Claim BUK launcher trucked out of Ukraine

Jason

Senior Member
This is allegedly a photo from Gerashchenko's facebook page showing the contrail from the Buk Missile System that was used to shoot down Mh-17. He goes on to accuse Putin that he will not get away with it.
He also goes on to say;
 

jonnyH

Senior Member.
Please keep on topic. The topic is the evidence of a Buk launcher being used to bring down the plane, and then removed from the area.
I think what I am clumsily trying to suggest is that since the trailer seems to be easily identifiable as the property of the Russian military it would make sense that it was headed back to Russia. I can't imagine they want to be caught with any of their assets the wrong side of the border at this stage.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
This photo:

Is listed in the daily mail article as being Torez, but looks more like this road from Snizhne (Google Earth viewpoint attached)



So would be heading towards the border crossing 10 miles south of there (14 miles, 24 km by road), near Repyakhovatyy

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine/Repyakhovatyy, Rostovskaya oblast', Russia/@47.9123467,38.8692437,12z/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x40e0527fe326ac47:0xa186a4453c6414ce!2m2!1d38.765611!2d48.028278!1m5!1m1!1s0x40e1a87bae687587:0x58d358c62ae6028!2m2!1d38.8665098!2d47.8486798


Better pic from the video:
 

Attachments

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Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I think what I am clumsily trying to suggest is that since the trailer seems to be easily identifiable as the property of the Russian military it would make sense that it was headed back to Russia. I can't imagine they want to be caught with any of their assets the wrong side of the border at this stage.

I agree. (the "off topic" warning was not aimed at you, but at the two posts I had deleted).
 

Jason

Senior Member
But how do we know we are talking about the same piece of hardware since some of the photos show the Buk missile system on the back of a flatbed, and others show it driving down the street without the flatbed truck.
These are with the flatbed.




And this one is without the flatbed truck. below

 

Jason

Senior Member


Is there a way to identify where this photo is from because it might lead to the exact location from where the missile was fired from since Ukranians are claiming this is the contrail from the buk missile, which could in turn give us a better idea of which roads the Buk missile system would've had to follow to get back to Russia, to see if the roads you suggested above make sense in this photo
 

Efftup

Senior Member.
It might well be that the separatists had more than one Buk available to them and are moving them ALL to try and show they didn't have any.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
But how do we know we are talking about the same piece of hardware since some of the photos show the Buk missile system on the back of a flatbed, and others show it driving down the street without the flatbed truck.

According to the Ukranians, there were multiple launchers that were removed:
http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/en/publish/article?art_id=129116&cat_id=35317
 

David Coulter

Senior Member.
Worth noting this is near the Ukrainian border, but this would be under Ukrainian government control (Kharkiv area). I doubt they'd be amenable to a border crossing... If it came from Donetsk then it's a very weird route to take.

From the video (and above analysis) it is clear that military equipment with Russian plates was being moved around in a hurry covered with tarpaulins. The sky/lighting seems to match the time stamp at that latitude (pinkish sky near civil twilight and fair weather cumulus is typical of Europe this time of year). Perhaps they were large artistic works being moved from eastern Ukraine only to be revealed in Moscow that matched the shape and size of BUK's? I think Putin is a bit naive concerning the situation in eastern Ukraine and social media in general in that there are a lot of people with smart phones that can upload images and videos that make his protestations of innocence look pretty lame to the rest of the world.
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
What aerial surveillance of the area is likely to going on right now by US/NATO/Ukraine, and will it be able to pick up truck movements? Could they have high flying drones, would a drone see enough detail at or above 30000 feet? Would the US have military satellites scanning the area right now and wouldn't any destruction of a missile launcher be observable from the air or orbit?
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
What aerial surveillance of the area is likely to going on right now by US/NATO/Ukraine, and will it be able to pick up truck movements? Could they have high flying drones, would a drone see enough detail at or above 30000 feet? Would the US have military satellites scanning the area right now and wouldn't any destruction of a missile launcher be observable from the air or orbit?

Given it's a bit of a hotspot, I think it is likely that the US must have some assets focussed on the area.

High resolution satellites are in low earth orbit, and so can only take images when they happen to pass over a region. Drones or spy planes could easily see trucks - but you've got to know where to look. And the weather might not allow this. You can just move things out under clouds, or at night.

So they can probably detect when something has moved (if they knew where to look), but not always follow where it moves to.
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
Are their laws saying they aren't allowed to look at anything over Russia? Would they avoid using evidence gathered that way because it shows they were over their airspace and would be an act of hostility?
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Are their laws saying they aren't allowed to look at anything over Russia? Would they avoid using evidence gathered that way because it shows they were over their airspace and would be an act of hostility?

I think any law would be more about what areas they can fly over, not taking photos. Any country can restrict the airspace. But you could still take photos from just over the border.
 

TEEJ

Senior Member.
A new claim has appeared in relation to the following video.




http://en.eurasianunion.ch/2014/07/19/transport-of-buk-system-to-russia-filmed-really/

So far just the claim and no photographic proof. If the claim was true it should be something that is easily verifiable. Russia Today have been running the video on a regular basis so it would something that they would be eager to debunk. I've had a look on Google Maps but the Krasnoarmeysk area is not ground view covered.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
Text from that image is found here: 0https://www.facebook.com/KNNUK/posts/735639363159197
Google Translated:
 

Jason

Senior Member
Are their laws saying they aren't allowed to look at anything over Russia? Would they avoid using evidence gathered that way because it shows they were over their airspace and would be an act of hostility?
I doubt drones will be used since there are SAM in the area, satellites will be their best bet.
 

Jason

Senior Member
It seems the daily mail is at it again. How do they keep getting all of these photos by the way. Ukranians are claiming this is proof the Russians did it. A russian blogger said the following;
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...litary-truck-carrying-BUK-M1-border-town.html


Offending launcher? A driver filmed this BUK launcher on the back of a military track rumbling back across the Russian border on Saturday



Claims: Ukrainian officials have seized the footage and labelled it a 'film of the BUK M1 in Russia, the one that shot the Boeing'



'For two kilometres, a blogger from Russia has been driving behind covered BUK 1M which, according to his words, had been driving from the Ukrainian border. His opinion it that is exactly that BUK that made the shot,' said one version spreading on the web.

The driver is heard saying: 'No kidding.'




 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
49 Horkoho road Krasnoarmejsk (address given in the link, not the translation that Mick posted)
Can't get a street view.
(horkoho seems to be google's spelling of gorkovo)
 

Joeybegood

New Member
I have yet to see any hard evidence that this plane was "shot down" at all. The claim that it was shot down was made very early on (the same day it came down I think) and this was spread around the media etc. to the point that it is being taken as fact. Historically, many more commercial airliners have been destroyed via a bomb on the plane than shot down by a missile. Given this, I am surprised that so much stock is being placed in the missile claim.
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
I have yet to see any hard evidence that this plane was "shot down" at all. The claim that it was shot down was made very early on (the same day it came down I think) and this was spread around the media etc. to the point that it is being taken as fact. Historically, many more commercial airliners have been destroyed via a bomb on the plane than shot down by a missile. Given this, I am surprised that so much stock is being placed in the missile claim.
What sort of hard evidence do you require? What sort of evidence do you have to support that it was a bomb and not a missile?
 

Bill

Senior Member.
this SAM no, some other SAMs very much yeah, an U2 was shot down flying at 70K feet half a century ago, you can bet they have better SAMs now
I have yet to see any hard evidence that this plane was "shot down" at all. The claim that it was shot down was made very early on (the same day it came down I think) and this was spread around the media etc. to the point that it is being taken as fact. Historically, many more commercial airliners have been destroyed via a bomb on the plane than shot down by a missile. Given this, I am surprised that so much stock is being placed in the missile claim.
None of the governments or militaries seem to be questioning the claim that the aircraft was shot down and no organization or government is taking credit for a bombing. What leads you believe that it was anything besides a civilian aircraft shot down by a SAM?
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
I wonder what sort of access control systems a BUK has?
As an absolute minimum I would expect some kind of PIN or password would be required before you can operate the weapon. The last thing you want when your military hardware falls into enemy hands is for it to be used against you.
Pretty much every doomsday device in the movies has a "self destruct" button
The unfortunate thing is, once you have physical access, access control is useless.

Most systems have a built in way to reset or bypass controls, because incompetence happens and you don't want a ten million dollar piece of hardware to brick itself because the guy you assigned to run it had a few too many last night. Those light up street signs that people occasionally hack, for example, usually have either a backdoor password, or a set of jumpers on the circuit board that can be crossed to reset the password to the factory default. In normal operation, there's supposed to be people there who will notice a hacker disassembling part of the sign and stop him, but if the hacker has access without anyone to watch him, there's nothing to stop him.

Military hardware's more secure, but again, the best access control systems in the world are only meant to make it visibly obvious when somebody is trying to break in. If they have unmonitored access, they already have control.

As I've said before, a lot of ex-Ukraine and ex-Soviet military guys with the rebels, at least some of them probably used the system and would know how to do this. And since they captured the whole base, there was probably documentation around somewhere.
 
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David Coulter

Senior Member.
I have yet to see any hard evidence that this plane was "shot down" at all. The claim that it was shot down was made very early on (the same day it came down I think) and this was spread around the media etc. to the point that it is being taken as fact. Historically, many more commercial airliners have been destroyed via a bomb on the plane than shot down by a missile. Given this, I am surprised that so much stock is being placed in the missile claim.

Lots of circumstantial evidence (deleted social media "bragging" posts by the shooters, some shot as debris was still falling). Intercepted communications. Radar and heat plume tracking by the US. Eyewitness accounts from currently inaccessible people in eastern Ukraine and western Russia that are posting photos and videos. Photographic and video evidence of BUK systems being rapidly moved out of Ukraine and away from the Russian border. Attempts to restrict access for official investigators. Removal of bodies and physical evidence from the scene by rebels and possibly Russian operatives. As pointed out, no denials from any party that it was a missile (just lame claims by Russia that it was a Ukrainian air-to-air missile).
 

Sgt.Tinfoil

Member
deleted social media "bragging" posts by the shooters, some shot as debris was still falling
I have been following this war for few weeks and _every_ day literaly some pro-separatists socialmedia/tweeters etc. have claimed to shoot something from the sky. For example I linked in another thread a video where supplies were dropped to Ukrainian army positions. Originally when I found the place I found the video they claimed that those are the crew of the plane which was just shot down.

But since you are claiming that "the shooters" did post something after the hit can you give some proof that it was actually them or not for example some over excited local who has twitter account seeing plane coming down and just making assumption that another Ukrainians Army plane coming down and tweeting so?


Intercepted communications.
The other argument is that the communication was altered from various other communications 0:33-1:09. (Note that this channel might be highly biased towards separatists. Might even be their "official" newschannel)

Eyewitness accounts from currently inaccessible people in eastern Ukraine and western Russia that are posting photos and videos.
In the early times of the cras the eye witnesses which I _read_ from different sites claimed that plane was followed by Ukrainian Army jets which according to them shot down the plane.

Photographic and video evidence of BUK systems being rapidly moved out of Ukraine and away from the Russian border.
To be honest I am not convinced with this. I am lacking evidence where the BUK system really was and where it was going.

Attempts to restrict access for official investigators
Agreed with this one. Then again in what excess this has been happened and what portions are true of the claims. For example there were reports how separatists shot at the investigators which turned out to be warning shot for the locals who tried to come too close to wreckage (probably looting). I would wait for investigators report before making too big claims.

Removal of bodies and physical evidence from the scene by rebels and possibly Russian operatives.
Don't know about this one. Honestly some claim that bodies were not removed thus showing what anmals Russians are because they leave bodies to be eaten by animals. Then again some people are complaining that they have moved the bodies. And what physical evidences are removed from wreckage and what is you base of claim of Russian operatives?
 

Joeybegood

New Member
(just lame claims by Russia that it was a Ukrainian air-to-air missile).

That's a value judgment right there. All other claims and 'evidence' could also be referred to as "lame claims by the Ukrainian and US governments". I don't view unverified Youtube videos as evidence of anything. The US claims of "heat plumes" etc. have yet to backed up by evidence (I'm sorry I'm not taking anyone's word in this situation given the vested interests involved). BUK systems being "rapidly moved out of Ukraine" is not proven either, and even if it is, it is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the plane was shot down given that it is a war zone and such movements are to be expected. Removal of evidence from the scene is normal after a plane crash, the rebels are, after all, in control of the area so that is their prerogative.
 

Joeybegood

New Member
What sort of evidence do you have to support that it was a bomb and not a missile?

I don't have any. My point is that from the very day of the crash, news media was already 'theorizing' that it was a missile. The idea has become all but established 'fact' now and yet there is no hard evidence. It is essentially a trial by media and the verdict is in it seems, at least as far as the public is concerned. That pretty irresponsible. Proper investigations into airplane crashes usually take months, and for good reason given the implications.
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
I don't have any. My point is that from the very day of the crash, news media was already 'theorizing' that it was a missile. The idea has become all but established 'fact' now and yet there is no hard evidence. It is essentially a trial by media and the verdict is in it seems, at least as far as the public is concerned. That pretty irresponsible. Proper investigations into airplane crashes usually take months, and for good reason given the implications.
What sort of hard evidence do you require?
 

David Coulter

Senior Member.
That's a value judgment right there. All other claims and 'evidence' could also be referred to as "lame claims by the Ukrainian and US governments". I don't view unverified Youtube videos as evidence of anything. The US claims of "heat plumes" etc. have yet to backed up by evidence (I'm sorry I'm not taking anyone's word in this situation given the vested interests involved). BUK systems being "rapidly moved out of Ukraine" is not proven either, and even if it is, it is not sufficient evidence to conclude that the plane was shot down given that it is a war zone and such movements are to be expected. Removal of evidence from the scene is normal after a plane crash, the rebels are, after all, in control of the area so that is their prerogative.

I am making a value judgement: the western authorities don't have a vested interested in covering up facts, the entities that "reportedly" shot down a civilian aircraft do have a vested interest in covering up facts. If you want to reserve judgement until all the results are released that is fine, but there will be some data that will not be released to the general public as the sources will be classified.

You should watch a few episodes of Aircrash Investigation (I think it is called "Mayday" in the US). Aircrash scenes are secured and all interested parties are allowed to investigate before aircraft parts are moved. International convention would have the US NTSB and Malaysian investigators on the ground immediately as the the aircraft was built in the US and operated by a Malaysian company. I wholeheartedly disagree that removal of aircraft parts is "their prerogative".
 
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