Duke
Senior Member.
https://samf.substack.com/p/that-was-the-coup-that-wasExternal Quote:
Lengthy, but interesting, analysis into this weekend's adventures written by noted UK military history/foreign policy author Lawrence Freedman.
Russia and Ukraine Current Events
- Thread starter Mick West
- Start date
Lengthy, but interesting, analysis into this weekend's adventures written by noted UK military history/foreign policy author Lawrence Freedman.
MonkeeSage
Senior Member.
Article: Russian General Sergei Surovikin has been arrested, The Moscow Times' Russian service reported Wednesday, citing two sources close to the Defense Ministry who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
The Defense Ministry has yet to comment on the alleged arrest of Surovikin, who has not been seen in public since Saturday, when Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion against Russia's military leadership.
"The situation with him was not 'OK.' For the authorities. I can't say anything more," one of the sources said.
According to the second source, the arrest was carried out "in the context of Prigozhin."
"Apparently, he [Surovikin] chose Prigozhin's side during the uprising, and they've gotten him by the balls," the source said.
When asked about the general's current whereabouts, the source replied: "We are not even commenting on this information through our internal channels."
[...]
Earlier Wednesday, pro-war military blogger Vladimir Romanov said Surovikin was detained Sunday, the day after Prigozhin's aborted mutiny.
Romanov claimed that Surovikin is now being held in Moscow's Lefortovo detention center.
Alexei Venediktov, editor-in-chief of the shuttered Ekho Moskvy radio station, wrote on Telegram that Surovikin has not been in contact with his family for three days and that his guards are not responsive.
The New York Times reported Tuesday, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that Surovikin had prior knowledge of Prigozhin's plan to instigate a rebellion against Russia's military leadership.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday dismissed the report as "speculation" and "gossip," suggesting that Putin had not given in to Prigozhin's demands for an imminent reshuffle of the Russian military's top brass.
Duke
Senior Member.
"Ukraine Slams Russian Helicopter Base in Likely British Storm Shadow Missile Strike" on SmartNews: https://l.smartnews.com/p-kHUAm/fm09hVExternal Quote:
The fact the Brits were supplying Storm Shadows to Ukraine was acknowledged a couple months ago. A significant uptick in standoff capabilities for the Ukrainians, probably launched from Su-24s. Waiting for the BBC to confirm their use.
Mendel
Senior Member.
There's a picture:
Source: https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1674715176296148993
MBDA, the manufacturer of Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG, is a European multinational company, so the missile may use parts manufactured in different countries.Article: Following the United Kingdom's announcement that it had sent Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron has said his country will provide Kyiv with virtually identical weapons called SCALP-EGs.
ISW mentions Storm Shadow as far back as May 12, but always as "Russian sources say" or "Russian milbloggers claim", since their use has apparently never been confirmed?
Article: Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces struck rear Russian areas in Luhansk Oblast with British Storm Shadow cruise missiles on May 12 and 13
United Kingdom Defense Secretary Ben Wallace confirmed on May 12 that the UK is supplying Ukraine with the missiles but did not specify when or even if Ukraine received them.
Storm Shadow has been attributed a previous strike at the Berdyansk airfield:
Article: Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a deep strike against a Russian headquarters at an airfield in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, with Storm Shadow missiles on May 21. Ukraine's Strategic Communications Center reported that Ukrainian forces struck an unspecified Russian headquarters in Berdyansk on May 21.[55] Geolocated pictures show smoke rising in the direction of the Berdyansk airfield.[56] Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces struck the mess hall at the Berdyansk airfield with a Storm Shadow missile in the early morning on May 21.[57]
And they've been attributed the big hole on one of the bridges that connect Crimea with mainland Ukraine:
Article: Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a Storm Shadow strike on the Chonhar Bridge, along the E105 highway connecting Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea.
Attachments
Last edited:
Duke
Senior Member.
Storm Shadow is a joint Anglo-French weapon system. No confirmation to date it's been used by the Ukrainians, but this Russian helo base strike is getting quite a bit of press. That's why I'm waiting to see if the Brits/BBC confirm their use. "Combat proven" is a great sales pitch, I'm sure the Brits would like to see exports sales of the missile for economies of scale cost savings.
Mendel
Senior Member.
Article: The Black Shaheen is a version of the SCALP EG/Storm Shadow developed by France for export to the United Arab Emirates, to equip its Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft. Modifications to the Black Shaheen, made in compliance with Missile Technology Control Regimes guidelines, allegedly include a decreased range of 290 km and a payload of under 500 kg.
In 2011, French, Italian, and UK forces fired SCALP EG/Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Libya.
Duke
Senior Member.
It's not out of the ordinary for a nation to sell downgraded versions of their weapons to customer states for fear they could at some point be used against them or their friends. This also addresses the concern of the most modern weapons potentially falling into the hands of adversaries.
I think I remember reading about their use in Libya, maybe in "Air Forces Monthly." The difference is the quality of opponent. Much more impressive to have a weapon perform well in a real war against a peer/near peer adversary with anti-missile capability than against a third world nation at war with itself in virtually uncontested skies.
Mendel
Senior Member.
The Kerch Bridge has been struck again.
Regarding the previous attack in October, see https://www.metabunk.org/threads/russia-and-ukraine-current-events.12289/post-281227
Article: Russian authorities accused Ukrainian special services of conducting an unmanned surface vehicle strike against the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of July 17.[1] Footage of the aftermath shows that one Kerch Strait Bridge road span had collapsed and another span suffered damage but remains intact.[2] The Russian Ministry of Transport claimed that the strikes did not damage the rail bridge or supports of the road bridge, and rail traffic across the Kerch Strait Bridge resumed several hours after the strike.[3] Russian occupation authorities rerouted heavy civilian traffic from occupied Crimea to Russia through occupied southern Ukraine, and Russian sources reported extensive traffic jams in Crimea's Dzhankoy Raion and occupied Kherson Oblast towards Melitopol.
Russian authorities reopened one span of the Kerch Strait Bridge to one-way road traffic towards Russia on July 18, and plan to reopen the same span to two-lane traffic on September 15 and the whole bridge to road traffic in November.
Regarding the previous attack in October, see https://www.metabunk.org/threads/russia-and-ukraine-current-events.12289/post-281227
derwoodii
Senior Member.
derwoodii
Senior Member.
Mendel
Senior Member.
Article: A drone attack on an ammunition depot in Crimea has led to civilian evacuations and disrupted transport, Russian authorities have said.
Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-installed governor of occupied Crimea, said Ukraine was behind the attack, without providing evidence.
Mr Aksyonov said local residents living within five kilometres of the blast were being evacuated.
Rail services across the Kerch bridge have also reportedly been halted.
Earlier on Saturday, Russian authorities stopped traffic on the bridge, but then swiftly reopened it to cars.
A later update from the Moscow-installed government said road traffic was again halted until further notice.
That happened yesterday.
Courgette2
New Member
I'm cap courgette, lost phone so logístic in Lite this, I'm going to bé in bahkmut soon, if yous Want pic or dialog of something, i will try (within rea son) as its still dangerous. Bé specific in what you want. Ya Coy ya
LilWabbit
Senior Member
Stay safe, bro!
Mendel
Senior Member.
picture of you safely returned to your family is all I need tbh
Mendel
Senior Member.
Article: Kremlin-appointed Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war.[20] In a report on the activities "authorized by the President of the Russian Federation for children's rights" in 2022, Lvova-Belova claimed that Russia has "received" 4.8 million Ukrainians since February 2022 and noted that the vast majority of the 700,000 children who arrived to Russia did not have parental or guardian supervision.[21]
Russian forces conducted a drone strike on the night of August 1-2 that destroyed port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast including 40,000 tons of grain. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted a Shahed drone strike targeting Kyiv and Odesa oblasts and that Ukrainian air defenses destroyed 23 drones, but an unspecified number of drones struck port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[9] BBC Russia reported that the Russian strike destroyed 40,000 tons of grain intended for shipment to several African countries, China, and Israel at the Izmail port in Odesa Oblast.[10] The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on July 31 that Russian forces destroyed 180,000 tons of grain between Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17 and July 26.[11] The Kremlin has repeatedly pledged to send 25,000 to 50,000 tons of grain to six unspecified African countries in the next three to four months free of charge--a fraction of the Ukrainian grain it has destroyed.[12]
I've seen news of a Russian ship severely damaged by a naval drone, I'm waiting for that to show up in ISW's reports.
DavidB66
Senior Member.
That seems an awful lot, even by Stalin's standards. Are we sure the 'transfer' doesn't include the population of those provinces (oblasts, or whatever) of Ukraine which Russia claims to have legally 'incorporated' in the Russian Federation? In that case, most of them would not have physically moved. On the other hand, the claim that
does seem to imply a physical separation of children from their parents or guardians.
Mendel
Senior Member.
Well, ISW gives sources. One of them claims the opposite regarding the majority of children (excerpted):
Article: Since February last year, Russia has received about 4.8 million residents of Ukraine and the Donbass republics, including more than 700,000 children, the vast majority of whom came with their parents or other relatives, according to a report by Russian Children's Ombudsman Maria Lvova- Belova .
According to the document, about 1.5 thousand pupils of institutions for orphans or those left without parental care also arrived in Russia.
The document notes that at the end of summer - last fall, children from Kherson, Zaporozhye, Kharkiv regions and other territories were sent by their parents to rest, "including for protection from hostilities." They, along with those accompanying them, were accepted by sanatoriums and organizations for recreation and health improvement in the Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory by proxy from their parents.
Since the beginning of hostilities, the Ukrainian side has repeatedly accused the Russian side of deporting children. President Vladimir Putin, in turn, denied these accusations and said that Russia "absolutely legally" took children out of the conflict zone in order to save their lives and health, and was not going to separate anyone from their relatives if they showed up.
Above is a google translation, the Russian original is at https://www.rbc.ru/politics/30/07/2023/64c6c3119a794777ebcc7766?from=newsfeed . The report cited is at http://www.deti.gov.ru/detigray/upload/documents/July2023/7JkHUTqLIsZL45JDp4Xl.pdf . It'd be great if a Russian speaker could check on the context of these numbers.
DavidB66
Senior Member.
It's difficult to understand these claims, even if we ignore the contradictions in different reports. Who are these 4.8 million people, where do they come from, where have they gone, and - crucially - why? I can understand that survivors from places like Mariupol and Bakhmut, which have been practically destroyed, would be displaced, and some of them might end up in Russia, but would they add up to millions? (Mariupol might account for up to 300,000, and Bakhmut less than 100,000.) If the people are coming from areas still under Ukrainian control, how do they get to Russia? Roads and bridges would be closed and/or mined., and the River Dnieper is a formidable obstacle. If they are coming from areas already under Russian control, like Crimea and Donbas, why would they want or need to uproot themselves? Except in relatively narrow combat zones, they are not under immediate threat from Ukraine.
Without further context, and bearing in mind the Russian habit of massive fabrication in statistics, I wonder if these figures are hugely exaggerated for propaganda reasons, either for domestic or foreign audiences? Part of the Russian official narrative* is that Ukraine is full of Nazis, demons, Antichrists, etc, who are bent on committing genocide against ethnic Russians. And the proof is that millions of people are fleeing from Ukraine to Mother Russia!
Perhaps there are more prosaic reasons for the large numbers. Could there be double-counting of people crossing the borders more than once? This does affect some of the statistics for Ukrainian refugees to the West, so it might also apply to refugees in the other direction.
*the official statements of the Russian Government are not quite so colourful, but constant propaganda on Russian state TV conveys these messages to the domestic audience. See the YouTube channel 'Russian Media Monitor' for examples.
captancourgette
Active Member
Yes the number is prolly at least 2 million to high.
Yes Some were forced against their will (including kids) to 'relocate' to Russia. Some choose to go to Russia after they first backed Russia in their own self interests, and then when it didn't go to plan and Russia started losing territory decided it was better to flee, than to face their neighbours who they betrayed. Is there a site that lists the number of refugees to each land and how it changed month by month? If so I suspect you will find it interesting. Supply a link if you find it
Yes Some were forced against their will (including kids) to 'relocate' to Russia. Some choose to go to Russia after they first backed Russia in their own self interests, and then when it didn't go to plan and Russia started losing territory decided it was better to flee, than to face their neighbours who they betrayed. Is there a site that lists the number of refugees to each land and how it changed month by month? If so I suspect you will find it interesting. Supply a link if you find it
If you are going to respond to someone use the Reply button.
Mendel
Senior Member.
Article: Ten people have died after a private jet crashed north of Moscow, Russia's state-owned Tass news agency has been reporting.
Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was listed as a passenger but we cannot yet confirm at the moment if he was on board the plane.
Speculation on Telegram channels suggested the crashed plane was an Embraer Legacy jet with the serial number RA-02795.
Tracking data on FlightRadar24 - a popular flight tracking website - does not show where it departed from.
Earlier today it appeared near Moscow, where it climbed to an altitude of nearly 29,000ft (8,800m) before the data showed it suddenly dropping, ending up at 0ft.
The plane is registered to Autolex Transport, which the US government has linked to Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Whether Prigozhin is dead or alive is going to sort itself out with time, no need to speculate.
John J.
Senior Member.
If Mr. Prigozhin has died, then what an ironic coincidence- two months to the day since he launched his "March of Justice".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66599774 BBC News (20:33, Steve Rosenberg), 23/08/23.
I know we shouldn't "psychoanalyze" on this forum, but I wonder about the mentality of a man in Prigozhin's position taking a flight, where he's on the passenger list, inside Russia.
No doubt President Putin will have stirring words in memoriam for
Mendel
Senior Member.
it's expected for them to say that, but do they have evidence?
there are other ways to sabotage aircraft, and also accidents, especially for an aircraft type that's embargoed
DavidB66
Senior Member.
I've seen several reports that the plane was shot down, but I haven't seen any unambiguous video footage to confirm this. People with no prior knowledge of the event would be unlikely to start filming the plane until it was already visibly in trouble. Some footage does show smoke in the air above the falling plane, which suggests that there was an explosion or at least a fire on board. I would be surprised if the Russian military just shot it down, either from the ground or air-to-air, since even Putin would probably want to keep a fig leaf of deniability, in case innocent people in the plane or on the ground were killed. Though the Kremlin might try to spin it on the lines that the flight was unauthorised or suspicious in some way, so it was 'regrettably' necessary to shoot it down as a precaution against a 'terrorist' (e.g. Ukrainian) attack.
Incidentally, I have also seen reports that all of the passengers were senior Wagner officers or bosses, in which case the chances are that the crew would also have Wagner connections.
Incidentally, I have also seen reports that all of the passengers were senior Wagner officers or bosses, in which case the chances are that the crew would also have Wagner connections.
Mendel
Senior Member.
Mendel
Senior Member.
May they rest in peace.Article: Who was on board?
The private jet that crashed was carrying seven passengers and three crew.
Russia's aviation agency identified the seven passengers as: Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin, Sergei Propustin, Yevgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin, Valery Chekalov and Nikolai Matuseyev.
The crew members were identified as Captain Alexei Levshin, co-pilot Rustam Karimov and flight attendant Kristina Raspopova.
For Prigozhin to not be dead, he would've had to not enter the aircraft he way supposed to be on. So, awaiting confirmation from whoever identifies the bodies, Prigozhin is probably dead.
There's no evidence as to the cause of the crash. Many people expect that the FSB is behind it.
Duke
Senior Member.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/prigozhin-plane-wine-crate-bomb-female-crew-member-last-minute-repairs/External Quote:
Not sure I'd put much faith in anything Steele says, but the stew's comment about unexpected maintenance is noteworthy.
Mendel
Senior Member.
It supports both readings:
- it could be a pretext, created by the FSB to get the opportunity to sabotage the aircraft
- it could be an actual problem, fixed provisionally (not too many Embraer parts in Moscow these days, I expect), that failed in flight and caused the crash
But the spin also suggestd that the aircraft might have simply stalled due to some control surfaces failing suddenly. (And of course that failure might also be due to sabotage.)
On the balance, the unexpected repairs make it seem more likely to me [than before] that the aircraft malfunctioned.
Again, with time, there will be witnesses to those repairs, who may or may not be credible. Since Embraer is Brasilian, CENIPA will be a party to the accident investigation.
Last edited:
Mauro
Senior Member.
I would think the same, if not for the aircraft carrying Prigozhin and happening to crash deep inside Russia, which is a big prior in favor of a targeted killing.
Mendel
Senior Member.
ah, ty, I meant "more likely than before I heard of it", not "more likely than sabotage".
Embraers tend to not fall out of the sky by themselves without emergency calls over the radio, they don't have MCAS.
But if we know there was some critical last-minute fix-up job being done, Russian quality, then maybe it's possible.
In the video posted by the BBC the Aircraft is plummeting nearly straight down and it seems consistent with reports that the plane only had one wing. To my eye it does not appear to be intact at all, here are two hasty screengrabs from the video I think is in question
This image is always associated with the downing and appears to show much clearer a broken up plane from a different possibly opposite
sourced from the following article
https://news.sky.com/story/prigozhi...s-us-from-a-former-uk-military-pilot-12946459
Mendel
Senior Member.
The video shows so little detail that I couldn't be sure the other wing isn't invisible because it's brightly lit. I also don't see it fall separately. It is obvious that the aircraft is completely out of control.
The other image seems to show the separation more clearly.
If a wing separated from the body at high altitude, its impact location will be at a considerable distance from the rest of the wreckage. I expect that's going to be reported.
Wings do fall off occasionally, although they're not supposed to.
Last edited:
Mendel
Senior Member.
The tail broke off in the air, apparently.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774
External Quote:
JMartJr
Senior Member.
@Mendel -- Can you speak to this a bit more?
I don't have a lot of plane-knowing, so I did what I imagine other curious folks have done in the past day -- Googled "wing falls off plane in flight." It may well be that my Google-fu is weak, but I am not finding instances of this happening while a plane is cruising at altitude. I see discussion of wings being torn off of a plane already in an extreme dive, or following a collision with something, but I'm not finding cases of "the wing just fell off." My hope is that you or somebody else who knows planes have a moment to supply us with some additional knowledge on this, possibly some cases that Google isn't finding but that you know about! Thanks!
DavidB66
Senior Member.
I don't know which BBC video is referred to, but some footage online is allegedly spliced together from genuine eye-witness footage of the Prigozhin plane and footage of other plane crashes. This clip from Russian state TV in particular appears to show at least two different planes:
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AywsneXxDLo
(see the comments under the video on YouTube.)
I don't know whether this is a deliberate attempt at deception (for what reason?) or just incompetence. Someone at the studio may have said: hey, this is a bit dull, let's edit in something more exciting!
Added: according to The Times (UK) online, all the passengers were Wagner group members, but:
so my last sentence at #865 above was incorrect and insensitive. It seems that the crew were most likely innocent victims. This could be one reason why no-one is claiming 'credit' for the crash. The official Kremlin line seems to be turning towards blaming it on a tragic accident, possibly made more likely by Western sanctions, though a former aide to Putin, Sergei Markov, is also trying to pin the blame on Ukrainian intelligence.
Last edited:
Mendel
Senior Member.
The BBC liveblog page had a video that their verification team allegedly checked out. It has one longer shot from farther away, and then switched to a closer position, so I assumed that these were two different witness videos spliced together.
Have the people who claim it's from another crash identified that crash? Or is that just bunk?
Duke
Senior Member.
That's the Russian Coot Wagner forces shot down during their shortlived coup in June.
Source: https://youtu.be/NGF523R4xaA?si=buLGPgkX8Vwvl-bo
Latest posts
-
-
White orb over arizona that "zips into space", video from tiktok- Latest: NorCal Dave
-
-
