Russia and Ukraine Current Events

JMartJr said:
Googled "wing falls off plane in flight." It may well be that my Google-fu is weak, but I am not finding instances of this happening while a plane is cruising at altitude.
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ntsb accident report "wing separation"

TWA 800, July 17 1996, Boeing 747-131, fuel tank exploded over the Atlantic
SmartSelect_20230824-232605_Samsung Notes.jpg

3 Beech T-34A had wing separations, but they were performing manoeuvers at the time. We can't rule that out here; if big boss Prigozhin enters the cockpit and says, "let's do a barrel roll", I expect most crews would comply.
SmartSelect_20230824-233348_Samsung Notes.jpg

External Quote:
In a brief preliminary report released yesterday the National Transportation Safety Board said that one of the wings of the air attack aircraft that crashed northeast of Wikieup, Arizona on July 10, 2021 was found 0.79 miles from the main wreckage.
The NTSB said the Beechcraft King Air C90 had been on station for 45 minutes orbiting the fire at about 2,500′ AGL. The last radar data point showed the airplane's airspeed about 151 knots, its altitude about 2,300′ AGL, and that it was in a descent, about 805 ft east southeast of the accident site. The main wreckage, but not the separated wing, was consumed in a post-crash fire.
Can I stop here? It's all a bit morbid because these accidents are not survivable. Sometimes bad maintenance is a factor.

And from the debris location report, it seems the tail fell off, not the wing?
 
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This is an Embraer Legacy 600 (EMB-135BJ).
ra-02795-wagner-group-embraer-emb-135bj-legacy-600_PlanespottersNet_1392081_71dc44fa95_o.jpg

I expect that if an engine or the APU explodes, the tail might come loose. The debris will tell.
 
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https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-66599774
External Quote:
US Defense Department spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder is now addressing members of the media at a Pentagon briefing.
Asked about the Wagner leader, Gen Ryder says that the initial assessment from the Pentagon is that Yevgeny Prigozhin was "likely killed" in the plane crash.
He says there is no information to indicate that a surface-to-air missile brought down the plane and will not be drawn on what other reason could have caused the crash.
 
Mendel said:
The video shows so little detail that I couldn't be sure the other wing isn't invisible because it's brightly lit. I also don't see it fall separately. It is obvious that the aircraft is completely out of control.

The other image seems to show the separation more clearly.

If a wing separated from the body at high altitude, its impact location will be at a considerable distance from the rest of the wreckage. I expect that's going to be reported.

Wings do fall off occasionally, although they're not supposed to.
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There is reporting on the location of the tail, but I'm still unclear about the wing which also appears to be missing. I found a slightly better frame to demonstrate that I believe it is definitely missing from the verified BBC video
Crash3.PNG

I think in this picture we can see at least one of the engines of the Embraer which I'm confident is not the tail, because we know that fell a distance away. From a forensic standpoint I don't know enough about airplane explosions, but if the wing sheered off from stress of the vertical dive it doesn't appear to be falling nearby. It also matches this picture which I think originates in telegram based on the horrible watermark. where we can't see the livery as well, but can see the engines no tail and a single wing.
1692927230578.png

This definitely looks a lot more like an embraer than an Il -22.
 
JimJam said:
There is reporting on the location of the tail, but I'm still unclear about the wing which also appears to be missing. I found a slightly better frame to demonstrate that I believe it is definitely missing from the verified BBC video
View attachment 61951
I think in this picture we can see at least one of the engines of the Embraer which I'm confident is not the tail, because we know that fell a distance away. From a forensic standpoint I don't know enough about airplane explosions, but if the wing sheered off from stress of the vertical dive it doesn't appear to be falling nearby. It also matches this picture which I think originates in telegram based on the horrible watermark. where we can't see the livery as well, but can see the engines no tail and a single wing.
View attachment 61952
This definitely looks a lot more like an embraer than an Il -22.
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Agreed, this looks like the Embraer.

While lookng at your post, I realized my comment about the Il-22 came after viewing the Russian media video included in this post, not the BBC referenced. My error, sorry for the misunderstanding.

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/russia-and-ukraine-current-events.12289/post-300046
 
Mick West said:
Article:
MOSCOW/KYIV, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden said on Thursday there was now every indication Russia was planning to invade Ukraine in the next few days and was preparing a pretext to justify it, after Ukrainian forces and pro-Moscow rebels traded fire in eastern Ukraine.

The Kremlin accused Biden of stoking tension and released a strongly worded letter which accused Washington of ignoring its security demands and threatened unspecified "military-technical measures". Moscow also ejected the number two official from the U.S. embassy.


Things are heating up in the Ukraine situation.

The last Ukraine thread got closed down for devolving into political arguments. Please keep this thread restricted to discussion of current events.
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Hard to comment on that situation objectively unless someone has contacts on the ground or in some official capacity because there's so much dis/mis-information from both sides that it's hard to really know what is going on over there.
 
Duke said:
Agreed, this looks like the Embraer.

While lookng at your post, I realized my comment about the Il-22 came after viewing the Russian media video included in this post, not the BBC referenced. My error, sorry for the misunderstanding.

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/russia-and-ukraine-current-events.12289/post-300046
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To be fair given the parties involved my baseline is also of extreme doubt about any released footage/narrative. I'm just trying to see if any extra info can be gleaned that isn't necessarily being reported on.
 
Mendel said:
But if we know there was some critical last-minute fix-up job being done, Russian quality, then maybe it's possible.
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Or it could of been a last-minute lets remove these crucial bolts, cut these wires 'fix-up job'.
Noone is shocked with this 'accident' the only shocking thing is why did he go back to Russia, You would think he would of had some top level deadhand switch dirt on Putin, but who knows, I get the feeling he liked to live risky and gamble so ?
Rationalman said:
Hard to comment on that situation objectively unless someone has contacts on the ground or in some official capacity because there's so much dis/mis-information from both sides that it's hard to really know what is going on over there.
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You what? You replied to wrong post or something? :)
 
JimJam said:
There is reporting on the location of the tail, but I'm still unclear about the wing which also appears to be missing. I found a slightly better frame to demonstrate that I believe it is definitely missing from the verified BBC video
Click to expand...
if it was missing in the video, it has to be missing on the ground

We've been dealing with TicTacs here on a regular basis which are pixel blobs without wings, where existing wings are invisible because of the angle or because they're so brightly lit that the compression algorithm thinks they're background.

So I'm not taking the video as proof for anything. The metal on the ground is more definite.
1692927230578.png
Crash3.PNG.png
 
captancourgette said:
the only shocking thing is why did he go back to Russia
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best speculation I could find:
Article:
Sources close to the group say there were plans afoot, led by the deputy director of Russia's GRU military intelligence unit, to replace much of Wagner with a parallel mercenary group.

Prigozhin was said to be furiously resisting this and rushed back from Mali to Russia to try to forestall it.

Of course this speculation is motivated because it works against Wagner being broken up.
 
Mendel said:
if it was missing in the video, it has to be missing on the ground

We've been dealing with TicTacs here on a regular basis which are pixel blobs without wings, where existing wings are invisible because of the angle or because they're so brightly lit that the compression algorithm thinks they're background.

So I'm not taking the video as proof for anything. The metal on the ground is more definite.
View attachment 61955View attachment 61956
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Ha, yes there is a lot more potential for further photos and analysis to remove all doubt in this case. Maybe if the TicTacs staged a coup we could end up with a wreckage to examine
 
Rationalman said:
Hard to comment on that situation objectively unless someone has contacts on the ground or in some official capacity because there's so much dis/mis-information from both sides that it's hard to really know what is going on over there.
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Not really.

The newer any report is, the more it suffers from "fog of war", i.e. it may be incomplete or false. However, with time, facts settle down. And nowadays, facts come with photographs.
I've written a post on ISW before that I can't find right now, but I've found understandingwar.org a reliable source of facts. Things they've confirmed are usually true. They do make it very clear when they report on one-sided propaganda, and their own analysis is a bit biased and admittedly sometimes wrong, but we can identify it in their writing and discard it. When they report on facts, we know what "really is going on over there".

For the big picture, go to youtube: Perun is a military historian/economist who's very good at putting things in a broader context. The Austrian Heer (general Reisner) has been doing the occasional video on strategy and tactics.
JimJam said:
To be fair given the parties involved my baseline is also of extreme doubt about any released footage/narrative. I'm just trying to see if any extra info can be gleaned that isn't necessarily being reported on.
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Spoken like a true conspiracy theorist.

Any important info that isn't being reported on has probably been deemed unreliable by the experts. Why would you trust it more?
 
Article:
Ukrainian forces conducted a limited raid on the western shore of occupied Crimea on August 24. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) posted footage and announced that Ukrainian forces landed on the shores near Olenivka and Mayak (both 116km northeast of Sevastopol).[47] The GUR reported that Ukrainian forces skirmished with Russian forces and raised a Ukrainian flag prior to leaving the shore.[48] Most Russian sources dismissed the landing as insignificant, but some prominent milbloggers expressed concern about Russian defensive vulnerabilities in the western Black Sea and western Crimea.[49]
Screenshot_20230825-072424_Maps.jpg

That's the first time, I think? It shows Ukraine has severely hurt Russian naval superiority.

There is what looks like lasting progress on the Southern front:
Pryatykhatky and Robotyne Battle Map Draft August 24,2023.png

They still have a long way to go. We'll see.
 
Mendel said:
Spoken like a true conspiracy theorist.

Any important info that isn't being reported on has probably been deemed unreliable by the experts. Why would you trust it more
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I was being a touch hyperbolic to accept Dukes apology for the misunderstanding by relating to it.
Russian propaganda tactics are to 'flood the zone' with misinfo, we can see they used incorrect footage in the Russian TV broadcast, but they also post footage of tractors being blown up and say its Himars, that's baseline I treat released footage on. When orgs like ISW and news agencies begin to sort through everything and report it I agree we can come to a better conclusion of what the true order of events was. I'm definitely not trying to advocate conspiracies.
You have a better understanding of what the chances of an independent investigation into the cause of this crash are, if Embraer representatives are going to be a part of the investigation what are the chances Russia will leave evidence remaining that they tampered with the plane or planted explosives.
 
JimJam said:
You have a better understanding of what the chances of an independent investigation into the cause of this crash are, if Embraer representatives are going to be a part of the investigation what are the chances Russia will leave evidence remaining that they tampered with the plane or planted explosives.
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It's Embraer representatives as well as the Brasilian accident investigation agency, the latter should have access to the full investigation per ICAO, and they'll publicly complain if not.

There are going to be detailed pictures of the wreckage, and again, CENIPA will complain if they can't see them. It's going to be fairly clear from these pictures whether something exploded.

There's also going to be some sort of interview and statement regarding the work that caused the delay.

If FSB caused an explosion aboard the aircraft, it'll probably be clear from the evidence that there was one, but the investigators may not reach a conclusion what caused it. Or Russia locks down the whole investigation, which will be an obvious coverup.

If I was to bet, I'd say most likely there's going to be a narrative that the aircraft was no longer airworthy because of the sanctions, which absolves Embraer and puts the blame on the evil Western governments killing innocent Russians that don't fly Russian-made aircraft. If the aircraft was sabotaged to support that narrative, that would be very difficult to prove if someone wanted it to not be proven.

But we'll see what emerges. Sometimes there's a preliminary release of information shortly after the crash and an initial report (facts, no analysis) within a month. It should identify the victims.
A final accident report may well take a year, sometimes longer. Russia should also be running a criminal investigation alongside the aeronautic one, which is likely to complicate matters.
 
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captancourgette said:
Hard to see how the above can be labelled an accident.
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That's just ICAO terminology.
Article:
SmartSelect_20230825-155303_Samsung Notes.jpg
If it's not any of these three, it's just an incident.

The Dutch Safety Board (OVV) conducted three investigations into the downing of flight MH17, the 777 shot down over the Donbass. PS752, the aircraft Tehran shot down, had an accident report. The fact that ICAO calls it an accident just means one of the three criteria was fulfilled, not that nobody's responsible for it. But it's not the job of the accident investors to blame anyone, their job is to figure out what happened, and to make aviation safer. Responsibility is left for the courts to decide.
 
Article:
In an interview with Radio Liberty, which is set to air later this week, the head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, described how the incident unfolded.

"We were able to find the right approach to the man," he told the news outlet.


"We were able to create conditions to get his whole family out undetected, and eventually create the conditions so that he could take over this aircraft with a crew that did not know what was happening.


This story has been developing over the past few days, easy to miss because of other news it began with rumours of a pilot getting lost and is now seeming to be confirmed as a full defection, including "eliminating" other crew members.
 
Mendel said:
Article:
Who was on board?

The private jet that crashed was carrying seven passengers and three crew.

Russia's aviation agency identified the seven passengers as: Prigozhin and his right-hand man Dmitry Utkin, Sergei Propustin, Yevgeny Makaryan, Alexander Totmin, Valery Chekalov and Nikolai Matuseyev.
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Wagner was Utkin's call sign. Utkin and Prigozhin let their guard down if they were on the same plane.

ptz630nqpv291.jpg

Article:

Utkin, the Nazi-tattooed commander who gave Wagner its name

A rare photo of the Wagner group's military commander shows a man with a shaved head, a cold stare and the Nazi SS symbol tattooed on both sides of his neck.

It is unclear how Utkin met Prigozhin and how what would become the Wagner group was founded in around 2014. But the mercenary outfit was given Utkin's call sign -- Wagner.
Adolf Hitler was a huge fan of German composer Richard Wagner and many observers see this nom de guerre as another indication of Utkin's Nazi sympathies.
 
Article:
The Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case on a count of violation of air transport operation safety rules.
Article:
The Investigative Committee is an organisation which probes events in which a criminal link is suspected.

Russia's Interstate Aviation Committee, the agency normally tasked with investigating civil aviation accidents, has not stated publicly whether it will have a role in the inquiry.


SKR press releases:
Article:
The Main Investigation Department of the Investigative Committee of Russia continues to investigate the criminal case on the fact of an aviation accident in the Tver region.

During the initial investigative actions, the bodies of 10 dead were found at the crash site. To establish their identities, molecular genetic examinations are being carried out. The flight recorders were confiscated, and a detailed examination of the scene continues. Currently, items and documentation that are important for establishing all the circumstances of the crash are also being seized, and the necessary forensic examinations will be appointed.

The investigation will carefully check all possible versions of what happened.

Article:
As part of the investigation of the plane crash in the Tver region, molecular genetic examinations have been completed. According to their results, the identities of all 10 dead were established, they correspond to the list stated in the flight sheet.
 
Mendel said:
View attachment 62139
[/compare]
Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2023 https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2023
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This front in particular is really developing quickly in the last few days, A lot of pressure for the Ukrainians to make a break through the line of defense, but it could be a sign of a large shake up about to happen, if it's another warm winter it also could mean conditions allow the offensive to continue for a few weeks longer than most people expect before conditions deteriorate. Though I still wouldn't expect anything like a repeat of last years Kherson and Kharkiv successes, any narrowing of the land corridor to Crimea will put more pressure on supply via Kerch strait while also allowing more angles to attack the bridge.

Russians appear to be trying to create physical barriers to stop unmanned naval drones from approaching so easily too.

Source: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1696832729407434994
 
External Quote:
A Russian fighter jet fired a missile at a manned British surveillance aircraft flying over the Black Sea in September but the munition malfunctioned, according to U.S. defense officials and a recently leaked classified U.S. intelligence report. The incident was far more serious than originally portrayed and could have amounted to an act of war.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/europe/russian-jet-british-spy-plane.html

This incident was overshadowed by the Nord Stream bombings that occurred a couple days earlier. The "technical malfunction" seemed a bit too convenient at the time to me, but it seemed to have been readily by all concerned accepted with great relief in the midst of the pipeline tensions.

USAF Rivet Joint a/c do carry both IR and radar countermeasure capabilities, so I assume the RAF model does as well. No mention if those countermeasures were used, nor have I seen which AAM(s) were actually fired by the Russian pilots fired.

Had the Rivet Joint been shot down, very good chance things would have gotten ugly quickly between Russia and NATO.
 
Duke said:
External Quote:
A Russian fighter jet fired a missile at a manned British surveillance aircraft flying over the Black Sea in September but the munition malfunctioned, according to U.S. defense officials and a recently leaked classified U.S. intelligence report. The incident was far more serious than originally portrayed and could have amounted to an act of war.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/12/world/europe/russian-jet-british-spy-plane.html
Click to expand...

The Beeb's take:
External Quote:
The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.

Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.

The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.

He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.

Yet the first pilot still released another missile.

We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.
-- https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66798508
 
Article:
Ukraine's liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka south of Bakhmut may have degraded the Russian defense in the area south of Bakhmut and could have rendered combat ineffective as many as three Russian brigades according to Ukrainian military officials. Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on September 18 that Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut) were important elements of the Russian Bakhmut-Horlivka defensive line that Ukrainian forces "breached."[1

There are no immediate indications that the liberation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka will portend a higher rate of Ukrainian advance south of Bakhmut, however, and the Russian defense of positions west of the T0513 will likely continue to present challenges for Ukrainian forces in the area.

Bakhmut Battle Map Draft September 18,2023.png
 
MrSuperhate said:
There's an article from the New York Times accusing Ukrainian air defense of accidentally bombing Kostiantynivka on September 6th. The missile strike killed 15 and injured 30+. I think this is something Metabunk could take a look at.
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Yeah, I just came here to see if anyone was talking about this. One of the pieces of supporting evidence for this theory is an image of what is believed to be the reflection of a missile on the top of a car. This reflection appears two frames before the explosion.

marketmissile.png


CCTV video of the incident.




Given that you can also see the reflection of the much taller truck right next to the car, surely there's enough information here for someone smart enough to roughly plot where the missile may actually be in the air at that point?

Coords for the Kostiantynivka marketplace - 48°30'46.19"N, 37°40'55.11"E
 
MrSuperhate said:
I forgot to list the archive.ph link because it was not loading with my DNS provider so I had to troubleshoot it. In the meanwhile I forgot to add the link. Here's the link since it was way too difficult for you to plug it in yourself.
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Our link policy, listed under "Info" on the site nav bar, requires posts to be self-contained: you need to actually quote the pertinent parts, like so:
Article:
But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result of an errant Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.

The attack appears to have been a tragic mishap. Air defense experts say missiles like the one that hit the market can go off course for a variety of reasons, including an electronic malfunction or a guidance fin that is damaged or sheared off at the time of launch.

Measurements of the holes — and fragments found at the scene — are consistent in size and shape with one weapon in particular: the 9M38 missile, which is fired by the mobile Buk antiaircraft vehicle. Ukraine is known to use the Buk system, as is Russia.

Some of the holes are less than 10 millimeters in width, while others are slightly larger. The 9M38 contains two different sizes of solid-metal cubic fragments: eight millimeters and 13 millimeters across.

The evidence seems to be that this was an anti-air missile, not intended to hit targets on the ground (or to mimic a Russian missile like that).

So, if true, one less war crime for Russia. Don't do wars, people will die.
 
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Mendel said:
The evidence seems to be that this was an anti-air missile, not intended to hit targets on the ground (or to mimic a Russian missile like that).

So, if true, one less war crime for Russia. Don't do wars, people will die.
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If you're looking at intent, then the evidence we currently have is that there was almost certainly something russian that was aiming for gawd knows what, and that there was a ukrainian thing that was almost certainly aiming at that russian thing, because that's what it's single job is. We can not be sure that the russian thing was or was not going to be part of a potential war crime. Ukrainian anti-air defence causing accidental damage isn't exactly new news. This happens. Because war.
 
Article:
Zaluzhny's long essay, "Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It," outlines Zaluzhnyi's consideration of the changes Ukraine must make to overcome the current "positional" stage of the war more clearly than the shorter op-ed and the Economist article it accompanied. Zaluzhnyi wrote that the war "is gradually moving to a positional form" and noted that Ukraine needs to gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; and build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to overcome positional warfare.[2] Positional warfare refers to military operations that do not result in rapid or dramatic changes to the frontline despite both sides' continuing efforts to improve their positions. Zaluzhnyi notably did not say that the war was stalemated in his essay or suggest that Ukraine could not succeed. His essay focused, rather, on explaining that the current positional character of the war was a result of technological-tactical parity on the battlefield and the widespread use of mine barriers by Russian and Ukrainian troops. Zaluzhnyi considered the opportunities presented to Ukraine by Russia's challenges, including the significant losses suffered by Russian aviation; Ukrainian use of Western missile and artillery weapons; and Russia's failure to take advantage of its human mobilization resources due to political, organizational, and motivational issues. Zaluzhnyi argued that to avoid World War I-style "trench war" and move to maneuver warfare, Ukraine must develop new approaches including technological and other changes, some of which depend on Western support and others require adaptations within the Ukrainian military, state, and society. Zaluzhnyi concluded that positional warfare benefits Russia as it prolongs the war and could allow Russia to achieve superiority in certain areas. Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukraine or Russia could return to rapid maneuver warfare under the right circumstances, which for Ukraine must include Western-provided military resources. Zaluzhnyi's essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.

SmartSelect_20231105-203221_Samsung Notes.jpg
 

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