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Flight MH370 Speculation

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Is it possible that whatever damaged the transponder and radio also damaged other instruments, those that told them their position, heading, altitude, etc. and they just didn't know where on earth they were or where they were headed. Well, they would have just used the numerous cellphones with GPS on the plane, I suppose. Maybe they thought they knew where they were flying to?
 
I think an easier way to solve the problem, and its more cost effective, is to install GPS in every plane so its course can be tracked from destination to destination, like the commercial trucking and bussing industry already does in the US.

GPS is already installed on airliners. GPS satellites are not capable of two-way communications. They are not communication satellites. They just broadcast a one-way signal in the blind from space down to earth. Read post #332 or this explanation from Garmin.

Planes can already be tracked from destination to destination using signals emitted from the plane (ACARS, ADS-B). However, in the case of MH-370 the plane stopped transmitting data. Similarly, you would loose track of a commercial truck, if the driver shuts off the tracking system.

Now, just to add another layer of complexity, the plane was also transmitting an hourly ping. This short transmission is not typically used for locating an aircraft. However, the technicians at Inmarsat, cleverly used these pings to estimate the plane's possible flight path.
 
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But it is possible, in a day an age where the NSA can quietly record every single piece of data in the world, I'm sure its just as easy to do the same with the airline industry.
Slightly hyperbolic no? Off topic and i think there is a thread on it but Mick calculated that getting all data recorded would require so many hard drives that you could pile them up and make another pyramid.

I think an easier way to solve the problem, and its more cost effective, is to install GPS in every plane so its course can be tracked from destination to destination, like the commercial trucking and bussing industry already does in the US.
/sigh That is what my link is.
 
I'm still puzzled by this whole Inmarsat business. Have they said anything about their pings matching anywhere from "All right, goodnight" to the end of this WNW detour, as I've not read about it.
Answering my own question: Inmarsat do have the ping data from pre-flight to last ping. Unfortunately, it raises yet more questions.

There is evidence of a partial handshake between the aircraft and ground station at 0019 UTC. At this time this transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work.

No response was received from the aircraft at 0115 UTC, when the ground earth station sent the next log on / log off message. This indicates that the aircraft was no longer logged on to the network.

Therefore, sometime between 0011 UTC and 0115 UTC the aircraft was no longer able to communicate with the ground station. This is consistent with the maximum endurance of the aircraft.
Content from External Source
 
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GPS is already installed on airliners. GPS satellites are not capable of two-way communications. They are not communication satellites. They just broadcast a one-way signal in the blind from space down to earth. Read post #332 or this explanation from Garmin.

Planes can already be tracked from destination to destination using signals emitted from the plane (ACARS, ADS-B). However, in the case of MH-370 the plane stopped transmitting data. Similarly, you would loose track of a commercial truck, if the driver shuts off the tracking system.

Now, just to add another layer of complexity, the plane was also transmitting an hourly ping. This short transmission is not typically used for locating an aircraft. However, the technicians at Inmarsat, cleverly used these pings to estimate the plane's possible flight path.
The key phrase being "estimate the plane's possible flight path."
 
I think an easier way to solve the problem, and its more cost effective, is to install GPS in every plane so its course can be tracked from destination to destination,

We have that now. It is called CDPLC and ADSB and they derive their positions of flight management computers hooked up to GPS receivers amongst other things They are used outside the range of SSR and transponders. It is how they found the crash site of AF447 five years ago.

All of it can be turned off however by a determined individual with the appropriate technical knowledge.

It was clear when there was no wreckage of Mh370 was found where it was supposedly flying that some sort of foul play had taken place. Whoever was flying this aircraft did not want it to be found. That makes it a very rare case with no precedent in heavy jet airline flying. The other examples of this, the perpetrators either did not care or wanted the crash to be broadcast on TV.

Barring some development of an autonomous part of the aircraft that can break away and float on impact and commence transmission, the world will be vulnerable to this sort of thing again. We just have to figure out how likely it is to happen again, what steps would be needed to always be able to track the aircraft despite efforts by a determined individual to stop that, and if it is worth it.
 
I find it slightly disturbing, that it appears some of the pilots that visit this site, would be so against some type of permanent, can't be witched off tracking system/transponder. Being able to know exactly where each airliner is at all times would be expensive, but it could be done.
 
As a tech, formerly an air comm/nav tech, I would be very against any device that has absolutely no means of being turned off. There is always the possibility of an electrical device breaking down in such a way as to overheat and begin smoking. Current protection devices sometimes do not protect against such things.
 
Are black boxes able to be turned off?

They have circuit breakers. However, actual location of the C/Bs may vary per airplane model and design. Still, the CVR (Voice Recorder) does have a C/B accessible for pilots (and maintenance) in the cockpit. It is a C/B that may be pulled as part of procedure after an incident when the recording is wished to be saved. (The CVR over-writes all recording, and only retains about the last two hours' worth. Only 30 minutes for older units, but most of those are retired from service, I'd imagine).
 
Some arithmetic I did if the flight computer thought North was South:

Beijing 39.9139 N, 116.3917E
Last transponder 6.9208N, 103.5786E

116.3917-103.5786=12.8131
103.5786-12.8131=90.7655

thus -39.9139,90.7655

I think, but I have no idea how these systems work or where they get what information from.
 
You're still in control, just don't get to take off speed. :) What good reason is there to turn it off in flight?

Adding.. just make it so there is control except beyond a certain airspeed or altitude.
This simply adds another mode for failure of the transponders. You now have the possibility that if there is a failure of the airspeed indication system its going to cause loss of transponders and therefore loss of SSR returns to ATC.
I have had many cars in my life. The one with the least number of problems was my 1966 Rambler American. Three-on-the-tree manual transmission, nonpowered drum brakes all around, nonpowered steering, crank windows, manual seat adjust, air conditioning was effected by opening the windows (ie.no a/c), no radio, no anti pollution systems, single barrel carburator , even the windshield wipers were run off engine vacuum not an electric motor.

Next car had power steering and power disc brakes. Guess what needed servicing? I have in later vehicles had power windows fail to operate, air conditioning stop working windshield wiper motors fail and fuel injection systems totally screw up.

Adding levels of complexity must be accompanied by definite requirement in an aircraft and there is no such requirement to have transponders be automatic.
Of course even if they were much of flight mh370 occurred over regions that do not have SSR coverage anyway and primary systems did track it while in their range.
 
This simply adds another mode for failure of the transponders. You now have the possibility that if there is a failure of the airspeed indication system its going to cause loss of transponders and therefore loss of SSR returns to ATC.
I have had many cars in my life. The one with the least number of problems was my 1966 Rambler American. Three-on-the-tree manual transmission, nonpowered drum brakes all around, nonpowered steering, crank windows, manual seat adjust, air conditioning was effected by opening the windows (ie.no a/c), no radio, no anti pollution systems, single barrel carburator , even the windshield wipers were run off engine vacuum not an electric motor.

Next car had power steering and power disc brakes. Guess what needed servicing? I have in later vehicles had power windows fail to operate, air conditioning stop working windshield wiper motors fail and fuel injection systems totally screw up.

Adding levels of complexity must be accompanied by definite requirement in an aircraft and there is no such requirement to have transponders be automatic.
Of course even if they were much of flight mh370 occurred over regions that do not have SSR coverage anyway and primary systems did track it while in their range.
It wouldn't be an easy thing to implement (not specific to the airspeed but just a general tracking) but to be honest, the repeated excuses for why it shouldn't, is disturbing.. but off topic.
 
Since this is the speculation thread:
After "good night" the cockpit is taken over by terrorists. There are two possibilities after that.
1) pilots are told what to do. Switch off transponders and ACARS, descend and turn WNW, then south. The target is in Australia in a 9/11esque attack. The pilots knowing this , decide to instead keep the track slightly west of Australia. There are no landmarks to give the ruse away to the terrorists. The aircraft runs out of fuel and crashes killing 239 people rather than possible thousands as per 9/11. Perhaps the crew had hoped along the way for a successful passenger revolt.

2) A terrorist crew is substituted for the original crew who are killed. The terrorists miss their Target, again Australia seems likely. They run out of fuel and crash. OR A successful passenger revolt occurs but no one knows how to turn things back on or navigate the aircraft, they run out of fuel and crash.
 
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It wouldn't be an easy thing to implement (not specific to the airspeed but just a general tracking) but to be honest, the repeated excuses for why it shouldn't, is disturbing.. but off topic.
Its already continuously tracked while within SSR coverage and it IS odd when that return disappears. The aircraft CAN now still be tracked by primary radars unless it descends below their coverage, which would likely also be below SSR coverage as well.
Having an automatic, uninterruptible system would have gained very little in this case.
 
Its already continuously tracked while within SSR coverage and it IS odd when that return disappears. The aircraft CAN now still be tracked by primary radars unless it descends below their coverage, which would likely also be below SSR coverage as well.
Having an automatic, uninterruptible system would have gained very little in this case.
With all the engineering that goes into building a modern airliner, I find it hard to believe that there can't be a better way of knowing (generally) where a plane is at all times. To imply that there will always be a risk of not knowing where a plane is at, is the disturbing part.
 
Since this is the speculation thread:
After "good night" the cockpit is taken over by terrorists. There are two possibilities after that.
1) pilots are told what to do. Switch off transponders and ACARS, descend and turn WNW, then south. The target is in Australia in a 9/11esque attack. The pilots knowing this , decide to instead keep the track slightly west of Australia. There are no landmarks to give the ruse away to the terrorists. The aircraft runs out of fuel and crashes killing 239 people rather than possible thousands as per 9/11. Perhaps the crew had hoped along the way for a successful passenger revolt.

2) A terrorist crew is substituted for the original crew who are killed. The terrorists miss their Target, again Australia seems likely. They run out of fuel and crash. OR A successful passenger revolt occurs but no one knows how to turn things back on or navigate the aircraft, they run out of fuel and crash.
No terrorist groups claimed responsibility and it would be very hard to hit a target at night. I'm leaning towards pilot suicide.
 
With all the engineering that goes into building a modern airliner, I find it hard to believe that there can't be a better way of knowing (generally) where a plane is at all times. To imply that there will always be a risk of not knowing where a plane is at, is the disturbing part.
Such a system would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be developed as a terrestrial system. That leaves out all terrestrial radars and must be a satellite system. Yes I see no engineering reason why this could not be built but it would be very expensive and, for whole plant coverage, require a lot of satellites. It would require at least one secure downlink site( and use satellite to satellite data relay). More likely it would send tracking data to ATC handling that aircraft.
However this is duplicating, for the most part, what ATC already has in the form of secondary radar.
 
Such a system would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be developed as a terrestrial system. That leaves out all terrestrial radars and must be a satellite system. Yes I see no engineering reason why this could not be built but it would be very expensive and, for whole plant coverage, require a lot of satellites. It would require at least one secure downlink site( and use satellite to satellite data relay). More likely it would send tracking data to ATC handling that aircraft.
However this is duplicating, for the most part, what ATC already has in the form of secondary radar.
Tell that to the families that don't know where their loved ones are.

Instead of 'this is why it can't/shouldn't be done' it should be 'this is how it could work'.
 
No terrorist groups claimed responsibility and it would be very hard to hit a target at night. I'm leaning towards pilot suicide.
What time would it have been when it arrived on target if that target was Perth , Australia?
Australia is still in Afghanistan, fought in both Gulf Wars and has been staunch supporter of the USA.
Sure no claim of responsibility but at first they'd be waiting for it to reach target not broadcasting that they'd hijacked an aircraft. Later, when its obvious that the mission was not successful they are better off waiting until the search and recovery is done as this forces a greater cost on all involved.
 
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Tell that to the families that don't know where their loved ones are.

Instead of 'this is why it can't/shouldn't be done' it should be 'this is how it could work'.
There are a lot of things in many different and diverse areas, that can, technically, be done but aren't due to the cost.
Its possible for instance to outfit all motor vehicles with the same life saving devices and systems present in a NASCAR vehicle and this would save thousands of lives yearly in just the USA alone.
It would also make vehicles probably 25-50% more costly.
 
How about a secret system that turns on only after everything else is switched off.
The hijacking transponder code used to be ' secret'. You can now find that on Wikipedia as well as how to change codes without momentarily switching through the number 7500.
Who would maintain a secret system? It would appear to every engineer as a non-approved addition.
 
What time would it have been when it arrived on target if that target was Perth , Australia?
Australia is still in Afghanistan, fought in both Gulf Wars and has been staunch supporter of the USA.
Sure no claim of responsibility but at first they'd be waiting for it to reach target not broadcasting that theydhijacked an aircraft. Later, when its obvious that the mission was not successful they are better off waiting until the search and recovery is done as this forces a greater cost on all involved.
What if they never find the plane, does the terrorist group never claim responsibility for making the plane disappear? Seems to me like a good time to claim and then poke a little fun that no one can find it. Just my opinion.
There are a lot of things in many different and diverse areas, that can, technically, be done but aren't due to the cost.
Its possible for instance to outfit all motor vehicles with the same life saving devices and systems present in a NASCAR vehicle and this would save thousands of lives yearly in just the USA alone.
It would also make vehicles probably 25-50% more costly.
I just read excuses. I am having a hard time grasping that anyone can be okay with the always and forever risk that a plane can just disappear.
 
Tell that to the families that don't know where their loved ones are.

They would still be dead though.

Useful though an uninterruptible full time satellite data tracking system would be, I'd prefer the money be spent on something that might actually save lives.

I wouldn't say I'm "okay" with the possibility of losing a plane - I'd much prefer that did not happen. I'm just not okay on spending vast amounts of money on something with relatively little utility.

As said before, why not spend it on making cars safer? You'd save a lot more lives. Why instead spend it on something that happens incredibly rarely, and in a way that would not actually help save lives.

You can always make things better and safer, but then there's always a point of diminishing returns.
 
What if they never find the plane, does the terrorist group never claim responsibility for making the plane disappear? Seems to me like a good time to claim and then poke a little fun that no one can find it. Just my opinion.
Yes, it remains to be seen. If its true there is no compelling reason to take credit any time soon.

I just read excuses. I am having a hard time grasping that anyone can be okay with the always and forever risk that a plane can just disappear.
Why not? Its been that way since the first aircraft capable of flying beyond the horizen. Radar wasn't invented until the 1940s. Secondary radar for civilian aircraft, the 1950s. Satellite communications began in the 1960s but could not be effectively used for such a system as you propose until quite recently.
AND
The most important issue, as always, who's going to pay for it? Like I said, I can easily envision it being possible but you will need cooperation from, at the very least, all G7 countries as well as all other developed nations of the world at a minimum. You require at least all national and all major air carriers to agree, and a formula by which all of these parties contribute money.
Eta: as Mick points out, it would not save any lives even in the very rare case of its utility.
 
They would still be dead though.

Useful though an uninterruptible full time satellite data tracking system would be, I'd prefer the money be spent on something that might actually save lives.

I wouldn't say I'm "okay" with the possibility of losing a plane - I'd much prefer that did not happen. I'm just not okay on spending vast amounts of money on something with relatively little utility.

As said before, why not spend it on making cars safer? You'd save a lot more lives. Why instead spend it on something that happens incredibly rarely, and in a way that would not actually help save lives.

You can always make things better and safer, but then there's always a point of diminishing returns.
Have you calculated the cost of implemented a system like this? Seems you are assuming this would cost more than it is worth when nothing has even been proposed.

A way to say this is where the plane is, at all times and nothing more is not that much to ask for IMO.
 
Yes, it remains to be seen. If its true there is no compelling reason to take credit any time soon.
No reason not to either. Like I said what if they never find the plane, do they never claim? How long do they wait to claim if they don't find it?


The most important issue, as always, who's going to pay for it?
I would be happy to pay a little more on my flight to ensure my loved ones will know where the hell I am if something goes wrong. Guess you're not?
 
No reason not to either. Like I said what if they never find the plane, do they never claim? How long do they wait if they don't find it?
I don't know. I didn't do it.

I would be happy to pay a little more on my flight to ensure my loved ones will know where the hell I am if something goes wrong. Guess you're not?

This would cost about the same as it did to put the GPS satellite system in place, and take a similar time to do so. The first GPS sat went up in 1978. That was a military endevour. The system later was allowed for civilian use but even at an accelerated rate its going to take no less than a decade to be in place and cost billions, quite easily a trillion dollars from design to implementation.
All for the rare incidence of finding out where an airliner went when other avenues of doing exactly that fail? Good luck convincing the parties involved. Its not up to me but personally I see a vanishingly small return for a stupendous outlay of money.
 
I don't know. I didn't do it.



This would cost about the same as it did to put the GPS satellite system in place, and take a similar time to do so. The first GPS sat went up in 1978. That was a military endevour. The system later was allowed for civilian use but even at an accelerated rate its going to take no less than a decade to be in place and cost billions, quite easily a trillion dollars from design to implementation.
All for the rare incidence of finding out where an airliner went when other avenues of doing exactly that fail? Good luck convincing the parties involved. Its not up to me but personally I see a vanishingly small return for a stupendous outlay of money.
So what your saying is to use GPS to track planes at all times we need to launch a whole new set of GPS satellites instead of just using the existing ones?
 
I think some are conflating the suggestions I made with directly downloading all flight data and just being able to track a planes position. I get that the former would cost a lot. The latter would cost a lot less and is what I have been talking about for the past few posts. A system like ones used in truck fleets.
http://www.fleetmatics.com/truck-tracking

Give a planes position at all times and make it so it can't be switched off. Not impossible and to suggest it is, is the disturbing part.
 
From wiki
After Korean Air Lines Flight 007, a Boeing747 carrying 269 people, was shot down in 1983 after straying into the USSR's prohibited airspace,[22] in the vicinity of Sakhalin andMoneron Islands, President Ronald Reagan issued a directive making GPS freely available for civilian use, once it was sufficiently developed, as a common good.[23] The first satellite was launched in 1989, and the 24th satellite was launched in 1994. The GPS program cost at this point, not including the cost of the user equipment, but including the costs of the satellite launches, has been estimated to be about USD$5 billion (then-year dollars).
Average cost of a new car in 1994 was $12500.

In 2013 its was $30750
 
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So what your saying is to use GPS to track planes at all times we need to launch a whole new set of GPS satellites instead of just using the existing ones?
Yes, GPS satellites do not and cannot receive signals from the receivers on aircraft. It would require a complete rebuild of the entire GPS fleet of satellites to enable them to relay the incredible amount of data this would require.
 
Not impossible and to suggest it is, is the disturbing part.
Why?
Either there is a different opinion based on knowledge and experience you don't have, or your suggestion is being 'shilled' against by the posters here for nefarious reasons. Take the simpler option.
 
I would be happy to pay a little more on my flight to ensure my loved ones will know where the hell I am if something goes wrong. Guess you're not?
I would stand in more lines too to make sure im not getting on a flight with a terrorist with a fake passport that was laid over from a lax country. this whole situation is ridiculous.
 
Why?
or your suggestion is being 'shilled' against by the posters here for nefarious reasons.
I find this just as disturbing since I never said anything of the such nor did I imply it. Making excuses for why a plane can't always be tracked is disturbing.
 
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