House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

So now people are suggesting that the whole thing never happened and they're lying under oath in front of Congress.

That's just hilarious.

I'd argue that 'nothing actually happened' is pretty much the scientific default. It is our starting point...the very first position before any credentials or oaths or 'evidence' or anything else is factored in. We need evidence that the event being related ever actually occurred at all...let alone that it occurred as related. That's not extreme skepticism....for me it is the starting point, oaths or not. Nobody should get a free pass for being truthful.
 
Scott Kelly’s story during the NASA hearing was a completely reasonable and plausible explanation for strange behavior the tic tac exhibited along with parallax as he was banking and descending down on the object.
Can you provide a link, please?
Somehow I don't remember this report.
 
If people here want to equate "I can't share that publicly" with "that just means he doesn't have shit" then idk what to tell ya.
Given that you've put that second statements in quotes, who here are you quoting? Link please. "Do not paraphrase" is explicitly in the posting guidelines. There may be times when it wouldn't matter so much, but your statement is accusatory, it should be precisely worded and precisely aimed.

GIven that you posted that so proximally to @deirdre's statement of fact, it seems likely that you've twisted what she's said into something that she hasn't. However, she didn't even say something that could be paraphrased as "he doesn't have shit", so you'd be at least two perturbations away from what she actually said. However, others have been dismissive about the worth of his statements, you may be referring to their comments instead. (More than one, it seems, as you used plural "people".)
 
Yes I believe them. Firstly they had no reason to lie, secondly there was radar data that put the object at the location and then also tracked it to the meeting point (unfortunately we've never had access to this data), thirdly there were 4 observers who saw this object. Whilst we all accept eye witness testimony isn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination when you have radar data backing it up then it does lend an additional level of credence to it.

Since you were responding to my post, by "yes I believe them", are you referring to the exorcists I was talking about making claims of levitation? If so, are you saying you personally feel comfortable in believing that the laws of nature have been violated on the basis of verbal testimony alone?

Secondly, I just need to re-emphasize this point. We don't have radar data that puts the object at the location and then also tracked it to the meeting point. We only have a claim that this radar data exists, not the data itself. This is a very important nuance that a lot of people miss with cases like these. Look at the difference between the two hypothetical cases:

- Four pilots give us their testimony of observing a tic tac shaped object performing incredible aerodynamic maneuvers far beyond what any conventional aircraft on earth is capable of. All four pilots have shared their story on record, and we also have radar data available that supports their claims.

Versus:

-Four pilots are claimed to have observed a tic tac shaped object performing incredible aerodynamic maneuvers far beyond what any conventional aircraft on earth is capable of. Out of those four pilots, we only have testimony on record for two of them. Out of those two pilots, one pilot claims the entire encounter with the tic tac lasted 5 minutes. The other pilot says the encounter only lasted for 8-10 seconds. We don't have any official recorded testimony from the other two pilots. Furthermore, it is claimed that radar data exists confirming what the pilots saw, but to this date we have no access to said data and are therefore in no position to know if that data exists.

Notice how the usual way the story is told is the first version, whereas what we actually have available to us is much closer to the second description. They are not evidentially equivalent to each other.

We need to always be precise about what exactly we actually have available to us. A claim that radar data exists is not the same as having radar data.
 
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When you go to see a medical consultant, with 30 years of experience, and he tells you he sees something unusual on your X-ray, I hope you poo-poo that too. Afterall, you must know better? Same basic principle...is it not?

No it isn't. You a citing a non-sequitur. Firstly, even the experts make wrong diagnosis from time to time. But we trust them because we ourselves don't have 6 years medical training...and our lives depend on them being right. There's no end of claims for medical negligence where experts have got it wrong. But we trust them because we really don't have much choice. In addition, I can actually see the X-ray so I don't have to trust the doctor's opinion that there is something there.

All of that is a million miles away from some navy pilot I have never met making claims about some UFO I have never seen or ever been provided with any evidence for and which my life does not depend on. You want me to trust some guy solely because he's Top Gun and a patriot ? Like no patriot ever told untruths under oath ? I'm sure there's a long list ( Casper Weinberger comes to mind as one example ).

Nobody is 'poo pooing' Fravor or any other witnesses. Skepticism is necessarily harsh....and that means that there is not a single person on the planet who gets a free 'always tells the absolute 100% truth ' pass.
 
We need to always be precise about what exactly we actually have available to us. A claim that radar data exists is not the same as having radar data.

We don't have any evidence, beyond verbal claims, that anything happened at all. It becomes entirely a matter of trust....which is not something one can poke and prod and measure in a laboratory. I 'suspect' Fravor and the other pilot did see something. But I equally find Fravor's comment that there was zero investigation of the incident worrying. To my mind there are only two reasons why such a claimed event would not be investigated.....1) The DOD already knew what was going on......2) Everyone knows nothing at all actually happened. Missing radar data only heightens those concerns.
 
I do love how the parallax illusion is put forward as an explanation as if Fravor hasn't spent countless hours flying and witnessing it before. I've yet to see a video doing exactly as Fravor described and producing the same effect.

The interesting thing about visual illusions is that they persist even when you know you're looking at an illusion. It doesn't matter how many examples of parallax I've ever seen in my life. It doesn't matter if I were the world expert on parallax, no matter how much I know about it or how many times I've experienced the effect, my brain will still perceive the illusion just like anyone else.



And:

 
To my mind there are only two reasons why such a claimed event would not be investigated.....1) The DOD already knew what was going on......2) Everyone knows nothing at all actually happened. Missing radar data only heightens those concerns.
3) The DoD found out what was going on before they got around to asking Fravor for an in-depth interview.

1) sounds like they knew before they sent jets, 3) means they found out later (including the option that it was themselves, e.g. via the submarine hypotheses).
 
and then also tracked it to the meeting point
for the record, from a laymens definition, he didnt "track" the radar blip. the radar blip just showed up at the cap point. (or whatever it was called). Just like it just showed up, then disappeared, off and on the radar screen for days before that.
 
But I equally find Fravor's comment that there was zero investigation of the incident worrying. To my mind there are only two reasons why such a claimed event would not be investigated.....1) The DOD already knew what was going on......2) Everyone knows nothing at all actually happened. Missing radar data only heightens those concerns.
To add to the reasons given by Mendel (post #768 - are we that far along already?) there's the consideration that Fravor SAID there were no investigations. So the possible outcomes include A) yes there was an investigation but Fravor wasn't told about it, B) yes there was an investigation but Fravor chose to ignore it, and C) yes there was an investigation but Fravor disagreed with the conclusions and so denied it.

I don't mean to be uncharitable toward him, but for the sake of completeness these are other options.
 
No it isn't. You a citing a non-sequitur. Firstly, even the experts make wrong diagnosis from time to time. But we trust them because we ourselves don't have 6 years medical training...and our lives depend on them being right. There's no end of claims for medical negligence where experts have got it wrong. But we trust them because we really don't have much choice. In addition, I can actually see the X-ray so I don't have to trust the doctor's opinion that there is something there.
I'll add, it is pretty standard practice NOT to just trust the medical expert, especially on anything important, but to seek a second opinion in which some other specialist looks at the evidence and renders a judgement. Perhaps MB is the second opinion provider in these cases? :)
 
I do love how the parallax illusion is put forward as an explanation as if Fravor hasn't spent countless hours flying and witnessing it before. I've yet to see a video doing exactly as Fravor described and producing the same effect.

I've just been up in my F18 Super-hornet in Microsoft Flight Simulator. From 25,000 feet I can barely even see an object 40 feet long, let alone make out that it is a tic-tac. We're talking about visibility of a supposed 40 foot object from 5 miles away. An object which, at that distance, would have an angular size of less than 1/10 of a degree. Tiny. Way smaller that in any of the UFO lobby simulations of the event.

Fravor claims the object paralleled his orbit of it. But of course it would appear to do so. If you tangentially go round any object....by definition it is going to appear to be keeping pace with you and going around on 'the other side of the orbit'. Given that he was out at sea and admits it was flat calm and there were thus no reference points to indicate the true height of the object above the water.....we cannot be sure Fravor's tic tac was even orbiting him at all and the whole incident wasn't just another case of parallax.

You can do a little test for yourself. I have vitamin tablets that are tic tac shaped and half an inch long. Get one of those or something similar and place it at 23.8 feet......and you will see the tic tac as Fravor saw it. ( Maths is....at 25,000 feet 1 degree is 436 feet...so tic tac is 1/10 of a degree. Doing the reverse, 1 degree for an object half an inch long corresponds to 5 inches....multiply by 360 to get a full cirlcle = 1800 inches...divide by pi and then by 2 to get radius....286.5 inches...which is 23.8 feet )
 
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I'll add, it is pretty standard practice NOT to just trust the medical expert, especially on anything important, but to seek a second opinion in which some other specialist looks at the evidence and renders a judgement. Perhaps MB is the second opinion provider in these cases? :)
People who get good medical news seldom seek a second opinion. I think it's a fair statement to say most patients get medical second opinions only in cases where the initial/previous opinion gave a bad or unacceptable diagnosis. Yes, that sounds like MB.
 
I do love how the parallax illusion is put forward as an explanation as if Fravor hasn't spent countless hours flying and witnessing it before.
Please stop with the "pilots are infallible" line of defense to literally every claim. It's so played out. Either way we're dealing with rare occurrences: a super perfect pilot making a mistake or an alien spacecraft visiting in the middle of a Navy training exercise. (Of course there are more possibilities; just making a point.)
 
I've just been up in my F18 Super-hornet in Microsoft Flight Simulator. From 25,000 feet I can barely even see an object 40 feet long, let alone make out that it is a tic-tac. We're talking about visibility of a supposed 40 foot object from 5 miles away. An object which, at that distance, would have an angular size of less than 1/10 of a degree. Tiny. Way smaller that in any of the UFO lobby simulations of the event.

Fravor claims the object paralleled his orbit of it. But of course it would appear to do so. If you tangentially go round any object....by definition it is going to appear to be keeping pace with you and going around on 'the other side of the orbit'. Given that he was out at sea and admits it was flat calm and there were thus no reference points to indicate the true height of the object above the water.....we cannot be sure Fravor's tic tac was even orbiting him at all and the whole incident wasn't just another case of parallax.

You can do a little test for yourself. I have vitamin tablets that are tic tac shaped and half an inch long. Get one of those or something similar and place it at 23.8 feet......and you will see the tic tac as Fravor saw it. ( Maths is....at 25,000 feet 1 degree is 436 feet...so tic tac is 1/10 of a degree. Doing the reverse, 1 degree for an object half an inch long corresponds to 5 inches....multiply by 360 to get a full cirlcle = 1800 inches...divide by pi and then by 2 to get radius....286.5 inches...which is 23.8 feet )
By the way, if you attempt to fly an orbit round something of which you misjudged size and/or distance to begin with, it's bound to behave rather erratically for you, as it won't stay where you thought it should.

Say you run towards your tic tac 23.8ft in front of you on the lawn and plan your turn to come round the other side, only it wasn't a tic tac at 23.8ft but a half size tic tac at 12ft, it'll "zoom by" with incredible speed at your 12ft mark instead of staying at the 23.8ft mark..

(A long winded description of parallax and its perception consequences)
 
Fravor described the tic tac as being under intelligent control.
“Under intelligent control” is a conclusion (interpretation) not an observation. Not necessarily wrong but unlikely directly observed by him.

These observations reminded me of this study,
"Paranormal believers are more prone to illusory agency detection than skeptics", Michiel van Elk, 2013,
Consciousness and Cognition Vol. 22 (3), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1053810013000974

Unfortunately the full MS is paywalled, but van Elk found believers in paranormal phenomena were more likely to attribute "human agency"- intelligent control- to patterns of moving lights, including at times when the lights moved at random.

Now, I'm not implying Fravor is a believer in the paranormal and therefore more likely to attribute agency where none exists-
-there is no evidence for this AFAIK (and I'd guess the average military pilot would find the suggestion rather insulting).

But, an implicit finding of van Elk's study- not the experimental finding, but there in his results- is that there are differences between people in mistakenly attributing agency to the same stimulus, regardless of beliefs, i.e. "normal" people (including people without beliefs in the paranormal etc.) sometimes see agency- intelligent control- where none exists.

I don't know if van Elk discusses causation as well as correlation, that is, if having paranormal beliefs makes someone more likely to report agency where none exists, or if perceiving something natural, random or illusory as being under intelligent control makes someone more likely to interpret the percept as "anomalous".
 
By the way, if you attempt to fly an orbit round something of which you misjudged size and/or distance to begin with, it's bound to behave rather erratically for you, as it won't stay where you thought it should.

Say you run towards your tic tac 23.8ft in front of you on the lawn and plan your turn to come round the other side, only it wasn't a tic tac at 23.8ft but a half size tic tac at 12ft, it'll "zoom by" with incredible speed at your 12ft mark instead of staying at the 23.8ft mark..

(A long winded description of parallax and its perception consequences)
That's true but wouldn't you be able to use structure from motion + inertia to figure out the true range and size of the object? Like humans seem pretty good at gauging depth of objects from parallax of this magnitude but maybe in this sort of context with no size prior and just the sea as the background it is much harder? In your example I think it would become immediately obvious that the tic-tac was closer than I guessed since the motion would create a strong baseline to get a depth estimate regardless of the size of the object. (For reference I actually have a PhD focused on state estimation from machine vision but haven't done the math yet for this particular encounter to see how difficult it would be for a person to do this).
 
How about this: The resurgent UFO flap, including the very existence of publicly funded UFO investigation entities, is primarily just another example of the inherent vulnerability of democratic governments ...

Oi! Leave the rest of the world out of this. This current fuss is a curiously specific USA-ian phenomenon, despite UFOs having no reason to be such. Thanks for the show, though, we have no shortage of popcorn over here. (And for the unfamiliar onlooker, this is only slapstick snark, read between all the lines and it dovetails very closely with what LilWabbit mentioned.)
 
That's true but wouldn't you be able to use structure from motion + inertia to figure out the true range and size of the object? Like humans seem pretty good at gauging depth of objects from parallax of this magnitude but maybe in this sort of context with no size prior and just the sea as the background it is much harder? In your example I think it would become immediately obvious that the tic-tac was closer than I guessed since the motion would create a strong baseline to get a depth estimate regardless of the size of the object. (For reference I actually have a PhD focused on state estimation from machine vision but haven't done the math yet for this particular encounter to see how difficult it would be for a person to do this).
I'm not entirely sure how it works mid-air against a featureless sea, but I'd venture if you've successfully managed to fly circles around it for 5 minutes, you've probably got an idea where it is. If you see it for 8-10 seconds, maybe not so much.

I once passed a birthday balloon in an airliner at 8000ft descending into London as a passenger, it was by sheer coincidence I even noticed it, and I could make out its distinct "5" shape and so I believe (!) I could judge size, thus distance and relative speed (we were at about 250kts, it was approximately stationary, maybe around 40-60m away). And there were some light clouds at various heights/distances below us, so it was relatively easy to place it in context with parallax effect actually helping. With a featureless object against a uniform background in a similar situation? I wouldn't have stood a chance. Also, if by any means the balloon wasn't of any standard size suitable for 5-year-old, my judgement would have been very off.

And of course I don't have any fast jet experience, but from the UFO shooting exercises earlier this year, I seem to remember that pilots were saying they had a hard time visually inspecting the suspicious craft as they couldn't really stay close enough properly, so all in all I'd stay with... difficult to judge what could have been going on really.
 
So one has to ask, if there are no aliens or bodies, how does any government official get to end up firmly convinced there are ? Someone has to be either lying, misrepresenting, or misconstruing somewhere along the line.
Which makes the comparison of the actual burden of the two possible burdens of proof even more stark. If the two sides are *firmly convinced* of their stances, the side which is convinced there are aliens or bodies just has to reveal the evidence for others to examine, it could barely be simpler, barely a burden at all. However, there's nothing the Kirkpatricks of the world can do, as he can't show us every unconvincing thing he's ever seen to come to that conclusion. And in fairness, the NASA et al. guys kinda did their bit a few weeks ago, they showed us a whole bunch of unconvincing evidence and proffered their conclusion that none of it amounts to any evidence of the non-mundane. And half of us shrugged because we already knew that, and the other half of us shrugged as they hadn't been shown the pictures of aliens they were hoping for. Nothing changed. The game's rigged.
 
Knapp and Corbell didn't pick the witnesses, Congress did. Mind you, it wouldn't surprise me if Rep Burchett called Lazar at any future hearings.
I know that. But there is no way they would want him up there. Besides Bob Lazar has a very shady criminal past.
 
It does. Now onto the next point. Can a balloon hover above the water then disappear from view in a couple of seconds? Fravor described the tic tac as being under intelligent control.
If what he saw was Kurth's F/A-18 it was indeed under intelligent control. If the object Fravor (but not Kurth who was in a Red Team Hornet) saw was a drone or balloon launched from a submarine as part of the exercise there would have been some intelligent control there too.

Kurth went back on his own; no one expected him to be there.

Fravor has become convinced what he saw was "not from this world". Really? Did it appear from a secret underwater alien base off the west coast of NA? Slip through a portal? Change dimensions just in time for Fravor to see it? Or was the whatever-it-was part of the training exercise?
 
Which makes the comparison of the actual burden of the two possible burdens of proof even more stark. If the two sides are *firmly convinced* of their stances, the side which is convinced there are aliens or bodies just has to reveal the evidence for others to examine, it could barely be simpler, barely a burden at all. However, there's nothing the Kirkpatricks of the world can do, as he can't show us every unconvincing thing he's ever seen to come to that conclusion.
It's the old "Can't prove a negative" thing again. And if we were, miraculously, to show that every single sighting to date has a mundane explanation, those convinced of their mysterious origin would only have to say "Well, what about the next one, huh?"

They're right, in that respect, in that study of the past of a highly variable subject can't tell us what we will find in the future. It's not as if there's any predictability about what the next sighting will bring. I don't expect more evidence from the next one, but it would still have to be examined on its own merits.
 
Possibly a stupid question as I may be misremembering, but did Grusch say during the hearing that has has a "degree in Physics"?
Democrat Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida asked David Grusch, a former Department of Defense task force member, about the existence of satellite imagery of UAP.

I personally reviewed both what we call overhead collection and from other strategic and tactical platforms that I could not even explain prosaically. I have a degree in physics by the way,” testified Grusch, a former National Reconnaissance Office representative on the Defense Department’s Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Task Force.
Content from External Source
https://kansasreflector.com/2023/07...estrial-life-congress-tries-to-figure-it-out/
 
There are no mechanisms whereby either party could check compliance by the other.
At the time there were no *scalable* solutions, the problem was bigger than the computers they had available. But the boffins were working on a solution, and not long after the treaty was signed, in its rather toothless form, an algorithmic breakthrough was made, making it quite tractable. (Ironically, the roots of the algorithm were ancient, it had just never been considered for these large tasks - the tasks it was best suited for.)
Veritasium covered it pretty well here:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nmgFG7PUHfo
 
Democrat Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida asked David Grusch, a former Department of Defense task force member, about the existence of satellite imagery of UAP.

I personally reviewed both what we call overhead collection and from other strategic and tactical platforms that I could not even explain prosaically. I have a degree in physics by the way,” testified Grusch, a former National Reconnaissance Office representative on the Defense Department’s Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Task Force.
Content from External Source
https://kansasreflector.com/2023/07...estrial-life-congress-tries-to-figure-it-out/
From a quick google search, "2009 Bachelor of Science Degree, Physics, Minor in German, University of Pittsburgh".
https://docs.house.gov/meetings/GO/... Degree, University of Colorado (In-Progress)
 
I personally reviewed both what we call overhead collection and from other strategic and tactical platforms that I could not even explain prosaically. I have a degree in physics by the way,” testified Grusch, a former National Reconnaissance Office representative on the Defense Department’s Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena Task Force.[/EX]

https://kansasreflector.com/2023/07...estrial-life-congress-tries-to-figure-it-out/

At the risk of rousing the ire of resident "you can't possibly carry out a full psychological diagnosis based on such snippets and no recognized degree" (which I'm obviously not even attempting) Taliban clerics, the bolded bit sounds a bit narcissistic.
 
I always have trouble trying to understand the equivalent degrees for different countries... What is "bachelor" equivalent to? a 4 years career at university?
 
At the risk of rousing the ire of resident "you can't possibly carry out a full psychological diagnosis based on such snippets and no recognized degree" (which I'm obviously not even attempting) Taliban clerics, the bolded bit sounds a bit narcissistic.

Narcissism is a personality trait that's completely fair game to identify in an individual, no need for a degree. If you were trying to say he probably has narcissistic personality disorder, that'd be a different thing (which I know you're not trying to do).

But um, taliban clerics? Bit harsh, no?
 
Narcissism is a personality trait that's completely fair game to identify in an individual, no need for a degree. If you were trying to say he probably has narcissistic personality disorder, that'd be a different thing (which I know you're not trying to do).

But um, taliban clerics? Bit harsh, no?

Sorry for the snark. All meant in good jest. :) You weren't the most recent critic of my glib psychoevaluations anyway which concerned the 'scientist' demeanour (as opposed to 'scienciness') of one Dr. Kirkpatrick.

What you say about NPD is of course entirely correct.
 
At the risk of rousing the ire of resident "you can't possibly carry out a full psychological diagnosis based on such snippets and no recognized degree" (which I'm obviously not even attempting) Taliban clerics, the bolded bit sounds a bit narcissistic.
I didn't want to be the first to mention that, but I came away with similar thoughts about Grusch from the hearing. I worked with people like that in the DoD, I called them "Look at me I'm wonderful" types.

Three things he said stuck out to me, in fact I wrote them down while watching. Early on he brought up his "extensive executive level intelligence support duties," then later said he had been prepared to offer Dr Kirkpatrick "sage counsel." On a couple instances, he also foot stomped his "leadership" and being a "leader." Then there was the quote from one of his interviews before the hearing that he wanted to be an "opinion leader."

Sounds like a guy who thinks (or wants to think) highly of himself.
 
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