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Flight MH370 Speculation

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This satellite image is being reported locally - I thought i'd seen something about it here but can't find anything.

Yeah, it was discussed and dismissed, IIRC.

One thing that seems to stand out is the lack of any shadow. The perspective from a satellite's POV causes depth perception to be lost, and that jet could be at normal cruise altitude. If it were down at a few thousand feet AGL, I would think it would cast a fairly distinct shadow.

I've seen my own shadow many times....however, perhaps the satellite resolution may not be good enough anyways.
 
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Now they are now saying that the turn was "programmed" a few minutes BEFORE the last communication. But then they showed a demonstration of a pilot "dialing in" the turn. Confusing.
 
Now they are now saying that the turn was "programmed" a few minutes BEFORE the last communication. But then they showed a demonstration of a pilot "dialing in" the turn. Confusing.

Yes, perhaps because those writing are a bit confused.

Keep in mind that the A/P can be made to "sync up" with the route that is in the FMC, on the Legs Page:

(Note: Based on the color, this is likely from a B737NG. Also because of the Mach number of .78, whereas a B777 is "happier" at M .80 to .84, or thereabouts. But the displays are virtually identical across the Boeing product line, though the instrument panel paint color differs. The light brown/tan for the B757, 767 and 777 product line, usually).

That example shows the "Active Route". At left are the waypoints in sequence, top to bottom. The one in magenta is "Active", or being steered to.
The rest have the magnetic course displayed, the actual direction between each. So you see, there are course changes possible to "program" as each waypoint is passed.

Also you see the distance between them. When the A/P is programmed in the LNAV mode (short for "Lateral Navigation"), then it will follow the route as defined in the FMC. Sequentially following from waypoint to waypoint, unless interrupted, or reaching the end of an "Active Route".

So, this is one of the roll mode options, including the "basic" HDG SEL. Also, HDG HOLD (which just maintains whatever heading you are one when selected). The A/P can also be "told" to capture and track a VOR radial, and a Localizer course too. There are actually a total of nine Roll Modes, but that gets even more confusing and irrelevant to MH370. (Some involve the AutoLand function, for example).
 
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So the plane can fly itself? In the depressurization thread I was told that autopilots are dumb and cannot change course or altitude without the crew actively being involved. From what you say, the FMC can tell the autopilot where and how high to go to next. Even AutoLand, my word?
 
Yes, perhaps because those writing are a bit confused.

Keep in mind that the A/P can be made to "sync up" with the route that is in the FMC, on the Legs Page:

(Note: Based on the color, this is likely from a B737NG. Also because of the Mach number of .78, whereas a B777 is "happier" at M .80 to .84, or thereabouts. But the displays are virtually identical across the Boeing product line, though the instrument panel paint color differs. The light brown/tan for the B757, 767 and 777 product line, usually).

That example shows the "Active Route". At left are the waypoints in sequence, top to bottom. The one in magenta is "Active", or being steered to.
The rest have the magnetic course displayed, the actual direction between each. So you see, there are course changes possible to "program" as each waypoint is passed.

Also you see the distance between them. When the A/P is programmed in the LNAV mode (short for "Lateral Navigation"), then it will follow the route as defined in the FMC. Sequentially following from waypoint to waypoint, unless interrupted, or reaching the end of an "Active Route".

So, this is one of the roll mode options, including the "basic" HDG SEL. Also, HDG HOLD (which just maintains whatever heading you are one when selected). The A/P can also be "told" to capture and track a VOR radial, and a Localizer course too. There are actually a total of nine Roll Modes, but that gets even more confusing and irrelevant to MH370. (Some involve the AutoLand function, for example).

Yes, they spoke of "waypoints" (NBC evening news) and said that they could be "programmed in" (Edit to add: They showed a device like the one above) and that one of them could be called up or selected and chosen to become active. But THEN they showed a pilot turning a knob to initiate a turn, as if they were showing what they had just decribed. They are apparently mixing two different things.
 
I was told that autopilots are dumb and cannot change course or altitude without the crew actively being involved. From what you say, the FMC can tell the autopilot where and how high to go to next. Even AutoLand, my word?


Only up to a point, and yes it is correct that there are most functions that require definite human input. Altitude changes will not occur, for instance, unless the ALT SET window is physically changed. It get complicated, but suffice to say that an A/P isn't designed to climb without a direct input. However, in some instances, it will began an automatic descent, if in 'VNAV' and if, again, the ALT SET window has a lower altitude already input.

Oh and to AutoLand involves a whole bunch of steps, performed in the correct sequence...again, requiring a human to perform.
 
Yes, they spoke of "waypoints" (NBC evening news) and said that they could be "programmed in" and that one of them could be "called up" and chosen to become active. But THEN they showed a pilot turning that knob to initiate a turn. They are apparently mixing two different things.

Ah, good ole' bad journalism! Yes, the choosing a new active waypoint is easy, when you know how of course. .Referring to the CDU picture, on both sides are six "hard" buttons. 'L1' thru 'L6', and 'R1' thru 'R6'.

Say you wished to go direct to waypoint 'ARBER' and skip the other ones, you simply press the button next to it ( 'L3' ). This "copies" it to the "scratchpad" (the blank space at the very bottom of the screen). Then, you press 'L1'. That "pastes" the waypoint into the active position. Nothing happens until you press 'EXEC' (for execute). Then if the computer doesn't see any logic or route discontinuity problems, it accepts and engages the new 'active route'.

Easier to show than to explain, actually.
 
Ah, good ole' bad journalism! Yes, the choosing a new active waypoint is easy, when you know how of course. .Referring to the CDU picture, on both sides are six "hard" buttons. 'L1' thru 'L6', and 'R1' thru 'R6'.

Say you wished to go direct to waypoint 'ARBER' and skip the other ones, you simply press the button next to it ( 'L3' ). This "copies" it to the "scratchpad" (the blank space at the very bottom of the screen). Then, you press 'L1'. That "pastes" the waypoint into the active position. Nothing happens until you press 'EXEC' (for execute). Then if the computer doesn't see any logic or route discontinuity problems, it accepts and engages the new 'active route'.

Easier to show than to explain, actually.
Nah, that was fairly easy to follow Weed Whacker, thanks.
 
Ah, good ole' bad journalism! Yes, the choosing a new active waypoint is easy, when you know how of course. .Referring to the CDU picture, on both sides are six "hard" buttons. 'L1' thru 'L6', and 'R1' thru 'R6'.

Say you wished to go direct to waypoint 'ARBER' and skip the other ones, you simply press the button next to it ( 'L3' ). This "copies" it to the "scratchpad" (the blank space at the very bottom of the screen). Then, you press 'L1'. That "pastes" the waypoint into the active position. Nothing happens until you press 'EXEC' (for execute). Then if the computer doesn't see any logic or route discontinuity problems, it accepts and engages the new 'active route'.

Easier to show than to explain, actually.

So then the aircraft executes a turn to the new heading, on it's own?
 
So the plane can fly itself? In the depressurization thread I was told that autopilots are dumb and cannot change course or altitude without the crew actively being involved. From what you say, the FMC can tell the autopilot where and how high to go to next. Even AutoLand, my word?

Ray, nothing happens with an autopilot without human intervention. As I explained elsewhere, either via the MCP or the FMC. It won't take over an aircraft, and it won't save an aircraft if the crew are incapacitated.
The Helios 737 followed an LNAV track to its destination where it entered a default holding pattern until fuel exhaustion. If it wasn't in LNAV it would have followed the last selected heading till fuel exhaustion.
It cannot auto land by itself either.
 
So then the aircraft executes a turn to the new heading, on it's own?

Yes, when it is 'tracking' the route, and LNAV is engaged. I've tried to hunt through YouTube for examples, can't find any (a video is just so much more descriptive, sometimes).

Note this:


Just another source for pilots to know the status of the autoflight system (among other things, there is a LOT of info there). It is the EADI and PFD, and along the top is the FMA, or Flight Mode Annunciator. This shows the autoflight status. The windows are, L to R: Throttle, Roll & Pitch.

When annunciated in green it is active, in white it is "armed" to be engaged. In this example they are at 3000' and already tracking the Localizer, and the Glideslope (for a full ILS approach) is armed. The G/S is the magenta diamond on the right, and it is almost about to be captured. The green A/P indicates that the autopilot is engaged. (Etc, etc).

If we were navigating via the Legs page, then the green LNAV would show instead of LOC.
 
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I've tried to hunt through YouTube for examples...

Just as a visual aid, it isn't exactly what I discussed, but includes some features...and to answer an earlier question about AutoLand:



(Of course, this video is made from a commercially available home version of the FS2004 simulator).
 
Just as a visual aid, it isn't exactly what I discussed, but includes some features...and to answer an earlier question about AutoLand:



(Of course, this video is made from a commercially available home version of the FS2004 simulator).


That's intense- not so much for you though, I'm sure.
 
I posted on the Maldives spotting thread that either the spotting was authentic or Inmarsat's 0811 gmt+8 data was wrong because the plane couldn't have flown to the Maldives by 0915 gmt+8 from where Inmarsat placed it at 0811

As this is the speculation thread, I hope it's ok to speculate a bit here ...

What if the Inmarsat data was wrong?

From http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/14/us-malaysia-airlines-radar-exclusive-idUSBREA2D0DG20140314
Malaysia's air force chief said on Wednesday an aircraft that could have been the missing plane was plotted on military radar at 2:15 a.m., 200 miles northwest of Penang Island off Malaysia's west coast

Phuket is 215miles from Penang island in the slightly north of northwest direction. So I guess it was just off Phuket at 0215 gmt+8. I figured that it takes about 3h58m to fly from Phuket to Male, Maldives. That would mean that the plane could have been flying over Male about 0615 gmt+8. I couldn't find Kuda Huvadhoo on travelmath.com and I know it's about 170miles SW of Male. Factoring in the difference and the fact that ETA Beijing was 0630 gmt+8, I think it's reasonable for the plane to be seen there at about 0615 gmt+8

But they said they saw it at 0615 gmt+5 or 0915 gmt+8 ... How can that be? I can only think of two possibilities:
  1. It was fueled for an additional 2h45m of flight time; or
  2. It refueled somewhere
Any other possibilities? Where could it have refueled without being noticed?
 
Any other possibilities? Where could it have refueled without being noticed?

The most obvious, that it wasn't there at all.

An aircraft such as a 777 does not land anywhere its possible for it to land, without being noticed.
 
If the plane kept flying with an incapacitated crew/passengers and just flew until it ran out of gas. How would it fall out of the sky? Would it just drop and belly flop or would it likely nose down?
 
WeedWhacker or another should chime in, but I believe that autopilot would try to keep doing what it was last told to do. If its to try and maintain altitude it will try to do that, if its to maintain a track it'll try to do that. Once it can't it will turn off expecting a human to intervene.
 
Once it can't it will turn off expecting a human to intervene
No, it will revert to a basic mode such as heading Hold and altitude hold. The autopilot needs to be disengaged manually once engaged.

On a separate note, the Australian search may have picked something up. The reason this strikes me as significant is that it was announced by the Australian PM before any sort of confirmation.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...wreckage-of-crashed-plane-20140320-354ij.html
 
If the plane kept flying with an incapacitated crew/passengers and just flew until it ran out of gas. How would it fall out of the sky? Would it just drop and belly flop or would it likely nose down?

That is a good question. The autopilot, being connected to the fly by wire system, would probably hold a speed just above stall speed and the AP would cancel any altitude holding mode and begin a descent to maintain that speed. With out any engine thrust that would be a fairly steep nose down attitude. The heading would still be controlled by whatever lateral AP mode was still operating. So probably a high descent rate into the water.
 
That is a good question. The autopilot, being connected to the fly by wire system, would probably hold a speed just above stall speed and the AP would cancel any altitude holding mode and begin a descent to maintain that speed. With out any engine thrust that would be a fairly steep nose down attitude. The heading would still be controlled by whatever lateral AP mode was still operating. So probably a high descent rate into the water.

Yeah but...with the engines failed from fuel starvation and normal electrical lost, the A/P disengages. Right? When it becomes a glider with no one controlling then all bets are off...except for one of course. Gravity.
 
Yeah but...with the engines failed from fuel starvation and normal electrical lost, the A/P disengages. Right? When it becomes a glider with no one controlling then all bets are off...except for one of course. Gravity

Yeah probably right. Unless the particular AP is powered via an emergency battery bus or something. I'd have to look at the elec diagrams but I suspect you are correct.
 
Yeah but...with the engines failed from fuel starvation and normal electrical lost, the A/P disengages. Right? When it becomes a glider with no one controlling then all bets are off...except for one of course. Gravity.
This is what I meant when I referred to the AP no longer being able to maintain ,,, well, anything. It cannot maintain altitude, would begin having trouble maintaining speed above stall without a severe nose down , possibly maintain a course, but all of that assumes the FMC and/or AP are powered.
Does the drop down prop generator automatically deploy, can it supply power in a no-break fashion that would allow the AP to remain on?
 
Ahh, yes, if power is conditioned via a battery bank then any interruption in power generation would not cause electronics to lose power.
 
Ahh, yes, if power is conditioned via a battery bank then any interruption in power generation would not cause electronics to lose power.

Except, as Cobra knows, once there is an interruption of power the A/P disengages, and needs to be actually re-engaged by a person, once the electrical busses are re-powered.
(Although as I'm learning, the B777 Electrical System is "smart", I guess Airbus is similar? and normal bus power source switching is done with little to no interruptions).

In the case when both engine N2 RPM drop below a certain value, the RAT deploys, [[correction, on the B777 loss of both Transfer Busses triggers the RAT]] and it powers basic hydraulics (flight controls) and an hydraulically driven electrical generator...but in that condition it's only for emergency electric busses, and the A/Ps need the Transfer Busses to be powered. These will get power from the "Backup" generators. But, reading on...these "Backups" are driven by the engines, so dunno if windmilling engines would be enough.

Here ya go, found a schematic:
[Broken External Image]:http://qph.is.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-5d71030007833cf7dfa7cd50039a2ae7?convert_to_webp=true

Err..that one ain't so great. You could look for "smartcockpit" in your browser search, and find the PDFs there. Seems their site only allows downloads, not online browsing.

(Bear with me, I'm learning the specifics of the B777 systems where they differ from ones I know better...the B757/767).

With both engines gone (windmilling), their IDGs and the Backups gone (and no APU Gen), then it is just Standby electrical power available, via the batteries, the standby inverter and the RAT, as mentioned. So, the Transfer Busses would be dead.
 
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So once it runs out of fuel, back up power takes over and might control the flaps n stuff to keep the plane level?

The question I really was asking is.
If the plane is at level flight when everything stops working, how do aerodynamics make the plane fall out of the sky? Does it just drop and stay level or nose down?
 
Once the engines stop, you are going down. How that happens is dependent on a few things which aren't quantifiable. Spiral dive, stall/spin or a combination of both.
 
So once it runs out of fuel, back up power takes over and might control the flaps n stuff to keep the plane level?

Nah, sorry my disjointed post might have been confusing...I had to learn the B777 systems, never actually flew it. The A/P would not have been receiving any power in a dual engine failure situation. As Cobra said above, I will ditto.
 
At any rate, and experienced pilot would know that and not have to use the more complex method to change headings, yes?

Hey, I found an article dated two days ago, and somehow missed it before. Maybe it will clear up why there seem contradictions in the reporting, i.e. a simple heading change using HDG SEL, or the entering of a new waypoint (via the FMC).

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?_r=0

Instead of manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials. The Flight Management System, as the computer is known, directs the plane from point to point specified in the flight plan submitted before a flight.
Content from External Source
.......
And they withdrew their assertion that another automated system on the plane, the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, or Acars, had already been disabled when the co-pilot spoke.

Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official. This shows that the reprogramming happened before the Acars stopped working. The Acars ceased to function about the same time that oral radio contact was lost and the airplane’s transponder also stopped...
Content from External Source
So how I interpret this is: The "7 or 8 keystrokes" would be about right for someone typing in a 5-digit fix or waypoint, the pressing the L1 button on the CDU (to move that fix to the first and "active" position), then pressing the 'EXEC' button to execute the command. The airplane would then turn (if on A/P and in the LNAV roll mode) in order to track to the new waypoint.

If this information in the article is accurate, this could put the catastrophic failure, major fire and electrical failure, etc out of the list of speculations. I am surprised to learn, though, that ACARS would send that info (the CDU keystroke entries). I did not know that.
 
I was wondering how they would know the digits had been typed. assumed they were just guessing.

Aren't they just saying to us laymen that it is quick(only 7-8 keypresses) to set a new active waypoint and that the ACARS reported a different heading as what would be on a flight path to Beijing? Meaning it was reprogrammed before the ACARS was off.
 
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Yes, that bit about the keystrokes was what I heard in a verbal report the other day. THEN they showed a pilot using the small knob on the autopilot to execute a turn, so it seemed contradictory.
 
The auto flight systems are integrated. You can select a heading on the mode control panel, or tell the aircraft to fly somewhere on the FMC scratchpad. Vertically it works the same way although the system will generally treat the altitude set in the autopilot panel as the hard limit for safety reasons.
 
Me too. Doesn't sound right.
From what you and WeedWhacker have said, this struck me as odd. Not only are we being told ACARS transmitted the keystroke punches which you didn't think was monitored that way, were we also not informed that Malaysian Air did not subscribe to this type of maintenance download? That would mean that this is be a Boeing procedure. So is Boeing 'spying' on its aircraft worldwide and pilots are unaware of it?
 
From what you and WeedWhacker have said, this struck me as odd. Not only are we being told ACARS transmitted the keystroke punches which you didn't think was monitored that way, were we also not informed that Malaysian Air did not subscribe to this type of maintenance download? That would mean that this is be a Boeing procedure. So is Boeing 'spying' on its aircraft worldwide and pilots are unaware of it?

I don't believe they were saying 7 to 8 keystrokes WAS made, they were merely saying that that number of keystrokes would have been necessary IF the computer was reprogrammed.
 
I don't believe they were saying 7 to 8 keystrokes WAS made, they were merely saying that that number of keystrokes would have been necessary IF the computer was reprogrammed.

No, the one report I heard said that it had been determined that a number of keystrokes HAD been made, which meant an experienced pilot must have been involved.
 
which meant an experienced pilot must have been involved.
that's what I took from it too. since 2 or 3 of the digits were "secret airline code stuff" ?? but since the data couldn't have been transmitted to the ground, I think the article was just poorly written.
 
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