COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

[Arugula]

Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Map

I've been following this closely, and am starting to see some conspiracy theories and fake news show up about this outbreak. I've seen theories ranging from being caused by a biosafety lab leaking the virus, that it's a "false flag" or lie to create panic, a plot by the Chinese government against the Hong Kong protesters, or shadowy elites setting up a global pandemic -- but none of these theories have actual evidence at this time.

I think it might be useful to gather the facts about how the virus started & keeping it in perspective.

Events from 31 December 2019 to 20 January 2020:

• On 31 December 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia unknown etiology (unknown cause) detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province of China. From 31 December 2019 through 3 January 2020, a total of 44 case-patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. During this reported period, the causal agent was not identified.
• On 11 and 12 January 2020, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission China that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan City.
• The Chinese authorities identified a new type of coronavirus, which was isolated on 7 January 2020.
• On 12 January 2020, China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus for countries to use in developing specific diagnostic kits.
• On 13 January 2020, the Ministry of Public Health, Thailand reported the first imported case of lab-confirmed novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
• On 15 January 2020, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan (MHLW) reported an imported case of laboratory-confirmed 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
• On 20 January 2020, National IHR Focal Point (NFP) for Republic of Korea reported the first case of novel coronavirus in the Republic of Korea.

Situation Update January 23rd:
• A total of 581 confirmed cases have been reported for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) globally;
• Of the 581 cases reported, 571 cases were reported from China;
• Cases have been reported in Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Taipei Municipality, China, Macau Special Administrative Region, United States of America and the Republic of Korea; All had travel history to Wuhan;
• Of the 571 confirmed cases in China, 375 cases were confirmed from Hubei Province;
• Of the 571 cases, 95 cases are severely ill2 ;
• Seventeen deaths have been reported (all from Hubei Province)

You can view World Health Organization's full situation reports here: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Origin:

Coronaviruses originate in animals — like camels, civets and bats — and are usually not transmissible to humans. But occasionally a coronavirus mutates and can pass from animals to humans and then from human to human, as was the case with the SARS epidemic in the early 2000s. (SARS stands for "severe acute respiratory syndrome.") China's National Health Commission has confirmed that 15 health care workers have become infected, indicating that the virus can spread from human to human.

The first known cases in December 2019 were traced to an animal market in the Chinese city of Wuhan and are believed to have come from contact with live animals that were infected. The market has since been closed. Wuhan is a major logistics and transportation hub. It lies about 500 miles west of Shanghai and is home to more than 11 million people.
(source: NPR

Source: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/24/798661901/wuhan-coronavirus-101-what-we-do-and-dont-know-about-a-newly-identified-disease
)


CDC Response
More cases are likely to be identified in the coming days, including more cases in the United States. Given what has occurred previously with MERS and SARS, it's likely that some person-to-person spread will continue to occur.

• CDC is closely monitoring this situation and is working with WHO.
• CDC established a 2019-nCoV Incident Management Structure on January 7, 2020. On January 21, 2020, CDC activated its Emergency Response System to better provide ongoing support to the 2019-nCoV response.
• On January 23, 2020, CDC again raised its travel alert for the coronavirus outbreak. The travel notice for Wuhan City was raised from Level 2: Practice Enhanced Precautions to Level 3: Avoid Nonessential Travel. CDC also issued a Level 1: Practice Usual Precautions for the rest of China.
• CDC also is conducting entry screening of passengers on direct and connecting flights from Wuhan, China to five major airports: Atlanta (ATL), Chicago (ORD), Los Angeles, (LAX) New York city (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO).
• CDC issued an updated interim Health Alert Notice (HAN) Advisory to inform state and local health departments and health care providers about this outbreak on January 17, 2020.
• A CDC team has been deployed to support the ongoing investigation in the state of Washington in response to the first reported case of 2019-nCoV in the United States, including potentially tracing close contacts to determine if anyone else has become ill.
• CDC has developed a real time Reverse Transcription-Polymerase Chain Reaction (rRT-PCR) test that can diagnose 2019-nCoV. Currently, testing for this virus must take place at CDC, but in the coming days and weeks, CDC will share these tests with domestic and international partners through the agency's International Reagent Resourceexternal icon.
• CDC also is sequencing the entire genome of the virus from the first reported case in the United States and plans to upload the sequence to GenBank and GISAID when completed.
• CDC also is growing the virus in cell culture, which is necessary for further studies, including for additional genetic characterization.

(Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html)


Treatments:

Current studies at NIAID-funded institutions and by scientists in NIAID laboratories include efforts that build on previous work on SARS- and MERS-CoVs. For example, researchers are developing diagnostic tests to rapidly detect 2019-nCoV infection and exploring the use of broad-spectrum anti-viral drugs to treat 2019-nCoVs, the authors note.
NIAID researchers also are adapting approaches used with investigational SARS and MERS vaccines to jumpstart candidate vaccine development for 2019-nCoV. Advances in technology since the SARS outbreak have greatly compressed the vaccine development timeline, the authors write. They indicate that a candidate vaccine for 2019-nCoV could be ready for early-stage human testing in as little as three months as compared to 20 months for early-stage development of an investigational SARS vaccine.

(Source: https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...cuss-novel-coronavirus-recently-emerged-china)

 

[deirdre]

Jan 24th article.

This guy is a comforting sight (<sarcasm) as you enter the subway.

The number of confirmed cases has risen to 830, the National Health Commission said. Twenty-six people have died, including the first two deaths outside Hubei.

Transportation was shut down Friday in Wuhan and least 13 surrounding cities in Hubei Province, with a combined population of more than 33 million people, according to
a report in the state-run Global Times
newspaper. At least three cities were on total lockdown as of Friday evening.

source for all: NBC News: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...bs/ar-BBZhEnT?ocid=spartanntp#image=BBZaM5o|6

 

[Mick West]

This video reports that some Chinese are blaming America (0:20)

 

[Arugula]

One theory I've seen discussion about the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and the possibility the virus might have "escaped". It is located 20 miles away from the Huanan Seafood Market, the epicenter of the outbreak.

(Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/...udying-SARS-Ebola-Wuhan-outbreaks-center.html)


The Wuhan Institute of Virology started construction in 2003, after the SARS outbreak, contains a maximum security biosafety level-4 (BSL-4) lab to study dangerous pathogens. BSL-4 is the highest level of biocontainment. There is a 2017 Nature article discussing potential concerns with that laboratory:

The lab's first project will be to study the BSL-3 pathogen that causes Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever: a deadly tick-borne virus that affects livestock across the world, including in northwest China, and that can jump to people

Future plans include studying the pathogen that causes SARS, which also doesn't require a BSL-4 lab, before moving on to Ebola and the West African Lassa virus, which do. Some one million Chinese people work in Africa; the country needs to be ready for any eventuality, says Yuan. "Viruses don't know borders."

...

But worries surround the Chinese lab, too. The SARS virus has escaped from high-level containment facilities in Beijing multiple times, notes Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey. Tim Trevan, founder of CHROME Biosafety and Biosecurity Consulting in Damascus, Maryland, says that an open culture is important to keeping BSL-4 labs safe, and he questions how easy this will be in China, where society emphasizes hierarchy. "Diversity of viewpoint, flat structures where everyone feels free to speak up and openness of information are important," he says.

(Source: Nature Magazine, https://www.nature.com/news/inside-...tudy-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487)

Looking into April 2004 reports of SARS escaping from the Institute of Virology in Beijing, it traveled through researchers studying the disease after the main outbreak in 2003. The same strain basically re-introduced back into the environment.

Meanwhile 2019-nCoV is understood to be a new virus similar to a virus found in bats.

The latest outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China, with eight confirmed or suspected cases so far and hundreds quarantined, involves two researchers who were working with the virus in a Beijing research lab, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday (April 26).

"We suspect two people, a 26-year-old female postgraduate student and a 31-year-old male postdoc, were both infected, apparently in two separate incidents," Bob Dietz, WHO spokesman in Beijing, told The Scientist.

The woman was admitted to hospital on April 4, but the man apparently became infected independently 2 weeks later, being hospitalized on April 17. Both worked at the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing, part of China's Center for Disease Control.

(Source: https://www.the-scientist.com/news-analysis/sars-escaped-beijing-lab-twice-50137)

 

[The Night Wind]

According to the Chinese Media, the government quarantined Wuhan because Chinese New Year is beginning soon; hence lots of travel to and from the city. They posted this op-ed in the Party Newspaper: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177763.shtml

 

[Agent K]

From the China Uncensored YouTube channel

Is China Covering Up a Deadly New Virus?

Source: https://youtu.be/mAYIAM3WnKg?t=216

3:40
"Yes, the answer is yes. On January 16, a little over two weeks after the first reported case in Wuhan, there were still only 41 confirmed cases of the virus in China, and they were only in Wuhan, nowhere else in China. That was accoridng to Chinese authorities. But, there were already 3 confirmed cases in Thailand and Japan."

 

[The Night Wind]

From the China Uncensored YouTube channel

Is China Covering Up a Deadly New Virus?

Source: https://youtu.be/mAYIAM3WnKg?t=216

3:40
"Yes, the answer is yes. On January 16, a little over two weeks after the first reported case in Wuhan, there were still only 41 confirmed cases of the virus in China, and they were only in Wuhan, nowhere else in China. That was accoridng to Chinese authorities. But, there were already 3 confirmed cases in Thailand and Japan."

I would answer, no. The Chinese Media today reported the same figures in its State-controlled press:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/25/c_138732461.htm

 

[derwoodii]

Kung hei fat Choi

According to the Chinese zodiac calendar, this year is 庚子年or simply the year of the metal rat/mouse. This occurs every 60 years. 1960 - great famine in China
1900 - boxer rebellion, leading to the invasion of China by 8 nations
1840 - opium wars, leading to the annex of HK
2020 - ?? Wuhan Viras maybe ??

 

[Dan Wilson]

This preprint of a study into the new virus has some interesting insights. https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.22.914952v2

The epidemic, started from December 12th, 2019, has caused 198 laboratory confirmed infections with three fatal cases by January 20th, 2020. Full-length genome sequences were obtained from five patients at the early stage of the outbreak. They are almost identical to each other and share 79.5% sequence identify to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, it was found that nCoV-2019 is 96% identical at the whole genome level to a bat coronavirus.

Essentially, at a genomic level it looks like this virus originated from bats. I'm speculating now, but the fact that it seems to have originated in an animal market could also be a clue as to why the virus appeared. Sometimes host species can pass a virus to another "amplifier" species that can then pass the virus on to other species that were previously not susceptible to the virus, like humans. This has happened before and will happen again as humans continue to bring ecosystems together in new ways. Whether or not my speculation is accurate, the coronavirus outbreak fits the bill for a classic zoonosis, or animal virus spillover. This situation is concerning and of course does not support any misinformation conspiracy theories floating around.

 

[derwoodii]

This is a photo of G316 highway (G denotes national interstate highway) into Jiangxi province.

From various news sources, Beijing has blocked all highway access into the capital.
In Wuhan, all ferry and tunnel service that connects the three major areas are now suspended. The Wuhan virus has spread to all parts of China except Tibet(so far). Yet HK Hong Kong administration has only just stopped air and rail service to Wuhan and the HK borders are still open

oh im getting this from family members within China so dont have the links or source to supply

 

[derwoodii]

Taiwan has closed borders and Macau just announced that it is blocking anyone from or who has been to Hubei from going into the city unless they have medical proof with medical doctor certification that they are virus free.. Since no such proof is possible, it is effectively a ban of anyone from Hubei.

 

[deirdre]

oh im getting this from family members within China so dont have the links or source to supply

I do see that in this reuters article.
2020-01-26T13:59:20+0000

The outbreak of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan has piled further pressure on embattled Hong Kong authorities, who have so far refused to categorically block the flow of visitors from mainland China across several land border crossings. Direct train and flight connections to and from Wuhan have, however, been suspended.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hongkong-idUSKBN1ZP0H1

 

[Dan Wilson]

It seems now that the origin of the virus may have become more mysterious. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.

The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019-novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The earliest case became ill on 1 December and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. "No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they state. Their data also show that in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace either. "That's a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Georgetown

Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December—and those reports simply said "most" cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January.

Edit: fixed from internal to external quote

 

[derwoodii]

The earliest case became ill on 1 December and had no reported link to the seafood market,

Uh oh i flew home from HongKong & China on December 1st and as we landed i begun to feel a sore throat.. i was snotty little patient zero in OZ for 2 -3 weeks... Fyi no one else in family has suffered symptoms..

 

[Stefan Leahu]

It might be that it's already more spread out than thought. Incubation period of up to two weeks while being contagious without showing symptoms...that's pretty much a recipe for an epidemic. In France we're experiencing a spike of weird flu-like symptoms, bronchitis etc. since late-December. Now, I know flu, I know pneumonia etc but it still seems a bit off this year. But officially the coronavirus is not here.
I've been having flu-like symptoms for like a week now, even with a bit of 'sore kidneys', if that term exists, and ,yes, difficulty breathing. Now, I don't usually get sick like this and it's definitely out of the ordinary. But if I went and told them it might be the coronavirus, I'd either freak them out or they'd tell me to go beat my drum elsewhere. Other than a trip to Nantes mid-January, I haven't even been away from rural western France.

 

[Arugula]

Here is a pretty fascinating geographic information system showing where the virus has spread: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

During a press conference a few hours ago, a western journalist identifying her outlet as "German Television" asked about rumors of 100,000 people being infected, and asking how China's national health commission (NHC) is counting 4,000 confirmed cases. (Timestamp 11:06) The NHC representative didn't say anything other than a vague "they're updating the statistics as they get them":


Source: https://youtu.be/xQxOeUA0jRQ?t=666


I'm am trying to figure out what publication she's with and where she got those numbers from, and all I can seem to find is from a kind of sensationalist Guardian article where a health professor guesses 100,000 people might be affected:

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his "best guess" was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

(Source: https://www.theguardian.com/science...rus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn)

Later on in the discussion (at 15:45) a different journalist says there's 6,900 suspected cases, and asks about how they diagnose and if there's enough beds for them. (they say they have 59 hospitals in the area that can hold up to 10,000 infected, about 174-300 patients per hospital)

To me, that sounds more plausible given everything else we have heard, but of course there's naturally a lot of chaos and confusion and unless you're there in person, it's hard to know what's going on.

Meanwhile fake news sites are not helping by spreading unsourced information that "10,000 People Have Died in Wuhan" through social media: https://www.politifact.com/facebook...reports-10000-dead-wuhan-coronavirus-pants-f/

 

[Dingo]

It might be that it's already more spread out than thought. Incubation period of up to two weeks while being contagious without showing symptoms...that's pretty much a recipe for an epidemic. In France we're experiencing a spike of weird flu-like symptoms, bronchitis etc. since late-December. Now, I know flu, I know pneumonia etc but it still seems a bit off this year. But officially the coronavirus is not here.
I've been having flu-like symptoms for like a week now, even with a bit of 'sore kidneys', if that term exists, and ,yes, difficulty breathing. Now, I don't usually get sick like this and it's definitely out of the ordinary. But if I went and told them it might be the coronavirus, I'd either freak them out or they'd tell me to go beat my drum elsewhere. Other than a trip to Nantes mid-January, I haven't even been away from rural western France.

Not to insult you in any way, but in this case, it's likely in your head. Because you're worried about coronavirus you're paying far more attention to your body than usual, and paying more attention to sick people than usual. It's the same psychological trick where you don't notice contrails in the sky until you're exposed to chemtrail theories, then suddenly you see it everywhere.

The odds of you actually having coronavirus are vanishingly small if you've not travelled or been around people who have travelled.

Hell if we go by the official numbers then the odds are low even in Wuhan. 4690 cases in a city of 11,081,000 (newest numbers from wikipedia) is something like 0.04% of the population.

 

[deirdre]

But if I went and told them it might be the coronavirus

in my experience, doctors get all uppity if you tell them what you have period. you just tell them "im having difficulty breathing and I think my kidney's hurt" and let them tell you. then later you can throw in.. what if its that coronavirus thing? am I going to die? (in which case they might take a blood test just to save themselves a lawsuit if you do die or spread it).

either way difficulty breathing is a good reason to see a dr even if it is just flu or winter allergy stuff.

 

[Mick West]

I was reading about nCoV last night, and I started to feel like I had the flu. I feel fine now.

It's hard to draw a line between warning people and creating panic and mass hysteria. Hospitals will get swamped with hypochondriac people, which stops the actual sick from getting treated, and probably spreads the virus even more.

Still, if you can't breathe, go to the hospital.

 

[Agent K]

If a disease is deadly like Ebola, it's safe to assume that most people who catch it will end up in the hospital. But if it's more like the flu, then only a fraction of people who catch it will see a doctor for it.

 

[Agent K]

"5 million left Wuhan before lockdown"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak
About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials warned the virus' ability to spread was getting stronger. There were about 9 million people remaining in the city after the lockdown, Zhou told a press conference.

If 5 million left and 9 million remained, that doesn't add up to 11 million. What was the traffic like?

 

[Agent K]

From the China Uncensored YouTube channel

Is China Covering Up a Deadly New Virus?
3:40
"Yes, the answer is yes. On January 16, a little over two weeks after the first reported case in Wuhan, there were still only 41 confirmed cases of the virus in China, and they were only in Wuhan, nowhere else in China. That was accoridng to Chinese authorities. But, there were already 3 confirmed cases in Thailand and Japan."

The mayor of Wuhan admits mistakes, says public information should have been released more quickly

https://www.theguardian.com/science...pecial-meeting-in-beijing-as-death-toll-jumps
The mayor of Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, has acknowledged criticism over his handling of the crisis, admitting that information was not released quickly enough.
Zhou Xianwang wore a mask for protection as he told the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV: "We haven't disclosed information in a timely manner and also did not use effective information to improve our work."
He said he would resign if it helped with public opinion but pointed out the local government was obliged to seek permission before fully disclosing information about the virus, and that their response had since become "tougher than others".

 

[Dingo]

"5 million left Wuhan before lockdown"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak
About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials warned the virus' ability to spread was getting stronger. There were about 9 million people remaining in the city after the lockdown, Zhou told a press conference.

If 5 million left and 9 million remained, that doesn't add up to 11 million. What was the traffic like?

China has some epic multi-day traffic jams as it is, I can only imagine how bad THAT one would be.

 

[Agent K]

China has some epic multi-day traffic jams as it is, I can only imagine how bad THAT one would be.

If there was an epic traffic jam out of Wuhan, I didn't hear about it.

 

[Stefan Leahu]

I came up as being too panicky, since unfortunately I sometimes blunder my way into statements like that. I know that it's extremely unlikely to be THE coronavirus, even if it might be already spreading in France.

I did however stock up for at least two weeks of lockdown, if the worst comes. This would be wise to do discreetly , before the madness starts and the shops are flooded by already contaminated people. Even with worst case fatality rates of 10% or more, it won't be a a life-threat to most, but many will get ill, the hospitals will get flooded and there'll be panic in the streets

 

[Agent K]

If a disease is deadly like Ebola, it's safe to assume that most people who catch it will end up in the hospital. But if it's more like the flu, then only a fraction of people who catch it will see a doctor for it.

Here's an example of mild cases. The bad news is that the virus was transmitted from person to person in Germany by an incubatory carrier. The good news is that the symptoms were mild.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany-idUSKBN1ZS10V
Four people in Bavaria who contracted coronavirus after a colleague from China visited their workplace were showing "very mild" symptoms, German Health Minister Jens Spahn said on Tuesday.
In one of the first known cases of person-to-person transmission outside China, a 33-year-old man apparently contracted the virus on Jan. 21 during a training session with a Chinese colleague, Bavarian officials said. The three other patients were being monitored in isolation at a clinic in Munich.
"The course of illness experienced by the four patients in Bavaria is very, very mild currently," Spahn told German broadcaster ZDF.

More details here

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany-idUSKBN1ZR057
The first person infected was 33 years old, lived in the district of Landsberg about 50 kilometres (31 miles) west of Munich and had come into contact with a Chinese lady on Jan. 21. Zapf said the Chinese woman was from Shanghai but her parents, who are from the Wuhan region, had visited her a few days earlier. He added that she had arrived in Germany on Jan. 19, appearing not to have any symptoms, but began to feel ill on her flight home on Jan. 23. She sought medical treatment after landing and tested positive for coronavirus. When that information was relayed back to the German company, a male employee said he felt like he had flu over the weekend and was on Monday advised to get medical treatment.

 

[Alexandria Nick]

"5 million left Wuhan before lockdown"

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak
About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials warned the virus' ability to spread was getting stronger. There were about 9 million people remaining in the city after the lockdown, Zhou told a press conference.

If 5 million left and 9 million remained, that doesn't add up to 11 million. What was the traffic like?

A difference in the "city" and the "urban" population. The China Statistical Yearbook lists the 2010 population of the Wuhan urban area as 12.6 million. A decade of growth could get you 14 million people easily. Plus, even in 2010, the functional urban area was listed at 19 million.

 

[Arugula]

The Lancet published a new study that paints a pretty grim picture of what is happening at the Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 - Jan 20. This is a small (biased) study, not a complete case fatality rate. Patients with less severe symptoms might not have been admitted to the hospital.

According to the study: 23% of patients are admitted to intensive care, 17% of progressing rapidly to ARDS, 4% septic shock, and 11% mortality rate caused by multiple organ failure within 3-10 days.

It is important to note that 50% of the patients admitted had preexisting chronic diseases when they were admitted. (such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, endocrine system disease, digestive system disease, respiratory system disease, malignant tumour, and nervous system disease)

On the bright side 31% of patients admitted were discharged during this period, and I would imagine that number will continue to rise in future studies. (The SARS outbreak had patients in the hospital average of ~3 weeks)

Findings
Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure.

Interpretation
The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.

Source: https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf



For some perspective, these preliminary numbers appear somewhat similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak, which has a case fatality rate of of 11%, with case fatality ratio between 0% to 50% depending on the age group of the patient:

• Less than 1 percent in persons 24 years or younger.
• Up to 6 percent in persons 25 to 44 years old.
• Up to 15 percent in persons 44 to 64 years old.
• Greater than 55 percent in persons aged 65 or older.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92458/

 

[Dingo]

There's some news stories promoting the theory that the coronavirus escaped from the Wuhan lab, and that its an outright bioweapon. This article includes a quote from an expert debunking it:
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...e/news-story/3e5a32fe77263fe8ca81b091cc8d9c42

But Prof Narang doubts the 2019-nCoV virus is an escaped bioweapon: "It would be a terrible bioweapon because of blowback. A good bioweapon, in theory, has high lethality but low, not high, communicability."

So basically you want your virus to kill off the people directly exposed but have a low ability to spread - that way you can say release it over enemy territory to kill them off, then invade without your own army dying.

That being said, that's looking at bioweapons from a 'traditional' perspective. If the aim is instead to cause fear, econonomic damage, etc. then the coronavirus could be considered an effective weapon - but again, its too virulent for a nation to really want to deploy. (Not to mention causing economic damage will also blow back on you).

The Lancet published a new study that paints a pretty grim picture of what is happening at the Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from Jan 1 - Jan 20. This is a small (biased) study, not a complete case fatality rate. Patients with less severe symptoms might not have been admitted to the hospital.

According to the study: 23% of patients are admitted to intensive care, 17% of progressing rapidly to ARDS, 4% septic shock, and 11% mortality rate caused by multiple organ failure within 3-10 days.

It is important to note that 50% of the patients admitted had preexisting chronic diseases when they were admitted. (such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, endocrine system disease, digestive system disease, respiratory system disease, malignant tumour, and nervous system disease)

On the bright side 31% of patients admitted were discharged during this period, and I would imagine that number will continue to rise in future studies. (The SARS outbreak had patients in the hospital average of ~3 weeks)

Findings
Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR. 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 [83%] patients), cough (81 [82%] patients), shortness of breath (31 [31%] patients), muscle ache (11 [11%] patients), confusion (nine [9%] patients), headache (eight [8%] patients), sore throat (five [5%] patients), rhinorrhoea (four [4%] patients), chest pain (two [2%] patients), diarrhoea (two [2%] patients), and nausea and vomiting (one [1%] patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity, and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure.

Interpretation
The 2019-nCoV infection was of clustering onset, is more likely to affect older males with comorbidities, and can result in severe and even fatal respiratory diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome. In general, characteristics of patients who died were in line with the MuLBSTA score, an early warning model for predicting mortality in viral pneumonia. Further investigation is needed to explore the applicability of the MuLBSTA score in predicting the risk of mortality in 2019-nCoV infection.

Source: https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf



For some perspective, these preliminary numbers appear somewhat similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak, which has a case fatality rate of of 11%, with case fatality ratio between 0% to 50% depending on the age group of the patient:

• Less than 1 percent in persons 24 years or younger.
• Up to 6 percent in persons 25 to 44 years old.
• Up to 15 percent in persons 44 to 64 years old.
• Greater than 55 percent in persons aged 65 or older.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92458/

Which matches the typical signature of flu, where the most at risk are the sick and the elderly.

As a side note to this coronavirus stuff, read up on Spanish Flu some time, it's fascinating (if horrifying) reading. In that case one of the factors that caused it to be so lethal was that healthy young people were more at risk, due to the infection triggering a cytokine storm response.

 

[Agent K]

I was thinking, which disease is scarier, disease X that infects 30% of the population and kills 10% of those infected, like the Spanish Flu, or disease Y that infects 3% of the population and kills 100% of them. The second one may seem scarier because it's incurable, yet the first one kills the same number of people but sickens ten times more.

 

[Stefan Leahu]

Nowadays, due to the panic, it's likely that it will be the most virulent one. In France, the medical system runs at something ike 80-100% most of the time. It won't take much for hospitals to get flooded with sick people. The hoarding will probably start as soon as the number of cases rises in the big cities, and that will also be a factor in spreading the disease.

 

[Agent K]

Nowadays, due to the panic, it's likely that it will be the most virulent one. In France, the medical system runs at something ike 80-100% most of the time. It won't take much for hospitals to get flooded with sick people. The hoarding will probably start as soon as the number of cases rises in the big cities, and that will also be a factor in spreading the disease.

How are you feeling? Hope you're getting better.

 

[Stefan Leahu]

Thanks . It's just the regular flu , apparently. Getting better already .No testing required since I didn't come in contact with people returning from China. In hindsight, it would be better to catch the coronavirus now before the hospitals are overwhelmed. That is, if immunity to this thing exists and you can't get it over and over again

 

[Arugula]

Oh no! That's unfortunate timing haha!

I was thinking, which disease is scarier, disease X that infects 30% of the population and kills 10% of those infected, like the Spanish Flu, or disease Y that infects 3% of the population and kills 100% of them. The second one may seem scarier because it's incurable, yet the first one kills the same number of people but sickens ten times more.

That's a good question. Both HIV/AIDS and Malaria are infectious diseases, Malaria having around 216 million new cases in subsaharan Africa each year, resulting in around 500,000 deaths (disease X), meanwhile there are roughly 23.8 million HIV-positive people in subsaharan Africa, and around 1 million die each year (disease Y). Both have around 100% fatality rate if left untreated or treated too late, so obviously both are a very scary thing to learn that you have.

Maybe there's a study out there comparing the public perception of them.

 

[deirdre]

or disease Y that infects 3% of the population and kills 100% of them.

it only infects 3% of the population because it is the scariest. the higher the mortality rate the more careful people are and the more militant Health Services, like the CDC, are in stopping the spread and isolating people asap.

It's just the regular flu , apparently. Getting better already

is there a coronavirus symptom that differentiates it from the flu?

 

[Mick West]

is there a coronavirus symptom that differentiates it from the flu?

More a lack of symptoms. It's mostly fever and cough. Then, at the end, shortness of breath. No sore throat, runny nose or aches.

 

[Alexandria Nick]

Oh no! That's unfortunate timing haha!



That's a good question. Both HIV/AIDS and Malaria are infectious diseases, Malaria having around 216 million new cases in subsaharan Africa each year, resulting in around 500,000 deaths (disease X), meanwhile there are roughly 23.8 million HIV-positive people in subsaharan Africa, and around 1 million die each year (disease Y). Both have around 100% fatality rate if left untreated or treated too late, so obviously both are a very scary thing to learn that you have.

Maybe there's a study out there comparing the public perception of them.

I think it has to do with your own agency and ability to defend yourself.

I'm a well off person, living in an affluent part of a major metro area. Malaria is wiped out here and I don't travel internationally to areas where it is not. There's zero risk for me to get malaria and, even if I somehow did, I have access to the resources to readily and effectively treat it. Similarly, I lead a lifestyle that functionally eliminates any possibility of acquiring HIV. The high rates of infection and death in the developing world are immaterial to me.

However, a disease like this here coronavirus is indiscriminate. It doesn't rely on transmission vectors or personal activities to spread. It isn't like flu either, where I can go get my shot. I am not insulated from transmission by anything but distance. The fear is then that the distance will be closed quickly (Dulles is only a few miles away and all it takes is one superspreader) and there's nothing I can do about it. While I don't travel to China, I work alongside people that do and have friends and family that do travel there and they also work alongside people that could potentially pick up the disease. Once it establishes itself, all I can really do is play the percentages. And I think that sort of thing scares people.

 

[Agent K]

More a lack of symptoms. It's mostly fever and cough. Then, at the end, shortness of breath. No sore throat, runny nose or aches.

CDC infographic
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/symptoms.html

 

[Leifer]

Hayman Capital Management founder and hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass recently twittered an accusation that two Chinese scientists often working in Canada, transported a Coronavirus out of Winnipeg's National Microbiology Lab (Canada) where they worked, and transferred (smuggled ?) the virus to China.

The words "spy team", are only suggested or supported by the Kyle Bass tweet......
Source: https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1221065421874397185

.
The story is labeled "fake"....because there is little or no supporting evidence.
The Canadian CBC media outlet labeled the story as "FAKE", and explained it online, as well as described in a video.

Yet, by the time the CBC responded to the accusations, the Kyle Bass story circulated and was shared +6000 times on Facebook on Monday Jan 27th 2020.
The story made it onto China's "TikTok" media app, where it was pushed more than 350,000 times...in a related video (source ?)
Here is "ground-zero" for Kyle Bass's theory, back in July 2019.... https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/mani...disease-lab-amid-rcmp-investigation-1.5211567

A researcher with ties to China was recently escorted out of the National Microbiology Lab (NML) in Winnipeg amid an RCMP investigation into what's being described as a possible "policy breach."
Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, her husband Keding Cheng and an unknown number of her students from China were removed from Canada's only level-4 lab on July 5, CBC News has learned.
A Level 4 virology facility is a lab equipped to work with the most serious and deadly human and animal diseases. That makes the Arlington Street lab one of only a handful in North America capable of handling pathogens requiring the highest level of containment, such as Ebola.
..................

Here is what I found so far....
(online print from Canada's CBC page).....
Online claims that Chinese scientists stole coronavirus from Winnipeg lab have 'no factual basis'

The Public Health Agency of Canada is denying any connection between the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, two scientists who were escorted out of the building last summer, and the coronavirus outbreak in China.
Baseless stories claiming that the two scientists are Chinese spies and that they smuggled the coronavirus to China's only Level 4 lab in Wuhan last year have been spreading on all major social media platforms and on conspiracy theorist blogs. One article from a conspiracy blog was shared more than 6,000 times on Facebook on Monday.

Here is the CBC video, denying Bass's accusations, and shows the Kyle Bass tweet.....and explains how and why "media panic" can be exploited to create new theories.


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5o8aO7e1tQ[/QUOTE]

 

[Stefan Leahu]

Those are apparently fake news, supposedly having already been debunked. Although I would not find it that unlikely that it has escaped from the P4 lab. Given the first cases were not connected to the seafood market, it might be a case of a scientist working there getting infected or carrying it on his clothes, who then gave it to a seafood vendor.

In rural France, we're already seeing scares, and unfortunately they don't seem ready for it. There was a group of 11 people who had a vacation in Thailand, from a village nearby (bad idea, but anyway). One of them developed a persistent cough, so she phoned the emergency service and explained the situation, and they told her it's probably nothing but she should go see a doctor. So she did, sitting in the waiting room with other patients etc. The doctor tried to reach the regional French CDC four times, but they were literally hanging up. So, they literally had to drive 60 miles to the ER in Nantes. Turned out she didn't have it, but the response was crap.

Now what matters is how fatal it is without medication and assistance. Even here , the hospitals will be overwhelmed in a few weeks. Many will have to ride it out at home.