I've set up a 2D mass-spring model in Fydik2D which is a fully elastic ideal truss-like structure, fixed at the bottom, with a follower force applied to the top left corner. This is the system at the initial time:
Rather thick, not like the thin rod you depict, and certainly not representative of a homogenous solid. All the same suitable for demonstrating some real-world deviations from the grossly simplified model.
First, though, let's keep this on topic in case your query is more a help-with-homework situation (in which case I'd advise you to hit one of the many engineering forums dedicated to FEA advice). We got to this point in the discussion by way of a referenced analysis which predicted a large resistive force in the collapse process. This analysis depends on findings of one of the authors' FEA work. There are a number of good reasons why it's unrealistic to expect these FEAs to be valid for the circumstances of the actual collapse, but there's a specific problem which renders the simulations entirely invalid over the latter stages of column deformation, and that is excessive ductility.
If fracture of members is not accounted for realistically, the estimate of force can be many times greater than should be expected and therefore the descent of the upper portion will be calculated to be much slower than actual, perhaps even arresting. That was the situation here, and the discussion then veered towards deciding how susceptible to fracture the load bearing members were. I offered the graphic ring as a rough rule of thumb as to how tightly a solid cross section could bend before the onset of fracture, and it turned out to do reasonably well when compared to actual steel recovered from the site.
Now, back to the diversion: What happens when the above mass-spring system simulation is run until static equlibrium is achieved (it's highly damped)?
Not a perfect half-circle by any means, and there are a number of reasons why. Aside from that, it's pretty obvious that the structure has exceeded 20% elongation on the stretching side, so would've likely fractured, excluding any time-dependent material properties under deformation.