perimeter of the large cooling pond – and have also conducted regular walkdowns across the site, so far without observing any visible indications of mines or explosives, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

The IAEA experts have requested additional access that is necessary to confirm the absence of mines or explosives at the site, Director General Grossi said. In particular, access to the rooftops of reactor units 3 and 4 is essential, as well as access to parts of the turbine halls and some parts of the cooling system at the plant, he added.


Article:
Ukrainian and Russian officials largely de-escalated their rhetoric regarding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 6. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov stated on July 6 that the danger of a man-made disaster at the ZNPP is “gradually decreasing,” following warnings by various Ukrainian officials on July 4 that Russian forces may have placed objects resembling explosive devices on the roofs of two of the ZNPP’s reactor buildings.[22] First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko and Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky also notably visited the ZNPP on July 6 and posted images reportedly near the plant’s dry nuclear waste storage facility.[23] Kiriyenko and Balitsky noted that the plant continues to “operate normally” under Russian control, thus downplaying previous Russian claims that Ukrainian actions were imminently threatening the safety of the ZNPP.
 

https://news.sky.com/story/new-sate...-ukraines-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-12916418

sorry for the delay (away from the PC for a few days cooling down in the mountains)
On a quasi-related personal note, is it OK to upload photos here, i.e. is all EXIF etc stuff going to be removed, no times,dates,places yes I realize for UFO stuff this is great info but with an ongoing war it aint. If not where?
Also for android whats the best software to wipe this info from any picture I send
 
On a quasi-related personal note, is it OK to upload photos here, i.e. is all EXIF etc stuff going to be removed, no times,dates,places yes I realize for UFO stuff this is great info but with an ongoing war it aint. If not where?
Also for android whats the best software to wipe this info from any picture I send
The forum does not remove exif information. Don't assume that your photos can't be geolocated if you do. See https://alternativeto.net/feature/exif-removal/?platform=android for a list of apps.
 
Re: the objects, they're not camouflaged, so what purpose does that serve?
Has anyond ever successfully destroyed a building by rigging the roof with explosives?
 
Has anyond ever successfully destroyed a building by rigging the roof with explosives?
I think the prediction from Ukrainian sources is that explosives would be planted by the Russians to look like damage from incoming artillery shells, which would give some credibility to a 'false flag' attack by Russia. If so, they have done it very clumsily, but that is not unusual for Russian propaganda. The actual damage to reactors or nuclear waste stores would be done by explosives inside the buildings.
 
I think the prediction from Ukrainian sources is that explosives would be planted by the Russians to look like damage from incoming artillery shells, which would give some credibility to a 'false flag' attack by Russia.
So why do you think the Russians didn't use camouflage? It's like military 101.

Absent evidence, it's much more likely the Russians put some comms gear up there, nicely high up and safe from being shot at by Ukraine. Ukraine would like to find out what it is, and that's why they're applying political pressure.

This also tracks with a second power line being connected after more than a year of a single connection and intermittent outages: that's what I would do if I had installed something I wished to remain powered up.
 
Absent evidence, it's much more likely the Russians put some comms gear up there, nicely high up and safe from being shot at by Ukraine. Ukraine would like to find out what it is, and that's why they're applying political pressure.
That seems like pure speculation, though if true it would support the belief that Russia is deliberately using the power station as a 'shield'. Whereas the suspicion that the Russians are planning a false flag attack would be entirely consistent with their track record, and with their recent claims that Ukraine is planning an attack on Zaporizhzhia.

A leading lawyer (Ben Emmerson) recently remarked, based on his experience of legal actions against Russia

Russia abandoned a policy of plausible deniability and embraced a policy of implausible deniability...They would literally turn up in court and argue something that they knew was false and everybody else knew was false.
(Source: Times, (UK) July 5 2023.)

Emmerson suggests that

Russia’s purpose... was not to argue its case “but to mock and defy democratic institutions designed to promote the international rule of law”.
I think it is simpler: Russia just doesn't care what most of the world thinks. Any old nonsense will satisfy their domestic audience, and in the rest of the world there are still plenty of people ready to give them the benefit of any possible doubt.
 
That seems like pure speculation
So how is that different from claiming it's mines?

So why do you think the Russians didn't use camouflage? It's like military 101. Not hard to do, either.

Whereas the suspicion that the Russians are planning a false flag attack would be entirely consistent with their track record
Please remind me of that track record.
Is it more than "that one time Putin faked a terrorist attack on an apartment building to have a pretense for war"?
 
Do you want me to go back to Katyn?
If you have to go back to 1940 and Josef Stalin to find an example, it can't be much of a track record. I hear the Boston Tea Party was a false flag operation.

Katyn, on the other hand, was a cover‐up, not a false flag. It was done in secret.
 
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So why do you think the Russians didn't use camouflage? It's like military 101. Not hard to do, either.
Theres been so many instances of Russia acting incompetently in this war thus not doing military 101 should not be a surprise.
You could be right in this instance, but don't rule out incompetence on Russias part

A russian false flag of this war is the sim game ukraine nazi stuff, I think you remember as it was laughably bad (theres been a few more similar nazi themed ones in this war which I also remember) also the recent attack on the bridge from a couple of weeks ago (not 100% I grant you, but certainly looked like it), then you have not false flags but you have also all the shenanigans of the missiles where Russia blames Ukraine for something exploding but its near certain they done it themselves. My personal favourite is the missile attack on the building housing the Ukraine POWs (which steven seagal went and examined the remains & concluded yes it was struck by a himars missile, :D I shouldn't laugh but thats just my sense of bad humour, World renown war crime scene pathologist steven seagal (*),

(*) rumour has it, he jujitsu'ed in slow motion a few kherson watermelons to the ground on his way out of the crime scene
bad joke
 
Article:
A false flag is a political or military action carried out with the intention of blaming an opponent for it.

In the early days of Russia's annexation of Crimea, people started to appear on the streets who were dressed and armed exactly like Russian soldiers but without Russian insignia on their uniforms.

The Kremlin insisted they were members of local "self-defence groups" who wanted the territory to be returned from Ukrainian control to Russia.

The sting operation with The Sims was not a false flag, as there was no action carried out by the Russians at the base of it.

"Russia blames Ukraine for something exploding but its near certain they done it themselves" kinda lacks the intention aspect as well.

Pretty sure the attack on the Crimean bridge was a Ukrainian attack?

The Olenivka prison massacre was likely a false flag operation, said to have been carried out by Wagner.
 
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The sting operation with The Sims was not a false flag, as there was no action carried out by the Russians at the base of it.
I'm sure Russian guys pretending to be Ukrainian nazi guys is a false flag. Was this going to result in a specific action? No idea, I guess after it got revealed how absurd it was the Russians decided to drop their original plans, but the intent was there to build a narrative, 'the ukranians are evil nazis'.

Yes you are correct about the Crimean Bridge being an Ukrainian attack, though I was talking about another bridge (but also attacked by Ukraine)
Sorry rereading what I wrote I wasnt clear I wasnt saying this attack was a false flag.
 
I'm sure Russian guys pretending to be Ukrainian nazi guys is a false flag. Was this going to result in a specific action? No idea, I guess after it got revealed how absurd it was the Russians decided to drop their original plans, but the intent was there to build a narrative, 'the ukranians are evil nazis'.
I've replied at https://www.metabunk.org/threads/plot-to-assassinate-vladimir-solovyov.12396/post-293666 , because this is the thread about nuclear risks in Ukraine.
 
If the Russians plan to damage the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, it's tough to speculate on why. (It's still unclear why they destroyed the Kakhovka dam.)

The best-case szenario is that the Russians are with their backs to the wall with repect to personnel and material, and making Zaporizhia oblast a nuclear fallout zone would provide them with a pretext to withdraw their forces without losing face. They might be hoping that the war could end with them occupying Luhansk, Donetsk, and Crimea, since this would be similar to how it was before the invasion.

I don't see any other benefit, as the fallout problems would be worse for the defenders, who need to live in the zone, than the attackers. It might also cost them international support.

If this is indeed the plan, then draining the Kakhovka reservoir might have been playing the long game, with the purpose of impacting the cooling efforts at a breached Zaporizhia NPP.

But with no evidence, we can't know.
 
sorry my head is in fairy land ATM. Mendel I do respect your opinion (more than most), well not most, nearly everyone here
for the next week I will be AWOL
 
sorry my head is in fairy land ATM. Mendel I do respect your opinion (more than most), well not most, nearly everyone here
for the next week I will be AWOL
Thank you. My opinion is just an opinion, especially so when we don't have full information.
Good luck out there!
 
If you have to go back to 1940 and Josef Stalin to find an example, it can't be much of a track record. I hear the Boston Tea Party was a false flag operation.

Katyn, on the other hand, was a cover‐up, not a false flag. It was done in secret.
Katyn is hardly an isolated or merely historic incident. Don't forget that the Soviet Union continued to deny responsibility for Katyn up to around 1990, when many of Russia's current leaders (including Putin) were Soviet officials.

If you limit the term 'false flag' to cases where the false attribution of blame was pre-planned and made public at the time of the incident, then I admit that Katyn was not a 'false flag'. But it seems a bit pedantic to limit it so narrowly. Surely the key point is that a perpetrator is trying to put the blame for his misconduct on someone else, often (though not in the Katyn case) the victim!

If you want a classic case of a Russian (sorry, 'Soviet'!) 'false flag' attack, we can go back to the start of the 'Winter War' against Finland, which began with an NKVD operation to fake a Finnish artillery attack. The Winter War has several parallels with the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The USSR assumed that it would all be over in 2 weeks, and Soviet soldiers were assured that they would be welcomed with open arms as 'liberators'.

The Winter War is an old case, but not an isolated one. This article by a Harvard historian lists others (unfortunately it is partly paywalled).

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/04/false-flag-invasions-are-a-russian-specialty/

More recent examples tend to be controversial, since the relevant Russian archives have not been opened and may never be. But there are strong suspicions that terrorist attacks in Russia itself, that were used as a pretext for war on Chechnya, were planned by Russian agencies. See John Sweeney's book Killer in the Kremlin.

In the broader sense, of attacks or atrocities carried out by Russia but blamed on its enemies, we are spoilt for choice. The best-documented is probably the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, which Russian-backed forces first celebrated as a successful downing of a Ukrainian military plane, only to hastily change their tune and blame it on Ukraine when it turned out to be a civilian airliner. Russia, of course, still denies any involvement.

Btw, I've never seen the Boston Tea Party described as a false flag attack, though historians point out that many of the participants were employed by tea merchants or smugglers who were personally affected by the British Government's measures, which overall reduced the price of tea by allowing direct imports from India. (See Andrew Roberts: George III, p.230-1).
 
If you limit the term 'false flag' to cases where the false attribution of blame was pre-planned and made public at the time of the incident, then I admit that Katyn was not a 'false flag'. But it seems a bit pedantic to limit it so narrowly. Surely the key point is that a perpetrator is trying to put the blame for his misconduct on someone else, often (though not in the Katyn case) the victim!
Scroll up to see the definition I quoted. I don't think it's pedantic to want words to have a meaning. If you want to say something else, use different words, like "cover-up" or "victim-blaming". Or show me that your take is also commonly accepted.
Article:
In an effort to hide their true identities, many of the Sons of Liberty attempted to pass themselves off as Mohawk Indians because if caught for their actions they would have faced severe punishment. Reports from the time describe the participants as dressed as Mohawks or Narragansett Indians.
It's kinda debatable as a false flag, but my point is that century-old events are ill used to inform our understanding of today. Unless you intend to make the point that Russians are somehow inferior humans?

It's also more common to attribute a false flag to the prople who had power when it was committed, not those in power when it came to light.
 
Scroll up to see the definition I quoted. I don't think it's pedantic to want words to have a meaning. If you want to say something else, use different words, like "cover-up" or "victim-blaming". Or show me that your take is also commonly accepted.
Article:
In an effort to hide their true identities, many of the Sons of Liberty attempted to pass themselves off as Mohawk Indians because if caught for their actions they would have faced severe punishment. Reports from the time describe the participants as dressed as Mohawks or Narragansett Indians.
It's kinda debatable as a false flag, but my point is that century-old events are ill used to inform our understanding of today. Unless you intend to make the point that Russians are somehow inferior humans?

It's also more common to attribute a false flag to the prople who had power when it was committed, not those in power when it came to light.
Nobody thinks the Sons of Liberty wanted to 'pass themselves off' as Mohawk Indians. They just wanted to disguise their identity.
 
I don't think it's pedantic to want words to have a meaning
Neither do I, but the expression 'false flag' in itself could have many meanings. It was originally used for pirate ships and others who used false flags to gain a tactical advantage by sneaking up on an enemy. More recently, 'false flag attack' seems to be mainly used with the quite narrow meaning you quote, but that does not exclude other uses. The Wiki article on 'False Flag' lists many 20th century examples which come closer to the original piratical usage. As for Katyn, it is hardly adequate to refer simply to a cover-up: the Soviet propaganda version was a cover-up aimed specifically at pinning the blame on Germany, involving faked documents and other manipulations of evidence. If we don't have a word for this, perhaps we should.
 
It's kinda debatable as a false flag, but my point is that century-old events are ill used to inform our understanding of today. Unless you intend to make the point that Russians are somehow inferior humans?
I don't know how you draw that inference. I certainly wasn't implying that Russians are somehow inferior humans. I do think that the Russians have been very unlucky with their history, though not as unlucky as some of their neighbours (e.g. Poland). The Bolshevik coup of 1917 was arguably the greatest disaster of 20th century history, especially for Russia, perhaps even more than the rise of Hitler, since the 'Bolshevik menace' was one of the preconditions for Hitler's success. It is sometimes said that people get the government they deserve, but that can hardly apply when a totalitarian regime is forced upon them. Whether the Russians of today should share the guilt for the Putin regime's numerous internal and external crimes is more debatable.
 
I don't know how you draw that inference.
I don't. I just don't understand why you argue that what Stalin did in the 1940s is relevant today.
It's like you're arguing that Germans are antisemites today because "look what Hitler did".
 
I don't. I just don't understand why you argue that what Stalin did in the 1940s is relevant today.
It's like you're arguing that Germans are antisemites today because "look what Hitler did".
Germany has very publicly and vigorously renounced its anti-semitic past, and made reparations to Jews and to some of the other people affected by its actions under Hitler. I cannot judge how sincere this is, but at least on the surface it is clear enough.

Russia's attitude to its Soviet past is much more ambivalent. In the 1950s Khrushchev denounced some aspects of Stalinism, and the Gulag system was officially closed, but much of the apparatus of oppression remained in place, in the USSR and of course in its puppet states like East Germany. The KGB replaced the NKVD, then the FSB replaced the KGB, but how much has really changed?

Stalin himself remains widely and openly admired in Russia, and Putin himself has encouraged Stalin's rehabilitation. See this article on the opening of a 'Stalin Center' in the Russian town of Bor:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-s-new-stalin-center-evokes-pride-revulsion-n1267521

In any case, the point at issue is the long history of Russia's tendency to make false claims, and to fabricate evidence, to deny responsibility for its own misdeeds, and in this context there is a continuity from Stalin's time to the present day.
 
deny responsibility for its own misdeeds
Article:
Russia's lower house of parliament has condemned Joseph Stalin by name for the mass execution of Poles at Katyn during World War II.

The Duma declared that the Soviet dictator and other Soviet officials had ordered the "Katyn crime" in 1940.

The statement, which comes weeks before a Russian presidential visit to Poland, was welcomed in Warsaw.

Russian leaders have publicly expressed regret for the massacre and this year saw the official online publication, by order of Mr Medvedev, of key documents proving the guilt of Stalin and his secret police chief Lavrenty Beria.

I feel you've only managed to claim a "continuity" by widening the scope so much that your description could well apply to some beacons of democracy.
but how much has really changed?
That's really cheap rhetoric. Comparing Russia in 1941 to Russia in 2023, you should really ask what has stayed the same.

And the fact remains that the white boxes on the reactor roof are only evidence of a "false flag" if you're willing to assume that these are explosives with no evidence, and that Russia intends to broadcast its false flag operation to the world by not camouflaging them. (I dare you find white boxes in any military outfit!) The claim feels likely to be misinformation here, benefiting Ukraine by building Russia up to be nuclear threat ahead of the NATO summit.

Your best evidence in favor of the claim is Josef Stalin?
 
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Thank you. My opinion is just an opinion, especially so when we don't have full information.
Good luck out there!
Cheers, just had an interesting Convo with a Hungarian woman from 60 years old. She spoke good English and Russian cause she was a Russian/English teacher. We spoke for more than 2 hours on the train. I believe it's the most she ever talked as she is very shy, I guess me being foreign lossend her lips, but it was odd, smart woman but very pro Putin, but her opinion of Putin has changed in the last 3 months. It just took over a year of war!

But David is correct, a lot of Russians don't want to acknowledge that Stalin was a terrible man, unlike the Germans wrt Hitler
 
Valid point, actually I think I'll ask some people what they think of him
I've asked a few ppl, but none heard of him so far, maybe it's like Charles Lindenberg or limberg, iirc once was the most famous person in the USA and a famous nazi supporter. But if you ask ppl on the street today in the US who he was they would have no clue.

Currently in kharkiv, couple of big explosions yesterday around 6.30pm. I guess missiles sounded within 5km. Also occasionally artillery I can hear but a long ways aways.

Edit. I think it was on these forums, someone mentioned something like it can't be an emergency no one is running etc. I said I've seen ppl behave like this. Well saw it again last night, I was in the big park here where it seemed like most of kharkiv was, with each explosion I look up and look around, but nearly everyone doesn't even flinch, just carrying on with their conversations. Strange no curiousity of I wonder where that landed, nothing, Wierd.
 
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That's really cheap rhetoric. Comparing Russia in 1941 to Russia in 2023, you should really ask what has stayed the same.
Quite a lot really. Still invades its neighbours. Still imprisons or assassinates political opponents, at home and abroad (Litvinenko, Skripal). Still no free press or free speech. Still allows its soldiers to rape women without fear of retribution. Still routinely spews out absurd propaganda. Still has dangerous windows.

I am being a bit unfair in implying that these things have 'stayed the same'. Under Gorbachev and Yeltsin there was much improvement, but under Putin Russia has regressed towards totalitarianism.

There is also a difference of scale. Stalin had many thousands of opponents killed. Putin maybe a few hundred, tops. But give him time.

Edit: someone disagrees. Oh, wait, it's Mendel. It would be nice to know which of my examples he disagrees with.
 
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