COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

Mendel

Senior Member.
I'm trying to think of a drug that has delayed long term side effects after just two doses.
Vaccinations have had various long-term effects attributed to them ("autism" really took off), most of which have been debunked. I found a good overview addressing the popular claims:
Article:
In Germany, a large number of biased reports against vaccination have recently been published in all of the news media, and particularly on the internet. This paper discusses the safety profile of modern vaccines and their continuous surveillance and shows why the current criticism of vaccination on safety grounds is unjustified.

One of the issues that appear to remain unresolved is the Guillain-Barre-Syndrome, which is usually triggered by an infection (e.g. Covid-19), and since a vaccination is a mock infection, it might trigger the syndrome as well. This is also an issue with some Covid vaccines.
Article:
The risk appears to be very small. So far, there have been 100 reports of the syndrome in people who had received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Nearly 13 million doses of the vaccine have been administered in the United States.

[...]


This is not the first vaccine that has been linked to Guillain-Barré, although the risk appears to be tiny. A large swine flu vaccination campaign in 1976 led to a small uptick in the incidence of syndrome; the vaccine caused roughly one extra case of Guillain-Barré for every 100,000 people vaccinated. The seasonal flu shot is associated with roughly one to two additional cases for every million vaccines administered.
“I think the data are pretty compelling that the flu vaccine causes Guillain-Barré syndrome, but it’s a very small risk,” said Daniel Salmon, the director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins University.
GBS has a severe acute phase and often comes with lesser enduring effects.

Obviously you need to weigh that small risk against the risk of contracting Covid and the common long-term effects of that.

Also, that effect is not "delayed". Delayed long-term effects often involve cancer, but that typically requires a more enduring exposure?
 
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derwoodii

Senior Member.
My city is world record holder and forecast is we got 4 more weeks to go

Melbourne passes Buenos Aires' world record for time spent in COVID-19 lockdown​

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/melbourne-longest-lockdown/100510710

 

derwoodii

Senior Member.
SmartSelect_20211007-114237_Samsung Internet.jpg
Left: https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/weekly-covid-19-vaccine-data
Right: https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data
The dark purple areas have a vaccination rate <40%, the next lighter colour is <50%.
The dark grey areas have >500/100,000 "active cases", however these are counted.
Looks like a deadly combination for some areas, while others do much better.


yeah its gonna be a close call if we dont get a run away spike in case number / deaths. Thankfully community vax take up and testing is improving daily and we are moving into warmer season weather.
Its hoped that we peak at 2000 daily new cases then plateau as vax % catch up with case numbers.
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
I just believe with clear information out there. Everyone wouldn’t be at each other‘s throats like they are now.

What for the last year and a half the public has been operating under the mushroom analogy. “Everybody keeps us in the dark in feeds us BS”
I've been browsing Peter Sandman's website again (first time this year), and he's made me aware that, aside from the deliberate misinformation, risk communication is challenging and offers ample opportunity to make mistakes.

The reason we have conflicting information on Covid from reliable sources is, as I see it:
• Knowledge is developing, it starts of uncertain and inaccurate and gets better over time; as that happens, some initial assessments need to be revised
• The situation keeps changing, this concerns the number of people infected and vaccinated and hospitalized, the new strains of the virus, and the availability of tests, masks, ICU equipment, and treatment options.
• Different countries and different states have different situations, or they may have similar situations at different times.

That means even honest information is dated, and today's messaging may contradict earlier communications without anything being wrong with either at the time. There's a limit to how clear they can get even if their communications were perfect, which they're not. (And it gets worse with all of the misinformation from other sources in the mix.)

The best way to get clear answers is to keep asking clear questions. The best way to learn is to think about what you really want to know, and then keep digging until you have the answer.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
note:
  • these numbers are only through Medicare. So they are not full numbers, just mostly seniors.
  • Starts in January (when not many vaccinated yet...see below source)
  • Also mostly before Delta variant.

Article:
from January to May in 2021, per CNN.

Researchers at HHS’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation found in the report that the vaccine helped prevent infection, hospitalization and death among those who received the vaccine through Medicare, which is mostly seniors.

According to the report, the vaccine stopped:

265,000 new COVID-19 infections.
107,000 hospitalizations.
39,000 deaths.




Article:
At This Early Stage of the COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-Out, Most Older Adults Have Not Yet Been Vaccinated As Supply Remains Limited
Published: Feb 08, 2021
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
Vaccination rates depend on population figures, and these can be quite inaccurate. So Covid statistics that show incidence among vaccinated/unvaccinated can be misleading, as we don't know how many unvaccinated there are, and as vaccinations are counted for the wrong state (prime example is seniors vaccinated in Florida who don't reside there).

I'm quoting a graph showing the difference for the UK, depending on which population data you use, that was used in a Financial Times article ("Data glitches hamper response to Covid pandemic", I got past the paywall by looking it up on Google) and also in a Twitter thread by one of the authors of that article.
Article:
It turns out many countries do not know how many residents they have, what proportion of eligible people have come forward for the jab and how many remain unvaccinated.

“The average person would be surprised that governments don’t know how many people are actually in the country,” said Stian Westlake, chief executive of the UK’s Royal Statistical Society. “But this great unknown can cause a whole host of data glitches, especially when responding to a health emergency.”


FBb0x1TWEAYtxGM.pngJennifer Nuzzo, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said US healthcare and population data suffered from “major blind spots” caused by states not sharing data effectively.

“The reality is that we don’t actually have as high a level of coverage as we think and that could undermine confidence and further hinder leaders’ abilities to encourage people to get vaccinated,” said Nuzzo.

“Worst of all, anti-vaxxers and Covid deniers feed on the daylight between reality and the incomplete data we currently have as evidence of a grand conspiracy or bureaucratic incompetence.”

Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1447617114999767045
 
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Agent K

Senior Member

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Agent K

Senior Member
It looks like being unvaccinated is like being 30 years older in your chances.
In your chances of surviving, yes, being fully vaccinated is like being 30 years younger and unvaccinated. But in your chances of avoiding illness in the first place, being fully vaccinated is better than being unvaccinated regardless of age.
1634535047276.png
 

econ41

Senior Member
In your chances of surviving, yes, being fully vaccinated is like being 30 years younger and unvaccinated. But in your chances of avoiding illness in the first place, being fully vaccinated is better than being unvaccinated regardless of age.
It is also, currently, a damn sight easier to get vaccinated than it is to take 30 years off your age.
Tho' if the technology for age reduction was available in beta form I would offer myself for clinical trials. And - given my current age 80 - THAT offer is actually a sound bet based on the relevant probabilities and actuarial realities. ;)
 
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