Hey everyone
Statement: This is only a theory. I don't want to discredit anyone and I don't rule out any other explanations. I myself think this theory would be just as crazy, if true, as Zorg from Uranus. If anyone could point at some things that I have misinterpreted or technical impossibilities, please let me know! I actually hope I'm wrong.
I build my theory based upon the "Tic Tac Executive Report" by putting several accounts of what happened into perspective and sync the timeline with the provided information.
English isn't my main language so I apologize in advance for some rough text phrasing.
TLDR:
There were actually three FA18 in the same spot at the same time. The first FA18 of Douglas Kurth should have left before Fravor arrived but decided to check out the disturbance. Douglas was at a lower altitude than Fravor. Douglas did not see an object, looked back to witness the disturbance cease and took off to cap point. Fravor at a higher altitude saw the disturbance and a tic tac shaped object without wings and about the size of his FA18 on top of it. He did a maneuver and descended and noticed the tic tac ascending. The tic tac took off, Fravor couldnt find the disturbance anymore. The tic tac later re-appeared at CAP point. I have explanations for all raised questions at the end of this post.
Timeline of USMC Douglas "Cheeks" Kurth
- The USS Princeton detected anomalous radar signatures, over the same location, on multiple occasions, over the period of multiple days after receiving a radar upgrade.
- The meteorological officer (METOC) onboard the USS Princeton handed out a briefing discussing a weather phenomenon that includes the building of ice particles that could return false radar tracks. Based on various accounts "no one" believed this to be the leading cause.
- On Nov 14 Kevin Day decided to task jets to intercept and ID the AAV
- USMC Douglas Kurth launched from the USS Nimitz to conduct a functional check flight of a single seated FA18 that had recently completed significant maintenance. After 30 min into his flight, he was tasked to check out the AAV location.
- While en route at appx 500 knots groundspeed at medium altitude (15-25000 feet) he gained radar contact of what he believed to be two FA18 that were approaching the AAV. There was no other traffic on the radar. The controller remained him to stay above 10000 feet.
- As he approached he could see a water disturbance when his controller told him to "skip it" and return to his operating area. Since he was close he elected to fly over the water disturbance and see what was causing it. It was the only white water disturbance on the ocean and the visibility was high. He overflew the disturbance, without seeing an object and turned back to north west.
- As he flew away he "looked back" could see the disturbance clearing. He never saw the other FA18. He could never see a source for the disturbance below, above or on the surface.
Parallel Timeline of CMD Fravor & Lt DIetrich
- FASTEAGLE 01 + 02 already airborne got tasked by the USS Princeton to check out the location of the AAV
- CDR Fravor descended to 20-24000 feet and proceeded to the contact. He had no FLIR equipped, his radar was clear and showed no objects. They attempted to acquire the object visually at merge plot.
- CDR Fravor stated the first visual was the disturbance on the water, as he scanned the area he gained visual on the object above the disturbance.
- At this point Fravor detached his wingman FASTEAGLE 02 which held at 20000 feet.
- Fravor descended to 12-16000 feet.
- Fravor stated the object "held like a Harrier" (hovering). His co-pilots report differs from Fravor, stating the object was at appx 500-1000 feet with a speed of 500 knots
- Fravor described it as oblong, white in color and appx 43 feet in size (about the size of his FA18 as he later said in interviews. His estimated distance to the object at this point was appx 14000 feet witch equals 4.3 kilometers!)
- Fravor tried a maneuver to close in with a descent. As he closed in he described it as if the object "recognized us", because it realigned its axis towards them. At this point according to Fravor, the disturbance in the water ceased!
- The object ascended quickly and took off "at supersonic speed" and reappeared at CAP point
What I believed happened:
What if Fravor saw Douglas Kurth' FA18??? Take the disturbance in the water as a reference for time and look where they were based on their testimonies altitude.
They had no radio contact together (the report somewhere stated they had different coms).
Fravor and Dietrich were visible on Kurths radar, instead of "skipping it" Kurth decided to descend and fly over the disturbance to check it out.
At this time Fravor was on top of him and at least 5km / 15000 feet away (possibly more if you add the separation in longitude).
Fravor closed in when Kurth decided to leave AT THE VERY MOMENT WHEN BOTH REPORTED THE DISTURBANCE TO CEASE!
Kurth looked back at the water when he took off! Kurth never saw a tic tac and never visually saw the FA18, yet we have very strong evidence based on the disturbance behavior he was there at the exact same time! An FA18 can fly supersonic! Guess where Kurth was returning back to and where the tic tac went? CAP POINT!
Obvious Q&A:
How can a "highly trained observer and flight instructor" misinterpret an FA18 for a tic tac?
There are countless videos all over the internet misinterpreting a plane for a flying tic tac.
The distance between the observer and the plane in these cases is often appx 30'000 feet (avg. travel altitude of commercial airliners).
When Fravor saw the object, he was appx. 14'000 feet away but an FA18 is smaller than a commercial airliner, so the effect could be the same.
Fravor did not expect another FA18. There is no record of someone telling him about Kurth. Fravor had no radar signals and Fravor could not hear the radio coms between Kurth and his air controller. Sunlight reflections are very likely on a "sunny, beautiful day". I believe we can also assume the likelihood of mist above the disturbance, interacting with sunlight and blurring the object.
What caused the radar signals & disturbance?
The USS Princeton already handed out a briefing discussing a possible weather phenomenon.
Sea smoke, sea devils and tropical cyclones are known phenomena and the north-eastern pacific is especially known for it.
What could have happened here is the beginning of such an event, without actually happening. The mixture of hot and cold air with saltwater could also explain lower temperature and building of ice particles at various altitudes. The FA18 flying through the air could have resolved the disturbance (temporarely?).
Another explanation could be a submarine deploying classified spy drones to test the crews reaction and how they appear on the freshly upgraded radar.
This could have been a secret test before using them against Iran in the same month (November 2004, Arak Nuclear Facility).
This would explain the multiple USS Princeton witnesses accounts of confiscated data tapes and the signing of NDA.
Why would no one say something about it?
At this point, I can only purely speculate.
Fravor was described as being overly excited when he saw the UAP (by Kevin Day who was his air controller).
He was 100% convinced he had just chased an UFO. He was made fun of at the ship initially but things changed when Underwood actually recorded something they believed to be the tic tac.
Kurth never saw the other FA18, I am very confident that both of them had no clue what happened at this time.
When they found out later, Kurth stayed quiet because he almost caused a mid-air collision because he didnt followed orders to "pull it" but decided to stay and check out the disturbance.
Fravor was now the famous UFO chaser, he appeared on TV, podcasts, news shows, documentaries. He always seemed to be extremely overconfident in his testimony leaving absolutely zero room for human error. I highly doubt he would ever have realized what really happened but even if, there is no way on earth of him admitting how his famous UFO was a friendly, misinterpreted FA18. He would look like an absolute idiot.
Dietrich was a junior at this time. Very inexperienced by her own account, she said she was very nervous at this time and was at 20 to 25k feet altitude when everything happened. The first time she ever said something publicly was on the 60min bit iirc? To me she seemed uncomfortable, barely described the object at all and made sure to state it was a long time ago and her memory could be flawed. After this show she reappeared on CNN and this was the first time I have ever heard her describing what happened. She used the exact same words as Fravor, which I believe is just replacing Fravors account with her own vague memory.
Fravors own co-pilot already experienced something different according to the report. I like to believe even if he recognized the object as an FA18, he would stay quite and protect his friend. We experience this quite often in military units, for example Marcus Luttrells overexaggerated story of what happened in "Lone Survivor" to make his friends appear more heroic, while the official report suggests a way less heroic event.
They must have seen the three FA18 on radar?
That's actually something that puzzled me a lot. I have two ideas but must state I have absolutely zero knowledge in how a radar works. So maybe someone with actual knowledge could tell me if this is plausible or impossible.
1. Kurth said he could see the two FA18 on his radar. Fravor said his radar was clear. Is there a possibility because of altitude or simply not checking at the right time that Fravor really couldnt see the FA18? Is it possible that the just heavily maintenanced FA18 was lacking a transponder OR had one installed but disabled by accident (it was a check flight) OR activated but not set to "friendly"? Could this have resulted in an unknown track on the USS Princetons radar, not identifiable as a friendly jet?
2. This could be a reason on its own but becomes way more likely if the transponder theory could be true. The situation in the air was described as quite chaotic by Kevin Day in Mick's interview iirc. What if Fravors encounter, the overall anxiety of everyone involved and the amount of airtraffic to be guided simply resulted in not realizing where Kurth was at this time? I heard how "merge plot" is an effect where the radar cant distinguish between multiple signals at the same spot, could Kurth just have been "hidden" by Fravors radar track? Could this be a plausible - even if unlikely - scenario?
Report: https://thevault.tothestarsacademy.com/tictacreport
Statement: This is only a theory. I don't want to discredit anyone and I don't rule out any other explanations. I myself think this theory would be just as crazy, if true, as Zorg from Uranus. If anyone could point at some things that I have misinterpreted or technical impossibilities, please let me know! I actually hope I'm wrong.
I build my theory based upon the "Tic Tac Executive Report" by putting several accounts of what happened into perspective and sync the timeline with the provided information.
English isn't my main language so I apologize in advance for some rough text phrasing.
TLDR:
There were actually three FA18 in the same spot at the same time. The first FA18 of Douglas Kurth should have left before Fravor arrived but decided to check out the disturbance. Douglas was at a lower altitude than Fravor. Douglas did not see an object, looked back to witness the disturbance cease and took off to cap point. Fravor at a higher altitude saw the disturbance and a tic tac shaped object without wings and about the size of his FA18 on top of it. He did a maneuver and descended and noticed the tic tac ascending. The tic tac took off, Fravor couldnt find the disturbance anymore. The tic tac later re-appeared at CAP point. I have explanations for all raised questions at the end of this post.
Timeline of USMC Douglas "Cheeks" Kurth
- The USS Princeton detected anomalous radar signatures, over the same location, on multiple occasions, over the period of multiple days after receiving a radar upgrade.
- The meteorological officer (METOC) onboard the USS Princeton handed out a briefing discussing a weather phenomenon that includes the building of ice particles that could return false radar tracks. Based on various accounts "no one" believed this to be the leading cause.
- On Nov 14 Kevin Day decided to task jets to intercept and ID the AAV
- USMC Douglas Kurth launched from the USS Nimitz to conduct a functional check flight of a single seated FA18 that had recently completed significant maintenance. After 30 min into his flight, he was tasked to check out the AAV location.
- While en route at appx 500 knots groundspeed at medium altitude (15-25000 feet) he gained radar contact of what he believed to be two FA18 that were approaching the AAV. There was no other traffic on the radar. The controller remained him to stay above 10000 feet.
- As he approached he could see a water disturbance when his controller told him to "skip it" and return to his operating area. Since he was close he elected to fly over the water disturbance and see what was causing it. It was the only white water disturbance on the ocean and the visibility was high. He overflew the disturbance, without seeing an object and turned back to north west.
- As he flew away he "looked back" could see the disturbance clearing. He never saw the other FA18. He could never see a source for the disturbance below, above or on the surface.
Parallel Timeline of CMD Fravor & Lt DIetrich
- FASTEAGLE 01 + 02 already airborne got tasked by the USS Princeton to check out the location of the AAV
- CDR Fravor descended to 20-24000 feet and proceeded to the contact. He had no FLIR equipped, his radar was clear and showed no objects. They attempted to acquire the object visually at merge plot.
- CDR Fravor stated the first visual was the disturbance on the water, as he scanned the area he gained visual on the object above the disturbance.
- At this point Fravor detached his wingman FASTEAGLE 02 which held at 20000 feet.
- Fravor descended to 12-16000 feet.
- Fravor stated the object "held like a Harrier" (hovering). His co-pilots report differs from Fravor, stating the object was at appx 500-1000 feet with a speed of 500 knots
- Fravor described it as oblong, white in color and appx 43 feet in size (about the size of his FA18 as he later said in interviews. His estimated distance to the object at this point was appx 14000 feet witch equals 4.3 kilometers!)
- Fravor tried a maneuver to close in with a descent. As he closed in he described it as if the object "recognized us", because it realigned its axis towards them. At this point according to Fravor, the disturbance in the water ceased!
- The object ascended quickly and took off "at supersonic speed" and reappeared at CAP point
What I believed happened:
What if Fravor saw Douglas Kurth' FA18??? Take the disturbance in the water as a reference for time and look where they were based on their testimonies altitude.
They had no radio contact together (the report somewhere stated they had different coms).
Fravor and Dietrich were visible on Kurths radar, instead of "skipping it" Kurth decided to descend and fly over the disturbance to check it out.
At this time Fravor was on top of him and at least 5km / 15000 feet away (possibly more if you add the separation in longitude).
Fravor closed in when Kurth decided to leave AT THE VERY MOMENT WHEN BOTH REPORTED THE DISTURBANCE TO CEASE!
Kurth looked back at the water when he took off! Kurth never saw a tic tac and never visually saw the FA18, yet we have very strong evidence based on the disturbance behavior he was there at the exact same time! An FA18 can fly supersonic! Guess where Kurth was returning back to and where the tic tac went? CAP POINT!
Obvious Q&A:
How can a "highly trained observer and flight instructor" misinterpret an FA18 for a tic tac?
There are countless videos all over the internet misinterpreting a plane for a flying tic tac.
The distance between the observer and the plane in these cases is often appx 30'000 feet (avg. travel altitude of commercial airliners).
When Fravor saw the object, he was appx. 14'000 feet away but an FA18 is smaller than a commercial airliner, so the effect could be the same.
Fravor did not expect another FA18. There is no record of someone telling him about Kurth. Fravor had no radar signals and Fravor could not hear the radio coms between Kurth and his air controller. Sunlight reflections are very likely on a "sunny, beautiful day". I believe we can also assume the likelihood of mist above the disturbance, interacting with sunlight and blurring the object.
What caused the radar signals & disturbance?
The USS Princeton already handed out a briefing discussing a possible weather phenomenon.
Sea smoke, sea devils and tropical cyclones are known phenomena and the north-eastern pacific is especially known for it.
What could have happened here is the beginning of such an event, without actually happening. The mixture of hot and cold air with saltwater could also explain lower temperature and building of ice particles at various altitudes. The FA18 flying through the air could have resolved the disturbance (temporarely?).
Another explanation could be a submarine deploying classified spy drones to test the crews reaction and how they appear on the freshly upgraded radar.
This could have been a secret test before using them against Iran in the same month (November 2004, Arak Nuclear Facility).
This would explain the multiple USS Princeton witnesses accounts of confiscated data tapes and the signing of NDA.
Why would no one say something about it?
At this point, I can only purely speculate.
Fravor was described as being overly excited when he saw the UAP (by Kevin Day who was his air controller).
He was 100% convinced he had just chased an UFO. He was made fun of at the ship initially but things changed when Underwood actually recorded something they believed to be the tic tac.
Kurth never saw the other FA18, I am very confident that both of them had no clue what happened at this time.
When they found out later, Kurth stayed quiet because he almost caused a mid-air collision because he didnt followed orders to "pull it" but decided to stay and check out the disturbance.
Fravor was now the famous UFO chaser, he appeared on TV, podcasts, news shows, documentaries. He always seemed to be extremely overconfident in his testimony leaving absolutely zero room for human error. I highly doubt he would ever have realized what really happened but even if, there is no way on earth of him admitting how his famous UFO was a friendly, misinterpreted FA18. He would look like an absolute idiot.
Dietrich was a junior at this time. Very inexperienced by her own account, she said she was very nervous at this time and was at 20 to 25k feet altitude when everything happened. The first time she ever said something publicly was on the 60min bit iirc? To me she seemed uncomfortable, barely described the object at all and made sure to state it was a long time ago and her memory could be flawed. After this show she reappeared on CNN and this was the first time I have ever heard her describing what happened. She used the exact same words as Fravor, which I believe is just replacing Fravors account with her own vague memory.
Fravors own co-pilot already experienced something different according to the report. I like to believe even if he recognized the object as an FA18, he would stay quite and protect his friend. We experience this quite often in military units, for example Marcus Luttrells overexaggerated story of what happened in "Lone Survivor" to make his friends appear more heroic, while the official report suggests a way less heroic event.
They must have seen the three FA18 on radar?
That's actually something that puzzled me a lot. I have two ideas but must state I have absolutely zero knowledge in how a radar works. So maybe someone with actual knowledge could tell me if this is plausible or impossible.
1. Kurth said he could see the two FA18 on his radar. Fravor said his radar was clear. Is there a possibility because of altitude or simply not checking at the right time that Fravor really couldnt see the FA18? Is it possible that the just heavily maintenanced FA18 was lacking a transponder OR had one installed but disabled by accident (it was a check flight) OR activated but not set to "friendly"? Could this have resulted in an unknown track on the USS Princetons radar, not identifiable as a friendly jet?
2. This could be a reason on its own but becomes way more likely if the transponder theory could be true. The situation in the air was described as quite chaotic by Kevin Day in Mick's interview iirc. What if Fravors encounter, the overall anxiety of everyone involved and the amount of airtraffic to be guided simply resulted in not realizing where Kurth was at this time? I heard how "merge plot" is an effect where the radar cant distinguish between multiple signals at the same spot, could Kurth just have been "hidden" by Fravors radar track? Could this be a plausible - even if unlikely - scenario?
Report: https://thevault.tothestarsacademy.com/tictacreport
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