• MH370 speculation has become excessive recently. Metabunk is not a forum for creating theories by speculation. It's a forum for examining claims, and seeing if they hold up. Please respect this and keep threads on-topic. There are many other forums where speculation is welcome.

Flight MH370 Speculation

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On April 9, after Aussie PM Abbott expressed supreme confidence in the position of MH370's FDR, I suspect you'd have felt that "any theory that disproves [the fuel analysis leading the search to 20s, or the acoustic pings keeping it there] delves into a huge conspiracy" - yet here we are, hundreds of miles from the then-official theory.

Trust me, Stevan: I am not "conspiracy-inclined" - I am "coincidence-averse". There is a big difference.

And the staggering coincidences seem to pile up higher and higher with each passing day. Something smells.

THIS is a perfect example to help relate to the existence of "MetaBunk"....because, in some situations, bureaucratic incompetence (and down-right BUTT-covering to avoid implication) can be incorrectly perceived as some sort of "Government Conspiracy"....when in fact, it is the result of Humans trying not to be noticed in their incredible "eff"-ups...and thus, to "lay responsibility" on someone else.
 
If I could think of an example of an actual conspiracy involving a huge number of people it would suggest that the conspiracy had been uncovered, probably because there are too many moving parts, too many people who know too much and eventually the truth gets out.
Why does a CT have to involve a LARGE number of people? Why must we always make that correlation is all I'm saying?
 
because, in some situations, bureaucratic incompetence (and down-right BUTT-covering to avoid implication) can be incorrectly perceived as some sort of "Government Conspiracy"
You're right TJ, but isn't this the definition of a CT. A cover up to avoid implication is a CT and would involve many moving parts, and large quantities of people. Or maybe it's only one part, and a few people know, otherwise it would get leaked to the press. See my point.

Some reserve their rights to review the evidence, as we all should. But when there is a lack of evidence it's only human nature in an investigation to connect the dots. So what do we actually know about flight 370?
 
Why does a CT have to involve a LARGE number of people? Why must we always make that correlation is all I'm saying?
It doesn't, a conspiracy needs no more than two conspirators but the more is not the merrier. Surely the risk of exposure increases with the number of people involved, as does the cost of the endeavour, each player needs rewarding for their silence or to be "silenced" which poses it own risks and costs.
 
And the importance of this week's back-tracking on the fuel analysis cannot be overstated. By March 28, the ATSB was confident that MH370 used more fuel in the tracked phase, and thus must have flown significantly less DISTANCE - confident enough to pull up the stakes of a million-dollar-a-day search, and move it some 2,500km NE.

Not mentioned - but highly relevant - is that this "reduced range" theory would require flying for a significantly shorter TIME - yet the (sacrosanct) Inmarsat arc is supposed to have guaranteed that the flight flew six hours regardless.

Informed experts - including the group (Duncan Steel, et al) who've published a joint analysis suggesting the search go back to where it was in mid-March - flatly rejected this fuel analysis: if you can't shorten the time aloft, you can't reduce the fuel burned (as I attempted to get across many times on this site: "low-and-slow" burns as much per hour as "high-and-fast"). The ATSB should have known this.

They are now this week disowning the RESULTS of their fuel analysis, but not the (provably bogus) ANALYSIS ITSELF. They are claiming they are just now discovering that the Malaysian radar couldn't be relied upon for the altitude changes previously modeled: garbage in, garbage out. Are these people honestly trying to convince us that, for 100 days, the Malaysian altitude data was considered CREDIBLE?! Talk about "garbage out"...

Nice try, ATSB. Via a combination of false fuel analysis and false acoustic ping analysis, you managed to ensure he search was kept for two months in a place you KNEW the plane was NOT. Please now tell us WHY.

Edit: Landru - this responds to #1039.
 
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It doesn't, a conspiracy needs no more than two conspirators but the more is not the merrier. Surely the risk of exposure increases with the number of people involved, as does the cost of the endeavour, each player needs rewarding for their silence or to be "silenced" which poses it own risks and costs.
Sometimes people don't need to be rewarded, sometimes good old fashion blackmail gets the job done or just obeying orders, or someone threatens your wife and kids...
 
It doesn't, a conspiracy needs no more than two conspirators but the more is not the merrier. Surely the risk of exposure increases with the number of people involved, as does the cost of the endeavour, each player needs rewarding for their silence or to be "silenced" which poses it own risks and costs.
So we all talk about too many moving parts or too many people involved, but no one ever knows the "how many people" to determine if it's possible or not. People seem to be under the impression that a CT could never be kept quiet because information would leak. But what happens if the information you have could get you killed or land you in jail for the rest of your life, is it information that you will likely share with the public or media. I'm not saying a CT exist here, I just take issue with this notion sometimes. They don't always have to involve a lot of people and many moving parts, and just because there's more it doesn't mean the information will be leaked if that info could get you in trouble, is all I'm saying... The odds are there should be a greater probability of info getting leaked if more people are involved, but it's not a guarantee...
 
They are now this week disowning the RESULTS of their fuel analysis, but not the (provably bogus) ANALYSIS ITSELF. They are claiming they are just now discovering that the Malaysian radar couldn't be relied upon for the altitude changes previously modeled: garbage in, garbage out. Are these people honestly trying to convince us that, for 100 days, the Malaysian altitude data was considered CREDIBLE?! Talk about "garbage out".
And honestly, how do they know this plane that popped up on radar after MH370 switched off it's communication is MH370. I never understood the part. When the plane turned its ACARS off, they noticed that another plane was flying in the opposite direction, at least this was the original news. How did they know for sure with a 100% certainty that this was flight 370. Also do radar recordings record altitude as well, or only direction and speed?
 
sometimes good old fashion blackmail gets the job done or just obeying orders, or someone threatens your wife and kids...
You are still going to have to pay someone to dig up the dirt, or to obey orders or to threaten family members. Then your hired goons might start wondering why they are being asked to intimidate all these Inmarsat execs and you you have to hire some even scarier goons to shut them up.
 
Why did a PM of a country announce they discovered the pinging from the FR of MH370, when anyone with half a brain in that field would've instantly knew that the pings weren't the CORRECT frequency.
Well obvious answer - our illustrious PM has less than half a brain.
 
You are still going to have to pay someone to dig up the dirt, or to obey orders or to threaten family members. Then your hired goons might start wondering why they are being asked to intimidate all these Inmarsat execs and you you have to hire some even scarier goons to shut them up.
I'm not saying inmarsat execs are being intimidated. Honestly though, it would be easier to bypass Inmarsat entirely and let them think they are doing the right thing. If someone where to hack into their systems and create the handshakes, (1 person) it would be much easier than having to intimidate a handful of execs..
 
Well obvious answer - our illustrious PM has less than half a brain.
Really Pete, thats your answer. It's as simple as that.

The simple truth is these pings originally heard could NEVER have been confused with the FR. Totally different frequencies, yet they were. How do we explain that. The PM might be a bonehead, but are we to believe his entire staff are boneheads as well. It's not like the PM got this info on his own, through his own contacts.
 
Then what do you do about the computer geek who knows too much?
What if the computer "geek" (hate that word by they way) is a government operative, or a terrorist specialist. I don't think you have to worry about them knowing too much or opening their mouths... Orders are orders
 
Citation?

from http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/24/world/asia/malaysia-mh-370-search/ ([annotations] and emphasis mine):

"[ATSB spokesperson] Dolan said he expects that the new analysis of the data from satellites, radar and other sources will shift the search area farther south in the Indian Ocean. But he said the team of experts that has been poring over the available information isn't relying on the Malaysian military's primary radar data as a measure of changes in altitude during the passenger jet's mysterious flight on March 8. Reports that emerged in the early stages of the investigation had suggested the plane may have made dramatic changes in altitude after it turned sharply off its scheduled path from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing.

The connection to the March 28 fuel analysis (and site move) is clear, as summarized by CNN safety analyst David Soucie (same article):

"information about altitude changes is important because it directly affects the calculation of the new search area. If the plane did not rise and fall sharply, "it changes the amount of time and the distance that the aircraft could have flown,"

(Note the reference to reduced time, directly contradicting the dictates of the Inmarsat arc. Soucie regurgitates the same logically impossible argument the ATSB advanced on March 28.)
 
from http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/24/world/asia/malaysia-mh-370-search/ ([annotations] and emphasis mine):

"[ATSB spokesperson] Dolan said he expects that the new analysis of the data from satellites, radar and other sources will shift the search area farther south in the Indian Ocean. But he said the team of experts that has been poring over the available information isn't relying on the Malaysian military's primary radar data as a measure of changes in altitude during the passenger jet's mysterious flight on March 8. Reports that emerged in the early stages of the investigation had suggested the plane may have made dramatic changes in altitude after it turned sharply off its scheduled path from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing.

The connection to the March 28 fuel analysis (and site move) is clear, as summarized by CNN safety analyst David Soucie (same article):

"information about altitude changes is important because it directly affects the calculation of the new search area. If the plane did not rise and fall sharply, "it changes the amount of time and the distance that the aircraft could have flown,"

(Note the reference to reduced time, directly contradicting the dictates of the Inmarsat arc. Soucie regurgitates the same logically impossible argument the ATSB advanced on March 28.)
So what do you think happend to MH370? I'd like to hear your "theory".
 
It's totally plausible for 'noise' to become a 'signal', for mistakes to be made and sent up the chain, and for what may have been cautiously suggested at the beginning become certainty by the time it gets passed on up through a bureaucracy - it doesn't have to be deliberately and deceptively done, which would be even more puzzling to explain logically.
And yes, Abbot wanted a 'win', and is totally capable of jumping the gun, or for the sycophants that accompany power to tell him what he wants to hear.
I'm sure they thought, based on the information at the time, it seemed a safe bet. He wouldn't delibereately make himself a fool. (But by his very nature he cannot fail to do so.)
 
What if the computer "geek" (hate that word by they way) is a government operative, or a terrorist specialist. I don't think you have to worry about them knowing too much or opening their mouths... Orders are orders
Snowden?

We've been through a period of "geek-chic" over here so its become less of a pejorative term.
 
(Edit: responding to Jason's post of 15 min ago ("what's your theory?"), which I don't see, here, now)

Either..

...the (presumably suicidal, per various speculative reports) pilot tried to ditch in the "roaring forties" - the least accessible spot possible (out of spite), and the rest of this fiasco is either GROTESQUE incompetence or a (sickening, in my opinion) attempt to save money (by searching closer to port, in calmer waters) during the "media frenzy" portion of the search), OR...

...the (presumably valuable, per various reports of mysterious cargo / expert passengers) plane's contents were abducted in order to extract their value - and the rest is a run-of-the-mill cover-up. #1033 describes one way this might have been achieved.

Every day the investigation team fails to admit to the former, I lean more toward the latter.
 
...the (presumably valuable, per various reports of mysterious cargo / expert passengers) plane's contents were abducted in order to extract their value
What fits in a cargo hold of a 737 thats valuable enough to fund the abduction operation, the coverup and generate a profit for the conspirators that is proportionate to the risks taken?
 
Why would it be a huge conspiracy though? Why must we always translate a CT into there being to many moving parts, and too many people have to be involved. According to those standards there could never ever be a CT, or a secret at the highest level, and well we know this to be untrue.

Too many people involved and too big risk for Inmarsat business. They are a serious western company and I believe them (note that I don't believe all western companies just the proven majority of them).

On April 9, after Aussie PM Abbott expressed supreme confidence in the position of MH370's FDR, I suspect you'd have felt that "any theory that disproves [the fuel analysis leading the search to 20s, or the acoustic pings keeping it there] delves into a huge conspiracy" - yet here we are, hundreds of miles from the then-official theory.

Trust me, Stevan: I am not "conspiracy-inclined" - I am "coincidence-averse". There is a big difference.

And the staggering coincidences seem to pile up higher and higher with each passing day. Something smells.

umm, can't see how it's connected with each other, Abbott is not the expert, Inmarsat technicians are

they just made the mistake in expressing supreme confidence regarding FDR and pings, that is all, Inmarsat doesn't have to express anything, they have a reliable data that is cross-checked, huge difference

Why does a CT have to involve a LARGE number of people? Why must we always make that correlation is all I'm saying?

in this (Inmarsat) case it would have as I suspect many ordinary employers have access to data, they aren't exactly intelligence service, just a satellite company

note that my speculation that puts the blame on malaysian government actually involves some sort of conspiracy as they fear (although they probably can't be certain) the pilots main goal was revealing their incompetence and brutality

that's not out of this world at all, you just have to live a bit longer in a 3rd world country to understand how low governments can go in hiding what they have(not) done

so to conclude, my view is that Inmarsat is to be believed but not malaysian government, because Inmarsat has revealed basically everything they had while Malaysians still keep secret things like fuel load, cargo list and many other things(except complete radar data that I understand why they don't publish) while I can't see how those could spoil the investigation, especially at this point

And honestly, how do they know this plane that popped up on radar after MH370 switched off it's communication is MH370. I never understood the part. When the plane turned its ACARS off, they noticed that another plane was flying in the opposite direction, at least this was the original news. How did they know for sure with a 100% certainty that this was flight 370. Also do radar recordings record altitude as well, or only direction and speed?

Because it was the only plane with transponder turned off, easy to assume it was MH370 (unless aliens sucked it into space and sent us its copy...).

(Edit: responding to Jason's post of 15 min ago ("what's your theory?"), which I don't see, here, now)

Either..

...the (presumably suicidal, per various speculative reports) pilot tried to ditch in the "roaring forties" - the least accessible spot possible (out of spite), and the rest of this fiasco is either GROTESQUE incompetence or a (sickening, in my opinion) attempt to save money (by searching closer to port, in calmer waters) during the "media frenzy" portion of the search), OR...

...the (presumably valuable, per various reports of mysterious cargo / expert passengers) plane's contents were abducted in order to extract their value - and the rest is a run-of-the-mill cover-up. #1033 describes one way this might have been achieved.

Every day the investigation team fails to admit to the former, I lean more toward the latter.

the Captain had the problems in his life but IMO not worth committing the suicide, especially bringing 200 souls with himself, also as he was actively campaigning against more radical Muslims that rule the country I would call it certain that he is the type of person that greatly despises 9/11 methods

also going to the least accesible spot possible is much easier to execute if you don't have to overfly Malaysia and fiddle with low-flying to evade radars, just take the flight to mideast and get south after you get to Andaman, nobody would notice anything, this way there was still a possibility that he gets military aircraft follow him (and alarm indonesian military to engage their planes, together with informing big countries to start satellite tracking)

speaking about valuable contents, noone would transport anything worth this type of hijacking without military escort, and that would be transported in military transport planes anyway

Intel - embedded in cargo or passengers - capable of imparting military dominance.

To name one.

huh, don't you think one of the big players(China? USA?) would chime in already on that? Their intelligence would sure know more details.

also don't you think they would apply satellite tracking of the plane if there was really something that important?

just doesn't make sense that China or USA get damage from all of this and still remain silent
 
Snowden?

We've been through a period of "geek-chic" over here so its become less of a pejorative term.
Ok, I'll give you that, but how many Snowden's are there in the world versus those who don't say a word. I'm guessing here, but Snowden isn't the norm. Now look at his life.
 
in this (Inmarsat) case it would have as I suspect many ordinary employers have access to data, they aren't exactly intelligence service, just a satellite company
Unless, it was 1 hacker who implanted the handshakes as I noted above. Then the company wouldn't be committing a cover up. They wouldn't know the wiser, which is the smartest way to go about this if you wanted to do it professionally, assuming those doing the job knew Inmarsat would've been brought into the investigation.

Because it was the only plane with transponder turned off, easy to assume it was MH370 (unless aliens sucked it into space and sent us its copy...).
Too funny, So your admitting it's an assumption based on the fact that MH370 shut their ACARS off, but do we have proof it was MH370. Did we actually see the plane make a turn on radar
 
It's totally plausible for 'noise' to become a 'signal', for mistakes to be made and sent up the chain, and for what may have been cautiously suggested at the beginning become certainty by the time it gets passed on up through a bureaucracy - it doesn't have to be deliberately and deceptively done, which would be even more puzzling to explain logically.
And yes, Abbot wanted a 'win', and is totally capable of jumping the gun, or for the sycophants that accompany power to tell him what he wants to hear.
I'm sure they thought, based on the information at the time, it seemed a safe bet. He wouldn't delibereately make himself a fool. (But by his very nature he cannot fail to do so.)
Ok, I can buy that Pete. But still jumping the gun on what information. The frequencies were never a match to begin with and were heard 300 kms apart from one another. Clearly a moving ping. And why did the information about the Ping being the wrong frequency and where it came from take so long to surface. Do you suspect the AU PM and company tried keeping a lid on it (out of embarrassment)
 
speaking about valuable contents, noone would transport anything worth this type of hijacking without military escort, and that would be transported in military transport planes anyway
I have to disagree with this assessment. We've seen it time and time again when governments try to send highly classified material or weapons using commercial shipping to state it wouldn't be done in a commercial airliner. How many ships get seized a year by the US for this reason?
 
I mean come one, if anyone of us had a family member on this plane we would be up in arms with the way this investigation has been handled. Don't say otherwise, please.

How would you have handled it differently?

  • If they waited to release every single detail (to check accuracy) they would be accused of hiding information from the families
  • If they speculate on where they think the plane went and don't immediately find it in an amazingly difficult area of the world, under seemingly unimaginable depths of ocean probably only really understood by submariners and that idiot that directed Titanic, they are accused of incompetence
  • If they don't release exact details of his home life and 'flight simulator' to the public they are accused of a cover up
  • If they respond to every crank theory and armchair crash investigator to refute their nonsense, it actually lend credibility to them
Not that I am accusing you of being one, the the CT debate is usually pretty simplistic, in which absence of evidence is evidence of cover-up.

Read through the detailed technical discussion between the pilots on this forum, and watch the BBC Doc and you see the CT people rarely have insight, or lets fact it, interest, at the discussion at that level. They prefer the "Its in Diego Garcia/Israel/Pakistan/Afghanistan" or it was because of "patents/the Rothschilds/Israel/Aliens"

To be fair the news does not help, as Fox invites and ex US Air Force General to relay a rumour he heard from Boeing that it is hijacked and in Pakistan, and CNN not to be outdone did a segment on mini black holes...
 
Intel - embedded in cargo or passengers - capable of imparting military dominance.

To name one.
There are surely cheaper, less conspicuous ways to abduct people than pulling a death defying switcheroo with a 737, nor does a commercial airline seem the best choice courier for technology that could tip the balance of global power
We've seen it time and time again when governments try to send highly classified material or weapons using commercial shipping
Have we? when?
 
Ok, I'll give you that, but how many Snowden's are there in the world versus those who don't say a word. I'm guessing here, but Snowden isn't the norm. Now look at his life.

not many, the Captain maybe tried to be another one...you can clearly see the parallel with Snowden in my theory, presenting world the true face of the government and requesting asylum in another country

Unless, it was 1 hacker who implanted the handshakes as I noted above. Then the company wouldn't be committing a cover up. They wouldn't know the wiser, which is the smartest way to go about this if you wanted to do it professionally, assuming those doing the job knew Inmarsat would've been brought into the investigation.


Too funny, So your admitting it's an assumption based on the fact that MH370 shut their ACARS off, but do we have proof it was MH370. Did we actually see the plane make a turn on radar

I must confess I'm not that versed in satellite tracking & recording data but I really really doubt their system is hackable, it's possibly not even connected to the Internet. And if you mean insider hacking I'm quite sure there is a redundancy and what not if it was a rogue employer, together with video surveillance etc. (every friggin small shop in UK has it)

yes they know the plane made the turn, the radar picture from Malacca Strait shows MH370(unless they are covering that too), and for the plane to go from South China Sea to Malacca Strait yes it has to make the turn and cross over Malaysia...it's quite clear to me

I have to disagree with this assessment. We've seen it time and time again when governments try to send highly classified material or weapons using commercial shipping to state it wouldn't be done in a commercial airliner. How many ships get seized a year by the US for this reason?

umm small countries yeah (North Korea ship in Panama etc.), but just not something China or USA would do, unless someone from their intelligence got really bored and decided to try such a stupid thing just for the sake of it (in which case it's totally another story)

How would you have handled it differently?

huh, I'm quite sure that some serious country would handle this in a much more transparent way, yes it probably wouldn't help the search but at least those bereaved would feel something has been tried
 
How would you have handled it differently?

You bring up excellent points, but the point I was trying to make was I would be so furious with the investigation if I lost a family member on that plane by now. I would've lost trust in them as well, since there have been several instances where they got something wrong, missinterpretted the data, and leaked false information to the media via the PM of AU, which wasted time and money searching an area that didn't need to be searched.
If they respond to every crank theory and armchair crash investigator to refute their nonsense, it actually lend credibility to them
I agree, but at least have a theory. What is the "official" theory as to what happened? There is none, instead they let the media speculate on possible theories, which in turn has fueled the CT debate..

Not that I am accusing you of being one, the the CT debate is usually pretty simplistic, in which absence of evidence is evidence of cover-up.
I agree, and I'm not a CTer, just curious and enjoy open discussion like this because it helps eliminate possible theories as to what happened. I agree the absence of evidence is usually evidence of a cover up. But what is the evidence we have so far, besides the missing plane and inmarsat data. Besides that we have nothing, so we're left scratching our heads and thats where the CT's come into play.

To be fair the news does not help, as Fox invites and ex US Air Force General to relay a rumour he heard from Boeing that it is hijacked and in Pakistan, and CNN not to be outdone did a segment on mini black holes...
Again I agree 100%. The media is mostly responsible for adding fuel to the fire on the CT front. They've done no justice by coming up with their off the wall theories. Fox wanted it to be terrorism (sean hannity) so he could point the finger at our President, and then there's CNN and honestly I have no idea what the hell they were thinking before printing some of their stories involving aliens and blackholes.. But guess what, their ratings went up as a result of them promoting CT's.
 
@Jason, a official theory has not been presented because TPTB don't know what happened. It is not required they present a theory absent facts to satisfy you or anyone. They have been disjointed in their messaging because there are many governments/entities involved and many asses to cover. Research crash investigations like Air France. It takes a long time even when you know approximately where the plane crashed.
 
huh, I'm quite sure that some serious country would handle this in a much more transparent way, yes it probably wouldn't help the search but at least those bereaved would feel something has been tried
I think Malaysia is a quite serious country...? If I were one of the bereaved, the only satisfying answer is "Here is exactly what happened", and as no-one actually knows I imagine they will continue to be tortured by every announcement until they get that.
 
I agree, but at least have a theory. What is the "official" theory as to what happened? There is none, instead they let the media speculate on possible theories, which in turn has fueled the CT debate..

I don't think there is an 'official' theory apart from 'we don't know' and I'm not really sure how any government can prevent the media from speculating.

I agree the absence of evidence is usually evidence of a cover up.

I disagree - The absence of evidence usually means its unknown. I don't immediately assume cover-ups and I'm logically comfortable with a situation of not being able to know everything, however emotionally unsatisfying that is.

News is a business and sadly it requires the unqualified and inept to talk about things they have little information about, and if they can get it to fit an agenda (Hannity) they will.
 
I disagree - The absence of evidence usually means its unknown. I don't immediately assume cover-ups and I'm logically comfortable with a situation of not being able to know everything, however emotionally unsatisfying that is.
News is a business and sadly it requires the unqualified and inept to talk about things they have little information about, and if they can get it to fit an agenda (Hannity) they will.
Correction, I meant I agree with your statement, just worded it wrong
 
I think Malaysia is a quite serious country...? If I were one of the bereaved, the only satisfying answer is "Here is exactly what happened", and as no-one actually knows I imagine they will continue to be tortured by every announcement until they get that.

serious country? jailing opposition leader because of alleged homosexuality? That's not a serious country in my book, even Balkan countries don't do that. Also the level of corruption and nepotism is incredibly huge, which leads to all sorts of incompetence...
 
why has the Malaysian government redacted parts of the Inmarsat Data. There's over an hour of missing data? Does anyone know the reasoning for this or how if this information is released it might interfere with the investigation?
 
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