Russia and Ukraine Current Events

FatPhil said:
One of the sources, I forget which one, implied that these insurgents were being fed and fueled by Ukraine, but not armed as such.
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It's hard to imagine that citizens in a country applying to join the EU would be able to acquire fully functional tanks without a government permit.

in any other context, a country permitting its residents to do such a thing (instead of throwing them in jail) would be labeled a state sponsor of terrorism.

obviously it's much more logical to see the RDK and LSR as private military supporting Ukraine in the ongoing war, but Ukraine probably has to navigate restrictions attached to Western arms deliveries that prohibit it from seizing Russian territory (or restricts itself for fear of Russian response escalating) and therefore needs to deny official involvement.
 
Mendel said:
It's hard to imagine that citizens in a country applying to join the EU would be able to acquire fully functional tanks without a government permit.
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The funny thing is Ukrainian are trolling Russian in exactly the same way Russians did when they invaded Donbass and Crimea in 2014, things such as:

"They are just local farmers rising up against the goverment". "But how did they get tanks, then?". "They bought them in local shops".

(sorry for not giving any links, I stumbled upon those sentences browsing around and I cannot find them again now).
 
What I am particularly unhappy about is that Ukraine is giving prominence and limelight to what must very clearly be labeled neonazis and white supremacists - one of the two things Putin claimed to want to root out in Ukraine. The leaders of this group, for example this guy by the nom-de-guerre "White Rex" are well networked with the extreme, racist, militant right in several EU countries. We should consider the existance of such groups as a very serious threat, and not as friends of our friend Ukraine.

To attack Russia with 1 (one!) tank of course has to be considered trolling, little more than a PsyOp. The stated goal of protecting civilians on the UA side of the border from shelling can be dismissed out of hand: The incursion was too small, to limited in depth, to even get to any artillery positions, and since it must have been clear that they would in short order retreat or be liquidated by Russian defenses that eventially would show up, there cannot have been a speck of hope to prevent any artillery from being fired.

So, next time, they say, the incursion might get bigger, deeper, more sustained.
Sure.
That's PR.
 
Oystein said:
To attack Russia with 1 (one!) tank of course has to be considered trolling, little more than a PsyOp.
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I agree that the raid was too small to have a lasting effect.
However, ISW reported, "two tanks, an armored personnel carrier, and nine other armored vehicles crossed the international border". Were they wrong about the number of tanks?
 
Highly excerpted:
Article:
Denis Kapustin, who leads the Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), [..] is known as a Russian nationalist, and his group openly says it wants a mono-ethnic Russian state.

At the news briefing Denis Kapustin denied reports that his fighters were using weapons provided by Western allies to Ukraine to help defend itself against Russia's full-scale invasion launched in February 2022.

Mr Kapustin said that Ukraine only provided support to the RDK with medical supplies, petrol and food.

Asked on Wednesday about reported neo-Nazis in the group's ranks, its leader responded that "it's all a question of perception" and went on to describe himself as having "traditionalist" and "patriotic" views.

In 2020, a Ukrainian investigative website alleged he had links to neo-Nazi groups and Mr Kapustin has spoken in the past of belonging to a movement of football hooligans.
 
Mendel said:
It's hard to imagine that citizens in a country applying to join the EU would be able to acquire fully functional tanks without a government permit.

in any other context, a country permitting its residents to do such a thing (instead of throwing them in jail) would be labeled a state sponsor of terrorism.

obviously it's much more logical to see the RDK and LSR as private military supporting Ukraine in the ongoing war, but Ukraine probably has to navigate restrictions attached to Western arms deliveries that prohibit it from seizing Russian territory (or restricts itself for fear of Russian response escalating) and therefore needs to deny official involvement.
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Has any credible source identified the specific tank(s) involved? T-72? T-90?

With the sheer number of Russian tanks destroyed/damaged/abandoned in over a year of fighting, it's not outside the realm of probability insurgents could have captured and repaired or cobbled together a tank or two. I remember photos from earlier in the war of Ukrainian farmers towing away damaged Russian tanks with tractors.
 
Duke said:
Has any credible source identified the specific tank(s) involved? T-72? T-90?

With the sheer number of Russian tanks destroyed/damaged/abandoned in over a year of fighting, it's not outside the realm of probability insurgents could have captured and repaired or cobbled together a tank or two. I remember photos from earlier in the war of Ukrainian farmers towing away damaged Russian tanks with tractors.
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I'm pretty sure that one of the brief and highly excerpted video clips I saw in the last couple of days had at least one vehicle with a painted-over Zwastika on it. Reports did mention that they'd captured a new one whilst on the russian side of the border, perhaps it was that one, but it might have been what they first crossed the border with. Someone with fuller footage could perhaps check. (And even then, the whole crossed-out motif could have been painted afresh, it doesn't prove provenance.)
 
FatPhil said:
Reports did mention that they'd captured a new one whilst on the russian side of the border,
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The BBC article I quoted says that was an APC. Undoubtedly some people would call an APC a "tank" as well, but the same BBC article says they crossed the border with 2 tanks and 1 APC, so...
 
Article:
Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) reportedly conducted another raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 1. Geolocated footage published on June 1 shows alleged LSR personnel operating near Novaya Tavolzhanka (3.5km from the Russian-Ukrainian border) and LSR and RDK personnel striking Russian positions near the settlement as well as Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast (7km from the Russian-Ukrainian border).[5]

Article:
Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) conducted another limited raid into Belgorod Oblast on June 4 and are reportedly continuing to operate in a Russian border settlement.

Apparently these raids are a fixture now?
 
Article:
Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian MoD for falsely claiming that Russian troops destroyed a Leopard tank in Ukraine. The Russian MoD posted footage June 6 that claims to show a Russian strike destroying a Leopard tank.[68] Russian milbloggers were quick to notice, however, that closer examination of the footage shows that the object resembles a piece of agricultural equipment and suggested that Russian forces actually destroyed a John Deere tractor.[69]

;)
 
Article:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed.

Early reports following Prigozhin's statements suggest that Russian internal security forces are activating in response to Prigozhin's statements and possible Wagner moves, primarily in Moscow and Rostov, and the Kremlin appears opposed to Prigozhin's actions. Prigozhin set informational conditions for this effort earlier in the day by accusing the Russian MoD and unnamed oligarchs of deceiving Putin and the Russian public in order to launch the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Prigozhin likely intends to truly conduct an armed rebellion against the Russian MoD, rather than expecting Kremlin support to compel MoD leadership changes or only escalating rhetorically. It is therefore most likely that Prigozhin fully intends for Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against Moscow.

An armed Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on Russia's war effort in Ukraine. Prigozhin's apparent start of an armed rebellion is the culmination of his campaign to retain control over his military forces, and he likely views the rebellion as an existential survival effort. Prigozhin's likely intention was to gain the allegiance of senior Russian officers and military personnel, but he is unlikely to secure sufficient military support considering that Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin denounced Prigozhin's call for armed rebellion. Even if the Wagner Group can credibly threaten the MoD, Putin is incredibly unlikely to acquiesce to a successful effort by Prigozhin to topple the MoD.


Prigozhin released an interview in which he stated that the Russian MoD intentionally deceived the Russian public and Putin about an impending Ukrainian offensive with NATO support in 2022 and about the increase in Ukrainian aggression before the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.[11] Prigozhin asserted that the situation in eastern Ukraine on February 24, 2022, was no different than the previous eight years of hostilities.[12] Prigozhin suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was prepared to negotiate with the Kremlin but that the Russian leadership refused to abandon their maximalist positions.[13] Prigozhin accused the Russian miliary leadership of launching the full-scale invasion for self-promotion and claimed that Shoigu advocated for the invasion in order to achieve a higher rank and state awards.[14] Prigozhin accused Russia's oligarchs of supporting the invasion of Ukraine for similar reasons of personal benefit.

The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin.

More details in the article. Obviously, the situation is developing. German news is reporting Prigozhin's claims that Wagner is moving towards Rostov, but cautions that reports can't be verified independently right now.
 
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British Intelligence Update:

Source: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1672505632325238784

What they mean by "almost certainly":
Article:
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Just reading this: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/24/europe/russia-putin-wagner-prigozhin-analysis-intl/index.html
And these sentences jumped out:
External Quote:
This is not the first time this spring we have seen Moscow look weak. The drone attack on the Kremlin in May must have caused the elite around Putin to question how on earth the capital's defenses were so weak. Days later, elite country houses were targeted by yet more Ukrainian drones.
Was it proven that they were Ukrainian, the last I heard there was no conclusive evidence, and I think there had been a reasonably clear denial.
 
FatPhil said:
Was it proven that they were Ukrainian, the last I heard there was no conclusive evidence, and I think there had been a reasonably clear denial.
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Some seem to have been made in Ukraine, which would make them Ukrainian in a way:
Article:
Several posts on social media have claimed that one of the weapons used to attack Moscow was a "Beaver" drone - a long-range attack aircraft said to be recently manufactured by Ukraine.

Steve Wright cross-examined images of these drones against the verified footage of the strikes on Moscow. He concluded the two examples are consistent in design and the Beaver was "most likely" used.

The denial was ambiguous:
Article:
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said Tuesday: "Of course, we enjoy watching and predicting an increase in attacks. But of course, we have nothing to do directly with it."

Alexander Khinshtein, a member of the Russian Parliament from Putin's United Russia party, said Tuesday's drone attack on Moscow was "a new reality we will have to recognize."

"Undoubtedly, sabotage and terrorist attacks by Ukraine will only grow. We need to drastically strengthen defense and security measures, especially in the area of countering drones," Khinshtein said.

So it could be a similar situation as with the Belgorod raids: it could be independent groups carrying out the attacks, but Ukraine might be supporting them.
 
Mendel said:
British Intelligence Update:

Source: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1672505632325238784

What they mean by "almost certainly":
Article:
View attachment 60002
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Reminds me of the "putsch" attempted by some elements of the French military against Charles de Gaulle and the French government in 1961. The attempted coup was a result of de Gaulle's decision to abandon Algeria. Here's a famous photo of French tanks that had been rushed back to Paris from occupation duty in Germany to defend Paris.
0137999-CHARS-DEVANT-LASSEMBLEE-NATIONALE-A-PARIS-Tanks-in-front-of-french-National-assembly-i...jpg
CHARS DEVANT L'ASSEMBLEE NATIONALE A PARIS. Tanks in front of french National assembly in Paris during military rebellion in Algiers Algeria during the war, april 24, 1961.

External Quote:
On 22 April all flights and landings were forbidden in Parisian airfields; an order was given to the Army to resist the coup "by all means".[3] The following day, President De Gaulle made a famous speech on television, dressed in his World War II uniform (he was 70 years old and long since a civilian head of state) ordering the French people and military to help him.[4]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algiers_putsch_of_1961
 
A major development in the course of the war.

Article:

Rebel Russian mercenaries barrel towards Moscow

ROSTOV-ON-DON/VORONEZH, Russia, June 24 (Reuters) - Mutinous Russian mercenary fighters barrelled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, with Russia's military firing on them from the air but seemingly incapable of slowing their lightning advance.

Facing the first serious challenge to his grip on power of his 23-year rule, President Vladimir Putin vowed to crush an armed mutiny he compared to Russia's Civil War a century ago.

The fighters of the Wagner private army run by former Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin were already most of the way to the capital, having captured the city of Rostov and set off on an 1,100 km (680 mile) race to Moscow.
 
Article:

Ukrainian Forces Liberate Territories Occupied by Pro-Russia Separatists in Donetsk Region Amid Wagner Rebellion – Report

In a significant development, Ukrainian news agencies have reported the liberation of territories near the city of Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region that had been under the occupation of pro-Russia separatists since 2014. The operation, led by Commander Oleksandr Tarnavsky of the Tavria operational strategic grouping, has shown tangible successes and progress.
 
Article:

Wagner chief says he ordered his Russian mercenaries to halt march on Moscow and return to Ukraine


The head of the private Russian military force Wagner said Saturday he has ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to their field camps in Ukraine to avoid shedding Russian blood.

The announcement from Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin's leadership in his more than two decades in power.

Moscow had braced for the arrival of a private army led by the rebellious mercenary commander by erecting checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops on its southern edge. Red Square was shut down, and the mayor urged motorists to stay off some roads.

Prigozhin said that while his men were just 200 kilometers (120 miles) from Moscow, he decided to turn them back to avoid "shedding Russian blood."

He didn't say whether Moscow has responded to his demand to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin.

The announcement followed a statement from the office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko saying that he had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin after discussing the issue with Putin. Prigozhin agreed to halt the advance in a proposed settlement that contains security guarantees for Wagner troops, Lukashenko's office said. It didn't elaborate.
 
Article:
Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will move to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to end an armed mutiny that Prigozhin had led against Russia's military leadership, the Kremlin said on Saturday.

Peskov said the criminal case that had been opened against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and that the Wagner fighters who had taken part in his "march for justice" would not face any action, in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

Fighters who had not taken part would sign contracts with the Defence Ministry, which has been seeking to bring all autonomous volunteer forces under its control by July 1.

Although Putin had earlier vowed to punish those who participated in the mutiny, Peskov said the agreement had had the "higher goal" of avoiding confrontation and bloodshed.
 
Mendel said:
Article:
Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin will move to Belarus under a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to end an armed mutiny that Prigozhin had led against Russia's military leadership, the Kremlin said on Saturday.

Peskov said the criminal case that had been opened against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and that the Wagner fighters who had taken part in his "march for justice" would not face any action, in recognition of their previous service to Russia.

Fighters who had not taken part would sign contracts with the Defence Ministry, which has been seeking to bring all autonomous volunteer forces under its control by July 1.

Although Putin had earlier vowed to punish those who participated in the mutiny, Peskov said the agreement had had the "higher goal" of avoiding confrontation and bloodshed.
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Putin doesn't strike me as a "forgive & forget" kinda guy.
 
LilWabbit said:
Article:

Wagner chief says he ordered his Russian mercenaries to halt march on Moscow and return to Ukraine


The head of the private Russian military force Wagner said Saturday he has ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow and retreat to their field camps in Ukraine to avoid shedding Russian blood.

The announcement from Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to defuse a dramatically escalating crisis that represented the most significant challenge to President Vladimir Putin's leadership in his more than two decades in power.

Moscow had braced for the arrival of a private army led by the rebellious mercenary commander by erecting checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops on its southern edge. Red Square was shut down, and the mayor urged motorists to stay off some roads.

Prigozhin said that while his men were just 200 kilometers (120 miles) from Moscow, he decided to turn them back to avoid "shedding Russian blood."

He didn't say whether Moscow has responded to his demand to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin.

The announcement followed a statement from the office of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko saying that he had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin after discussing the issue with Putin. Prigozhin agreed to halt the advance in a proposed settlement that contains security guarantees for Wagner troops, Lukashenko's office said. It didn't elaborate.
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Its all shit houses and showboats, speaking of which I return to ukraine soonish (I bought my daughter a stupid gift yesterday, I didnt get her anything for her 1st birthday a few months ago, due to lack of cash and also me knowing hey at that age they dont give a shit) but truth be told I couldnt express everything or anything to her, since she dont talk :P, but since I was going I felt I had to give her something, no matter how lame, so I got something lame for her.
I took this photo a couple of days ago, knowing I was going. me &my GF & our child
leia.jpg

Im calm

and last year, I think this is the day before I left in march. I was very very scared but shitting always even though not eating
leia2.jpg

remember guys there are real people involved in this totally senseless war.
I can remember the above photo so well, holding my girl. even though Im in my 50s and have seen a lot, I was shit scared, had this weird taste in my mouth constantly

I thought then, if not me then who? and later on after I returned.
personal anecdotes when I was there I met so many ukraine kids of 15-20 going off to the front lines.
none were proud, they just had to do it!
NOTE - they did not want to do it, they had to do it.
That last sentecnce is in its banality so powerful
You may think them stupid or brave but what struck me is the insantity of these kids going off to be martyres

sorry I cant convey my feelings
 
Duke said:
Putin doesn't strike me as a "forgive & forget" kinda guy.
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The fact that they struck 'a deal' with Lukashenka seemingly mediating (very hard to tell what's really going on) suggests they both got scared, and that Lukashenka played his card well for asserting his own role in the overall equation. Until now he's merely seemed a puppet of Putin.

Are Prigozhine and Lukashenka in cahoots? Or is Putin using Lukashenka to rein Prigozhine in and have him punished? I think Prigozhine would have suspected it and not accepted the deal. Or is Lukashenka the only real winner here? Many questions and more.
 
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captancourgette said:
Its all shit houses and showboats, speaking of which I return to ukraine soonish (I bought my daughter a stupid gift yesterday, I didnt get her anything for her 1st birthday a few months ago, due to lack of cash and also me knowing hey at that age they dont give a shit) but truth be told I couldnt express everything or anything to her, since she dont talk :p, but since I was going I felt I had to give her something, no matter how lame, so I got something lame for her.
I took this photo a couple of days ago, knowing I was going. me &my GF & our child
View attachment 60010
Im calm

and last year, I think this is the day before I left in march. I was very very scared but shitting always even though not eating View attachment 60011
remember guys there are real people involved in this totally senseless war.
I can remember the above photo so well, holding my girl. even though Im in my 50s and have seen a lot, I was shit scared, had this weird taste in my mouth constantly

I thought then, if not me then who? and later on after I returned.
personal anecdotes when I was there I met so many ukraine kids of 15-20 going off to the front lines.
none were proud, they just had to do it!
NOTE - they did not want to do it, they had to do it.
That last sentecnce is in its banality so powerful
You may think them stupid or brave but what struck me is the insantity of these kids going off to be martyres

sorry I cant convey my feelings
Click to expand...

Thanks for sharing your sentiments and the heartfelt pics of your beautiful family. Any chances of getting them out to live with you in NZ?

P.S. Hard to believe you're in your 50s, well done, mate.
 
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If true, Putin indeed had to cave in to Prigozhine's demands:

Article:
According to Russian State Media, Major Changes to the Leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense including changes to the current Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov have reportedly been Agreed upon in order to Stop the March of the Wagner PMC Group towards the Capital of Moscow; these Negotiations have also reportedly included the assured "Security of the Wagner Group."
 
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US officials saw signs Prigozhin was planning challenge to Russian military but surprised by rapid escalation

By CNN
9News Staff
9:46am Jun 25, 2023
https://www.9news.com.au/world/russ...calation/1a17ba14-97c6-4231-a148-ee319c8862d4
US intelligence officials believe Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the private Wagner military group, had been planning a major challenge to Russia's military leadership for quite some time, but it was unclear what the ultimate aim would be, three people familiar with the matter told CNN.
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US and Western intelligence officials saw signs Prigozhin was making preparations for such a move, including by massing weapons and ammunition, one Western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence said.
Click to expand...

Wagner had 4 weeks to plan rest stock pile recourses then used alleged wayward missile strike on troops as trigger


my take is 24 hours ago putin and wagner were mortal enemies & nothing has changed. Putin & Wagner both just buying time over nite and see how a new day allegiances unfold any agreement made yesterday have no bonfide.
Prigozhin knows he is marked target forever & Putin will kill him as soon as possible.


Summary editorial


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxDykKhCYAA&ab_channel=AndersPuckNielsen
 
LilWabbit said:
If true, Putin indeed had to cave in to Prigozhine's demands:

Article:
According to Russian State Media, Major Changes to the Leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense including changes to the current Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov have reportedly been Agreed upon in order to Stop the March of the Wagner PMC Group towards the Capital of Moscow; these Negotiations have also reportedly included the assured "Security of the Wagner Group."
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"According to Russian state media" means there have to be primary sources to cite if it's true.
 
ISW's update is very detailed on the Wagner operation today. Here are my highlights:
Article:
The Wagner Group encircled the Russian Southern Military District (SMD)'s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don and drove to within 330km of Moscow City on June 23 and 24, prior to the announcement of the deal.

Wagner forces may have shot down up to three Mi-8 MTPR electronic warfare helicopters, one Mi-8 helicopter, one Ka-52 helicopter, one Mi-35 helicopter, one Mi-28 helicopter, and one An-26/Il-28 transport aircraft, resulting in the deaths of at least 13 pilots and airmen - and one of the single deadliest days for the Russian air force of the war in Ukraine to date.[11]

Wagner Group columns on the M4 highway possessed a substantial amount of heavy equipment. Various milbloggers claimed that the Wagner column was comprised of up to 4,000 personnel and between 40 to 50 pieces of equipment, including MRAPs, T-90M main battle tanks, BMP infantry fighting vehicles, Pantsir air defense systems, and Grad MLRS systems.[17] One milblogger remarked that Wagner's apparent combination of a fast-moving convoy protected by a layered mobile air defense umbrella (comprised of Pantsirs and MANPADs) that effectively defended ground forces from Russian government aircraft was reminiscent of Wagner's tactics during previous operations in Libya, though the Wagner Group's theoretical ability to sustain independent operations in Russia is unclear.[18]

The Kremlin struggled to cohere an effective rapid response to Wagner's advances, highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine.

I suspect that the deal was struck because Wagner could have actually reached Moscow and fought there (bad for Putin), but did not garner enough political and military support to sustain the rebellion (bad for Prigozhin).
 
Mendel said:
I suspect that the deal was struck because Wagner could have actually reached Moscow and fought there (bad for Putin), but did not garner enough political and military support to sustain the rebellion (bad for Prigozhin).
Click to expand...

Indeed it seems that at this point both realized it would have resulted in a protracted bloodbath in Moscow that would have destabilized Russia and benefited neither. Both would have also quickly lost all support were Moscow to become a warzone.
 
Mendel said:
Nah, he's not. I wouldn't be surprised if Prigozhin met with an "accident" in the future, perhaps involving some toothpaste?
Click to expand...
Article:
The Foreign Ministry expressed the certainty that "in the near future the situation will be resolved in a way worthy of the ages-old wisdom of the Russian people and the Russian state", and that "all goals and tasks of the special military operation will be achieved".
 
LilWabbit said:
Thanks for sharing your sentiments and the heartfelt pics of your beautiful family. Any chances of getting them out to live with you in NZ?
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you'll never take me alive suckers
In seriousness nah, hard to explain (these photos are in barcelona, i.e. I have no ties to ukraine, I have friends there dating back etc but I go cause its the right thing to do, and my mantra is always to be on the good side of history) i.e I might look ukrainian but I dont think I am, I need to take a genetic test. Im curious
I do hope to have a beer with my daughter when she is 20 or so in NZ, but not before! Im not anti kiwi but no desire to be there (yes I am in my 50s, and yes I look a lot younger than I am. good genes I guess plus a life of working 60 hour weeks, non stop)

Im not alone with being another old fart in ukraine, whilst I rarely take pictures or videos I did have to take this, I asked him to repeat it, so I could video it (& yes hes ok with me showing this), even though our ideology is very different we bonded on the long train journey back from Kyiv,

hes even older than me & also seen some stuff over the years, we traded tales haha, he was in that barracks that got blown up early on (near poland) he left the day before it got hit, so lost a fair few people that he knew there, (dont believe the russian BS that it was a camp of western mercenaries, total BS). Good people got killed that day and I mean good people

I guess what Im implying here in my roundabout way is, you are never too old to do it, In fact the older the better, if you can replace a young kid, do it. In ukraine I met a lot of literal kids going off to fight which really hurt me, this war was started by some old fuck who wanted to get the old gang of lands together, let the old farts die, not these children that have just begun to live, god I met some boys Im sure they were virgins and here they are with a rifle in their hands. Really really sad

Btw Over the next few weeks Im gonna avoid Ukraine news (of course I will read it in a cursory take) but don't want to invest mkuch time, just enjoy life (took my daughter this morning to the park to see las tortugas, oddly turtle is one of the few words she saiz (in english) or catala, she has a vocab of not even 10 words, and for some reason turtle is one and butterfly another (both in english), she pronounces bitte which is cute. Gos (dog) is another word now I think of it, not perro, but thats in catala one of the 10. Beautiful red haired freak
Just live life, which I recommend for its the only one you have. Don't die with the thought 'I should've' Die with the knowledge 'I did'
well enuf preaching 'ombres
 
perhaps some truth and part why attack shut down and perhaps a tactical error not to see this as FSB counter measure


Russian security forces raid houses of Wagner mercenaries to prevent them from joining Prigozhin

Sun, June 25, 2023 at 3:31 AM


news.yahoo.com

Russian security forces raid houses of Wagner mercenaries to prevent them from joining Prigozhin

Russian security forces have begun to conduct massive raids on the residences of current and former mercenaries of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) and are threatening them with being held accountable for joining Yevgeny Prigozhin's militants heading for Moscow.
news.yahoo.com
news.yahoo.com



additional info
[h3][/h3]

The Spectator Index

@spectatorindex

[h3][/h3]

BREAKING: The Telegraph reports, according to UK security sources, that Russian intelligence agencies threatened to harm families of Wagner Group leaders before Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow.

 
derwoodii said:
BREAKING: The Telegraph reports, according to UK security sources, that Russian intelligence agencies threatened to harm families of Wagner Group leaders before Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow.
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The Telegraph:
Article:
Russian intelligence services threatened to harm the families of Wagner leaders before Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow, according to UK security sources.

It has also been assessed that the mercenary force had only 8,000 fighters rather than the 25,000 claimed and faced likely defeat in any attempt to take the Russian capital.

Rating for The Telegraph:
Article:
Overall, we rate The Telegraph [...] Mixed for factual reporting due to poor sourcing of information and some failed fact checks.

If it's true, other major news outlets are going to pick the story up once they confirm it via their own sources.
 
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derwoodii said:
perhaps some truth and part why attack shut down and perhaps a tactical error not to see this as FSB counter measure


Russian security forces raid houses of Wagner mercenaries to prevent them from joining Prigozhin

Sun, June 25, 2023 at 3:31 AM


news.yahoo.com

Russian security forces raid houses of Wagner mercenaries to prevent them from joining Prigozhin

Russian security forces have begun to conduct massive raids on the residences of current and former mercenaries of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) and are threatening them with being held accountable for joining Yevgeny Prigozhin's militants heading for Moscow.
news.yahoo.com
news.yahoo.com



additional info
[h3][/h3]

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BREAKING: The Telegraph reports, according to UK security sources, that Russian intelligence agencies threatened to harm families of Wagner Group leaders before Prigozhin called off his advance on Moscow.

Click to expand...
Not a surprise, the Russians have used similar tactics in the past. A family member of a Hezbollah leader responsible for kidnapping Soviet diplomats in Lebanon back in the 80s was captured and brutalized. The West had citizens held for years in Lebanon, the Russians got their people released in relatively short order.

External Quote:
Parts of the man's body, the paper said, were then sent to the Hezbollah leader with a warning that he would lose other relatives in a similar fashion if the three remaining Soviet diplomats were not immediately released. They were quickly freed.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1986-01-07-mn-13892-story.html
 
External Quote:
Summary of Prigozhin's 26 June address to clarify the situation: it was to demonstrate protest against the "destruction of PMC Wagner, not toppling the Russian authorities":

What were the prerequisites for the March for Justice?
- PMC Wagner carries out tasks around the world. It was meant to stop existing on 1 July 2023. "Employees" all refused to sign the contract with MoD, only 1-2% decided to join the Russian army.

- The original plan was to go to Rostov on 30 July and transfer all vehicles to MoD, which were ready for transport.

- Despite any aggression, Wagner suffered a missile attack, followed by helicopter attack. Around 30 PMC Wagner fighters died. This triggered an immediate decision to move out early and respond militarily.

- Throughout the 24-hour march, one column went to Moscow, another to Rostov. They made 780 km of progress in one day. They regret being forced to attack the army aircraft but the bombs were dropped which caused the response. During the march, all military objects on the way were blocked and disarmed. None of the military have died on the ground.

- The objective was to not allow destruction of Wagner and take to responsiblity those who with their unprofessional actions made a huge number of mistakes during the SMO. All the military met along the way supported this.

- Wagner stopped when the advanced storm unit deployed artillery, conducted reconnaissance and realised a lot of blood will be shed in an upcoming battle. They decided that demonstration of the protest was enough, and turned around.

- Factors that made Wagner turn around: first, they didn't want to shed Russian blood. Secondly, they wanted to demonstrate their portest, not overtake the authority in Russia.

- Lukashenko offered to find solutions for further legal operation of Wagner legally. Columns turned aroound and went back to field camps.

- The march showed many things demonstrated before. Serious secruity concerns around the country. All military bases and airfields were blocked.

- If actions on 24 Feb 2022 were done by forces as trained as Wagner, the special operation could have ended in 1 day. This shows the level of organisation that the Russian army should be following.

Audio: t.me/concordgroup_official/1…
via: https://tweet.lambda.dance/wartranslated/status/1673345844148314112#m
The audio link is to:
Source: https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304
(I can't view telegram, so unverified)
 
External Quote:
Imagery published on social media has confirmed that a Russian Air Force Ilyushin Il-22M airborne command post platform was among several military aircraft shot down inside Russia in an apparent attempted coup by the Wagner Private Military Co.
https://aviationweek.com/defense-sp...rces-shoot-down-russian-airborne-command-post

AW&ST is one of the most trusted sources in the world when it comes to all things aviation related, so I now believe the story. I'd say this ups the ante, if I was Prigozhin I'd be looking over my shoulder.
 
Last edited:
derwoodii said:

Russian security forces raid houses of Wagner mercenaries to prevent them from joining Prigozhin

Sun, June 25, 2023 at 3:31 AM


news.yahoo.com
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Hmmm.
Article:
Auch die russischen Behörden gehen weiter gegen die Wagner-Organisation in Russland vor. In St. Petersburg, dem Stabsquartier Prigoschins, gab es nach Angaben dortiger Medien Razzien in den Büroräumen.
External Quote:
The Russian authorities continue to move against the Wagner organisation in Russia. In St. Petersburg, the offices of Wagner headquarters were searched.
And that's what the yahoo news picture seems to show.
i've not seen evidence that families of Wagner members have been pressured.
 
Mendel said:
I've not seen evidence that families of Wagner members have been pressured
Click to expand...
Neither have I, but it would be consistent with Russian/Soviet traditions. In WWII, when Leningrad was under siege and Marshall Zhukov had been put in charge of the defending forces, he ordered his subordinate commanders:

Make it clear to all troops that all the families of those who surrender to the enemy will be shot, and they themselves will be shot upon return from prison.
Click to expand...

Source: Beevor, Antony. The Second World War (p. 204). Orion. Kindle Edition. Original source in Russian State Archives, according to Beevor's notes to p. 204.
 
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