And the radio communications? Why did the plane not respond to requests to communicate? You can't answer that question with any of your graphs and 3D models nor can you explain. How experienced pilots not the investigators couldn't see difference between planes that take off every hour from Santiago and a UFO
This was one of the first flights that the crew was making with their brand new Wescam 15HDi. You can tell they're inexperienced because they have not done the correct flight maneuvers to align the camera INS. If they're at 4000+ft plus, they should have done it by now. They might have years of flight experience, but they have only hours of thermal camera experience on this aircraft.
If they HAD aligned the system, then you could get some more information from the pointing. But they didnt. So, the AZ and EL angles on the overlay are just the angle relative to the aircraft mount frame. You cant make many deductions about the relative altitude of the target because of this. When aircraft move, they dont fly level.
The GPS SHOULD have accurate time, but its possible to be inaccurate by small amounts. For instance, the terrain target altitude indication of '-489' is very unusual. It indicates the map system that was attached wasnt sending 100% correct messages. And if they used the map system to set the UTC offset(which is possible) they might not have done it correctly as well.
Tom is generally correct in his FOV analysis. With the focus set the infinity, it adds some randomness into the reading. The focus changes the FOV width slightly, and there is a lot of 'infinity' in this model of lens where you can still adjust the image. So, a few % off there.
The radio coms? Pilots have a lot to do. Why would they think a call, on a generic frequency, to the wrong location was for them? The thermal-camera inexperienced Navy pilots misjudged the distance. They hadnt aligned the camera to get an accurate bearing. They were 'expecting' a result on radar so were surprised when they didnt see it, and didnt think to look further.
Whats left to explain?