JeffreyNotGeoffrey
Active Member
Poe's law occasionally pops up with even the best of us. I think smilies need to just pop up automatically if you are in a good mood when you post. 
A prediction from theory
- Thread starter qed
- Start date
qed
Senior Member
I will be following this advice, thank you.
qed
Senior Member
I do appreciate that such an event does not prove a conspiracy. It will, of course, cause a conspiracy theory.
There is still, however, a statistical norm of a person in such a situation killing themselves. If it happens, when determining how improbable the sequence of events is, I will multiply that probability with the statistical norm of the FBI killing someone in custody (what would the latter be, 1/10?). The killing of the brother I am simply putting down to American anger.
qed
Senior Member
No I am not. You don't understand statistics.
Consider two dice, one normal, and one biased towards 6.
I pick one dice at random and throw it twice. We get six and then six again.
I bet you that if I throw six again, the dice in question is the biased one.
Would you take the bet? That is, would you bet that the dice is in fact the the normal one?
The issue is the probability of a sequence of improbable events. A sequence of unusual events is unlikely.
ColtCabana
Senior Member
I have no statistics to hand or evidence upon which to base this remark, my intuition leads me to assume guilty parties are more likely to commit suicide in prison than innocent parties. An innocent party has hope and will want a chance to clear their name. Doesn't help work this one out though. It's quite paradoxical. I can tell you that my most favourite cousin was beaten by police, questioned by Special Branch, and - shall I say - suicided in a high security cell. Coroner returned a verdict of suicide but the family will always have doubts, particularly as he had cuts and bruises around the neck which were a sign of struggle. He was fighting for his life. Call it a change of mind on his own behalf, half way through the act, or call it cold blooded murder.
If the Boston suspect is thoroughly guilty I believe he'd be more likely to kill himself. If he is innocent I believe he'd be more likely to be 'suicided'. In either event the coroner will return suicide as the reason for death, and no one will ever know - that's the 'neat' and paradoxical thing about death in custody.
If the Boston suspect is thoroughly guilty I believe he'd be more likely to kill himself. If he is innocent I believe he'd be more likely to be 'suicided'. In either event the coroner will return suicide as the reason for death, and no one will ever know - that's the 'neat' and paradoxical thing about death in custody.
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David Fraser
Senior Member.
I disagree. It could be looked at the opposite way. There are many instances of people on remand attempting suicide only for later to be found not guilty. Similar when there have been miscarriages of justice. To profess your innocence often means you give up your chances of parole. An innocent person may be more likely to despair especially when faced with the shit conditions on remand.
Noblelox
Member
Sorry! Couldn't resist the quote
. I empathise with your deprived urban storey all be it from a long time white biker dude perspective. In that sub culture I've rode and been in the company of some "rum types." I personally have, as friends, a few thieves an attempted rapist (drunk twat) and four murderers. One was a drug dealer who blew a kids liver out with a scatter blaster over a 500 quide debt...ffs. One was "prospecting" in a gang who drove the motor at a "manslaughter". The other two were brothers in the same gang who head shot that All England Hells Angel on his way home from the Bull Dog Bash. Although, through lack of evidence, the actual shooter of the four convicted was never identified I've got a pretty good idea of who it was. I'm sure the police have too but logic and assumptions don't make evidence. What I'm getting at is, like me, you side stepped the gang cultures even though it was around you. Something you had to deal with and accept as part of the environment. I can see from your writing, somethig I personally struggle with, your an intelligent guy and like myself could have easily been drawn into a life that could have risked ones liberty.
Like myself, in an environment like that, I'm sure your no innocent but it sure makes for a great scholarship in the university of life
JeffreyNotGeoffrey
Active Member
Boodles, when you hang yourself from a short distance, the method of death is strangulation, not having one's neck snapped which is more instantaneous. As a result of the method of death being slower, people have time to react. Some may regret the finality of the choice and try to stop it. More often natural reflexes take hold, and you try to fight the cord/belt/rope/whatever. Nail marks at the throat are very consistent with that. Unless you restrain yourself physically, which honestly looks worse to the untrained eye.
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qed
Senior Member
I was being ironic
. The lower the probability, the less the likelihood that this death in FBI custody was random.
qed
Senior Member
Different die represent different competing hypotheses. The jury will be considering at least two.
ColtCabana
Senior Member
qed
Senior Member
I am one of those members who tend to discount eyewitness testimony, due to its notorious unreliability.
ColtCabana
Senior Member
I asked him about the blood and whether or not people who thought it was paint were justified in thinking that. Here is his response;
"[My first name], it is so easy for some people to sit behind a computer screen and guess what happened. That was real blood. I spent literally fifteen straight hours addressing wounds and cleaning up those who were hurt from the blasts, including some that have been labeled "crisis actors" by unstable conspiracy theorists. If there was fake blood or paint, somebody in the hospital would have told someone. It's as simple as that. I know real blood. I'm trained. They are not. That was real blood."
We're not talking an eyewitness who was there for a brief moment; we're talking an hour eyewitness who worked with your alleged "fake blood" for hours.
Cairenn
Senior Member.
There is difference in 'eye witness' reports. Especially when you are dealing with experts. Say my best friend both witness a dog attack on a child. She might report that it was a large black dog, if someone asked her if it was pit, she might well say, "It could have been'. Whereas, I would might ID the same dog as lab, rottie, chow cross. I would notice things like the shape of the ears, the tail and how it was carried, whether or not it had any brown on it.
Where are there any eyewitness observers that claim it was paint? Remember that few folks, outside of medical profession have seen real blood. We see fake blood on TV and in the movies.
Where are there any eyewitness observers that claim it was paint? Remember that few folks, outside of medical profession have seen real blood. We see fake blood on TV and in the movies.
Noblelox
Member
When it comes to eyewitness statements each witness tells the storey in a different way. However, the narrative remains the same...." a dog bit a child several times" and "a big dog attacked a child". Both said differently but describing the exact same thing. Coincidentally, if both witness statements are verbatim it's a sign of collusion and usually a lie.... just saying
Alhazred The Sane
Senior Member.
Surely anyone who has ever been cut has seen real blood?
ColtCabana
Senior Member
David Fraser
Senior Member.
Right so the trial is due to start today. Have any moves been made yet by the military to claim jurisdiction? TPTB only have a few months to kill him now. Oh the tension is killing me ;-)
Where did you get that the trial starts today?
David Fraser
Senior Member.
Well it's a case conference with the judge. Here that would be the start of the trial. Last opportunity (if any was there) for TPTB to step in
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/us-usa-explosions-boston-idUSBRE98M0KE20130923
Yes but unless they were part of the medical profession, would they be able to actually be sure it was blood, i.e. was it 'official'?
ColtCabana
Senior Member
You are comparing apples and oranges here. No one on the conspiracy side has addressed my friend who says it was real blood. He helped victims and saw them running into the hospital, including one that has been featured in a lot of photos that are scrutinized by the conspiracy theorists has "fake." What's the excuse from the conspiracy theorists here?
I was only replying in the context of Cairenns post that "few folks, outside of medical profession have seen real blood." I am not suggesting it was fake blood at Boston, merely noting the extremes that some go to to impugn evidence from witnesses who do not tow the official line... but I only say that in general terms and not in relation to Boston as I am not aware of any actual witnesses who said it was fake blood.
JeffreyNotGeoffrey
Active Member
Well look before you leap. That is what this entire thread has been about. Or are you such a contrarian that you feel you need to stick up for a completely untenable position. I'll say again, what paint do you know has the viscosity of blood, the same color as blood when wet, AND dries to a maroon-ish brown as blood does? I mean the OP stated as such. Did you not see half his posts?
qed
Senior Member
Everyone is (probably) going to get the opportunity to humiliate me in the near future. Remember that I said that if this trial runs to completion and a guilty verdict if found, I will not accept the claim that there was a conspiracy in Boston. For me, and many others I hope, the conspiracy theory will be debunked.
I have found a way by which we can avoid debating the issue for now. As Mike has pointed out, even discussing it is libelous. So lets not for now. This is what respected members have advised me.
You, unlike the rest of us, know 100% that I am wrong. So you know you will be getting a shot at me. Just be patient
.
ColtCabana
Senior Member
Everyone is (probably) going to get the opportunity to humiliate me in the near future. Remember that I said that if this trial runs to completion and a guilty verdict if found, I will not accept the claim that there was a conspiracy in Boston. For me, and many others I hope, the conspiracy theory will be debunked.
I have found a way by which we can avoid debating the issue for now. As Mike has pointed out, even discussing it is libelous. So lets not for now. This is what respected members have advised me.
You, unlike the rest of us, know 100% that I am wrong. So you know you will be getting a shot at me. Just be patient
This has nothing to do with the trial. This has to do with your comment that you are discounting my friends first-hand encounter with the injured.
Perhaps you should take your own advice about looking and leaping. The OP did not state as much. The OP if you read it was about the trial being changed to a military style or secret or some such like or Dzhokhar dying before the end.
Blood wasn't even mentioned until post 6 or 7.
JeffreyNotGeoffrey
Active Member
Oh so you did read it! Then you saw all his erroneous claims and how they were efficiently debunked with no effort. Bravo.
I don't miss much. I wouldn't have my super status if I did
Melbury's Brick
Senior Member.
Josh Heuer
Active Member
Why do you expect anyone to know that answer? Or are you 'just asking questions?'
qed
Senior Member
I have taken some time to think about this question. I will first counter and then refine your question.
Counter
- They did try!
and then
He has multiple gunshot wounds, the most severe of which appears to have entered through the left side inside of his mouth and exited the left face, lower face. This was a high-powered injury that has resulted in skull-base fracture, with injuries to the middle ear, the skull base, the lateral portion of the C1 vertebrae [sic], with a significant soft-tissue injury, as well as injury to the pharynx, the mouth, and a small vascular injury that’s been treated.
- Recall that his brother was brutally killed, his friend killed in FBI custody, and the original suspect found floating dead in the Boston river.
- Why was Dhzhorkar not killed in the Beth Israel hospital? (This is the same hospital that us skeptics claim covered up "fake" amputations, etc.)
ColtCabana
Senior Member
Bruno D.
Senior Member.
So please take the time to think about these other questions:
Why would "they" hire dozens of actors and risk jeopardizing the whole conspiracy operation if "they" did any little mistake instead of simply exploding two amateur bombs and sacrificing a bunch of innocents for the greater good? Were "they" actually worried about the innocent civilians wellness and hired those stunt actors in order to guarantee that no innocents were hurt? Regarding planning and costs, which of the options is better and cheaper?
Regarding killing the younger brother, "they" planned and executed a f**ing complex plan. If "they" wanted someone dead, it would happen. There would be no trying, only accomplishing.
deirdre
Senior Member.
- His brother wasn't brutally killed. don't exaggerate. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424127887324493704578432030609754740
as far as the young man in the river he was missing a full month before the Bombing. http://www.wrcbtv.com/story/22076271/student-falsely-identified-as-boston-bombing-suspect-found-dead-in-river- edit:The authorities used dental records to identify the body as Mr. Tripathi’s. They did not immediately determine the cause of his death, but said his body had been in the water for some time.
and it was a bunch of college kids that confused him for the pics of dzorkah. He was never an 'original suspect'. Your statements aren't facts, they are opinion or rumor. Give us some links (evidence) for those statements.
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qed
Senior Member
Boston.com
Seeing a photo of one of the Marathon bombing suspects dead was cathartic, said one law enforcement official who saw the picture.
Passing it around was a rare chance “to revel” while other officers searched for Tsarnaev’s brother, Dzhokhar, the official said. “Mission accomplished. We’re halfway there. Justice is served.”
qed
Senior Member
You are correct and I was wrong. He was never an 'original suspect'.
Thank you for calling me on this.
Josh Heuer
Active Member
The Tsarnaev brothers were the only 2 suspects in this case publicly announced by the FBI. Any other suspects were from Internet communities.
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