Flight MH370 Speculation

[Jason]

The current wiki page is quite informative now and seems to cover everything very well.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_370#Timeline_of_response

Relatives of Chinese passengers threaten a hunger strike for lack of information from Malaysian authorities.

Content from External Source

Seriously, a hunger strike. A. I can't believe that was important enough to include in the wiki link, B. Why in the world would you decide that if you stop eating, they will give you more information. This isn't a prison..., Not too mention one of the other "events" in the timeline state that Malaysia is giving 5k to the family members of each of the passengers. That's it, just 5k, and I'm sure there will be some sort of language attached to that 5k that doesn't permit them to sue the Airline in the future

 

[Pete Tar]

It's in the 'public response' part of the table.
It's a compendium of all the things related to the plane - there's no reason why they wouldn't include it.
Or do you mean the report is likely a hoax because a hunger-strike is not rational? It's just a way to protest and signifies their frustration.

 

[Gregor]

If there's an electrical fire in the cockpit are there any "automatic" safety measures in place for such an event. Do engineers who develop these planes take that into consideration, in terms of the fire and smoke developing so quickly that it could incapacitate the pilots and crew? Because if this is a likely scenario, or even a remotely possible scenario wouldn't the people that build these planes take that into consideration. Does the cockpit or plane have a way of dealing with this situation without human intervention? Also wouldn't a fire that's capable of doing this kind of damage render the other electronics in the cockpit, including "auto pilot" useless. Could it also be possible that this fire ruined all of the electronics in the plane, which in turn left the pilots without radio communications. Could the fire also ruin their controls that deal with flight navigation, which would've made them fly in the dark, so to speak. Maybe they turned back to the airport, but with no ability to navigate the plane, they flew off course. Is that possible?

I don't know too much about how the 777 was engineered. I do know that I can remember taking a 2 hour flight from Whitehorse to Watson Lake Yukon in the middle of winter. I was in a small charter plane with a pilot and the cabin heater quit shortly after we took off. It was -32 below with a cloud ceiling of 500 feet. We dropped our altitude to just under the cloud cover to try and stay warm. The pilot trimmed the aircraft for level flight and we followed the highway from Whitehorse to Watson Lake. After he trimmed the aircraft he put his hands in his pockets to keep them warm. Every so often we would be buffeted by an updraft, a downdraft or crosswind and the pilot would have to take his hands out of his pockets and make minor adjustments to put the aircraft back on course or adjust the altitude. That was 37 years ago. The aircraft I was flying in was a twin engine - built in the 60’s. My point being, and it has been known to happen, an airplane can continue flying in a general direction for many hours before running out of fuel and crashing - without anyone being in control.

 

[WeedWhacker]

I don't know too much about how the 777 was engineered. I do know that I can remember taking a 2 hour flight from Whitehorse to Watson Lake Yukon in the middle of winter. I was in a small charter plane with a pilot and the cabin heater quit shortly after we took off. It was -32 below with a cloud ceiling of 500 feet. We dropped our altitude to just under the cloud cover to try and stay warm. The pilot trimmed the aircraft for level flight and we followed the highway from Whitehorse to Watson Lake. After he trimmed the aircraft he put his hands in his pockets to keep them warm. Every so often we would be buffeted by an updraft, a downdraft or crosswind and the pilot would have to take his hands out of his pockets and make minor adjustments to put the aircraft back on course or adjust the altitude. That was 37 years ago. The aircraft I was flying in was a twin engine - built in the 60’s. My point being, and it has been known to happen, an airplane can continue flying in a general direction for many hours before running out of fuel and crashing - without anyone being in control.

Ah, those were the days! That exemplifies what is commonly called "bush flying". Back when regulations existed, but many paid little attention to them.

As to an airplane that is trimmed for straight and level, yeah even without an autopilot it can remain steady, but in reality any tiny change in wind or a slight thermal will upset the equilibrium. Even with his hands in his pockets, you probably didn't notice that he could keep the wings level with tiny amounts of pressure on either rudder pedal.

Of course, cases of an airplane continuing until fuel exhaustion while on A/P, after the pilots became incapacitated, are in the history books.

Hmmm...light twin, the 60s? And a finicky cabin heater...sounds like a Beech, maybe a Baron or Travelair. They had heaters made by Janitrol. The Cessna 310 also. And, I believe that Janitrol is not in business, bought out by Hartzell. FWIW.

 

[Gregor]

Ah, those were the days! That exemplifies what is commonly called "bush flying". Back when regulations existed, but many paid little attention to them.

As to an airplane that is trimmed for straight and level, yeah even without an autopilot it can remain steady, but in reality any tiny change in wind or a slight thermal will upset the equilibrium. Even with his hands in his pockets, you probably didn't notice that he could keep the wings level with tiny amounts of pressure on either rudder pedal.

Of course, cases of an airplane continuing until fuel exhaustion while on A/P, after the pilots became incapacitated, are in the history books.

Hmmm...light twin, the 60s? And a finicky cabin heater...sounds like a Beech, maybe a Baron or Travelair. They had heaters made by Janitrol. The Cessna 310 also. And, I believe that Janitrol is not in business, bought out by Hartzell. FWIW.

It was a Piper Apache PA-23-150 and your right! Those were the days

 

[WeedWhacker]

It was a Piper Apache PA-23-150...

Ah!!! The Apache. D'Oh! I should have thought of that, my Mom learned to fly in one (in the early 1960s). N1055P. (That N-number since re-assigned).

Oddly, I don't recall ever flying any Piper twins! Mostly Beech and Cessna, but this was many decades ago!

Found a pic, the inside anyway:




Editing to twist this to the topic (in some way)..."Speculation": Time warp.
MH 370 is in the past, circa 1961. Like in that "Twilight Zone" episode.

 

[Jason]

It's in the 'public response' part of the table.
It's a compendium of all the things related to the plane - there's no reason why they wouldn't include it.
Or do you mean the report is likely a hoax because a hunger-strike is not rational? It's just a way to protest and signifies their frustration.

That its not rational for adults to go on a hunger strike to get information. It doesn't make a bit of sense and or shows the maturity level of those affected by this disaster. And how are we to know if they actually didn't eat anything. Will cameras be following them around all the time to make sure. It just seems like a desperate and unattainable.

 

[Jason]

Ah!!! The Apache. D'Oh! I should have thought of that, my Mom learned to fly in one (in the early 1960s). N1055P. (That N-number since re-assigned).

Oddly, I don't recall ever flying any Piper twins! Mostly Beech and Cessna, but this was many decades ago!

Found a pic, the inside anyway:




Editing to twist this to the topic (in some way)..."Speculation": Time warp.
MH 370 is in the past, circa 1961. Like in that "Twilight Zone" episode.

Wow, you must've had a great childhood, and its no wonder why your so into planes and became a pilot yourself. The acorn doesn't fall to far from the tree, so to speak...

 

[Pete Tar]

That its not rational for adults to go on a hunger strike to get information. It doesn't make a bit of sense and or shows the maturity level of those affected by this disaster

I don't think they're in a rational state at this point, just desperate and frantic. Yeah I really doubt that magically they'll get information that was being withheld from them. And it would be cruel to update them at every little bit of information if it may turn out to be a false lead, they need to exercise some restraint and confirm things first, which takes time.
Just a crappy situation all round.

 

[deirdre]

I don't think they're in a rational state at this point, just desperate and frantic. Yeah I really doubt that magically they'll get information that was being withheld from them. And it would be cruel to update them at every little bit of information if it may turn out to be a false lead, they need to exercise some restraint and confirm things first, which takes time.
Just a crappy situation all round.

Hunger strikes bring press attention. press attention brings action or answers. Malaysia info has seemed a bit wonky and we don't know what they are hearing from China. There may be no new information to get but I don't find their actions strange, irrational or "immature" in the least.

 

[Jason]

I don't think they're in a rational state at this point, just desperate and frantic. Yeah I really doubt that magically they'll get information that was being withheld from them. And it would be cruel to update them at every little bit of information if it may turn out to be a false lead, they need to exercise some restraint and confirm things first, which takes time.
Just a crappy situation all round.

I'm not dismissing their frustration or need to know whats going on with loved ones. I would be losing my mind if it were my kids or wife that were on that plane. I can sympathize. But to proclaim a hunger strike in my opinion doesn't make a bit of sense. Then again, there is video of these people throwing a water bottle at one of the spokesman for Malaysian airlines.

 

[Jason]

Hunger strikes bring press attention. press attention brings action or answers. Malaysia info has seemed a bit wonky and we don't know what they are hearing from China. There may be no new information to get but I don't find their actions strange, irrational or "immature" in the least.

Well thats you Deirdre, and I respect that, but I would rather make calls to the Embassy, get my face on the news and trust me any media outlet in the world would love an opportunity to interview the family members of the missing passengers (it wouldn't be difficult to get in front a camera), or even call lawyers and prominent people who give a shit, rather than say I'm not going to eat any more. Thats just taking a bad situation and making it worse, and in the end its turning the focus off of those missing and putting it on the ones who stopped eating (to get attention). There are more mature and helpful ways to get attention to serve both the needs of the missing, and the ones who are trying to get answers. "Poor is me" isn't the right approach in my eyes, sorry...

 

[Jason]

Hunger strikes bring press attention. press attention brings action or answers.

Guess what, Missing Planes also bring press attention. There is no need to take the focus off the missing plane and its passengers by going on a hunger strike. Thats absurd. There's already more attention on this then any other event in recent history. Family members can go on camera and express their desire to get answers, and honestly that will better serve their needs than starving themselves... Sorry its just how I see things, I think its better to keep all of the focus on this developing story to get answers, rather than how the families are going to starve themselves to get answers.

 

[deirdre]

Guess what, Missing Planes also bring press attention. There is no need to take the focus off the missing plane and its passengers by going on a hunger strike. Thats absurd. There's already more attention on this then any other event in recent history. Family members can go on camera and express their desire to get answers, and honestly that will better serve their needs than starving themselves... Sorry its just how I see things, I think its better to keep all of the focus on this developing story to get answers, rather than how the families are going to starve themselves to get answers.

it doesn't take the focus off at all. and why are you assuming the other avenues aren't being done? you think these people are throwing water bottles and yet NOT expressing their anguish to the cameras? but I'm not seeing a lot of coverage highlighting the passengers as people. A few minor lines in an article stating "families are frustrated" doesn't really paint the same picture. But perhaps you are seeing different news coverage then I am since I don't have cable. Either way it is inappropriate to make comments like that.

 

[WeedWhacker]

I do feel empathy in this situation, it is truly a vexing and frustrating enigma.

The (fairly recent) Air France 447 event, though also over water, was producing answers (even though it took longer to get exact info, from DFDR recovery). Ditto with many other events....meaning, it was generally known there was a crash, and little hope of survivors.

This case is so extremely different. But as the days drag on, the inevitable conclusion is that it suffered a similar fate as the other historical examples.

 

[jaydeehess]

There is one other issue that contributes to the confusion. Malaysia is a highly regulated country. The media is govt owned and controlled, and officials simply are not used to being questioned. They release very little voluntarily. Thus it is backroom, nonofficial conversations that generate most stories . It is those unofficial statements that international media ask officials about. You can imagine how this combination results in not only incorrect media reports but also searches that are just goose chases.

 

[NoParty]

Ah!!! The Apache. D'Oh! I should have thought of that, my Mom learned to fly in one (in the early 1960s). [/ATTACH]

So the flight gene is passed down on the mother's side?

(like baldness and Judaism?)

 

[WeedWhacker]

So the flight gene is passed down...

Hilarious!

More like serendipity, in my case. It's actually quite rare for someone to go from Student Pilot to Private with an MEL rating first, without getting a SEL rating! Again, though...it was the early 60s. And she and her 2nd husband owned the airplane, so.....

 

[jaydeehess]

I fear this may be a case in which we never know what happened or the final disposition of this flight and its occupants.
Its been so long and absolutely no physical , positive debris recovery, the possible search area so huge, and parts of the ocean so deep, that the chances are getting extremely remote of solving this mystery.

 

[Jason]

it doesn't take the focus off at all. and why are you assuming the other avenues aren't being done? you think these people are throwing water bottles and yet NOT expressing their anguish to the cameras? but I'm not seeing a lot of coverage highlighting the passengers as people. A few minor lines in an article stating "families are frustrated" doesn't really paint the same picture. But perhaps you are seeing different news coverage then I am since I don't have cable. Either way it is inappropriate to make comments like that.

Sorry if I offend you by a comment I made. I guess we'll have to agree on us disagreeing. I sympathize for them, and honestly I haven't seen any interviews with any family members besides the American Phillip wood's children. They are on TV asking the tough questions, but maybe it has to do with the area of the world these people reside in as someone mentioned above. About state media running the show, and they feel this can help them get heard. That could be a possibility

 

[00Mark]

Indonesia is a highly regulated country.

What about Malaysia?

 

[jaydeehess]

What about Malaysia?

Oh snap, I did not do that, oooooh yes I did.

edited to correct

 

[Balance]

It is increasingly looking as if a major breakthrough has been made in the search.

The families of the missing passengers have been offered flights to Australia, according to Sky News.

Content from External Source

Relatives of the 239 people missing on the plane have been called to an emergency briefing, according to reports.

Content from External Source

News conference in 10minutes

'Lost beyong any reasonable doubt'
Malaysia Airlines has announced that the missing Boeing is assumed to have crashed with no survivors.

In a statement it said:

We deeply regret that we have to assume beyond any reasonable doubt that MH370 has been lost and that none of those on board have survived..we must now accept all evidence suggests the plane went down in the Southern Indian Ocean.

Content from External Source

3m ago

UK experts told the Malaysia PM that satellite signals have shed more light on MH370 flight path.

They concluded that MH370 flew along the southern corridor and that its last location was in the South Indian Ocean, Najib Razak said.
Najib said: “With deep sadness and regret, according to this new data, we must conclude flight MH370 ended in the Southern Indian Ocean."

Content from External Source

 

[Mark Barrington]

In light of the recent news, it might be useful to remember some of the more ridiculous speculation that has been aired on the 24 hour cable networks. In my opinion, retired pilot Jim Tilmon, who was a frequent guest, deserves some sort of prize for going furthest. Here's one example:

http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?/video/bestoftv/2014/03/18/pmt-jim-tilmon.cnn&iref=allsearch&video_referrer=http://www.cnn.com/search/?query=Jim%20Tilmon&sortBy=relevance

 

[WeedWhacker]

In light of the recent news, it might be useful to remember some of the more ridiculous speculation that has been aired on the 24 hour cable networks. In my opinion, retired pilot Jim Tilmon, who was a frequent guest, deserves some sort of prize for going furthest. Here's one example:

http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?/video/bestoftv/2014/03/18/pmt-jim-tilmon.cnn&iref=allsearch&video_referrer=http://www.cnn.com/search/?query=Jim%20Tilmon&sortBy=relevance

Jim Tilmon takes the cake! It's embarrassing.

 

[Balance]

UK experts told the Malaysia PM that satellite signals have shed more light on MH370 flight path.

Once again, I'm left asking the question - what information was gleaned from the other hourly satellite pings and why is it only now they announce all must be assumed lost around the point of the last signal?

 

[Gregor]

The theories will not change much in the next little while, just because all we know (nothing really new) is that the plane is missing and they now believe it crashed in the southern Indian Ocean. It will be a little more clear if they recover the items spotted by aircraft and they turn out to be part of flight MH370. More waiting..

 

[Mark Barrington]

Once again, I'm left asking the question - what information was gleaned from the other hourly satellite pings and why is it only now they announce all must be assumed lost around the point of the last signal?

I've heard a couple of different things:
1. They were able to use the doppler shift from the frequency of the Inmarsat 'pings' to determine some information about the speed and direction of travel of the plane.
2. They combined data from looking at all of the pings since the disappearance (not just the last one) and did some mathematical analysis which made the northern arc VERY improbable.

Neither one of those are answers to your question, but I expect there will be more details at the press conference tomorrow. Hopefully, they will explain the reasoning and provide data so it can be independently verified, although I don't know if they are obligated to do so.

 

[Balance]

I feel many of us concluded all were lost when the satellite ping news originally emerged, therefore this latest news conference/statement (I believe) is a merciful act for the relatives who were obviously suffering in the vain hope the passengers may somehow still be alive.

 

[Mark Barrington]

Once again, I'm left asking the question - what information was gleaned from the other hourly satellite pings and why is it only now they announce all must be assumed lost around the point of the last signal?

Also, if I heard him correctly, the Inmarsat spokesman said that the handshakes occurred every 15 minutes, not hourly. That would provide a lot more data for a statistical analysis.

 

[Jason]

Also, if I heard him correctly, the Inmarsat spokesman said that the handshakes occurred every 15 minutes, not hourly. That would provide a lot more data for a statistical analysis.

What would those "handshakes" provide us with? Do they give altitude, speed, or bearings? I think they realized it would be best to come out with this news sooner than later, and they've had to deal with the fact that they just don't know what happened, or where the plane inevitably went down. Why they waited all this time to relay the most likely conclusion is unbeknownst to me, and has been the cause of so many CT's. It's so hard to accept this for what it is if your a family member who lost someone on this flight, and there are always going to be more unanswered questions then answered unless they find the wreckage. For me, I would love to know why the plane turned and had increases/decreases in altitude or why no calls were made from the plane or emergency communications from the cockpit. Is it possible for all the crew and passengers to die due to cabin pressure, and for the plane to continue to fly on its own recognizance all the while making turns, course corrections, and altitude adjustments.

 

[Mark Barrington]

What would those "handshakes" provide us with? Do they give altitude, speed, or bearings? I think they realized it would be best to come out with this news sooner than later, and they've had to deal with the fact that they just don't know what happened, or where the plane inevitably went down.

As I understand it, they have a precise time stamp that allows them to tell exactly how much time the signal took to travel from the transmitter to the satellite. That tells them how far the plane is away from the satellite, and when they plot that on the earth's surface, they get a great big circle. They used some evidence about the signal not being received by other satellites and they can cut some chunks out of that circle.

The latest analysis apparently has narrowed that down further, and my post above speculates on what kind of information they used to do that.

Is it possible for all the crew and passengers to die due to cabin pressure, and for the plane to continue to fly on its own recognizance all the while making turns, course corrections, and altitude adjustments.

That's a question for a pilot, but from what I've read, I don't think that it's possible for that to happen. But I don't know if we have enough information yet to completely rule out everyone including the pilots dying early on in the crisis and all of the apparent maneuvering being due to other factors, or just incorrect reporting. Also, I don't think pilot suicide is completely off the table yet, if I can briefly access my inner Jim Tilmon.

 

[WeedWhacker]

Is it possible for all the crew and passengers to die due to cabin pressure, and for the plane to continue to fly on its own recognizance all the while making turns, course corrections, and altitude adjustments.

In terms of how the autopilot, if engaged, will respond...it will "track" a route that is defined and 'active" in the FMC (Flight Management Computer) as long as the A/P is in the appropriate mode. (Which is 'LNAV'). There is also a vertical navigation mode (abbreviated 'VNAV'), but the A/P will not leave any altitude (when in 'VNAV' mode) unless there is a 'new' altitude set in the window on the MCP (Mode Control Panel).



So, 'No' to "altitude adjustments" in the question above, unless a person physically interacts with the MCP to adjust the altitude set window.

 

[Ray Robertson]

As I understand it, they have a precise time stamp that allows them to tell exactly how much time the signal took to travel from the transmitter to the satellite. That tells them how far the plane is away from the satellite, and when they plot that on the earth's surface, they get a great big circle. They used some evidence about the signal not being received by other satellites and they can cut some chunks out of that circle.

The latest analysis apparently has narrowed that down further, and my post above speculates on what kind of information they used to do that.

They compared it to other planes flying that route:

"Effectually we looked at the Doppler effect, which is the change in frequency, due to the movement of a satellite in its orbit. What that then gave us was a predicted path for the northerly route and a predicted path the southerly route," Chris McLaughlin, senior vice president of external affairs at Inmarsat, told the Daily Telegraph.
"They've tested it off against a number of other aircraft known flights and come to the conclusion that only the southern route was possible," McLaughlin told Sky News on Monday (local time).
"We refined that with the signals we got from other (777) aircraft and that then gives you a very, very good fit.
"Previous aircraft provided a pattern and that pattern to the south is virtually what we got in our suggested estimates."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/9863325/How-flight-MH370s-path-was-confirmed

Content from External Source

Thumbs up to this:

McLaughlin said systems that kept track of a plane's precise location should be mandated world-wide "and it could be delivered tomorrow".

Content from External Source

 

[Soulfly]

So the plane flew back over land and in range of cell towers? And no one sent as much as a text message.

 

[Jason]

So the plane flew back over land and in range of cell towers? And no one sent as much as a text message.

This is what's puzzling me most. Even if the pilots lost radio communication, they would've had the intelligence and ability to make a phone call while over land, or at least attempt it. The plane made several corrections in terms of altitude, and bearing for it to be "automated or by accident". Which means the pilots had to make these decisions or at least someone on board did. This will most likely remain a mystery for some time to come, its unfortunate..

 

[Jason]

In terms of how the autopilot, if engaged, will respond...it will "track" a route that is defined and 'active" in the FMC (Flight Management Computer) as long as the A/P is in the appropriate mode. (Which is 'LNAV'). There is also a vertical navigation mode (abbreviated 'VNAV'), but the A/P will not leave any altitude (when in 'VNAV' mode) unless there is a 'new' altitude set in the window on the MCP (Mode Control Panel).



So, 'No' to "altitude adjustments" in the question above, unless a person physically interacts with the MCP to adjust the altitude set window.

Can these corrections be made from the ground? Is it possible for ATC or the military to take control of the planes's auto pilot and input data via radio communications with the plane's computers? I'm not proposing this happened, just curious?

 

[Jason]

WeedWhacker, what could've caused the plane to increase its altitude to 45000 feet. Pilots would've known that the plane wasn't designed to do this, right? So what would be the only reason you can think of for this happening. Why would a pilot pull up dramatically, possibly to avoid another aircraft, right or a sever thunderstorm?

 

[WeedWhacker]

Can these corrections be made from the ground? Is it possible for ATC or the military to take control of the planes's auto pilot and input data via radio communications with the plane's computers?

Simple answer: No.

...what could've caused the plane to increase its altitude to 45000 feet.

Actually, I think that 'report' might be a red herring. Due to some misinterpretation/bad data. I'd not take that as "gospel" at this point.

 

[Jason]

Simple answer: No.



Actually, I think that 'report' might be a red herring. Due to some misinterpretation/bad data. I'd not take that as "gospel" at this point.

Shouldn't there have been military Navy ships in the Indian Ocean and China Sea at this time. Aren't these waters constantly being monitored by military of all nations capable of doing so. I read somewhere that land based radar can only see out to sea about 150 miles or so, and then its up to high frequency radio to communicate with the airplanes. But that got me to thinking. Most Navy's in the world would like to see what happening beyond this point, so they would generally place ships capable of using radar to track whats in the air. Especially in this region of the world, south of China, west of Australia, Indonesia, etc, etc, etc....