Flight MH370 Speculation

[Jason]

A 2% grade in a runway surface is NOT a problem for an experienced pilot.

Isn't it also important to note that pilots rarely ever land the plane on their own these days. In fact doesn't autopilot pretty much get the plane on the ground, and it will disengage once the wheels touch the runway. So practicing a landing seems like a moot point.

I think the more important question, if I may, is why would an experienced pilot who has a full time job and flies all year long need to require his spare time playing with a flight simulator. A pilot, as far as I can tell, pretty much flew similar flight all year long. Would a pilot with 2 decades of experience be bothered with fooling around on a simulator on his day off? From what I gather, and by the responses on here it was nothing more than an upgraded video game. Who doesn't love a good game here and there, hell I even own a PS4 (don't tell my 9yr old because he thinks its his). But when I play games I like a challenge, something out of my comfort zone. What would an experienced pilot with over 20yrs of flying experience find challenging on a simulator "game". Could be Diego Garcia, because he knows he would never be allowed to land there in a million years, but still sort of boring. What do pilots love about flying and the airports they vist? Do they like practicing on the hardest runways in the world, or flying into the Maldives or Diego Garcia, because I could name a handful of aiports in the world that are 100 times more intriguing than those two...

And I open the question up to pilots on this forum. Would you fool aroud with a simulator on your day off after flying for over 20yrs? If you did what sort of scenarios would intrigue you or that might challenge you. So that you would want to play on it. I say play on it, because everyone is chalking it up to no more than a video game..

 

[WeedWhacker]

Isn't it also important to note that pilots rarely ever land the plane on their own these days. In fact doesn't autopilot pretty much get the plane on the ground

No.

Jason, we discussed this in PMs. I think I might not have explained it well.

The AutoLand function of the autopilots is NOT used regularly. AutoLand Procedures (In CAT IIIA, IIIB and IIIC conditions) are performed because of the low visibility situations.

In normal flight operations, on perfectly clear days, we (as crew) are encouraged to occasionally (once a month) "practice" our AutoLand Procedure (this involves doing the "full monty", just like the "real thing"...including all of the appropriate crew coordination call-outs).

An AutoLand has certain strict criteria, including headwind/tailwind and crosswind components of less than 10 knots (for the assigned runway). Among other things.

But, in general, ALL landings in visual conditions are done by hand. CAT III situations are rare. Even CAT II ILS procedures, though flown by the AutoPilot to a point of about 50 feet above the runway, are still landed by hand, because the A/P MUST be disconnected no lower than 50 feet....in a CAT II Approach.

it's complicated....sorry.

 

[Qualiall]

I apologize for asking this, but there is new speculation out that says they have proof the Pilot was behind the disappearance. However I am at work and blocked from the stories. Can someone see if it makes sense?

link

More than three months after Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 and its 239 passengers went missing without a trace, the pilot of the plane is now the “chief suspect” in Malaysia's official police investigation, according to The Sunday Times.

Captain Zaharie Shah, 53, reportedly had made no social or work-related plans for the future, unlike the rest of the plane’s crew, the Times writes. Investigators were also able to analyze data off of Shah’s personal flight simulator, which he had programmed to practice landing on a short runway on islands in the southern Indian Ocean. The data had been deleted but were recovered by investigators, according to the report.

The investigators have not ruled out the possibility that the plane’s disappearance was the result of mechanical failure or an act of terrorism, but if it went missing due to human intervention, the pilot is considered the most likely "culprit," according to the Times.

Content from External Source

 

[Jason]

No.

Jason, we discussed this in PMs. I think I might not have explained it well.

The AutoLand function of the autopilots is NOT used regularly. AutoLand Procedures (In CAT IIIA, IIIB and IIIC conditions) are performed because of the low visibility situations.

In normal flight operations, on perfectly clear days, we (as crew) are encouraged to occasionally (once a month) "practice" our AutoLand Procedure (this involves doing the "full monty", just like the "real thing"...including all of the appropriate crew coordination call-outs).

An AutoLand has certain strict criteria, including headwind/tailwind and crosswind components of less than 10 knots (for the assigned runway). Among other things.

But, in general, ALL landings in visual conditions are done by hand. CAT III situations are rare. Even CAT II ILS procedures, though flown by the AutoPilot to a point of about 50 feet above the runway, are still landed by hand, because the A/P MUST be disconnected no lower than 50 feet....in a CAT II Approach.

it's complicated....sorry.

Don't be sorry, you're right I did missunderstand you, and it is complicated for a layman such as myself. But still I would appreciate your opinion on the other questions I asked in that post. Thanks TJ

 

[Mick West]

I apologize for asking this, but there is new speculation out that says they have proof the Pilot was behind the disappearance. However I am at work and blocked from the stories. Can someone see if it makes sense?

link

More than three months after Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 and its 239 passengers went missing without a trace, the pilot of the plane is now the “chief suspect” in Malaysia's official police investigation, according to The Sunday Times.

Captain Zaharie Shah, 53, reportedly had made no social or work-related plans for the future, unlike the rest of the plane’s crew, the Times writes. Investigators were also able to analyze data off of Shah’s personal flight simulator, which he had programmed to practice landing on a short runway on islands in the southern Indian Ocean. The data had been deleted but were recovered by investigators, according to the report.

The investigators have not ruled out the possibility that the plane’s disappearance was the result of mechanical failure or an act of terrorism, but if it went missing due to human intervention, the pilot is considered the most likely "culprit," according to the Times.

Content from External Source

Just says he's the most likely suspect if someone flew the plane away. But that's a pretty short list to start with.

 

[derwoodii]

is the idea of a copy mimic flight eg use the same bird following the predicted imsat path worthy?? this to test the engines ping data vs extrapolated flight path & try to host it with similar weather pattern of the event day

a problem is end of flight bingo fuel load so maybe a hurdle here

 

[WeedWhacker]

is the idea of a copy mimic flight eg use the same bird following the predicted imsat path worthy??

No, not really. This sort of "mind exercise" goes well off into the realm of (almost) Hollywood screenwriters' territory.

(EDIT: I just gave a budding screenwriter a "script idea"....believe me, I've had a few myself...never amounted to much, in that area...or else, I'd be living in a $5 million dollar mansion by now)....

 

[Qualiall]

Just says he's the most likely suspect if someone flew the plane away. But that's a pretty short list to start with.

Thank's Mick.
Malaysia now again denies Pilot is main suspect:
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/ca.../mh370-still-somewhere-in-south-indian-ocean/

Malaysia recently denied reports that MH370 pilot, Captain Zaharie Shah, was the prime suspect in the tragic incident.

Content from External Source

 

[BombDr]

Has this made its way over the pond yet? BBC Horizon:



As usual, it's in the BBC's normal neutral, factual tone. I sent it to one of my Youtube contacts who dismissed it straight away as 'The BBC work for MI6' etc....

Anyway, a LOT of information and stuff hardly ever discussed on the emotive internet and dumbed down 24Hr news: I realise its an hour long, but Id be interested in what the more aviation minded here think...(my efforts in a Cessna don't count) Especially the part about the lithium batteries...?

(As an aside, I read the comments about Parachute exit from the aircraft... and explosive method of exit of an aircraft in flight: All really bad ideas. Iv done military static line, sport freefall, HALO and HAHO and no-one had ever thought explosive egress in flight is a viable idea...)

 

[TWCobra]

I would commend that documentary to anyone on this thread.

My thoughts:

Lithium ion batteries. A fire might explain a crash but it doesn't explain the very short time between a routine change of frequency communication with the aircraft, the lack of any distress call, and the subsequent turns.

For info, about 6 weeks after the disappearance, lithium ion batteries were banned from carriage on passenger aircraft. Whether there is a connection there is doubtful, the aviation world doesn't act that fast without compelling evidence.

The southern route: I always thought that the initial search area where the pings were detected required the aircraft to be flying far too slowly at altitude. It would have had to be very low to match the groundspeed required. The more southern search area makes a lot more sense from that point of view.

Comms: the transcript of the comms from the aircraft contains an anomaly that is probably unimportant, but should be acknowledged. The aircraft reported maintaining FL350 when it reached the altitude and then about 7 minutes later did the same thing.
Aircraft aren't required to do this in a radar environment; they are only required to report leaving an altitude on descent. The first report may have been a simple procedural error, but I don't know why it was repeated seven minutes later.

It probably means nothing, but it is the only comms anomaly I can see.

 

[Jason]

Comms: the transcript of the comms from the aircraft contains an anomaly that is probably unimportant, but should be acknowledged. The aircraft reported maintaining FL350 when it reached the altitude and then about 7 minutes later did the same thing.
Aircraft aren't required to do this in a radar environment; they are only required to report leaving an altitude on descent. The first report may have been a simple procedural error, but I don't know why it was repeated seven minutes later.

What could be the reasoning for this repeat anomaly if you care to speculate? Could the pilot have forgotten he contacted them the first time when he reached altitude? Could the pilot have not known he was in a radar environment? Does the pilot or co-pilot normally call this in? Could it have been "him" checking to see if they noticed that the plane descended or ascended? Or is that impossible to determine in a radar environment?

 

[Jason]

The first report may have been a simple procedural error, but I don't know why it was repeated seven minutes later.

Would you mind elaborating on the pilot radio jargin for those of us who are unfamilar with how pilots talk? What would the wording in a transcript look like if the plane was descending or ascending? Also why didn't ATC notice that the pilot made the same radio contact 7 minutes later. Is the plane usually in contact with the same individual at ATC, or does anyone answer the communications? If it was the same person, don't you think they might have thought it was strange as well, or would've possibly asked for clarification.

 

[TWCobra]

As I said, the call is not required when reaching a cleared altitude in a radar environment. But it is an innocuous error if done. If the person who did it, probably the FO, thought he was required to do it and then forgot he did, he may have repeated the call. ATC simply acknowledged both calls.

It is probably unimportant and since the aircraft flew for 8 hours, that portion of the the CVR will have been overwritten so we will never know what prompted it I guess.

 

[Jason]

since the aircraft flew for 8 hours, that portion of the the CVR will have been overwritten so we will never know what prompted it I guess

Please elaborate, what do you mean by overwritten. If it's been overwritten how do we have transcripts to begin with.

 

[Jason]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...-southern-Indian-Ocean-on-home-simulator.html

The telegraph and other sites are reporting that the recovered flight simulator had a deleted flight path that the Captain practiced which would've landed the plane on an Island in the south Indian Ocean and that the Captain is the main suspect in the hijacking now.

Sources close to the investigation confirmed to The Telegraph on Sunday that a deleted flight path had been recovered from Capt Zaharie's simulator which had been used to practice landing an aircraft on a small runway on an unnamed island in the far southern Indian Ocean.

The discovery leaves Capt Zaharie as the prime suspect in a crime which cannot yet be proven to have been committed – and Malaysian police have been careful in their public comments to stress that all leads are still being investigated and no conclusions have been reached.

Content from External Source

 

[TWCobra]

Please elaborate, what do you mean by overwritten. If it's been overwritten how do we have transcripts to begin with.

A CVR only retains the last 2 or 3 hours of the cockpit conversations. It is on a continuous loop which gets overwritten.

 

[TWCobra]

Sources close to the investigation confirmed to The Telegraph on Sunday that a deleted flight path had been recovered from Capt Zaharie's simulator which had been used to practice landing an aircraft on a small runway on an unnamed island in the far southern Indian Ocean.

There aren't any of these. Kerguelen Island has no airport. Heard Island ditto. The Possession Islands, much further west.. the same.

Port Louis and Port Denis do but are east of Madagascar and 6 hours flying in nil wind from the top of Sumatra so probably just out of range and it is a fairly populated islands.

Apart from that, there are no runways, small or otherwise in the far southern Indian Ocean.

 

[Jason]

There aren't any of these. Kerguelen Island has no airport. Heard Island ditto. The Possession Islands, much further west.. the same.

Port Louis and Port Denis do but are east of Madagascar and 6 hours flying in nil wind from the top of Sumatra so probably just out of range and it is a fairly populated islands.

Apart from that, there are no runways, small or otherwise in the far southern Indian Ocean.

What about Cocos (keeling) island. There is a large runway on the wester most island. Or Chirstmas Island, there is a large runway and small airport on the north estern tip of the island, and the island looks desolate besides the the occasional navy ship in the harbor to the west of the island.

 

[TWCobra]

None of those are in the far Southern Indian Ocean.

 

[TWCobra]

What about Cocos (keeling) island. There is a large runway on the wester most island. Or Chirstmas Island, there is a large runway and small airport on the north estern tip of the island, and the island looks desolate besides the the occasional navy ship in the harbor to the west of the island.

Christmas Island isn't desolate. It is a tourist destination as well as a processing centre for boat people attempting to reach Australia.

 

[Pete Tar]

The recent 'reports' are rumours, not from official sources, and likely to be misleading - he could have just been making space on a limited hard drive. It seems like they're recycling the earlier suspicions just for interest, so may be not worth puzzling over too much without further detail or reason to.

 

[WeedWhacker]

The telegraph and other sites are reporting that the recovered flight simulator had a deleted flight path that the Captain practiced...

As I've pointed out to others (was it in this thread?) a home computer "simulator" is fun, but otherwise worthless when compared to a real, multi-million dollar Level D full-motion sim. One thing it can provide is allowing a pilot to hone instrument flying skills...but at that level of experience (the Captain's level) it should be superfluous. I mean, if his aviator skills were weak, then I'd think he'd have had much trouble in all of his recurrent training check-rides.

Also, in RE: his home computer "sim", we don't "practice" a "flight path". And, the FMC (Flight Management Conputer) on the airplane contains a vast database that can be accessed, and of course all pilots have aviation charts for coverage of the region they operate in. There is a trend towards the "EFB" now (Electronic Flight Bag) where most of your old paper charts are gone, instead you have an iPad or tablet computer.

However, in those instances then there will be a flight bag installed on the airplane, as back-up, with a huge number of paper charts...more than a pilot typically needs to operate on their normal scheduled routes. In any case, it is simple for any experienced pilot to merely plot any course they wish, with so many tools at their disposal. No need for "practice".

 

[ConspiracyAtheist]

Speaking of missing planes...http://allafrica.com/stories/201406250004.html

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

There aren't any of these. Kerguelen Island has no airport. Heard Island ditto. The Possession Islands, much further west.. the same.

Port Louis and Port Denis do but are east of Madagascar and 6 hours flying in nil wind from the top of Sumatra so probably just out of range and it is a fairly populated islands.

Apart from that, there are no runways, small or otherwise in the far southern Indian Ocean.

Rodrigues...?

 

[Jason]

Christmas Island isn't desolate. It is a tourist destination as well as a processing centre for boat people attempting to reach Australia.

Sorry, I saw both of them on Google Earth. When you zoom in you don't see any cars or planes in the survey, besides a few naval ships in the harbor to the west

 

[Jason]

As I've pointed out to others (was it in this thread?) a home computer "simulator" is fun, but otherwise worthless when compared to a real, multi-million dollar Level D full-motion sim. One thing it can provide is allowing a pilot to hone instrument flying skills...but at that level of experience (the Captain's level) it should be superfluous. I mean, if his aviator skills were weak, then I'd think he'd have had much trouble in all of his recurrent training check-rides.

Also, in RE: his home computer "sim", we don't "practice" a "flight path". And, the FMC (Flight Management Conputer) on the airplane contains a vast database that can be accessed, and of course all pilots have aviation charts for coverage of the region they operate in. There is a trend towards the "EFB" now (Electronic Flight Bag) where most of your old paper charts are gone, instead you have an iPad or tablet computer.

However, in those instances then there will be a flight bag installed on the airplane, as back-up, with a huge number of paper charts...more than a pilot typically needs to operate on their normal scheduled routes. In any case, it is simple for any experienced pilot to merely plot any course they wish, with so many tools at their disposal. No need for "practice".

That's just it TJ, its been rubbing me the wrong way since this story broke, about him having a simulator and all. It would've been nice to know some additional facts which might help the investigation or reporters. When did he buy the simulator should've been the most important question? If he's owned it for a decade then its quite obvious he bought it when he was learning still and trying to progress his career. So he could fly the bigger planes so to speak. But if he bought it recently, what would that say. A pilot with all that experience flying one of the largest jets there are, it would be a waste of his time on his days off as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

None of those are in the far Southern Indian Ocean.

yupp, but I don't know why it has to be far on the South

all of their search areas in I. Ocean are based on assumption that plane went constant speed & constant direction, those two being only variables they take into account

now I don't say it didn't happen because we can't know(now that's something everybody will agree about), but assigning it a 100% probability when there is a huge chance something happened in-flight (based on previous flight path if not anything else) is beyond me

However, in those instances then there will be a flight bag installed on the airplane, as back-up, with a huge number of paper charts...more than a pilot typically needs to operate on their normal scheduled routes. In any case, it is simple for any experienced pilot to merely plot any course they wish, with so many tools at their disposal. No need for "practice".

in a regular situation it is, but if you plan to do something extraordinary you must have a back-up plan and prepare if you want to have better chances, you can't fiddle with ipads bags and stuff if your colleague is scared to death and pulls his yoke towards opposite direction

 

[Mick West]

Speaking of missing planes...http://allafrica.com/stories/201406250004.html

Not what it seems. See:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/missing-african-plane-is-a-small-prop-plane-not-a-boeing-737.3866/

 

[Jason]

The recent 'reports' are rumours, not from official sources, and likely to be misleading - he could have just been making space on a limited hard drive. It seems like they're recycling the earlier suspicions just for interest, so may be not worth puzzling over too much without further detail or reason to.

Honestly though Pete, what reports haven't been rumors in this investigation. Not only has the public viewed speculation as a possibility, so have the investigators. Why is it when ivestigators get a lead, it's called a lead, but when the public gets information (from leads or investigators) it's called speculation. Looking at this investigation with a fresh set of eyes makes you feel embarrassed for the investigators for how this whole thing was handled, and awful for the families who lost loved ones. There are still so many questions to be answered, and colossal mistakes that were made that cost nations millions of dollars and lost time in the search and rescue (like the discovery of the pings, and later announcement by the AU PM). Why is over an hour of data missing from Inmarsat, coincidentally at the time it turned back and luckily while it was seen by radar...sarcasm.... Why did a PM of a country announce they discovered the pinging from the FR of MH370, when anyone with half a brain in that field would've instantly knew that the pings weren't the CORRECT frequency. So how does that even happen, in such a way that every ship, manpower, and dollar is spent searching the entirely wrong area based on pings that could never have come from anything but a marine mammal or ship. Duh, and yet no one is held accountable, instead Inmarsat releases it data. Then there's the missing or redacted hour.

I mean come one, if anyone of us had a family member on this plane we would be up in arms with the way this investigation has been handled. Don't say otherwise, please.

Then there's the flight simulator. When did he buy it, why was it given to the FBI instead of the CHinese Government who are just as capable of rescuing deleted information from a hard drive. In fact anyone with computer skills and the hardware/software can rescue deleted information, so why didn't the Malaysian government or Australian government request this since they are more involved in the investigation, why ship it off to the US...

 

[ConspiracyAtheist]

Not what it seems. See:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/missing-african-plane-is-a-small-prop-plane-not-a-boeing-737.3866/

I mean...the first line of the story reads "A four-seater plane..." I dont think anybody would have thought this was a big passenger plane

 

[Mick West]

I mean...the first line of the story reads "A four-seater plane..." I dont think anybody would have thought this was a big passenger plane

You are assuming people actually read the text

 

[Jason]

I mean...the first line of the story reads "A four-seater plane..." I dont think anybody would have thought this was a big passenger plane

I'll admit, I read the 4 seater part of the headline but my eyes were immediately drawn to the large commerical plane which prompted me to read the article instead of just passing it over

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

(SIO = Southern Indian Ocean)

Q. What interesting property do the following three paths all share?

1. The great circle connecting IGREX to either Diego Garcia or Rodriguez (see this thread)
2. The narrow region containing the acoustic event reported by Curtin U. (see "Noise record" thread)
3. The path of a large plane as reported by multiple Maldives eyewitnesses (see "Clone" thread)

A. They all pass through the exact same point - a few minutes' flight time ENE of DG.

I upload an image of the only map I could find which explicitly plotted the eyewitness path. The green line is path 3 above; the red line pointing at DG is a reaonable proxy for path 1; extend it, and you cross the green line at the same point the Curtin U region (path 2 above, headed almost directly NW<->SE) reaches its thickest (confirmed "most likely") point.

They intersect at different times - #3 (if cruising speed) at around 6:40 MYT, #2 at around 8:40 MYT, and #1 at around 9:40 MYT - but I do find this intersection of paths to be a very curious coincidence.

Speculation: the acoustic event could have occurred at the end of a short trip from DG to [intersection point], roughly two hours after what could have been a safe landing at DG. And the plane headed SSE (a heading I've always found incredibly curious) from Kuda Huvadhoo might have been simply converging on this site, for whatever reason (from reactive investigation to predetermined rendezvous).


Q. What interesting property do the following four things all share?

1. The Inmarsat data "pointing us to" an arc in SIO
2. The fuel analysis "pointing us to" a point on this arc (later withdrawn)
3. The acoustic pings "keeping us at" this point on the arc (later withdrawn)
4. All evidence found on the pilot's hard drive

A. Agents of the US government were allowed into the chain of evidence.

Food for thought.

 

[Jason]

A. Agents of the US government were allowed into the chain of evidence.

And honestly, who thought that once this was sent to the US for examination, that any evidence would've been retrieved. Instead of sharing the evidence, we get a spokesperson who talks to the press that they didn't find anything on the hard drive. Why not share what was found on the hard drive with investigators, and let them comment on the hard drive.

 

[jonnyH]

Instead of sharing the evidence, we get a spokesperson who talks to the press that they didn't find anything on the hard drive. Why not share what was found on the hard drive with investigators, and let them comment on the hard drive.

I doubt it is standard procedure to publish the full contents of a hard drive seized as part of any investigation. Whilst you might expect some indication from authorities if they had discovered something relevant, in the event that they didn't what is the spokesperson to say other than "we didn't find anything"?

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

(SIO = Southern Indian Ocean)

Q. What interesting property do the following three paths all share?

1. The great circle connecting IGREX to either Diego Garcia or Rodriguez (see this thread)
2. The narrow region containing the acoustic event reported by Curtin U. (see "Noise record" thread)
3. The path of a large plane as reported by multiple Maldives eyewitnesses (see "Clone" thread)

A. They all pass through the exact same point - a few minutes' flight time ENE of DG.

that doesn't correspond with Inmarsat pings and if pilot/hijacker had intention to go around Indonesia he wouldn't have to go that far

basically any theory that disproves Inmarsat delves into a huge conspiracy where a missing plane would be the least of a problem...

 

[Jason]

that doesn't correspond with Inmarsat pings and if pilot/hijacker had intention to go around Indonesia he wouldn't have to go that far

basically any theory that disproves Inmarsat delves into a huge conspiracy where a missing plane would be the least of a problem...

Why would it be a huge conspiracy though? Why must we always translate a CT into there being to many moving parts, and too many people have to be involved. According to those standards there could never ever be a CT, or a secret at the highest level, and well we know this to be untrue.

 

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

any theory that disproves Inmarsat delves into a huge conspiracy where a missing plane would be the least of a problem...

On April 9, after Aussie PM Abbott expressed supreme confidence in the position of MH370's FDR, I suspect you'd have felt that "any theory that disproves [the fuel analysis leading the search to 20s, or the acoustic pings keeping it there] delves into a huge conspiracy" - yet here we are, hundreds of miles from the then-official theory.

Trust me, Stevan: I am not "conspiracy-inclined" - I am "coincidence-averse". There is a big difference.

And the staggering coincidences seem to pile up higher and higher with each passing day. Something smells.

 

[Landru]

On April 9, after Aussie PM Abbott expressed supreme confidence in the position of MH370's FDR, I suspect you'd have felt that "any theory that disproves [the fuel analysis leading the search to 20s, or the acoustic pings keeping it there] delves into a huge conspiracy" - yet here we are, hundreds of miles from the then-official theory.

Trust me, Stevan: I am not "conspiracy-inclined" - I am "coincidence-averse". There is a big difference.

And the staggering coincidences seem to pile up higher and higher with each passing day. Something smells.

I'm pro evidence. So far I haven't seen any to suggest a conspiracy.

 

[jonnyH]

Why must we always translate a CT into there being to many moving parts, and too many people have to be involved. According to those standards there could never ever be a CT, or a secret at the highest level, and well we know this to be untrue.

If I could think of an example of an actual conspiracy involving a huge number of people it would suggest that the conspiracy had been uncovered, probably because there are too many moving parts, too many people who know too much and eventually the truth gets out.