COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

I'm trying to think of a drug that has delayed long term side effects after just two doses.
Vaccinations have had various long-term effects attributed to them ("autism" really took off), most of which have been debunked. I found a good overview addressing the popular claims:
Article:
In Germany, a large number of biased reports against vaccination have recently been published in all of the news media, and particularly on the internet. This paper discusses the safety profile of modern vaccines and their continuous surveillance and shows why the current criticism of vaccination on safety grounds is unjustified.

One of the issues that appear to remain unresolved is the Guillain-Barre-Syndrome, which is usually triggered by an infection (e.g. Covid-19), and since a vaccination is a mock infection, it might trigger the syndrome as well. This is also an issue with some Covid vaccines.
Article:
The risk appears to be very small. So far, there have been 100 reports of the syndrome in people who had received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Nearly 13 million doses of the vaccine have been administered in the United States.

[...]


This is not the first vaccine that has been linked to Guillain-Barré, although the risk appears to be tiny. A large swine flu vaccination campaign in 1976 led to a small uptick in the incidence of syndrome; the vaccine caused roughly one extra case of Guillain-Barré for every 100,000 people vaccinated. The seasonal flu shot is associated with roughly one to two additional cases for every million vaccines administered.
“I think the data are pretty compelling that the flu vaccine causes Guillain-Barré syndrome, but it’s a very small risk,” said Daniel Salmon, the director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety at Johns Hopkins University.
GBS has a severe acute phase and often comes with lesser enduring effects.

Obviously you need to weigh that small risk against the risk of contracting Covid and the common long-term effects of that.

Also, that effect is not "delayed". Delayed long-term effects often involve cancer, but that typically requires a more enduring exposure?
 
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My city is world record holder and forecast is we got 4 more weeks to go

Melbourne passes Buenos Aires' world record for time spent in COVID-19 lockdown​

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-03/melbourne-longest-lockdown/100510710

As of 8:00pm on Sunday, a Victorian who has lived in Melbourne and not left since the beginning of the pandemic will have spent 245 days in lockdown.

Key points:​

  • Melbourne is scheduled to be in lockdown three weeks longer than the next most restricted city, Buenos Aires
  • Premier Daniel Andrews has not ruled out lockdown extensions to ease the pressure on the state's health system
  • The opposition has criticised the government for its handling of the pandemic
It is the longest cumulative lockdown for any city in the world.

Buenos Aires previously held the record, enduring a 234-day lockdown from March 20 to November 11, 2020, and a short 10-day circuit-breaker lockdown from May 21 to May 31 this year.
Content from External Source
 
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Left: https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/weekly-covid-19-vaccine-data
Right: https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data
The dark purple areas have a vaccination rate <40%, the next lighter colour is <50%.
The dark grey areas have >500/100,000 "active cases", however these are counted.
Looks like a deadly combination for some areas, while others do much better.


yeah its gonna be a close call if we dont get a run away spike in case number / deaths. Thankfully community vax take up and testing is improving daily and we are moving into warmer season weather.
Its hoped that we peak at 2000 daily new cases then plateau as vax % catch up with case numbers.
 
I just believe with clear information out there. Everyone wouldn’t be at each other‘s throats like they are now.

What for the last year and a half the public has been operating under the mushroom analogy. “Everybody keeps us in the dark in feeds us BS”
I've been browsing Peter Sandman's website again (first time this year), and he's made me aware that, aside from the deliberate misinformation, risk communication is challenging and offers ample opportunity to make mistakes.

The reason we have conflicting information on Covid from reliable sources is, as I see it:
• Knowledge is developing, it starts of uncertain and inaccurate and gets better over time; as that happens, some initial assessments need to be revised
• The situation keeps changing, this concerns the number of people infected and vaccinated and hospitalized, the new strains of the virus, and the availability of tests, masks, ICU equipment, and treatment options.
• Different countries and different states have different situations, or they may have similar situations at different times.

That means even honest information is dated, and today's messaging may contradict earlier communications without anything being wrong with either at the time. There's a limit to how clear they can get even if their communications were perfect, which they're not. (And it gets worse with all of the misinformation from other sources in the mix.)

The best way to get clear answers is to keep asking clear questions. The best way to learn is to think about what you really want to know, and then keep digging until you have the answer.
 
note:
  • these numbers are only through Medicare. So they are not full numbers, just mostly seniors.
  • Starts in January (when not many vaccinated yet...see below source)
  • Also mostly before Delta variant.

Article:
from January to May in 2021, per CNN.

Researchers at HHS’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation found in the report that the vaccine helped prevent infection, hospitalization and death among those who received the vaccine through Medicare, which is mostly seniors.

According to the report, the vaccine stopped:

265,000 new COVID-19 infections.
107,000 hospitalizations.
39,000 deaths.




Article:
At This Early Stage of the COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-Out, Most Older Adults Have Not Yet Been Vaccinated As Supply Remains Limited
Published: Feb 08, 2021
 
Vaccination rates depend on population figures, and these can be quite inaccurate. So Covid statistics that show incidence among vaccinated/unvaccinated can be misleading, as we don't know how many unvaccinated there are, and as vaccinations are counted for the wrong state (prime example is seniors vaccinated in Florida who don't reside there).

I'm quoting a graph showing the difference for the UK, depending on which population data you use, that was used in a Financial Times article ("Data glitches hamper response to Covid pandemic", I got past the paywall by looking it up on Google) and also in a Twitter thread by one of the authors of that article.
Article:
It turns out many countries do not know how many residents they have, what proportion of eligible people have come forward for the jab and how many remain unvaccinated.

“The average person would be surprised that governments don’t know how many people are actually in the country,” said Stian Westlake, chief executive of the UK’s Royal Statistical Society. “But this great unknown can cause a whole host of data glitches, especially when responding to a health emergency.”


FBb0x1TWEAYtxGM.pngJennifer Nuzzo, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said US healthcare and population data suffered from “major blind spots” caused by states not sharing data effectively.

“The reality is that we don’t actually have as high a level of coverage as we think and that could undermine confidence and further hinder leaders’ abilities to encourage people to get vaccinated,” said Nuzzo.

“Worst of all, anti-vaxxers and Covid deniers feed on the daylight between reality and the incomplete data we currently have as evidence of a grand conspiracy or bureaucratic incompetence.”


Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1447617114999767045
 
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It looks like being unvaccinated is like being 30 years older in your chances.
In your chances of surviving, yes, being fully vaccinated is like being 30 years younger and unvaccinated. But in your chances of avoiding illness in the first place, being fully vaccinated is better than being unvaccinated regardless of age.
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In your chances of surviving, yes, being fully vaccinated is like being 30 years younger and unvaccinated. But in your chances of avoiding illness in the first place, being fully vaccinated is better than being unvaccinated regardless of age.
It is also, currently, a damn sight easier to get vaccinated than it is to take 30 years off your age.
Tho' if the technology for age reduction was available in beta form I would offer myself for clinical trials. And - given my current age 80 - THAT offer is actually a sound bet based on the relevant probabilities and actuarial realities. ;)
 
I guess over here (Dutch fellow) we will not have a nice Christmas. They are re-introducing facemasks everywhere, and QR codes on more locations. Also the distance measure of 1.5m is back. How great.


And all this basically because they don't want to target the unvaccinated. So we all need to suffer until 2050 or something.


I hate (insert preferred profanity) all of this.
 
And all this basically because they don't want to target the unvaccinated.
"They" can't. Sticking someone with a needle is an injury, and a state needs to have a good reason to be allowed to do that to people. If face masks, distancing and QR codes suffice to curb the epidemic, there's not enough reason.

Germany is mandating "3G"=recovered, vaccinated, or a recent test, in areas with high incidence/high hospitalization; with venues allowed to go to "2G"=recovered and vaccinated only, at their choice, which does exclude unvaccinated people. Since people have to pay for their own tests now (and health insurance pays for the vaccination), this "get tested on the day or keep out" rule exerts a small amount of pressure on the vaccine hesitant people.

In a Western style democracy, people have the right to make their own health decisions, except in an emergency. It's annoying sometimes, but it is what it is.
 
In a Western style democracy, people have the right to make their own health decisions, except in an emergency. It's annoying sometimes, but it is what it is.
That is the central issue. People are free to make their own choices as to whether they meet the safety criteria for specific situations. Hence the commonly referenced analogies to safety boots or hard hats. You are not forced to wear them. BUT if you want to work on a construction site you need to comply with the relevant safety rules. It is your choice despite the confused logic displayed by many anti-vaxers. Mandating enforced vaccination goes a "bridge too far" for most of us. But industry or location-specific requirements for vaccination seem to be quite persuasive. My AU State of NSW, despite a slow start with vaccine availability, currently has 93.6% of over 16 age first shot vaccinated and 88.3% second shot. And, not surprising to me, progress has slowed. But anti-vax activity seems to have had little effect.
 
And all this basically because they don't want to target the unvaccinated. So we all need to suffer until 2050 or something.

"They" can't. Sticking someone with a needle is an injury, and a state needs to have a good reason to be allowed to do that to people. If face masks, distancing and QR codes suffice to curb the epidemic, there's not enough reason.

In a Western style democracy, people have the right to make their own health decisions, except in an emergency. It's annoying sometimes, but it is what it is.
Maybe I misunderstood one or both of you. I took "target" to mean either "shame" or "put at risk" or maybe a little of both. The government can't forcible vaccinate those people, but the government needs to protect them and not make them feel bad about not getting vaccinated, so, it's back to spring 2020 for everyone. Yes Ravi?

If that's the case, when "people have the right to make their own health decisions" at what point do they have to live with those decisions? And at what point is the rest of society responsible for those people?
I hesitate to use the word "fairness", but if we have followed all the rules along the way: stay home, distance, masks, cancel holidays and weddings, now do these things to protect the health care system and your neighbors until the pandemic is over. And since mass vaccines will all but end the pandemic, we went and got one as soon as possible.

Now we have people that wont get the vaccine. So are they still our responsibility? And I don't mean leaving people to die in the street, but if I'm no longer at risk, or at least at a very small and I would argue a manageable risk, for getting COVID, but I'm still being asked to stay home, mask up, cancel holidays and so on I'd be asking why?

To protect people with immuno-deficiency issues? Ok, in isolated cases yes.
To protect people that have yet to have access to a vaccine or are prevented from getting it for medical reasons? Yes, sure.
To protect people that willing choose NOT to get vaccinated for what ever reason? Humm, sounds like I need to modify my behavior to negate risks they have made about their health.

Then there is our own personal way of dealing with it all. I have a friend that will NOT get vaccinated, and aside from the vaccine issue is level headed and non-conspiratorial. That's a risk the friend is willing to take. I am supposed to do work with him next week. Now if my neighbor that I was talking to this morning, tells me this weekend he has COVID, I'm telling my non-vaccinated friend that I wont see him for at least 2 weeks. I don't want to knowingly expose my friend, but I may unknowingly expose him just by seeing him. It's so much easier if he'd just get vaccinated.

I don't think there's an easy answer and it may depend on what we're being asked to do. In my county in Northern California, mask are not mandated. In other parts of the state they were re-mandated this summer for indoors and some places are now making places like restaurants check vaccine status before letting people in.

Sorry, I seemed to have rambled.
 
Maybe I misunderstood one or both of you. I took "target" to mean either "shame" or "put at risk" or maybe a little of both. The government can't forcible vaccinate those people, but the government needs to protect them and not make them feel bad about not getting vaccinated, so, it's back to spring 2020 for everyone. Yes Ravi?

If that's the case, when "people have the right to make their own health decisions" at what point do they have to live with those decisions? And at what point is the rest of society responsible for those people?

it's not in the governments best interest to shame people or threaten people... because that doesnt work. Does our government shame obese people? even though obesity greatly increases your chances of bad outcomes. Do they shame physically inactive people?.. because evidence shows better outcomes for people who exercise at least moderately.

They don't because shaming doesn't work .and apparently the threat of bad covid outcomes doesnt work either since rates have risen

Article:
New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showed 16 states now have obesity rates of 35% or higher. That's an increase of four states — Delaware, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — in just a year.



I don't disagree with you. I personally think if you want liberty ... have at it. But if you want to be part of society, then you have some responsibilities to be part of that society. This is unfortunately one of those "no easy answers" situations.
 
that's what my paragraph about different access rules for them comes in
I agree with that Mendel, no vaccine and you can't access the show or store or whatever. They're decision is limiting what they can do. I was mussing, given my understanding of Ravi's post, to what extent do you and I, and I assume we're both vaccinated, are we limited to what we can do because of those who choose not to get the vaccine? @Ravi made it sound like he was going back into almost full lock down, even though he is vaccinated, to protect those who choose not to.
 
@Ravi made it sound like he was going back into almost full lock down,
he said facemasks and distancing. and qr codes, which means they ARE targeting unvaccinated.. so not really sure what he means.

maybe he likes to go twerking (ie close distance) at clubs over christmas and all the easy girls/guys/other are also antivax so they wont be allowed in the clubs?
 
Does our government shame obese people? even though obesity greatly increases your chances of bad outcomes.
If someone is obese, that only affects their own health, because obesity is not transmissible; all it does is drive health insurance costs up (but so do certain types of sports).

If someone is unvaccinated, they are endangering the health of other people as well, because their decision helps the virus stay active and mutate.

That's why people who don't vaccinate themselves (refuse to wear masks, etc.) come across as selfish, while obese people don't. (and many ICU workers are getting fed up with having to risk their own lives for people too selfish to get vaccinated, which exacerbates the nurse shortage).

The catch is that because selfish people don't care about others, "shaming" them wouldn't work anyway. You'd have to punish them, but because of the aforementioned human rights issues, many countries can't do that.
facemasks and distancing. and qr codes, which means they ARE targeting unvaccinated
No, these measures target everyone.
 
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The only real point I make is that vaccination is the only way out for us. As long as we don't have this 98% coverage, there is no way the virus can be eradicated. And thus the antivaxxers shall be convinced at some point, otherwise we are doomed (physically or mentally).
 
The only real point I make is that vaccination is the only way out for us. As long as we don't have this 98% coverage, there is no way the virus can be eradicated. And thus the antivaxxers shall be convinced at some point, otherwise we are doomed (physically or mentally).
Well, if the virus can't be eradicated, everyone is going to have to keep their vaccinations current. Which means a steady income for Pfizer and Moderna. Ironically, anti-vaxxing benefits big pharma.

Regulations here have turned to hospitalizations as the main number to watch. In effect, current regulations make as many unvaccinated people sick as possible.
With 1 person per 100 000 hospitalized per day per 100 000, so approximately 10 new cases, with 20 000 unvaccinated it might take 2000 days, or 6 years, to get everyone infected at least once; but because of diminishing returns, it won't succeed, the virus just becomes endemic at a low level.
 
QR codes only target the unvaccinated. I didn't mean for my 2 sentences to be tied together, sorry.
Ravi is Dutch. Here's how QR codes are used in the Netherlands:
Article:
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In some places, QR codes are also used for contract tracing, e.g. in Germany and Australia:
Article:
  • Point your phone at the QR code on the poster until you see it on your screen and wait for the prompts.
  • Enter your details and tap "Check-in to this location". Next time your details will be saved.
When you check-in, you create a record of the time and date you visited a venue.
This means that if there is a COVID-19 outbreak, contact tracers can quickly contact you, if you've visited a public exposure site. This will help to contain a COVID-19 outbreak.

Both of these QR code uses target everyone.
we should speak with accuracy.
Hmmm.
 
Both of these QR code uses target everyone.
thanks, we only have the qr codes to attend an activity here in America. and we can just show our paper vax card.
I never heard of having to sign in electronically everywhere you go to trace you. That does sound way too 1984 (orwell).

I understand Ravi's meaning of his burden now. Thanks.
 
thanks, we only have the qr codes to attend an activity here in America. and we can just show our paper vax card.
I never heard of having to sign in electronically everywhere you go to trace you. That does sound way too 1984 (orwell).

I understand Ravi's meaning of his burden now. Thanks.

Thanks. I actually have to show my QR (or print out) at the gate where I work. As far as I know this is the only organisation in the Netherlands that actively demands this to be able to come in office. Obviously it is an international organisation (the Netherlands does not (yet) have a legal basis to use QR in "normal" Dutch companies), but I am not going to name it here.
 
QR codes are also used for contract tracing, e.g. in Germany and Australia:
Article:

  • Point your phone at the QR code on the poster until you see it on your screen and wait for the prompts.
  • Enter your details and tap "Check-in to this location". Next time your details will be saved.
When you check-in, you create a record of the time and date you visited a venue.
This means that if there is a COVID-19 outbreak, contact tracers can quickly contact you, if you've visited a public exposure site. This will help to contain a COVID-19 outbreak.

Both of these QR code uses target everyone.
Recording of entry to venues has been closely linked to the contact tracing processes in Australia. Managed at State level. QR code reading apps were quickly developed. The one for my State more recently enhanced to show vaccination status. From my perspective contact tracing appears to have been one of the most effective means of controlling COVID. Combined with near enough bi-partisan political agreement on COVID strategies. And a pleasing, to me, low level of anti-vax and "my rights" style activity.
 
Recording of entry to venues has been closely linked to the contact tracing processes in Australia. Managed at State level. QR code reading apps were quickly developed. The one for my State more recently enhanced to show vaccination status. From my perspective contact tracing appears to have been one of the most effective means of controlling COVID. Combined with near enough bi-partisan political agreement on COVID strategies. And a pleasing, to me, low level of anti-vax and "my rights" style activity.
We still do occasionally get the “my rights” people.
Yesterday I was entering my local Officeworks store (an Australian office supply chain) and a young lady was having an argument with the shop assistant at the front as she could not show proof vaccination. She was saying very loudly “it’s my right to choose whether or not to put poison in my body”, to which the shop assistant promptly answered “and it’s the right of this store to refuse entry to what is private property”. The young lady opened her mouth to say something, but decided against it and turned and walked away. She gave me a friendly “get out of my f***ING way” as she walked past me.
 
We still do occasionally get the “my rights” people.
Sure there are a few. But no sign of a critical mass with the ability to sway much public opinion. We had one local** "Organic Food" shop refuse entry to either mask wearers or vaccinated. Made the media but they were an exception.

** Bowral, NSW. I'm in Moss Vale - the neighbouring town.
 
How do they check that customers aren't vaccinated? Small town, so they just know?
We are only just getting serious with checking vaccine status. Two methods of "proof" are available:
1) - an on-line phone app - the NSW State official version is a multi-facet "Service Info" accessing app. COVID one of the "topics". It allows recording entry to premises to aid contact tracing and also shows digital proof of vaccination for COVID. (Other vaccinations can be accessed via Medicare Records.)
2) Printed "hard copy" vaccination certificate. (The same one accessed by the online app from the national database held by medicare.)

The degree of checking is still very variable. Many venues want to see both digital confirmations viz "recorded as being on the premises" AND "proof of vax". At the other extreme some venues pay little attention. And there is continuing debate about issues such as onus and burden of proof.

PLUS - yes - we are a small "town". A cluster of three town centres plus about 6 smaller towns and a number of villages. Bottom line - staff at many shops and venues are familiar with most of their regular customers.
 
Sure there are a few. But no sign of a critical mass with the ability to sway much public opinion. We had one local** "Organic Food" shop refuse entry to either mask wearers or vaccinated. Made the media but they were an exception.

** Bowral, NSW. I'm in Moss Vale - the neighbouring town.
Interesting, but not surprising. My sister-in-law actually spent a morning cursing that Bowral store on our family WhatsApp group.

Conversely, the local “organic” supermarket near where I live in Woollahra (Sydney) was one of the first stores I saw that implemented a “No mask, no entry” policy and has a big sign outside stating how many people they are going to let in tie store at a time, and a reminder that that all customers must be vaccinated.

Btw, haven’t travelled down the Hume highway for a couple of years. I assume the McDonalds is still there at the Moss Vale exit. I had the worst coffee of my life at that Maccas store.
 
How do they check that customers aren't vaccinated? Small town, so they just know?
As econ41 wrote they can check via a service NSW government app which shows either one has been vaccinated, or via a printed certificate. We can set up so that when we scan our QR code our vaccination status is displayed.

Here in Sydney most shops are pretty diligent in checking vaccine status. They ask to see proof as soon as you enter, and many even have somebody standing at the front checking vaccine status as people enter. For the most part customers are pretty happy to do this. Scanning the QR code and then showing it and your status to someone in the store takes all of about 30 seconds!

Yes. However, you don't have a certificate to prove you're NOT vaccinated, so couldn't anyone just shop at that anti-vax store regardless?
Personally I wouldn’t shop at an anti-vax store, and I think most people would have the same attitude.
 
Yes. However, you don't have a certificate to prove you're NOT vaccinated, so couldn't anyone just shop at that anti-vax store regardless?

obviously. i think the message from such places (at least from news articles with owners here in the U.S) is... "we're letting everyone in and we don't want to hear your mouth". Meaning, yes you can pretend you are not vaccinated but if you start preaching they will kick you out.
 
Btw, haven’t travelled down the Hume highway for a couple of years. I assume the McDonalds is still there at the Moss Vale exit. I had the worst coffee of my life at that Maccas store.
I think you refer to what is called the "Sutton Forest" Maccas. Reported to have the biggest turnover in NSW if not AU. Yes it is still there doing a roaring trade. Located at the Hume Highway about 1Km south of the Illawarra Highway. The original bigger shop on the western side of the highway -- they now have a satellite shop on the eastern side. Smaller - the natural business flow preference to the northbound traffic from points south.
 
Personally I wouldn’t shop at an anti-vax store, and I think most people would have the same attitude.

i personally think that may be part of the stats we are seeing on who is getting sick. This is just a logical guess of course, but i figure vaccinated people are much more likely to wear masks better and more consistently, as well as take more precautionary measures than unvaccinated people.

Of course, i'd say 30% of the vaccinated people i know are living life pretty much like pre pandemic... so i might be wrong.
 
i personally think that may be part of the stats we are seeing on who is getting sick. This is just a logical guess of course, but i figure vaccinated people are much more likely to wear masks better and more consistently, as well as take more precautionary measures than unvaccinated people.

Of course, i'd say 30% of the vaccinated people i know are living life pretty much like pre pandemic... so i might be wrong.
I agree with you there. Those vaccinated are more likely to take other precautions other than the vaccine. Anti vax shops from what I have observed are very pokey to be pro “alternative medicine”, which faith healing, crystal healing, natural medicines, and as someone who works in the pharmaceutical industry I don’t believe in any of that stuff.
 
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Those vaccinated are much more likely [to] take other precautions.
And those at higher risk of exposure are more likely to get vaccinated.

You're trading unsupported opinions (otherwise known as wild guesses) and restaurant reviews.

In my personal opinion, the main reason why vaccinated people are 5 times less likely to get Covid isn't masks and precautions, it's the vaccination.
 
And those at higher risk of exposure are more likely to get vaccinated.

You're trading unsupported opinions (otherwise known as wild guesses) and restaurant reviews.

In my personal opinion, the main reason why vaccinated people are 5 times less likely to get Covid isn't masks and precautions, it's the vaccination.

I 100 percent agree with you, and my comment was not to undermine the proven efficacy of the vaccines. I was merely saying that vaccinated people recognize the seriousness of covid and do as much as they can to minimize risk of infection or transmission beyond the vaccination, whereas as anti vaxers tend to also be anti maskers, not believe in social distancing, etc.[
 
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