Flight MH370 Speculation

[Jason]

@TWCobra - You mentioned the anomaly in the ATC recordings, specifically the double transmission of FL350 8 minutes apart. Could this be consistent an early sign of hypoxia?

It seems like many foreign news sites are reporting the hypoxia scenario now as the most likely cause for the planes disappearance. But if hypoxia happened everyone sufficated and the pilot was still conscious why wouldn't he have just turned back and landed in Malaysia. Instead he plot a course "around" indonesia and towards AU... To say he was going to hijack the plane and this happened in route, what are the odds of this happening. http://www.emirates247.com/news/mis...all-before-crash-in-water-2014-06-28-1.546548

"Given these observations, the final stages of the unresponsive crew, hypoxia event type appeared to best fit the available evidence for the final period of MH370's flight when it was heading in a generally southerly direction," the ATSB report said.

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[vooke]

Two other possibilities:

- Pilot tries to crash plane into some perceived enemy (or symbol thereof), and is either shot down or diverted by remote control.

- Pilot takes passengers hostage, tries to negotiate (with, say, Malay gov't) - when that fails, he carries out his threat.

But with each passing day's misinformation deluge, the stock on some sort of US(-allied) abduction scenario just keeps rising.

I think you are right, your hypothesis makes the most sense. Fear of debunkers being labelled CTers is clouding judgement here

 

[Mick West]

I think you are right, your hypothesis makes the most sense. Fear of debunkers being labelled CTers is clouding judgement here

Quite the contrary. I think Occam's razor is clarifying judgement here. Problems with the investigation can be more attributed to incompetence and lack of openness. No need to invoke incredible theories to explain them.

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

Why is that a conclusion we should consider viable? Why does the lack of clear information make this most likely?

The more the ATSB issues provable lies, the deeper my suspicion of a cover-up.

The longer the ATSB clings to these lies, the deeper my conviction that the activity being covered up is nefarious.

And I would not deem any agent other than the US Do"D" capable of doctoring the Inmarsat evidence, or commandeering the plane via hijacking/remote control*.

* With all due respect to WW: anyone who claims remote control is "impossible" needs to add "as far as I'm aware" in there, somewhere. Such a feat is not beyond the realm of human technology, and its development and use (especially in beta testing...) would be highly secretive. Did MH370 go in for "repairs" just prior to this flight...?

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

Five reasonable questions for the ATSB re: fig.4, p.6, “MH370 – Definition of Underwater Search Areas”, released June 26:

(notation: IACMRL = Inmarsat arc-constrained maximum range line)

1. The NW bound for S1/S2/S3 is clearly the 8:11 Inmarsat arc; what is the SE bound – is it IACMRL, pre-March 27?

2. The NW bound for S4/S5 is clearly also the 8:11 Inmarsat arc; what is the SE bound – is it IACMRL, March 27-April 1?

Assuming I have 1. and 2. correct:

3. If the only reason for moving from 1. to 2. was “less available fuel”, why do IACMRLs 1. and 2. cross at S26.5?

4. The IACMRL that is plotted in fig.4 seems (per fig.20) to be the LIVE version (i.e. post-abandonment of radar-indicated altitude data) – on what date was it first computed?

5. If later than April 1, what was your live IACMRL from April 1 until [answer to 4]?

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

it's not possible to accidentally enter the flight path that goes around Indonesia, sorry, that had to be done by conscious person

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

* With all due respect to WW: anyone who claims remote control is "impossible" needs to add "as far as I'm aware" in there, somewhere. Such a feat is not beyond the realm of human technology, and its development and use (especially in beta testing...) would be highly secretive. Did MH370 go in for "repairs" just prior to this flight...?

it's not beyond realm but why would they do that and what would they achieve? Also it's never one mechanic maintaining the plane, there would have to be more persons involved so tough chance.

Also it's so complicated it's probably cheaper to buy the damn plane than organize everything and pay everyone. It just doesn't make sense on so many aspects.

What bothers me is they have searched only south part of the arc designing those areas only on huge assumption that plane had constant speed&altitude. While I do agree that area also has to be searched why concentrating all assets there, it just doesn't make any sense. Also from the economic point of view it would be much better to start searching from islands with capable airports(Cocos&Christmas Island) so basically all the fuel and energy they spend goes into search, this way they fly thousand miles from Perth and thousand back just to search a little bit of area.

 

[TWCobra]

Possible, but at 35000 ft the time of useful consciousness is about 30 seconds, so it doesn't gel with the normal change of frequency exchange at IGARI. A depressurisation problem would have been reported via the ACARS as well.

 

[BombDr]

The more the ATSB issues provable lies, the deeper my suspicion of a cover-up.

The longer the ATSB clings to these lies, the deeper my conviction that the activity being covered up is nefarious.

And I would not deem any agent other than the US Do"D" capable of doctoring the Inmarsat evidence, or commandeering the plane via hijacking/remote control*.

* With all due respect to WW: anyone who claims remote control is "impossible" needs to add "as far as I'm aware" in there, somewhere. Such a feat is not beyond the realm of human technology, and its development and use (especially in beta testing...) would be highly secretive. Did MH370 go in for "repairs" just prior to this flight...?

Don't you think if taking a an aircraft is your objective, for whatever reason, that retro-fitting an experimental remote control system is rather an elaborate and risk-inducing method for doing so? Harldy seems foolproof...

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

this is the flight path(northern variant) that just skims indonesian airspace, notice the VAMPI to MEKAR is confirmed with malaysian radar

http://imgur.com/xTa3tbq

I have set the speed to 320 kts to correspond with pings, the plane could be intentionally flown slower because the Christmas Island airport doesn't have runway lights so the pilot waited for daylight

http://skyvector.com/?ll=-9.4909633...OD:F.YM.AKUKO:F.YM.TATOD:F.YM.ISRAN:A.YM.YPXM

my take is that they crashed(and possibly sunk) some 20-30 miles SE of the airport because of unknown reasons, there could be many

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

(To be clear: I truly enjoy spirited argument, and appreciate the decorum with which my speculations are being challenged - so please accept what follows in the spirit of friendly debate.)

The anti-CT crowd needs to give its head a shake, here, lest its valuable energies be wasted on meagre speculations like mine. I have NO IDEA where 370 lies - I was asked - on an "MH370 Speculation" thread - to speculate. So I did.

I shouldn't have. It's depressing to see how much more energy is put into debunking MY uneducated offering than is put into challenging the ATSB (and whoever it's shilling for). Occam's Razor? Just step back and take a good look at what we are being asked to swallow. In 2014, in my opinion, the only way a jumbo jet could stay this lost for this long is if Western governments contributed less than 100% of their combined efforts and technology to its discovery.

And/or more than 0% to its disappearance...

 

[Jason]

Don't you think if taking a an aircraft is your objective, for whatever reason, that retro-fitting an experimental remote control system is rather an elaborate and risk-inducing method for doing so? Harldy seems foolproof...

I agree, you're better off just putting a few hijackers on the plane that know how to fly. With a remote control you'd have to deal with the pilots combatting it and trying to figure out where the signal was coming from because they would surely know someone or something else is flying the plane. They're not just going to sit there and throw their hands up in the air

 

[TWCobra]

Christmas Island airport doesn't have runway lights so the pilot waited for daylight

It has pilot activated lights (PAL). Three keys of the microphone and voila... Lights!

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

Don't you think if taking a an aircraft is your objective, for whatever reason, that retro-fitting an experimental remote control system is rather an elaborate and risk-inducing method for doing so? Harldy seems foolproof...

Drones strikes are elaborate, risk-inducing, and nowhere near foolproof. Yet the skies are now chock full of them.

I think we need a point of reference, here. To what simple, safe, and foolproof jumbo jet abduction plan are you comparing it?

 

[Mick West]

Drones strikes are elaborate, risk-inducing, and nowhere near foolproof. Yet the skies are now chock full of them.

I think we need a point of reference, here. To what simple, safe, and foolproof jumbo jet abduction plan are you comparing it?

Couple of hijackers in first class. Rig the lock on the door.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

It has pilot activated lights (PAL). Three keys of the microphone and voila... Lights!

still easier to land on a relatively short runway during day, and they probably wanted to land as light as possible so had to burn more fuel

also is it possible to turn off radio too if all other comms are already turned off(to prevent copilot from talking to ATC)? In that case PAL couldn't work.

 

[TWCobra]

Stevan, sorry but I think your scenario is very unlikely.

 

[BombDr]

Drones strikes are elaborate, risk-inducing, and nowhere near foolproof. Yet the skies are now chock full of them.

I think we need a point of reference, here. To what simple, safe, and foolproof jumbo jet abduction plan are you comparing it?

UAVs are designed without the pilot and they have a dedicated factory and team to fly and maintain them. Of themselves they are not secret, just usually their mission is.

Boeing designed the 777 with a flight crew, and to retro fit the jet for remote takeover will require some element of experimentation, modification and (my assumption) probably not something that could be done without the ground maintenance team and aircrew noticing.

Keeping it secret is the risk element here.

It's not impossible, as demonstrated here:



And whilst an old 727 with cables is not the same as a modern 777 the whole documentary shows a lot of the problems involved with remote flying of a jet. Every person you get involved in your plan increases the risk of discovery. A simpler plan would involve a smaller number of people taking over the cockpit and flying it to where they wanted it to go, or forcing the in-place crew to do so. This is not new.

 

[BombDr]

(To be clear: I truly enjoy spirited argument, and appreciate the decorum with which my speculations are being challenged - so please accept what follows in the spirit of friendly debate.)

The anti-CT crowd needs to give its head a shake, here, lest its valuable energies be wasted on meagre speculations like mine. I have NO IDEA where 370 lies - I was asked - on an "MH370 Speculation" thread - to speculate. So I did.

I shouldn't have. It's depressing to see how much more energy is put into debunking MY uneducated offering than is put into challenging the ATSB (and whoever it's shilling for). Occam's Razor? Just step back and take a good look at what we are being asked to swallow. In 2014, in my opinion, the only way a jumbo jet could stay this lost for this long is if Western governments contributed less than 100% of their combined efforts and technology to its discovery.

And/or more than 0% to its disappearance...

It is not only 'Western' governments that are involved in this mystery, and being so multi-national and multi-agency, its not like there is a single entity that can control all the information that is being released or examined.

Your incredulity that it has not been found is reasonable, considering the effort spent so far, and technology involved, but regardless of effort and technology, you must remember that the size of the area to be searched and the depths of the ocean is by itself mind-bogglingly huge, and it does not surprise me that much that something so relatively small cannot immediately be found.

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

Couple of hijackers in first class. Rig the lock on the door.

You mean government agents in first class. If these were anti-establishment hijackers, it would be the first time in forever (I have daughters...) they remained silent throughout.

All I'm saying is that, just like drone strikes are already taking over from more rugged means of killing, remote control will one day take over from more rugged means of making an airliner go (safely away from) somewhere. It is reasonable to suppose we are witnessing the first (mis?)steps in that direction.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

Stevan, sorry but I think your scenario is very unlikely.

why? it's clear as day the PIC had intention to go around Indonesia, so there is much bigger chance he had a goal than not, just failed to provide

 

[vooke]

You mean government agents in first class. If these were anti-establishment hijackers, it would be the first time in forever (I have daughters...) they remained silent throughout.

All I'm saying is that, just like drone strikes are already taking over from more rugged means of killing, remote control will one day take over from more rugged means of making an airliner go (safely away from) somewhere. It is reasonable to suppose we are witnessing the first (mis?)steps in that direction.

A conspiracy of this magnitude, what would it entail?
There is Inmarsat, all the countries in the search, Malaysian government...hard to fathom but it is increasingly looking more plausible than even incompetence or opaqueness

 

[Mick West]

A conspiracy of this magnitude, what would it entail?
There is Inmarsat, all the countries in the search, Malaysian government...hard to fathom but it is increasingly looking more plausible than even incompetence or opaqueness

I'm confused as to how you note the incredible magnitude of the required conspiracy, and then state is seems more plausible than the alternatives.

 

[Jason]

It bothers me that we have to call speculation a conspiracy theory. Why must we label it a conspiracy if we still don't know the facts about what happened. In the case of 9-11 we have all the evidence and know the facts, so anything other than the real story should be considered a CT. But with respect to MH370, all we have are bits and pieces of the larger picture. When the media speculates or "experts" speculate, its just that, but when the public discusses plausible outcomes, its immediately labled a CT, why? How is the person saying it could have landed on an island more right than the person who thinks it crashed into the ocean? Or how is the person who says it's suicide more right than the person who says it's a hijacking. Niether should approach this topic with 100% certainty, because neither can prove they are more right than the other. And until we know for sure what happened, its all just speculation

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

I'm confused as to how you note the incredible magnitude of the required conspiracy, and then state is seems more plausible than the alternatives.

Just like democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others - I find a government-caused disappearance the least plausible theory - except for all the others.

 

[Jason]

Just like democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others - I find a government-caused disappearance the least plausible theory - except for all the others.

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what you were trying to say, could you explain it a little bit better

 

[Mick West]

It bothers me that we have to call speculation a conspiracy theory. Why must we label it a conspiracy if we still don't know the facts about what happened. In the case of 9-11 we have all the evidence and know the facts, so anything other than the real story should be considered a CT. But with respect to MH370, all we have are bits and pieces of the larger picture. When the media speculates or "experts" speculate, its just that, but when the public discusses plausible outcomes, its immediately labled a CT, why?

There are various theories. Accident. Suicide. Hijacking. Hijacking with government cover up. Some of them involve a conspiracy, so they are the conspiracy theories.

The suicide theory is not a conspiracy theory. Nor is the accident theory. But if someone makes a theory that includes a vast conspiracy, then what should we call it? The "theory with conspiracy", the "theory where lots of people planned in secret and there's a big cover up", "the secret government plot theory".

 

[Mick West]

Just like democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others - I find a government-caused disappearance the least plausible theory - except for all the others.

What the heck is wrong with the "crazy pilot suicide and incompetent investigation" theory?

 

[Mick West]

Just like democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others - I find a government-caused disappearance the least plausible theory - except for all the others.

And would you be prepared to wager on that? Say $100? If the black box is found, and the cause is determined.

 

[Jason]

There are various theories. Accident. Suicide. Hijacking. Hijacking with government cover up. Some of them involve a conspiracy, so they are the conspiracy theories.

The suicide theory is not a conspiracy theory. Nor is the accident theory. But if someone makes a theory that includes a vast conspiracy, then what should we call it? The "theory with conspiracy", the "theory where lots of people planned in secret and there's a big cover up", "the secret government plot theory".

That makes sense Mick, but it's really just speculation until we have all the facts. If we get the FR and it shows the pilot was crazy and wanted to commit suicide but after this revelation portions of the public don't accept it and offer other theories as to what happened, that would be construed as a CT. For me, and I might be wrong, we can't have a CT unless we know the facts. A CT argues against the "facts" and gives other "plausible" theories (some more plausible than others, but ultimately wrong). For now it's all speculation whether its a gov cover up, hijacking, suicide, remote control take over or what have you. Once the truth is established, and these theories persist then they become a CT. Its all speculation until proven otherwise (since we don't have all the facts)..

 

[Mick West]

That makes sense Mick, but it's really just speculation until we have all the facts. If we get the FR and it shows the pilot was crazy and wanted to commit suicide but after this revelation portions of the public don't accept it and offer other theories as to what happened, that would be construed as a CT. For me, and I might be wrong, we can't have a CT unless we know the facts. A CT argues against the "facts" and gives other "plausible" theories (some more plausible than others, but ultimately wrong). For now it's all speculation whether its a gov cover up, hijacking, suicide, remote control take over or what have you. Once the truth is established, and these theories persist then they become a CT. Its all speculation until proven otherwise (since we don't have all the facts)..

Yeah, this is the speculation thread. But you can still speculate (theorize) that there was a conspiracy. Hence there are conspiracy theories, and suicide theories, and accident theories, and combinations of these.

"Conspiracy" does not mean "contradicts the official story", it means that people conspired - that they plotted in secret.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory

A conspiracy theory is an explanatory proposition that accuses two or more persons, a group, or an organization of having caused or covered up, through secret planning and deliberate action, an illegal or harmful event or situation.

Content from External Source

So it's perfectly reasonable to speculate that there might have been a conspiracy, even if we know no facts, and there's no "official story".

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

what do you think plausible or not?

You can see that position of final arc intersects the yellow line (maximum range) which would mean they ran out of fuel exactly at the point of left turn and glided further 40-50 miles to the north.

(from the official ATSB report) analysis indicated that the end of the flight occurred between 0214.26 and 0215.14, which makes a flight time since the last reported position of about 5 minutes

which means they couldn't land on CI in 5 minutes from anywhere on that gray line, so we can be sure they haven't landed there but quite possibly tried

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

And would you be prepared to wager on that? Say $100? If the black box is found, and the cause is determined.

I am arguing that US abduction wins a plurality of the probability points in my book (i.e. Pr(US abduction)=0.10, Pr(shot down / diverted) = 0.08, Pr(pilot suicide) = 0.07...). If you give me the reciprocal of each as odds, you're on.

Of course, no money should change hands if the "finder" and "determiner" are the suspect(s). If I've bet that the pilot did it, and the pilot himself pops out of the woodwork, finds the plane, and issues a report exonerating himself, I wouldn't consider that particularly conclusive. Ditto the US and its allies.

What could be fairer?

But look - if you need to make a quick hundred bucks, just please get the ATSB to answer the 5 simple questions I pose at the top of page 29. I will happily pay $100 to whoever cajoles the answers out of them first.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

why would US do that if they can buy hundreds of 777s and do with them whatever they wanted?

 

[Jason]

I am arguing that US abduction wins a plurality of the probability points in my book (i.e. Pr(US abduction)=0.10

Why does the US win the "plurality" for abduction? How many planes have the US abducted throughout history? I honestly think that's the least likely. I would like to know more about this mysterious phone call the pilot made to some female who had a throw away phone. 1. How do they know the pilot made this call. 2. If they know the pilot called some female, then they probably know the contents of this call. I think this could give us an indication into the mindset of the pilot prior to take off

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

I see we're also chatting about semantics. Can I please propose three classes of CTs:

1. CTs that are not based in evidence - these are proved wrong by logic and/or evidence - debunked, in other words.

2. CTs that are unproven, but based on evidence strong enough to remain a part of the collective "realm of possibility".

3. CTs that are proven (anyone suggesting a proven T is no longer a T is challenged to remove by proof the T from the T of gravity. Ideally, this should involve an anvil, and a skeptic).

Example: "US lied about WMD" grew from a category 2 CT in 2003 to the category 3 CT it is today.

I feel the evidence (length of time MH370 has gone unfound, compared to depth and breadth of the surveillance capabilities of the US govt ALONE; also by comparing actual to expected debris fields under each of the various official theories leading to the Southern arc; also number of provable lies issued by the investigation) puts beyond reasonable doubt the likelihood that SOMEONE in power knows where this plane is, and isn't telling us.

That puts the GENERAL form of the MH370 CT (previous para) squarely into category 3.

 

[Jason]

I see we're also chatting about semantics. Can I please propose three classes of CTs:

1. CTs that are not based in evidence - these are proved wrong by logic and/or evidence - debunked, in other words.

2. CTs that are unproven, but based on evidence strong enough to remain a part of the collective "realm of possibility".

3. CTs that are proven (anyone suggesting a proven T is no longer a T is challenged to remove by proof the T from the T of gravity. Ideally, this should involve an anvil, and a skeptic).

Example: "US lied about WMD" grew from a category 2 CT in 2003 to the category 3 CT it is today.

I feel the evidence (length of time MH370 has gone unfound, compared to depth and breadth of the surveillance capabilities of the US govt ALONE; also by comparing actual to expected debris fields under each of the various official theories leading to the Southern arc; also number of provable lies issued by the investigation) puts beyond reasonable doubt the likelihood that SOMEONE in power knows where this plane is, and isn't telling us.

That puts the GENERAL form of the MH370 CT (previous para) squarely into category 3.

I'll admit this MH370 has brought be so ever close to the rabbit hole once again, tempting to go down those paths, and from time to time I catch myself before there's no turning back. But there's no evidence for a "cover up" yet, and that's glaringly obvious by the AU PM's misguided statements about the possible location of the missing plane due to the pings discovered in the SIO. I'd imagine that news would never be leaked or surface is "covert" powers were trying to cover up the missing plane, because all it does is pose more questions and inject more doubt, making the conspirators job much harder than it has to be.

The US surveillance capabilities isn't fully understood, and while it's comforting to think my country can watch the entire globe from pole to pole, it's also highly unlikely. I admit, if they have any satellite imagery or information they should share that with the investigators because it doesn't sit well with the public and families who lost loved ones. Did anyone ever consider that perhaps the US wants the world to think they are watching and listening to everything, when in actuality there capability is no where near that.

Who knows, there are so many unanswered questions and it's hard to sit back and wait for answers that don't seem to be coming. I think the phone call the pilot made before taking off could be a really important piece to the puzzle, just my gut, but then again I'm not an investigator. Who did he call, and what was discussed could help investigators, and that's something the NSA or US might be able to help with.

I don't understand the need to abduct a plane, when the US government could get their hands on one through back channels that could never be linked to the government, and terrorist could do the same if they had enough money. As for using the plane in a future attack to deliver a nuclear weapon or biological weapon, there are so many easier and more practical ways to go about it, then flying a stolen jumbo jet into US airspace without a transponder on. Hell if someone wanted to they could do it with the right resources and connections. No need for a stolen jumbo jet.

 

[BombDr]

I feel the evidence (length of time MH370 has gone unfound, compared to depth and breadth of the surveillance capabilities of the US govt ALONE

What US surveillance assets are monitoring the bottom of the Indian Ocean?

 

[zebra100]

What really bothers me is that all the official bets are based on Inmarsat damned handshake pings. No one asked if this god sent pings could be faked, duplicated or manipulated. They believed no one else knew these secret pings were sending out and so they even didn't question about it. Actually, the satcom hardware is attainable in open market and ping response system is likely duplicable (Boeing claimed all its communication software on 777 can be downloaded and updated through portable device for reducing maintenance time) . Remember the ping was mysteriously interrupted about the time MH370 disappeared on military radar and rebooted afterwards-everyone assumed the second reboot near the end of MH370 was caused by power failure due to fuel exhaustion but no one questioned the first one. There is a possibility of cut off and switch over if we are talking about CT

CT needs political purpose. And now we have one here: it's very rare for a hi-tech company to send 20 of their elites to Malaysia and back on the same airplane and what they deal with: radar cloaking which the Chinese scientists owned patents for this US company and with the exact tech which US government blamed Chinese government stealing from it--how strange combination it is! And Sarah Bajc was exploring that respect of MH370 and her apartment in Beijing was claimed being broken in and searched by a mysterious party--let's talk about CTs!

If this CT and governments are involved, to plan the whole scenario with these pings is not that difficult and maybe the Malaysia woman was right-MH370 was all time lying down at bottom of Bengal Bay because it is not supposed to be found by anyone while to manipulate Boeing 777 by remote is not a problem at all which already tested by Boeing after 9/11

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

too far-fetched, if US/China/Russia wanted to get rid of those 20 elites they could find a LOT easier and safer way to do so.