Can you identify this?

[Peter Godman]

Unfortunately the flashing/flaring isn't included in the predictions, I assume they're too random. So the magnitudes in the table are only the baseline values, so to speak. They indicate the brightness of the satellite if it weren't flashing. The flashes themselves could be much brighter.

I see. Thanks for the insight.

Assuming this is GLOBALSTAR M036, do you know why its signature looks more like a strobe (camera flash) than a flare, most satellites I see look like this

 

[Easy Muffin]

The pattern can change between sats. The underlying effect for these flashes is that the satellite reflects varying amounts of sunlight to the observer, usually because it has lost its orbital stabilisation and is now rotating about one or more of its axes (which is to say, it's tumbling uncontrollably). Sunlight hits a more reflective part -> a short bright flare may be seen. Satellite rotates at X revolutions per minute -> more reflective part directs sunlight to the observer X times per minute -> observer sees X flares per minute (well it's not quite as simple because the geometry is constantly changing as the satellite moves along in its orbit but I guess it's close enough).

The Iridium flares you linked were rather the exception btw. They remained in a controlled attitude but they were equipped with large polished antennas that were essentially massive mirrors. They could be predicted, too. A -8 flare would put on a hell of show. The brightest ones you could even spot during the day. Sadly they were taken out of service and replaced with a new generation sporting smaller antennas which put an end to it.

Here's another video. This is Globalstar M036 as observed from Greece only three months ago. The video is quite choppy but it seems to flare in a similar fashion to the object in your video.

 

[Peter Godman]

X

thanks Easy, you have provided much needed clarity

and thanks to all contributors at this thread for your assistance

btw here's a pic of a ufo I snapped just the other day ; )

 

[FatPhil]

The pattern can change between sats. The underlying effect for these flashes is that the satellite reflects varying amounts of sunlight to the observer, usually because it has lost its orbital stabilisation and is now rotating about one or more of its axes (which is to say, it's tumbling uncontrollably). Sunlight hits a more reflective part -> a short bright flare may be seen. Satellite rotates at X revolutions per minute -> more reflective part directs sunlight to the observer X times per minute -> observer sees X flares per minute (well it's not quite as simple because the geometry is constantly changing as the satellite moves along in its orbit but I guess it's close enough).

The Iridium flares you linked were rather the exception btw. They remained in a controlled attitude but they were equipped with large polished antennas that were essentially massive mirrors. They could be predicted, too. A -8 flare would put on a hell of show. The brightest ones you could even spot during the day. Sadly they were taken out of service and replaced with a new generation sporting smaller antennas which put an end to it.

Here's another video. This is Globalstar M036 as observed from Greece only three months ago. The video is quite choppy but it seems to flare in a similar fashion to the object in your video.

It's important to note that "tumbling uncontrollably" doesn't mean it's chaotic, it can be a perfectly predictable periodic rotation. (Of couse, the Dzhanibekov effect exists, but that's still periods of near stability interrupted by flips.)

And yes, Iridium was definitely visible during daylight, I've seen it myself.

(And, finally, will someone please implemement a median-of-9 filter for that telescope's imaging software!)

 

[john.phil]

This is the identification of the stars in the field of view:

This is NORAD 25623 approaching AF Col (HIP 29263) at 21:13:02 local time on 13 April 2024:

It reaches a position close to the last observed flash at 21:14:14, about 1 minute and 12 seconds after approaching AF Col. In the footage, the first flash is seen at 21:13:38 and last flash was seen at 21:14:50 (1 minute and 12 seconds later). If snapshots are taken every 3s to 5s for a total of 20 "flashes", this is the resulting path for the satellite:

Given the path similarity, the duration of the observation and the small discrepancy in the starting time (~35 seconds later in the footage), it is highly likely NORAD 25623 was the object seen.

The TLE provided in post #16 did not load in the software, so I downloaded the TLE from space track instead for 13 and 14 April 2024:

NORAD 25623
1 25623U 99004C 24104.50217941 -.00000050 00000-0 47560-3 0 9991
2 25623 51.9964 292.8432 0010672 309.1877 66.3075 11.86566882127979
1 25623U 99004C 24104.50217941 -.00000050 00000-0 47560-3 0 9991
2 25623 51.9964 292.8432 0010672 309.1877 66.3075 11.86566882127957
1 25623U 99004C 24104.86083576 -.00000054 00000-0 41101-3 0 9994
2 25623 51.9963 291.8979 0010666 309.8415 158.3905 11.86566845128010

 

[deirdre]

when adjusting the date, I also adjusted the time, from memory it was +/-30 seconds

so you scammed me. tsk tsk.

 

[Peter Godman]

This is the identification of the stars in the field of view:

View attachment 67728

This is NORAD 25623 approaching AF Col (HIP 29263) at 21:13:02 local time on 13 April 2024:

View attachment 67734

It reaches a position close to the last observed flash at 21:14:14, about 1 minute and 12 seconds after approaching AF Col. In the footage, the first flash is seen at 21:13:38 and last flash was seen at 21:14:50 (1 minute and 12 seconds later). If snapshots are taken every 3s to 5s for a total of 20 "flashes", this is the resulting path for the satellite:

View attachment 67737

Given the path similarity, the duration of the observation and the small discrepancy in the starting time (~35 seconds later in the footage), it is highly likely NORAD 25623 was the object seen.

The TLE provided in post #16 did not load in the software, so I downloaded the TLE from space track instead for 13 and 14 April 2024:

NORAD 25623
1 25623U 99004C 24104.50217941 -.00000050 00000-0 47560-3 0 9991
2 25623 51.9964 292.8432 0010672 309.1877 66.3075 11.86566882127979
1 25623U 99004C 24104.50217941 -.00000050 00000-0 47560-3 0 9991
2 25623 51.9964 292.8432 0010672 309.1877 66.3075 11.86566882127957
1 25623U 99004C 24104.86083576 -.00000054 00000-0 41101-3 0 9994
2 25623 51.9963 291.8979 0010666 309.8415 158.3905 11.86566845128010

thanks for your comprehensive analysis John, much appreciated

 

[Peter Godman]

so you scammed me. tsk tsk.

to deceive you +/- 30 seconds is the only reason I began the thread

 

[deirdre]

to deceive you +/- 30 seconds is the only reason I began the thread

it's cool. i find the squid way more interesting anyway. i just wouldnt have wasted time trying to omit planes if i knew the timestamp was based on memory. no big deal really, it wasnt that much time wasted

add: if youre good with a satellite explanation, that's cool. even if you adjusted for daylight savings time etc i'm guessing the satellite would be in the same area or another satellite. there are alot up there..