Russia and Ukraine Current Events

derwoodii

Senior Member.
Genuine offer or is this tactical spying to seek out Ukraine mode of internal comms and control hierarchy to exploit later. Id be very carful of how to answer and nego any offer & a third party nation be better option.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-26/vladimir-putin-interview-russia-ukraine-war/101808490

  • Vladimir Putin says Russia is committed to its goals, but would negotiate if Ukraine came to the table
  • Ukrainian officials say the Kremlin needs to return to reality
  • The CIA believes that Russia is not yet serious about a real negotiation to end the war
Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks, President Vladimir Putin has said.
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
Performance for the domestic/friendly foreign audience, more likely. "Look how hard we're trying they just love being at war!"

Likely the only offer they bring to the table is much like the offers that passed through third party countries throughout the year, which have generally been clearly bad faith demands Russia wasn't in a position to make.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Genuine offer or is this tactical spying to seek out Ukraine mode of internal comms and control hierarchy to exploit later.
It's neither?

Russia is ready to negotiate with all parties involved in the war in Ukraine, but Kyiv and its Western backers have refused to engage in talks, President Vladimir Putin has said.
Russia wants to "freeze" the conflict now because they've lost the offensive, and if Ukraine manages to score another big win in the upcoming winter, their negotiating position would be much worse. They're using the terror bombing and the threat of a new offensive via Belorussia to pressure Kyiv to accede to that, but Zelenski isn't having that: the end result must be better for Ukraine than 2014 was if the country is to have peace. But as it stands now, Putin won't withdraw his troops.

Article:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly preparing to present a peace plan in February 2023, which may be timed to exploit a failed Russian winter offensive. The Wall Street Journal, citing Ukrainian and European diplomats, reported on December 22 that Zelensky’s team is planning to present an unspecified peace plan in February 2023.[21] Zelensky laid out a 10-point peace plan at the G20 summit in November 2022 that requires Russia to make concessions, including withdrawing all its troops from Ukraine and respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity under international law.[22] Zelensky may be preparing to present this peace plan around an anticipated failed Russian military offensive in early 2023.


Right now, there's just no way for negotiations to succeed.
 

Ann K

Senior Member.
Russia says it wants to "negotiate", but Russia was the invader of a foreign country, the instigator of all this. The only way any negotiations should be considered is if the Russians first withdraw completely and go home. They are not in a position to come to the table until they do so.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Russia says it wants to "negotiate", but Russia was the invader of a foreign country, the instigator of all this. The only way any negotiations should be considered is if the Russians first withdraw completely and go home. They are not in a position to come to the table until they do so.
I disagree. Peace talks and treaties are possible (in principle) that solidify a change of territory resulting from a military campaign. It's been done many times in history, the most relevant example may be the 2014 Minsk agreements.

Because the Minsk agreements failed, Ukraine is now demanding that any peace treaty must involve Russia withdrawing all of its troops and returning Ukrainian territory to Ukraine. They can do this because Ukraine still has a strong military, strong morale, and good Western support.

As another example, the 1979 Egypt–Israel peace treaty was successful even though Israel had not given up all of territory it had occupied in the 6-day-war. The occupying army doesn't always have to "withdraw completely and go home" for peace to be possible.

It is perfectly legitimate for Russia to try and negotiate a peace that does not involve them withdrawing from all of Ukraine. But it's futile to blame either side for not meeting the other side's terms.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Article:
Ukrainian strikes on legitimate military targets far in the Russian rear continue to be points of neuralgia for the Russian milblogger community. Russian sources began reporting explosions near the Engels Airbase in Saratov Oblast on the night of December 25 and the morning of December 26.[12] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated that Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that was approaching the Engels airfield at low altitude and that the wreckage of the UAV killed three Russian servicemen.[13] Several prominent Russian milbloggers latched onto the Russian MoD report on the incident as an opportunity to criticize domestic Russian air defense capabilities and question Russian authorities’ handling of and response to reported Ukrainian strikes deep in the Russian rear. One Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger questioned why Russian air defense only “miraculously” prevents strikes “exactly above the airfield/military unit” and noted that the Engels airfield is 500km into Russian territory.[14] Former militant commander and prominent Russian milblogger Igor Girkin sarcastically congratulated Russian air defense for activating before striking the airbase and questioned why Russia is allowing Ukrainian drones so deep into its territory.[15] Several Russian milbloggers also criticized the technical capabilities of Russian air defense and electronic warfare systems and voiced their concern over Russian authorities’ inability to protect critical Russian infrastructure.[16]

My guess is that Russia has lost a fair amount of radar-guided anti-aircraft systems, and that they've moved some systems toward the front lines that are now missing elsewhere.

If Ukraine can actually destroy enough of these, they may gain air superiority; and that'll put a quick end to trench warfare, I hope.

The question is, is that actually possible? and how long will it take?
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
I have to go back to memories of early year stuff, but Ukraine's air force wasn't large to start with and hasn't fared well. Russia can't manage air superiority because Ukraine's air defense (both large and man-portable) is very intact, but Ukraine can't capitalize on the clear skies.

Giving Ukraine planes has been a huge bottleneck, since they fly the MIG-29, so either one of the limited members of NATO with the same needs to give theirs up (Slovakia said back in June they were, but haven't delivered them yet) or somebody needs to arrange a whole new supply chain and pilot training to help them switch over to something new.
 

Duke

Active Member
I have to go back to memories of early year stuff, but Ukraine's air force wasn't large to start with and hasn't fared well. Russia can't manage air superiority because Ukraine's air defense (both large and man-portable) is very intact, but Ukraine can't capitalize on the clear skies.
What you are describing is known as air denial.

Giving Ukraine planes has been a huge bottleneck, since they fly the MIG-29, so either one of the limited members of NATO with the same needs to give theirs up (Slovakia said back in June they were, but haven't delivered them yet) or somebody needs to arrange a whole new supply chain and pilot training to help them switch over to something new.
Agreed, but the latter is not a short term solution. Logistics and competent maintainers would be the long pole in the tent.
 

TheNZThrower

Active Member
Neil Abrams linked to the US mission to the OSCE which claimed that the OSCE has observed the Russian military in the Donbas:

He seems to have linked to the wrong article, as the link doesn't say anything quoted in his screenshot. But that aside, does anyone know whether there exists OSCE documents verifying this?
 

Mauro

Senior Member
It's neither?


Russia wants to "freeze" the conflict now because they've lost the offensive, and if Ukraine manages to score another big win in the upcoming winter, their negotiating position would be much worse. They're using the terror bombing and the threat of a new offensive via Belorussia to pressure Kyiv to accede to that, but Zelenski isn't having that: the end result must be better for Ukraine than 2014 was if the country is to have peace. But as it stands now, Putin won't withdraw his troops.

Article:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly preparing to present a peace plan in February 2023, which may be timed to exploit a failed Russian winter offensive. The Wall Street Journal, citing Ukrainian and European diplomats, reported on December 22 that Zelensky’s team is planning to present an unspecified peace plan in February 2023.[21] Zelensky laid out a 10-point peace plan at the G20 summit in November 2022 that requires Russia to make concessions, including withdrawing all its troops from Ukraine and respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity under international law.[22] Zelensky may be preparing to present this peace plan around an anticipated failed Russian military offensive in early 2023.


Right now, there's just no way for negotiations to succeed.
Well said, I completely agree with you.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
But that aside, does anyone know whether there exists OSCE documents verifying this?
The mission's OSCE homepage links to an archive with all of the reports and releases. It's no secret at all.

Article:
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) started its activities on 21 March 2014 and discontinued its operations on 31 March 2022.

The SMM was an unarmed, civilian mission, operating on the ground 24/7 Ukraine. Its main tasks were to observe and report in an impartial and objective manner on the security situation in Ukraine; and to facilitate dialogue among all parties to the conflict.
 

MapperGuy

Member
This quote has been used many times, but I recall it being used during the Cold War to describe Moscow's position in negotiations with the West.

"What's our is ours, what's your is negotiable".

No proposal by Putin would ever involve giving up a single square meter of the ground currently occupied by the Russians, it would only involve the Ukranian's giving up ground they currently occupy.
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-tells-erdogan-ukraine-must-113810318.html

Putin was a bit clearer with the "offer" talking to Erdogan: his red line is Ukraine giving up the territory newly claimed by Russia.

Note that a not insignificant portion of that territory is not even *held* by Russia anymore (some never even was), which highlights how bad faith the offer even is.

With the condition of the Russian army in Ukraine, even keeping the current lines as a new status quo isn't a demand Russia's in any position to make.

A good faith offer might look more like Donbass and Crimea, and I still think Ukraine would be well justified in telling Putin to walk into the ocean first.
 

obiwanbenobi

Active Member
I've been interested to see how the "information space" is being used and abused by each side in this conflict. Not that this is the first relatively recent conflict with such things going on but up to this point I've largely not been much for digging in and reading about what is going on.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.

jplaza

Active Member
https://cadenaser.com/nacional/2022...tra-vez-en-la-embajada-de-ucrania-cadena-ser/
Una nueva carta ha sido interceptada este viernes en la sede de la embajada de Ucrania en Madrid, (...) Inicialmente la Policía lo comparó con el primer paquete y aseguraron que era similar a los anteriormente recibidos. Pero, tras las comprobaciones de los TEDAX, se ha verificado que no contenía ningún tipo de explosivos. Sí contenía, sin embargo, un ojo de animal aplastado. Interior lo relaciona ahora con el resto de cartas que se están recibiendo en otras embajadas ucranianas de Europa. La Policía llega a esa conclusión por su franqueo, que no es español.

A new parcel has been intercepted this Friday at the ukranian embassy in Madrid, (...) Initially, Police compared it with the first parcel and said it was similar to those previously received. But after investigation by TEDAX(*), it was verified that it did not contain any kind of explosive. It did contain, however, a smashed eye of an animal. Interior Ministry now relates it with the other letters being received in other ukranian embassies in Europe. The police reaches this conclusion due to postage not being spanish.
Content from External Source
(*) TEDAX: Explosive deactivation units.

I can't find any reference now, what I heard this afternoon on the radio is that Police thinks this parcel containing eyes would be unrelated to the ones with explosives received in the last days at different places in Spain. Those were sent from somewhere Spain, it seems.
https://cadenaser.com/nacional/2023...-pedro-sanchez-y-varios-ministros-cadena-ser/

Detenido en Miranda de Ebro el presunto autor de las cartas bomba a Pedro Sánchez y varios ministros​

Entre finales de noviembre y principios de diciembre se enviaron seis cartas bomba a distintos ministerios y embajadas como la de Ucrania en Madrid, donde fue herido un trabajador en una mano. La Policía Nacional ha detenido este miércoles en Miranda de Ebro (Burgos) a Pompeyo González —un hombre de nacionalidad española de 74 años— como presunto autor del envío de esas misivas. Es una persona muy activa en redes sociales y, según los investigadores de la Policía Nacional, tiene conocimientos técnicos e informáticos.

El diario The New York Times publicó hace unos días que funcionarios estadounidenses y europeos creen que un grupo supremacista blanco con sede en Rusia recibió órdenes de la inteligencia de ese país para enviar esas cartas con material explosivo que llegaron a La Moncloa —dirigida al presidente del Gobierno español, Pedro Sánchez— al ministerio de Defensa —para Margarita Robles—, a la embajada de Ucrania y la de EEUU, a la base aérea de Torrejón de Ardoz y a una empresa de armamento de Zaragoza.

Las cartas, de fabricación casera, tenían en común el remitente: una dirección de correo electrónico pero hasta el momento se desconocía el origen. Si bien se presume que el detenido confeccionó y envió los artefactos explosivos en solitario, la Policía Nacional no descarta la participación o influencia de otras personas en los hechos.

----------------
Arrested in Miranda de Ebro the presumed author of letter-bombs sent to Pedro Sánchez and several ministers

Between November and December six letter bombs were sent to different ministeries and embassies including the Ukranian one in Madrid, where a man was injuried in one hand. National Police has arrested this Wednesday in Miranda de Ebro (Burgos province) Pompeyo González - a 74 year old spanish male - as the presumed author of the sending of these parcels. He is a very active person in social media, and according to Nationa Police investigators, has technical knowledge.

The newspaper The New York Times published a few days ago that american and european officials believed that a group of white supremacists based in Russia received orders from the intelligence services of that country to send those letters with explosive material that reached La Moncloa - sent to the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez - , to Defense Ministry - sent to Margarita Robles - to the Ukranian, US embassies, to Torrejón de Ardoz AFB and to a company of armament in Zaragoza.

The letters, which were handmade, had a common sender: an email address but until now the origin was unknown. Even if it is presumed that the arrested man fabricated and sent the explosive devices alone, National Police does not rule out the participation or influence of other people.
Content from External Source
 

Scaramanga

Member
I disagree. Peace talks and treaties are possible (in principle) that solidify a change of territory resulting from a military campaign. It's been done many times in history, the most relevant example may be the 2014 Minsk agreements.

Because the Minsk agreements failed, Ukraine is now demanding that any peace treaty must involve Russia withdrawing all of its troops and returning Ukrainian territory to Ukraine. They can do this because Ukraine still has a strong military, strong morale, and good Western support.

As another example, the 1979 Egypt–Israel peace treaty was successful even though Israel had not given up all of territory it had occupied in the 6-day-war. The occupying army doesn't always have to "withdraw completely and go home" for peace to be possible.

It is perfectly legitimate for Russia to try and negotiate a peace that does not involve them withdrawing from all of Ukraine. But it's futile to blame either side for not meeting the other side's terms.

Any negotiation that left Russia with more territory would essentially be rewarding them for their aggressive behaviour. To me it all smacks of being similar to the 'peace in our time' of the Sudetenland negotiation of 1938....and we all know how that one went.
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
In 1938 nobody believed that was the end and even as the world sacrificed Czechoslovakia they were preparing for the inevitable war, not celebrating having prevented it. Nuclear weapons change the calculus too much, there is no inevitable larger war looming on the horizon, Ukraine *is* the war.
 

Duke

Active Member
In 1938 nobody believed that was the end and even as the world sacrificed Czechoslovakia they were preparing for the inevitable war, not celebrating having prevented it. Nuclear weapons change the calculus too much, there is no inevitable larger war looming on the horizon, Ukraine *is* the war.
Actually they did both.

No larger war looming on the horizon? You can hope that, but I wouldn't count your chickens just yet. All it would take to kick off that larger war involving all of NATO is one misguided Russian missile or an over zealous Russian junior officer to lead to the invocation of Article 5 of the NATO charter.
 

Scaramanga

Member
In 1938 nobody believed that was the end and even as the world sacrificed Czechoslovakia they were preparing for the inevitable war, not celebrating having prevented it. Nuclear weapons change the calculus too much, there is no inevitable larger war looming on the horizon, Ukraine *is* the war.

Chamberlain arrived home waiving his 'piece of paper, signed by Herr Hitler' and proudly announced 'peace in our time'. He clearly believed the Munich Conference had avoided war and that Hitler was sincere in his ' no more territorial demands'. Goering recorded that Hitler laughed at the naivety of 'that little worm', as he called Chamberlain.

Frankly, Putin's actions in eastern Ukraine have almost the exact same 'justifications' as Hitler's with the Sudetenland. It is eerily similar.
 

DavidB66

Senior Member
Chamberlain arrived home waiving his 'piece of paper, signed by Herr Hitler' and proudly announced 'peace in our time'. He clearly believed the Munich Conference had avoided war and that Hitler was sincere in his ' no more territorial demands
Nevertheless, Britain continued with its rapid rearmament programme, especially in fighter planes.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
2 months of war

 
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