Flight MH17 News

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Mick West

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Ok, some more: According to him, there was "a massive and explosive loss of air pressure."

Yes, that's the same thing as ""massive explosive decompression." - Again, this is most likely a missile. However massive explosive decompression is consistent with:
None of those seem likely. However one should not jump entirely to conclusions - just note what seems most likely.
 

David Coulter

Senior Member.
This is not really news but it might be of interest to members here in general. Apparently the producers (Storm Clouds Gathering) are big into conspiracies from the West, but don't seem to be interested in questioning anything from Russia (other than to say that both sides spread mis-information at the beginning to make it sound like the video is a fair analysis). I found the comments as interesting as the video....

 

Jason

Senior Member
This Vladamir Putin character really must have a brass set of .... because while the world is watching, and investigators are trying to "investigate" he decided the best course of action would be to lob some missiles and mortars over into Ukraine and possibly shoot down a military aircraft. How does Putin get away with this stuff. To the point where the Dutch and Malaysians were actually considering sending armed guards to the region to secure the site, but thought it was too risky.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/27/us-ukraine-crisis-crashsite-idUSKBN0FW0KY20140727
 

Chew

Senior Member.
"a pound or so of ball bearings"?

The smallest Buk has a 62 kg warhead but almost all anti-aircraft warheads are 1 part high explosives and 2 parts metal casing by weight. If it broke into .5 cm cubes that warhead has enough metal to make ~42,000 cubes.
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
"a pound or so of ball bearings"?

The smallest Buk has a 62 kg warhead but almost all anti-aircraft warheads are 1 part high explosives and 2 parts metal casing by weight. If it broke into .5 cm cubes that warhead has enough metal to make ~42,000 cubes.
Not sure about Russian weapons. But typically the weight of a bomb or missile is the amount of high explosives used and doesn't take into account the weight of the casing. A 500lbs bomb weighs more than 500lbs
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
"a pound or so of ball bearings"?

The smallest Buk has a 62 kg warhead but almost all anti-aircraft warheads are 1 part high explosives and 2 parts metal casing by weight. If it broke into .5 cm cubes that warhead has enough metal to make ~42,000 cubes.

"Charge to Metal Ratio" (C/M, or CMR) is the measure. You are quoting 0.5, the larger and older Nike AA missile is 1.25, but 30,000 fragements.
http://ed-thelen.org/mono-6.html
 

Chew

Senior Member.
Not sure about Russian weapons. But typically the weight of a bomb or missile is the amount of high explosives used and doesn't take into account the weight of the casing. A 500lbs bomb weighs more than 500lbs

You mean like this 500 lbs bomb that weighs 500 lbs but only contains 192 lbs of high explosive?

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mark_82_bomb

Or the Strela 2 with a 1.15 kg warhead, of which only 370 grams is HE?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strela_2
 

MikeC

Closed Account
Not sure about Russian weapons. But typically the weight of a bomb or missile is the amount of high explosives used and doesn't take into account the weight of the casing. A 500lbs bomb weighs more than 500lbs

That's not true for bombs - a 500 lb bomb DOES weigh 500 lbs - of which less than 500 lbs is explosives - that is why some bombs are "MC "- medium capacity or "HC" - high capacity - referring to how thick the walls are so how much explosives they can carry.

Eg the current US Mk 82 500lb bomb:

I am not sure what the normal nomenclature is for missile warheads - whether it includes eth fragmentation case or not - but it would not surprise me if it did - the explosives + fragmentation case are probably a unitary assembly so all counted together as "the warhead".
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
You mean like this 500 lbs bomb that weighs 500 lbs but only contains 192 lbs of high explosive?

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mark_82_bomb

Or the Strela 2 with a 1.15 kg warhead, of which only 370 grams is HE?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strela_2

That's not true for bombs - a 500 lb bomb DOES weigh 500 lbs - of which less than 500 lbs is explosives - that is why some bombs are "MC "- medium capacity or "HC" - high capacity - referring to how thick the walls are so how much explosives they can carry.

Eg the current US Mk 82 500lb bomb:

I am not sure what the normal nomenclature is for missile warheads - whether it includes eth fragmentation case or not - but it would not surprise me if it did - the explosives + fragmentation case are probably a unitary assembly so all counted together as "the warhead".
I stand corrected then, must be confused with something else.
 

Qualiall

Member
Now the Ukrainian National Security is claiming that the rebels are placing land mines "around" the site to prevent international observers from safely doing their work. Propaganda?

Pro-Russian rebels have booby-trapped the MH17 crash site with landmines, according to Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, making it impossible for international investigators to access the scene of the crash.
Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko said the rebels were digging in for battle near the crash site.
“‘They have brought a large number of heavy artillery there and mined approaches to this area. This makes it impossible for the international experts trying to start work to establish the reasons behind the Boeing 777 crash.’

MH17 crash site booby-trapped with landmines
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
Possibly - I don't feel good about taking their word for things without further evidence, as the bias is obvious.
And this puts their motivations in a slightly unsavoury light -
To the rebels though the crash site is a major strategic resource, so it's pretty plausible.
 

Jason

Senior Member

Jason

Senior Member
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/5619...uk-missile-malaysia-airlines.htm#.U-GWefRDuSo
MH17 Update: New Witness Identified; Owner of the Truck that Carried the BUK Missile that Shot Down Malaysian Airlines Provides Evidence
 
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Pete Tar

Senior Member.
It's very speculative. However it provides a response to questions about the strange route of the BUK, which was questioned here...
Their explanation.
 

KAT

Active Member
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/5619...uk-missile-malaysia-airlines.htm#.U-GWefRDuSo
MH17 Update: New Witness Identified; Owner of the Truck that Carried the BUK Missile that Shot Down Malaysian Airlines Provides Evidence

Poor guy apparently had the only lowloader around, when they suddenly needed one for moving around caterpillar track things. Some of the images of this ubiquitous truck show it carrying various non-BUK equipment.

I hate it when they never ask what days did this happen, what did they look like, how many, were they local guys you knew or strangers etc etc.

This story mostly tells me they know it's silly to come up with yet another new theory, so they're just backing up reviving an older one. Knowing who owned the truck doesn't help date or locate the images.

YAWN they need to find a fresh version.
 

KAT

Active Member
That is Alexander Borodai, the Prime Minister. He was the one in a light blue Tshirt and dark blue suit jacket, at the MH17 blackbox handover. They must have listened to him, as they brought him the boxes, but he looked more like a figure head, a spokesman the Russians could trust, certainly not a leader of rebellion. If the separatists lose, Russians found among them won't do well.

OKAY Borodai resigned August 7 and is back in Moscow apparently. He handed over to Alexander Zakharchenko as "prime minister" in Donetsk. A day or two later the chief in Luhansk, Valery Bolotov, said he was temporarily handing over to his defence minister, Igor Plotnitskiy. Bolotov was apparently wounded in fighting in May and is not fully recovered, so feels he can't do his job right.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/08/14/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/
.
Also resigned is the bad guy Strelkov. Igor Girkin his real name. Another Russian.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-...strelkov-resigns-as-separatist-leader/5672274

Well it's all over soon then. The Russians are leaving the sinking ship. But there's going to be trouble for years in that area. I don't see the Government making great efforts to rebuild; that area was in direst poverty from being neglected already, one cause of the rebellion in the first place.

The Cossack agent provocateur Nikolai Kozitsyn, whose men most likely pulled the trigger on MH17 has not resigned, more's the pity.
 
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Sgt.Tinfoil

Member
Hang on,another one resigned more recently. One who actually fought, got wounded a few months ago. see if I can find it again.
Yes Igor "Strelkov" Girkin. Yesterday he was reported first reported been wounded seriously then he was reported dead. The separatists has been denying these allegations. Strelkov is one of the main characters of whole conflict and he has been reported to be killed many times previously by the media. He is/was one of the main military commanders in Donetsk republic.

Actually this guy is the "rebel commander" who has been reported to be the one boasting about downing the cargo plane which turn out to be MH17. Some media says the boasting happened in facebook some say in twitter. He himself have said that only internet medias where he writes is icorpus.ru and vk.com which is Russian alternative to facebook(he apparently did before the war posts lot's of stuff in military reeanctment forum which seems to be his hobby so there are claims that sometimes posts there too). There used to be two fake propaganda pages ikorpus.ru(rebels use icorpus.ru domain) and www.vk.com/ikorpus (www.vk.com/icorpus is rebel channel) which claimed to be separatists channels which should not be trusted. Those are part of information warfare and probably made by some (pro-)Ukrainian propaganda forces. He also commented about the twitter account where the claim of shooting down the cargo plane came in his name that he did not know who is using that and if the media wants to follow him read the icorpus.ru or vk.com the other places should not be trusted as his.

If you remember few weeks ago of the executions of looters in Donetsk he was the guy who gave the order for that. There is also an order from him to how to treat prisoners of war which goes something like this
Persons who voluntarily laid down their arms and surrendered to the forces of militia captured the DNI, and have not committed serious crimes during the fighting on the territory of New Russia can:
• Go back to their families in Ukraine;
• Join the ranks of the militia DNR;
• Be sent to the territory of Russia as a time-internee (Option: refugee).
http://icorpus.ru/prikaz-i-i-strelkova/

There are lots of claims of he being both ex-GRU and ex-FSB agent who resigned this year from both of those agencies.

As a side note I have been monitoring this whole war pretty intensively last months or so and also the Strelkovs updates about the situation. He seems to be really competent military leader and his communications has been IMHO always balanced and most truthfull things about current situation. He has been debunking lots misinformation about both sides about military situation in East-Ukraine and publishing correct adjustments to situation. I think this has lead him to be somewhat in disfavor for separatist leadership because he has been also debunking lot's of their propaganda and rumours of great victories and also telling bluntly what situation is what they are doing wrong. Personally I kinda like the guy there is no arguing of that.
 

KAT

Active Member
Some media says the boasting happened in facebook some say in twitter. He himself have said that only internet medias where he writes is icorpus.ru and vk.com which is Russian alternative to facebook(

Yeah icorpus is like Facebook and vk is their Twitter, the media have just been using the English equivalents. It WAS him boasting. It was illustrated with 2 videos, those fake ones that turned out to be an Antonov, a day or two earlier. I am now trying to track down earlier shootdowns, because I think the very first intercepted "we shot one down" call related to an earlier one, too, NOT to MH17.

There are lots of claims of he being both ex-GRU and ex-FSB agent who resigned this year from both of those agencies.
They'd have to say that, to distance themselves from him. Those organisations are a bit like Hotel California, you can check out but never leave, because they're the kind of job where the bosses always have something on you.

Personally I kinda like the guy there is no arguing of that.
I wouldn't go that far. But he's a fighter, not a politician, so that's in his favour, at least as far as his stories go. Lot more experience than the real separatists, so they may have learned something from him.
It's Kozitsyn I'd most like to see out of there. He and his group were always where the most trouble was, including Maidan. And he gave the orders on the OSCE 4 that got held hostage for a few days. If anyone is taking direct orders from Moscow, it is him. Cossacks from both sides of the border stick together and are traditional fighters, but they've always fought on the side of the powers that be, back to Imperial times. Making themselves useful as a way to buy not being discriminated against.

Actually it may have been his people that shot down MH17. He's the one who said they must have been spies otherwise what would they be doing there.
 

Sgt.Tinfoil

Member
Yeah icorpus is like Facebook
No it is not. icorpus.ru is normal webpage or to be precise a blog running Worpress with theme dt-the7.

vk is their Twitter,
No it is not. vk.com is a facebook clone not a twitter clone.

the media have just been using the English equivalents.
This is just bad journalism

It WAS him boasting
Ok. Any proof that it was HIM and exactly what (internet)media?

It was illustrated with 2 videos
What videos? Care to share link?

They'd have to say that, to distance themselves from him. Those organisations are a bit like Hotel California, you can check out but never leave, because they're the kind of job where the bosses always have something on you.
My only problem what this claim is why would somebody be working same time with two different agencies? Also the primary source of this claim would be really nice to know. And yes and I can imagine that world of intelligence or spying can be really shady business and the membership denied by the agencies.

But he's a fighter, not a politician,
Exactly this is what I really like the guy.

Actually it may have been his people that shot down MH17.
He has denied this. At 5:10 he is asked did he shoot down the passenger plane
He also claims here that he used to be reservist in Ukrainian army air defence which kinda is shady because some sources claim him to Russian citizen. Also in the end of the video same question is asked and he says that he does not know anything else that the plane was shot down and he did not give an order for that and his troops under him did not do it.
 

KAT

Active Member
that he does not know anything else that the plane was shot down and he did not give an order for that and his troops under him did not do it

There's 5 "sides" there at least. Odd he'd be boasting about it if it wasn't his guys, but...I did suggest last week they would see/hear about a plane go down and assume they'd shot it, because (a) only their enemy had planes to their knowledge and (b) they were always shooting them down. But I tend to believe it wasn't his guys. Donetsk and Luhansk had separate leadership, loosely aligned; some groups in each were more autonomous or less obedient than others; some are local Cossacks, some are Russian Cossacks, some likely other Russian helpers (official or mercenary) and some civilians recently signed up. Left hand would not know what right hand was doing,for sure.

He's been widely touted as being Russian, and was photographed in action in Crimea too. I can't prove he is.
working same time with two different agencies?
Back in Russia you mean? seconded? promoted sideways? transferred? one agency asks the other "do you have someone suitable for this job....?"
 

Jason

Senior Member
Just some "general news" about the impact that the shoot-down of MH17 (combined with the still un-explained loss of MH370) has affected the airline:

Malaysia Airlines is a Flying Ghost Town
I'm still a little shocked that there haven't been a great deal of CT"s that dealt with this aspect of the aftermath of Malaysian Airlines. That company or government ran company is doomed. I don't ever see them getting beyond this. The sad part in all of this besides the loss of life and a company on the verge of going bankrupt is terrorist who want to harm American interest or it's allies know that if you shoot down 2 flights in the same company it will reek havoc on a company and possibly close it's doors.
 
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qed

Senior Member
channel news asia
 

qed

Senior Member
the guardian
 

Jason

Senior Member
Who has shot down the aircraft MH17 on July 17? For information that can prove who is behind the crime, the whistleblowers entitled to the units awarded reward of 30 million dollars.
http://www.wifka.de/wer-hat-mh17-ab...r-belohnung-fuer-hinweise-auf-die-taeter.html
So they are trying to encourage people to come forward an name who was responsible for firing the buk missile. Highly unlikely in a situation as grand as this. Who ever fired that missile is long gone
 

Rob

Member
The BUK photographed in Donetsk by ParisMatch on July 17, has been positively linked, by bellingcat.com, to a BUK on a trailer on the 23rd of June on the motorway from Staryy Oskol (Russia) :

https://bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-...7-inside-russia-controlled-by-russian-troops/

The BUK, with the number 3'2 on its side (may be 312), appears as part of a convoy with trucks that have area code “50” on their registration plates, which indicates that they belong to the Moscovskiy Voenniy Okrug (MVO) or the Moscow Military District linked to the 53rd BUK brigade from Kursk.

bellingcat proceeds : "Moreover, it also appears the 53rd “Buk” brigade not only uses the “50” area code on their registration plates, but their troops have uploaded pictures of some of the same vehicles that can been seen in the videos taken around Staryy Oskol."

Quite incriminating, and this was posted September 8 by bellingcat. Before somebody offered $ 30 million to silence witnesses with evidence...
 

KAT

Active Member
Guys that proves nothing. Bellingcat's BUK was last seen inside Russian in JUNE and never in Ukraine. Several others have been seen all over the place, in fact taken on an obvious scenic tour to make sure it/they got seen all over by heaps of people. On a very conspicuous unique vehicle. To make double sure, the owner of it was located and testified the rebels had stolen it from him. So they all said. Nobody bothered to ask him who, when, what they looked like, what their names were, how many of them etc or anything to identify them. Furthermore this interview was by a website from a virulently anti-Russian country which has done no other "investigative reporting" from Ukraine all year.

Belllingcat is not exactly neutral, either, but at least they put a lot of work into it, and have come up with usable geo-locations in the past.

NONE of this says who had control of and/or pushed the button on whatever shot down that plane. THAT is what the $30 million is being offered for, not photoshopped web images of unknown provenance they can google for themselves.
 

Ray Von Geezer

Senior Member.
Guys that proves nothing. Bellingcat's BUK was last seen inside Russian in JUNE and never in Ukraine. Several others have been seen all over the place, in fact taken on an obvious scenic tour to make sure it/they got seen all over by heaps of people. On a very conspicuous unique vehicle. To make double sure, the owner of it was located and testified the rebels had stolen it from him. So they all said. Nobody bothered to ask him who, when, what they looked like, what their names were, how many of them etc or anything to identify them. Furthermore this interview was by a website from a virulently anti-Russian country which has done no other "investigative reporting" from Ukraine all year.

Belllingcat is not exactly neutral, either, but at least they put a lot of work into it, and have come up with usable geo-locations in the past.

NONE of this says who had control of and/or pushed the button on whatever shot down that plane. THAT is what the $30 million is being offered for, not photoshopped web images of unknown provenance they can google for themselves.
The evidence presented of the matching markings on the Buk is interesting though, in comparison with the Buks filmed in convoy within Russia earlier.

Who are you saying took the Buk(s) on a "scenic tour"? I'll admit I don't know much about the capabilities of the pro-Russians, but is it likely that the Ukrainian's would be able to drive a convoy of military vehicles through separatist held territory unimpeded?

I don't think the truck was particularly conspicuous in itself, and it was unique only in that the owner reportedly claimed it was the only Volvo with his company's markings on it. As to "when", in the interview he said that his depot was commandeered on the 8th July. The lack of names, descriptions or numbers in the interview doesn't seem that significant. When a group has taken some action that's how people tend to label them - "the soldiers came and took my son", "the rebels set fire to our house", and we don't even know if he was there when it happened.

Which images have been Photoshopped?

Ray Von
 

KAT

Active Member
but is it likely that the Ukrainian's would be able to drive a convoy of military vehicles through separatist held territory unimpeded?

HAHA. That is how separatists got a good % of the vehicles THEY have.

Seriously, all former Iron Curtain countries, USSR territories and various other countries all used identical Soviet weapons until well after the breakup of the USSR. Most were made in Russia or Ukraine, which continued to repair and modernism them for various clients until this war started. Many NATO countries still have Soviet era weaponry in use, and as each upgrades (often with USA castoffs) they pass their leftovers to the next poorer country (eg in 2004 Germany sold 22 former East German MIGs to Poland for 1 euro each). Upgrades to things like BUKs might be better rocketry, but from the same launchers.

So, every BUK for 1000s of miles around is going to look much the same. Proves nothing. Odd only one number was overpainted on the supposedly "312" one (and if you look at the kerning, that is NOT a "!"). Even 2 on the same white Volvo flatbed does not mean it's the same one, after all that truck was seen carrying various other vehicles too. Some of the videos have been geo-located but there is no firm DATE for any of them.

"the soldiers came and took my son", "the rebels set fire to our house", and we don't even know if he was there when it happened.
Precisely. The less detail he gives, the less authentic his description is. "The soldiers" or "the rebels" is clearcut in places there is only one or the other. In Ukraine there is both, and they LOOK THE SAME, same uniforms, same equipment, same language. In fact there's a third group, private (neo Nazi) oligarch armies which play both sides (and also look the same). "Who" someone is depends entirely on what they say; you can't tell by looking if they don't have their flag with them (and there have been documented cases of showing someone else's flag to set up ambushes).

None of the BUK videos have been photoshopped. Most of the supposed satellite "proofs" of Russian equipment seem faked, for so many reasons it's not worth even going into detail on them.
 
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Ray Von Geezer

Senior Member.
HAHA. That is how separatists got a good % of the vehicles THEY have.
So are you're saying it's not likely?

Seriously, all former Iron Curtain countries, USSR territories and various other countries all used identical Soviet weapons until well after the breakup of the USSR. Most were made in Russia or Ukraine, which continued to repair and modernism them for various clients until this war started. Many NATO countries still have Soviet era weaponry in use, and as each upgrades (often with USA castoffs) they pass their leftovers to the next poorer country (eg in 2004 Germany sold 22 former East German MIGs to Poland for 1 euro each). Upgrades to things like BUKs might be better rocketry, but from the same launchers.

So, every BUK for 1000s of miles around is going to look much the same. Proves nothing. Odd only one number was overpainted on the supposedly "312" one (and if you look at the kerning, that is NOT a "!"). Even 2 on the same white Volvo flatbed does not mean it's the same one, after all that truck was seen carrying various other vehicles too.
Surely if both sides are using the same equipment and it's hard to distinguish visually between either side, they'd be more diligent when it came to identifying just who was travelling through "their" territory, using checkpoints and spot checks?

I'm really not convinced by your contention that someone other than the separatists could have commandeered that truck and used it for several weeks to freely transport military equipment through separatist territory. I don't see how the separatists could be so slack and still remain an effective force against the Ukrainian military.

Some of the videos have been geo-located but there is no firm DATE for any of them.
I'm sure some videos had reliable dates? Doesn't the video from Zuhares (spelling?) which I think was posted here have a time stamp from a few hours before MH17 went down (plus GPS coordinates)?

Precisely. The less detail he gives, the less authentic his description is. "The soldiers" or "the rebels" is clearcut in places there is only one or the other. In Ukraine there is both, and they LOOK THE SAME, same uniforms, same equipment, same language. In fact there's a third group, private (neo Nazi) oligarch armies which play both sides (and also look the same). "Who" someone is depends entirely on what they say; you can't tell by looking if they don't have their flag with them (and there have been documented cases of showing someone else's flag to set up ambushes).
That's not what I meant, I don't agree that less detail means his account of his understanding of the situation is necessarily less reliable. Remember - he was being interviewed by the press over the telephone, not questioned by the authorities, and I doubt a description would have been of use to anyone outside the immediate area, certainly not to the readership of a French magazine. In fact, if what you say about them looking, dressing and sounding the same is correct then I'm a little puzzled by the import you placed on having his description of who did it.

Ray Von
 

Mick West

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