Russia and Ukraine Current Events

LilWabbit

Senior Member
The S-300 uses semi-active radar homing: the target is illuminated by a radar and the missile homes in on the radar reflection. But it's impossible to illuminate an object on the ground with a radar (unless the radar is airborne...

Or at an elevation in the nearby topography which doesn't even have to be that high if the target landscape is mostly flat farmlands.

On a fully automated mode such errors could occur (from the same S-300 article): "All tasks – detection, tracking, target setting, target designation, development of target designation, target acquisition, maintenance, capture, tracking and missile guidance, and assessment of results of firing system – are capable of being dealt with automatically."
 

Duke

Active Member
Most SAMs use a proximity fuse, including the S-300 I assume. So if the self-destruct on this particular S-300 malfunctioned as has been theorized, regardless of whether it was still actively tracking or following an unguided ballistic trajectory, wouldn't it have detonated in the air as it approached the ground? That is, unless an overage proximity fuse failed as well.
 

NorCal Dave

Senior Member.
Now I can't do that calculation, but if that probability is infinitesimally small, you should consider the possibility that Przewodow was deliberately targeted

I don't understand.

Russia has been firing hundreds of missiles, including S300s, cruise missiles, drones and anything else at non-military and infrastructure targets throughout Ukraine for the past month, including one would presume, some near the Polish border.

Ukraine has an assortment of anti-missile countermeasures, including older Soviet era S300s, that are fired in response to the Russian barrages.

It doesn't seem odd that at least one of these old S300s might drift off course and end up in Poland, unfortunately striking near a tractor.

How, and why would either side target a Polish tractor?

How: While a Surface to Air (SA) missile designed to hit aircraft, like the old S300, can be lobbed at ground targets like a power plant, can they be successfully guided to something like a tractor on the ground? Doesn't seem likely, but I'll let other more knowledgably folks weigh in.

If the S300 is incapable of targeting something like a tractor even though the Przewodow area was targeted, then it was just an unfortunate incident that the tractor was hit. In that case it would be indistinguishable from a stray missile striking a tractor.

Why: What is served by targeting and striking 2 Polish guys on a tractor? Russia would do it just to get NATO more excited and involved? Though Putin is sometimes hard to predict, anything that increases NATO involvement seems counterproductive.

Ukraine purposely targeted Poland in a false flag operation to drag Poland further into the conflict? Poland is already one of Ukraine's biggest supporters, and a false flag operation is very risky.

Giving the number of missiles flying around in that area and the number targeting non-military areas throughout Ukraine, an unfortunate accident seems completely plausible.
 

LilWabbit

Senior Member
Giving the number of missiles flying around in that area and the number targeting non-military areas throughout Ukraine, an unfortunate accident seems completely plausible.

I think the above paragraph by Dave captures the salient point irrespective of what the exact cause and likelihood of the S-300 (or its shrapnel) hitting a tractor are.
 

Henkka

Active Member
It doesn't seem odd that at least one of these old S300s might drift off course and end up in Poland
You can use the exact same logic to understand what I was saying. No, it's not odd that if lots of missiles are being fired near the border, at least one would end up in Poland.

And similarly, if lots of missiles end up in Poland, it's not odd that one would strike a person. But if only one crosses over, it's very unlikely that it would strike a person, because the area is like 99% empty fields. That is unless there's some mechanism in the missile that would make it more likely, like something that LilWabbit was suggesting. I don't know if that's the case or not.

But we can end it here, I don't think there's really anything more to say about it... There's no way for anyone here to prove if Przewodow was intentionally targeted, or if it was just an unfortunate accident.
 

DavidB66

Senior Member
There's no way for anyone here to prove if Przewodow was intentionally targeted, or if it was just an unfortunate accident.
There is a third possibility: that the missile was intended to land in Poland, perhaps in the general area of Przewodo, but not to kill anyone. A combination of intentional targeting and unfortunate accident.

I don't think this is at all likely (lack of motive, etc), but somewhat more likely than deliberately aiming to kill people, with all the complications that would involve.

Incidentally, having looked at a map of that part of Poland, I don't think it is wildly improbable that a stray missile would randomly hit a house, a vehicle, etc. It's rural, but it's not the Australian Outback. It's a fertile farming area with a lot of villages strung out along the secondary roads.
 

Duke

Active Member
 Article

Moscow may soon be deploying a new weapon in the Ukraine war – the T-14 Armata Main Battle Tank.

It is equipped with an anti-drone protection system, advanced sensors, data networking, onboard drones, and a high degree of automation. It is built on the ‘Armata’ Universal Combat Platform which can be used to create larger armoured vehicles, as per the report.

As per MSN, the tank has fully-digitised equipment and an isolated armoured capsule for the crew. It can also launch mini-drones and has an unmanned turret, which makes it less vulnerable to anti-tank missiles.
Content from External Source
https://www.firstpost.com/explainer...chines-could-be-devastating-11674211.html/amp

I remember reading about this tank (in Jane's?) back before COVID, and since Feb have been looking for some source indicating its use in Ukraine. If this Indian source is to be believed, it hasn't yet been used in Ukraine, but could be soon.

At this point of the conflict, I don't understand why the Russians would introduce T-14s into Ukraine. You'd think they'd be concerned about one of them being captured by the Ukrainians, giving NATO an opportunity to have it analyzed by Western technical experts.
 

NorCal Dave

Senior Member.
 Article

Moscow may soon be deploying a new weapon in the Ukraine war – the T-14 Armata Main Battle Tank.

It is equipped with an anti-drone protection system, advanced sensors, data networking, onboard drones, and a high degree of automation. It is built on the ‘Armata’ Universal Combat Platform which can be used to create larger armoured vehicles, as per the report.

As per MSN, the tank has fully-digitised equipment and an isolated armoured capsule for the crew. It can also launch mini-drones and has an unmanned turret, which makes it less vulnerable to anti-tank missiles.
Content from External Source
https://www.firstpost.com/explainer...chines-could-be-devastating-11674211.html/amp

I remember reading about this tank (in Jane's?) back before COVID, and since Feb have been looking for some source indicating its use in Ukraine. If this Indian source is to be believed, it hasn't yet been used in Ukraine, but could be soon.

At this point of the conflict, I don't understand why the Russians would introduce T-14s into Ukraine. You'd think they'd be concerned about one of them being captured by the Ukrainians, giving NATO an opportunity to have it analyzed by Western technical experts.

I wasn't sure I would post these, but now that you bring up the T-14, I'll share a few.

While exactly what's happening on the ground in Ukraine may be unclear, I think it's safe to say it's not going well for Russia. The source ISW, which Mendel often shares here, seems to be reliable and has shown Russia in multiple retreats and pull backs over the last 2 months. Ukraine clerly seems to be on the offensive.

However, I have been getting multiple stories on my news feed suggesting the Russians are in fact winning and are about to use deadly new weapons, like the mighty T-14. All these stories come from the Hindustan Times of India. At first I started noticing them because of the almost comic book like headlines for the stories. Going on memory they included stuff like: "Putin's Men Have the Last Laugh!" or "Putin's men Rampaging! Zelinsky Panics!".

Then one about the T-14 popped up yesterday. I try to keep up and thought the T-90 was Russia's most advanced tank, but after having a few of them captured or destroyed, Russia was pulling out old moth-balled T-72s. What's a T-14? According to the Hindustan Times it's about the most badass tank there is. They titled this video about it, "Putin Twists the Knife". Lots of rock music over video of a T-14 doing tank like things with graphics about all the specs. You'll have to click on the actual link on these, I used a screen grab to show how they appear on the feed:

1669159953431.png
https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/wat...k-seen-at-training-ground-details/vi-AA14lTmN

So, I looked it up. Seems Russian's MAY get some T-14's sometime after next year or maybe not at all (bold by me):

However, as of 2021, Russian state-owned TASS media agency claimed the Armata had been expected to begin serial production in 2022, with delivery of a test batch of 100 to the 2nd Guards Tamanskaya Motor Rifle Division expected to begin in 2022.[15] The tanks are planned to only be officially transferred following completion of all state tests.[16][17][18][19] In December 2021 the Russian state conglomerate Rostec stated that serial production had commenced,[4] with "more than 40" Armata tanks anticipated to be delivered to Russian troops after 2023.[20]

In November 2022 Moscow Times and Newsweek reported that the state program under which the T-14 Armata is being developed has been halted.[21][22]
Content from External Source
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-14_Armata

Footnote 22 takes one to a Newsweek article:

The plan promised cutting-edge T-14 Armata tanks, whose production has stalled, aircraft and thousands of helicopters. But the Russian army is fighting in Ukraine with old equipment and is believed to be exhausting its stocks of high-precision missiles.

Vedomosti reported that the terms of the SAP had been "suspended" to focus on the needs of the war in Ukraine.

"The fact that Russia is doing that publicly and announcing it is significant," said Steven Horrell, a non-resident senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

"It highlights something other than the 'everything is going our way' narrative the Kremlin has been putting out," he told Newsweek.
Content from External Source
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-armaments-putin-weapons-priorities-1760426

So, maybe there is some operational T-14s out there, but it doesn't sound like they'll be deployed anytime soon.

The other Hindustan Times articles/videos are like this one below. It proports to show a Ukrainian US built MRAP/BMP being destroyed from the air. Maybe it shows that, maybe not. But, like many of the others I saw, it seems to suggest that this one incident is indicative of the whole war. If Putin's men can take out a US BMP, then Russia must be handing it to Ukraine.

1669160223774.png
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/wat...sedgntp&cvid=ce444380647741ddbe4614dc6c5b2e3f

I looked up the Hindustan Times, thinking that maybe the headlines were lost in translation, but it appears to be an English language paper aligned with the Congress party and founded at the end of the Raj:

In review, The Hindustan Times reports national and international news with a left-leaning bias. Articles and headlines contain emotionally loaded language such as this Thackeray under pressure from Bollywood’ mafia’ to derail Sushant probe: Sushil Modi. This story, like most, lacks hyperlinked sourcing. There is low bias when reporting on international news as they use credible sources such as Reuters, AP and maintain factual reporting.

Editorially, they generally align with The Congress Party, the liberal opposition party to Modi’s conservative BJP party. The Congress Party advocates liberty, social justice, equality, the welfare state, and a progressive and secular society. We have also found evidence of promoting Pro-Russian propaganda such as this ‘The plunder of India’: Putin slams West as Russia annexes Ukraine’s 4 regions. In general, the Hindustan Times aligns left politically and has several examples of promoting misinformation, as seen below in the failed fact checks.

Overall, we rate the Hindustan Times Left-Center Biased and questionable due to poor sourcing, numerous failed fact checks, and the promotion of propaganda. (M. Huitsing 9/5/2017) Updated (09/30/2022)
Content from External Source
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/hindustan-times/

Here's todays blurb.
1669159781932.png
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/wat...sedgntp&cvid=ce444380647741ddbe4614dc6c5b2e3f

I don't pretend to understand Indian politics or why this paper would, if not align with Putin, give him and the Russians a positive spin.
 

Duke

Active Member
@NorCal Dave:
A lot to unpack in your post #729, especially the question of India's position relative to Russia in Ukraine. Your paragraph from that post (see below), however left me scratching my head.

The other Hindustan Times articles/videos are like this one below. It proports to show a Ukrainian US built MRAP/BMP being destroyed from the air. Maybe it shows that, maybe not. But, like many of the others I saw, it seems to suggest that this one incident is indicative of the whole war. If Putin's men can take out a US BMP, then Russia must be handing it to Ukraine.

The MRAP and BMP are two different vehicles. The US made MRAP is a mine/IED resistant, lightly armored transport vehicle developed for use in Iraq and Afghanistan. I would not be surprised if we provided some of them to Ukraine. The BMP is a Russian designed infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) roughly comparable to the US Bradley. There have been BMPs in Ukrainian service for years. There are no US BMPs, but the US could have facilitated the transfer of, then refurbished, some of them from former Warsaw Pact nations like Poland or Hungary to Ukraine. What they do have in common is they are both lightly armored, so either of them being taken out by the Russians, especially from above where their armor is thinnest, as the video shows is no surprise.

size1-army.mil-51994-2009-10-01-091005.jpg
US MRAP

bmp2.jpg
Russian BMP
 
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captancourgette

Active Member
India is the largest buyer of Russian Weapons in the world. roughly half their weapons come from there, It dwarves what Pakistan gets from Russia, Pakistan gets most from China. Perhaps the Media there wants to convince themselves/others that they havent brought lemons?

Adding to a long list of why invading Ukraine was a very bad idea(*) by Putin. Its been a terrible showcase for their arms industry (The 2nd biggest after the USA in the world)

(*) The only recent decision thats close at least per capita, would be the World Cup in Qatar, $220 billion cost yet I would argue peoples perceptions (at least in the west) are more negative of the country than if they spent $0. Before most people before wouldnt of had an opinion about that land. To put that number in perspective the boondoggled SLS mission that is currently winging its way to the moon has cost $23 billion with all its delays and cost overruns. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System
 

Duke

Active Member
India is the largest buyer of Russian Weapons in the world. roughly half their weapons come from there, It dwarves what Pakistan gets from Russia, Pakistan gets most from China. Perhaps the Media there wants to convince themselves/others that they havent brought lemons?
This came about as the result of the 1965 India v Pakistan War. Prior to this war, the Indians bought most of their military hardware from the UK, Pakistan bought most of their's from the US. When both Western countries placed an arms embargo on the two nations, the Indians turned to the Soviets and the Pakistanis turned to China.

Since the two Communist nations were at odds over border disputes (that led to a deadly series of skirmishes between them in the mid/late 60s), each was happy to add a "client state" in the region and supply them with weapons. Also, the Chinese and Indians had fought a brief border war in 1962, so supplying weapons to Pakistan strengthened their own position relative to India.

Adding to a long list of why invading Ukraine was a very bad idea(*) by Putin. Its been a terrible showcase for their arms industry (The 2nd biggest after the USA in the world)
A fair point, and one that has been made a number of times in the past, particularly in the Middle East in combat against the Israelis and US. Yet nations still buy Russian weaponry.

Soviet/Russian arms are cheaper to buy than Western weapons, but their logistical support for their customers is historically abysmal.
 
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NorCal Dave

Senior Member.
Your paragraph from that post (see below), however left me scratching my head
I appear to have confused myself. I was getting 3-4 of these a day popping up. There was one about some US made equipment being hit and I thought the video showed file footage captioned "MRAP". Must have been a different one, but the gist is the same. Here is 1 piece of equipment being hit, therefore the war is going bad for Zelinsky.

What's odd is that if I remember something close to what the headline was, I can find the video/article searching the MicroSoft news feed. But they're very difficult to find on the actual Hindustan Times website.
 
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