What evidence of aliens would convince skeptics?

... This is also why military reports are taken much more seriously, it seems unlikely the military have an interest in creating fakes. Not impossible (if it leads to more funding, or individual service members might be craving attention at the risk of their career) but at least a whole lot less likely than a post by /u/aliensarereal148579 looking for upvotes.
The military are people... like people who make up stuff in the civilian world. I take the military reports of fantastic maneuvers and out of this world performance with the same skepticism as all reports. Where is the proof, data, facts, etc.

The military is not special... but... maybe "we " are (were)
1653421519516.png
 
The military are people... like people who make up stuff in the civilian world. I take the military reports of fantastic maneuvers and out of this world performance with the same skepticism as all reports. Where is the proof, data, facts, etc.

The military is not special... but... maybe "we " are (were)

Over my years in the Army, I've noticed that probably about a quarter of the people I served with believed in UFOs, as in alien visitors. That's just based on my own experience in the units and bases I've been in, so I'm not saying it's true for the whole military.

Most of these people were lower enlisted who did one hitch and got out, but there were a few officers and senior NCOs who kept up with UFO news, too.

The way I see it, people tend to find what they're already looking for. If someone's into UFOs and sees something strange they can't explain, the story often grows into an alien encounter, like what happened with the Nimitz incident.

So I agree, just being in the military doesn't automatically make someone's sighting or opinion more credible. People make lousy witnesses, and they usually see what their worldview tells them to see. Back in the day, it might've been angels, demons, or saints. Now it's UFOs and alien visitors.
 
I completely agree with you Rocky, but I think what's happened is the UFO crowd has caught on and now claims everything they have is "extraordinary", even though you and I would not think so.

The trailer for the movie A Tear in the Sky which Mick posted about today on Metabunk, has several talking heads saying "crazy!", "insane!" and I thought "extraordinary" (but I will have to go back and watch again). Like most of the UFOlogists, at least in the trailer, they seem to think any strange thing on a screen is "extraordinary" and therefore the proof skeptics ask for.

I agree that just because someone says their evidence is "extraordinary" doesn't mean it is, but I think they have managed to water the word down.

If you're looking for hard, skeptical analysis, this probably isn't it. It tends to focus more on mystery and possibility rather than debunking or strict scientific skepticism. So, if you're tired of the usual "alien visitation" angle with dramatic footage and emotional testimonies, this might feel like more of the same UFO "BS"
 
If you're looking for hard, skeptical analysis, this probably isn't it. It tends to focus more on mystery and possibility rather than debunking or strict scientific skepticism. So, if you're tired of the usual "alien visitation" angle with dramatic footage and emotional testimonies, this might feel like more of the same UFO "BS"

Agreed.

I meant it as the example of the usual hyperbole that accompanies UFO claims. While that film was as you described, just another example of pushing "mystery and possibility" as something more than it is, complete with an aging T.J. Hooker for gravitas, it was anchored around some very serious UFO guys.

The main focus of the film was the UAPx guys, which get discussed in detail in the latter parts of our thread on the film. Some UAPx guys tried to distance themselves from the film, but like a lot of UFOlogy, they were relying on hype, regardless of how serious they were. The film maker they chose to work with was a regular on Ancient Aliens with a heavy New Age background. Link below to our thread on the film and more importantly, all the data gathered by UAPx and their paper about it.

As for the topic of this particular thread, the film did show a classic example of how believers and skeptics look at the same evidence and why we often don't see eye to eye. In the film, an anomalous shifting cloud of something is captured on film:

1755275090237.png
1755275111951.png


The film, produced by a believer and geared towards a believing audience goes straight to UFO/paranormal and I would argue hyped up, conclusion that they were witnessing a "worm hole". A possible portal for UFOs off the cost of Los Angles. I'll note, a number of the more serious PhD level members of the UAPx team defended this idea, at least for a while.

Having clearly captured a worm hole on video, the believers now become upset that the skeptics reject this obvious evidence.

The skeptic however looks at something like this and starts with "what prosaic thing could this be, before assuming it's a worm hole". It's a totally different mindset. In this case, we know birds exists, while worm holes are theoretical. We know some birds flock together in groups and that there is a large number of flocking type sea birds in the coastal areas of Southern California. It kinda looks like a flock of birds, something we understand, while we have no idea what a worm hole would look like. As skeptics, we settle on it probably being a flock of birds rather than a worm hole. To the consternation of the believers that see a worm hole.

Thread on the film and UAPx:

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/a-tear-in-the-sky-nimitz-tic-tac-catalina-ufo-documentary.12367/
 
The military are people... like people who make up stuff in the civilian world. I take the military reports of fantastic maneuvers and out of this world performance with the same skepticism as all reports. Where is the proof, data, facts, etc.

The military is not special... but... maybe "we " are (were)View attachment 51546
I don't remember such bold warning signs on the sides of cars that the general public drive. Maybe the military are more stupid than the general public if they need to be reminded of how to do their day-job every time they begin?
 
I don't remember such bold warning signs on the sides of cars that the general public drive. Maybe the military are more stupid than the general public if they need to be reminded of how to do their day-job every time they begin?
Context: In the case of the attached photo, the instructions are there to allow untrained or non-aviation personnel to extract an injured pilot in an emergency that might take place anywhere on the planet, not just at an airbase. Think Podunk, Idaho volunteer fire department.
 
Context: In the case of the attached photo, the instructions are there to allow untrained or non-aviation personnel to extract an injured pilot in an emergency that might take place anywhere on the planet, not just at an airbase. Think Podunk, Idaho volunteer fire department.

Nice that the people in the foreign countries you're running military operations in speak english, and are willing to "Service this aircraft" for you after they've shot it down.
 
The film, produced by a believer and geared towards a believing audience goes straight to UFO/paranormal and I would argue hyped up, conclusion that they were witnessing a "worm hole". A possible portal for UFOs off the cost of Los Angles. I'll note, a number of the more serious PhD level members of the UAPx team defended this idea, at least for a while.
It would be interesting if they had first been asked "What does a wormhole look like and how can we recognize it if we see it?" A sci-fi type of swirly cloud? An actual hole through which you can look? A place where objects get fuzzy and start to disappear? I'd be willing to bet that "A distant flock of birds in the sky" would not be one of their answers...
 
I'll note, a number of the more serious PhD level members of the UAPx team defended this idea, at least for a while.

As I can't edit anymore, I'll note my statement above may be a bit incorrect. I'd have to go through the film thread again, but more accurately one of the UAPx physicists made a number of arguments saying these were NOT birds. I don't remember if he endorsed the worm hole idea, but he did try to maintain that this likely flock of birds was anomalous.
 
Assuming Mick is skeptic in chief, I asked him some time ago on this forum what would be convincing to him; if I remember correctly, he responded that he would need unambiguous data and tracking from three different positions simultaneously, of an object behaving anomalously.
My position on skeptics has changed over time. I now support skeptics and Metabunk in particular, and I'm thankful for the due diligence and time folks take to strip away the nonsense. If the UFO community wants skeptics to "believe", then evidence that will satisfy Metabunk-level skepticism, must be provided. You hold the line here on Metabunk with rigorous skepticism, and I think that is the way to go. All of that said, I think the evidence exists, and it will eventually come out. If and when it does, there would be no shame in having held the line for science.
 
My position on skeptics has changed over time. I now support skeptics and Metabunk in particular, and I'm thankful for the due diligence and time folks take to strip away the nonsense. If the UFO community wants skeptics to "believe", then evidence that will satisfy Metabunk-level skepticism, must be provided. You hold the line here on Metabunk with rigorous skepticism, and I think that is the way to go. All of that said, I think the evidence exists, and it will eventually come out. If and when it does, there would be no shame in having held the line for science.
I agree with most of this. But you end with admitting that you believe in the existence of something for which there is no good evidence presented. I understand, there is never going to be a time that all of the information is available to all of the people all of the time, so I hate to see people live in the vain hope of an unattainable dream. The time for people to believe in something is AFTER the evidence is shown.
 
All of that said, I think the evidence exists, and it will eventually come out. If and when it does, there would be no shame in having held the line for science.
Not attacking you, genuinely curious! What makes you think the evidence does exist, but is seemingly hidden? Would you say that's more a faith or desire based position? Like you really want it to be true, but think the skeptics case is better currently?

While I don't agree with the first half of the quoted, I do love "there would be no shame in having held the line for science." I completely agree.
 
Not attacking you, genuinely curious! What makes you think the evidence does exist, but is seemingly hidden? Would you say that's more a faith or desire based position? Like you really want it to be true, but think the skeptics case is better currently?

While I don't agree with the first half of the quoted, I do love "there would be no shame in having held the line for science." I completely agree.
I've had two personal experiences with UFOs; I've also interviewed and talked to many other people who have experienced them. As far as more evidence? Well, there are images etc. that are not being released for one reason or the other. Looking at the history of the phenomenon, many people have had experiences nearly identical to mine. If I had what I have seen on film, we'd be having a different conversation, now. So, I think it is a matter of time before that happens.
As skeptics, If you believe there has been a UFO echo chamber that one can trace back to Harry Reid and Bigelow and a number of fringe scientists that has spread to members of the government and individuals with high clearances --Wow! what a persistent sociological and psychological phenomenon.
 
Last edited:
I've had two personal experiences with UFOs; I've also interviewed and talked to many other people who have experienced them. As far as more evidence? Well, there are images etc. that are not being released for one reason or the other.
Consider that if the alleged image has not been released what you actually have is a story about an image that may or may not exist.
 
Consider that if the alleged image has not been released what you actually have is a story about an image that may or may not exist.
That's true, but some claim to have seen them, know they exist. It has been claimed that releasing some could damage national security, compromising our methods, iirc. If they exist, I'd like to see them.
 
So, I think it is a matter of time before that happens.
It would be great -- but I come down on the other side: it's been almost 80 years since the first "flying saucer" report, that seems like a lot of time, more than plenty for anything to be disclosed, if there was anything to be disclosed. There have been so many studies and reports. And still nothing approaching proof that there is even a singular phenomenon to be considered (that is, that "UFOs" being a single sort of thing that is unknown and available for study) , much less that the nature of such a phenomenon is related to aliens.

Not arguing about what YOU should think, just explaining what I think.
 
It would be great -- but I come down on the other side: it's been almost 80 years since the first "flying saucer" report, that seems like a lot of time, more than plenty for anything to be disclosed, if there was anything to be disclosed.

And let's remember that some of the current disclosure people, Grush and his sources in particular, have pushed that 80 year mark back to 92 years with the 1933 Italian UFO as well as suggesting the Teddy Roosevelt administration may have been involved with crashed UFOs. So well over 120 years of government cover ups across dozens of administrations.
 
And let's remember that some of the current disclosure people, Grush and his sources in particular, have pushed that 80 year mark back to 92 years with the 1933 Italian UFO as well as suggesting the Teddy Roosevelt administration may have been involved with crashed UFOs. So well over 120 years of government cover ups across dozens of administrations.
I understand all of the arguments; no clear images with all of the cell phones, etc., and how could there be a coverup for so long. All good points that skeptics make, and I am not sure I have answers for all of those points. I'm glad that you folks are skeptical and holding the line; I also am sure that many of you would be very happy and fascinated if something truly anomalous came your way. So, I see you all as the real UFO investigators; not folks that confabulate silly nonsense. So we'll see.
 
Gotta go Google "Teddy Roosevelt crashed UFOs" i seem to have missed that one.

To be fair, it was a vague comment by Grusch. He didn't mention Teddy by name as I remember, but he inferred cover ups and retrieved UFO near the turn of the century. The 19th century.
 
As skeptics, If you believe there has been a UFO echo chamber that one can trace back to Harry Reid and Bigelow and a number of fringe scientists that has spread to members of the government and individuals with high clearances --Wow! what a persistent sociological and psychological phenomenon.
Not sociological and psychological - completely physical. It's been filmed and broadcast on television, documented and entered into official archives. And those primary sources have been catalogued by skeptics and believers alike into many secondary sources.
 
Last edited:
Not sociological and psychological - completely physical. It's been filmed and broadcast on television, documented and entered into official archives. And those primary sources have been catalogued by skeptics and believers alike into many secondary sources.
There's a good anthropology joke somewhere in here.

On a serious note though there are elements you could look at it from all 3 angles. Although spawning off from the anthropological joke, most of the sociology and psychology supporting narrative and things like integrated multidisciplinary views on influence tend to focus on the "now". There was some great work on the memetics (not internet memes) around the mid-2000s to the early 2010s that gets misreferenced some now, otherwise though there is a great lack of that historical and cultural end that also focuses on the physical (or cultural artifact/materials in anthro speak). Most of what happens focuses on the 'now' or rudimentary historical research to back short references in case studies for conceptual theories. There definitely is much more room for attention on how that 'physical' end has impacted the dynamics and narratives overall.
Although to the post you quoted, definitely goes back much further than Reid/BAASS/late 1990s-early 2000s era. Taking the above into account we have many more decades to look back on before then.
 
Last edited:
Well, other folks saw the same thing shortly after, descriptions exactly fitting mine.
Please remember, "saw the same thing" applies just as well to natural earthly objects or phenomena as it does to alien or supernatural ones. And as you say, "personal experiences can be based on reality". The fact that others witnessed it strongly suggests that it was a real thing rather than a glitch in your own mind; so far, so good.

Not knowing exactly WHAT you saw just means it was "unidentified by you at that time", that's all. But since we know that natural events happen all the time yet there has never been any verifiable evidence of extraterrestrial visitors or supernatural events, I know where I'd choose to look for the explanation.
 
That's true, but some claim to have seen them, know they exist.

They claim to have seen them, and ask us to believe that what they are saying is not only true but also a correct description of what they saw,
i.e. their recall is accurate, they have good reason to believe that the photo is what they think it is (and they have the appropriate knowledge and, in this context, security clearance to make that conclusion about that photo), and the picture was not e.g. connected with the "Yankee Blue" hazing practices.

I'd guess many of us have had the uncomfortable experience of finding out that something we believed to be true was incorrect, or being told/ taught something that we later find is inaccurate, or realising our recall/ interpretation of a particular scene or event was flawed.

We know there are lots of faked photos of "UFOs", and (increasingly) lots of short phone cam clips of UFOs/ mystery drones etc. that in many cases are clearly of everyday aircraft doing everyday aircraft things, displaying the expected (and mandated) lights
(see "Drones over New Jersey" and "Watching a mass hysteria thread in real time..." threads).
There is currently no testable, convincing evidence of Earth ever having been visited by ETI. There is currently no testable, convincing evidence of extraterrestrial life of any sort (although searches for biosignatures from exoplanet atmospheres might change this in the near future).
IIRC (can't give a ref., sorry) radar returns of UFOs became less common after digital filters were introduced even though radar coverage has increased around the world.

There are some reports of sightings of unambiguously structured anomalous craft, and some reports of interaction with these craft or their occupants. And there are many accounts of personal interaction with figures known from religious texts, often from people known for their honesty, sobriety and decency. I don't think either category of experience should be ridiculed (unless the claimant advocates dangerous, self-serving or sectarian behaviour as a result, in which case, fair game).
-Most "UFO" reports don't come into this category, being reports of unidentified lights/ objects in the sky, often resulting from misidentification of conventional aircraft, satellites etc. and a host of other mundane causes (albeit sometimes in unusual or unfamiliar viewing conditions).

Historically, some of the most detailed and unambiguous accounts of sightings/ interactions with UFOs have been shown to be hoaxes- to put it bluntly, the claimant was lying, sometimes over several years and to their close confidantes (think George Adamski, Billy Meier).
Many of the key players in the current UFO field (e.g. Elizondo, Coulthart, Grusch) show that they are willing to accept unsupported anecdotes with apparently great confidence, and with a complete lack of scientific- or even journalistic- rigour. Elizondo has been quick to present "evidence" even when it is, frankly, risible- see the Elizondo's Romanian Non-Human Mothership Photo [Reflection of a Light Fixture] thread.
At no point did it seem to occur to him that a huge, brightly-lit UFO in clear view over a city in Romania, in daylight, would be witnessed (and presumably filmed) by many, many people, and it would not be possible to suppress the story. An absence, in this instance, of common sense.

Some other highly-detailed accounts are also of high strangeness. I suspect that they might (initially, at least) have started off as retellings of genuine- but highly subjective- experiences. Barney and Betty Hill's "encounter" might be one. Books by UFO enthusiasts are almost always highly selective about what parts of the Hill's narrative they use: No mention of the smiling redheaded Irishman and the German Nazi with a black coat and scarf looking out from the UFO (often much is made of Barney's recall, and distress at recalling, the Nazi's strange eyes- it's just never mentioned that they belong to a scarf-wearing Nazi). -No mention of how Barney knows the red-haired man is Irish (Barney explains why he's surprised that the man looks friendly, strongly indicating a strong subconscious influence on his recall). Rarely is it mentioned that Betty later stated that the "aliens"- often conflated with "Grays" by UFO enthusiasts- looked most like pictures she'd seen of a Mongolian woman, and/ or native people of Tierra Del Fuego (see evidence for the Hills not describing "Grays" in this post).

In passing, many popular accounts of Kenneth Arnold's 1947 sighting- often taken as the first modern UFO report- don't add
External Quote:
...that Mr. Arnold has reported seeing these same strange objects in the sky on three other occasions.
"Transcript of Ed Murrow-Kenneth Arnold Telephone Conversation", February-March 1984 CUFOS Associate Newsletter
https://www.project1947.com/fig/kamurrow.htm; CUFOS = J. Allen Hynek's Center for UFO studies (Wikipedia).
Those who advocate for the reality of the Hill's accounts, and the reliability of Arnold's, are often very reluctant to share- or even look into- what else those people have reported, if it stretches their credibility. The "UFOs are alien spacecraft" narrative must be preserved, even if that means deliberately ignoring inconvenient statements from the original sources of that narrative.

The
Alien DNA after sexual encounter
"incident" (Thread here) is another high strangeness event; the experiencer appears to have (or have had) a sleep disorder, perhaps of the type long-associated with perceptions of mythological incubi / succubi (Wikipedia Sleep paralysis, also Succubus).
There is evidence that (rarely) some other high strangeness accounts, firmly believed by the experiencer, might have a neurological basis.

We have no evidence that ETI flying vehicles, if they exist, are disc shaped, and there is no reason (that we currently know of) why they should be.
Human attempts at disc-shaped crewed aircraft have largely foundered; they might look nice but they're aerodynamically inferior to conventional planforms.
But there are threads on this forum describing an old wildlife water guzzler and a crop irrigation circle eagerly seized on as possible alien spacecraft
(see Claim: Crashed Disc - Sierra Ladrones, NM [Rainwater Catchment - Removed] and Four Corners - Large Disk Seen From Private Plane at FL210 [Irrigation Circles] respectively) because they were round, seen from the air and UFO enthusiasts didn't know what they were.

What on Earth (excuse the pun) is the logic behind that? Humans have built round structures for thousands of years.
Yet amongst some UFO enthusiasts, "circular" + "I don't immediately know what it is" = "possible alien spacecraft".
Because, er, "Flying Saucers":
External Quote:

MURROW: Here's how the name "flying saucer" was born.
ARNOLD: These objects more or less fluttered like they were, oh, I'd say, boats on very rough water or very rough air of some type, and when I described how they flew, I said that they flew like they take a saucer and throw it across the water. Most of the newspapers misunderstood and misquoted that too. They said that I said that they were saucer-like; I said that they flew in a saucer-like fashion.
MURROW: That was an historic misquote. While Mr. Arnold's original explanation has been forgotten, the term "flying saucer" has become a household word.
Kenneth Arnold, the reporting of whose 1947 sighting gave rise to the term "flying saucer", quoted in the February-March 1984 CUFOS Associate Newsletter, link above, also "The Man Who Introduced the World to Flying Saucers", The Atlantic, Megan Garber, 15 June 2014

This is what Arnold claimed he saw, early sketch (L), later picture of Arnold with an artist's impression (R) (he claimed there were two types).
kenneth arnold sketch of not a saucer.jpg
kenneth.jpg


However, long before the idea that UFOs were "a thing" and that they might be alien craft became widespread, the American public were familiar with space-faring flying discs. They had been visible on magazine stands across the nation for years.

1. November 1929.jpg
2. Winter 1930.jpg
3. Nov. unk. year., pre-1931 ('SWS' merged with Air Wonder Stories to produce Wonder Stories, ...jpg

4. July unk. Yr., NB ''Gernsback Publication'', pre-1937.JPG
5. May 1940.jpg


Magazines (L-R) from November 1929; winter 1930; pre-1931 (Science Wonder Stories merged with Air Wonder Stories to produce Wonder Stories in 1930); pre-1937 (not clearly visible here but cover states editor is Hugo Gernsback who ceased being editor in Feb 1936); May 1940.
So Americans knew about flying saucers for at least 17 years before anyone suggested they were real.

What evidence of aliens would convince me?
If a broad range of major Western news outlets carried the story as the leading item, covered by identifiable, broadly respected broadcasters/ journalists and with opinion sought from a large number of senior, relevant scientists from different universities, government agencies etc. who concur "that this is for real".
An internally consistent narrative describing what has been found, by whom, and how; and why the evidence is understood to be persuasive.
Statements from heads of state/ heads of government in the following days.
In the case of some public service broadcasters, changes in schedule for programs about the message, discovery or whatever, featuring respected scientists invited to contribute because of their expertise in their field, not their media savvy or telegenic qualities.

Not one radio signal possibly , but not definitely, of ETI origin (which probably wouldn't trigger the above responses).
And in the absence of "red flags"- no signs of suppression of contrary academic opinion, no recent imposition of authoritarian government in the nations concerned, no suspicion of widespread hacking of, or other interference with, broadcast media signals. Not the first day of WW3.
Not internet only.
To paraphrase Gil Scott-Heron, the revelation will be televised.

It has been claimed that releasing some [claimed images of ETI craft] could damage national security, compromising our methods, iirc.
If the (e.g. US) government had such photos/ footage/ radar findings, and wanted to reveal the discovery of ETI, it could release copies of the images/ data in a manner that does not give clear indications of the performance of the technology used. Or show the evidence to a panel of security-cleared scientists (if they hadn't done so already) and perhaps other respected folk and ask them to draft a statement describing what had been found without compromising security.

The findings from photos taken by U2 flights over Cuba in 1962 were made public. I'd guess the capabilities of the systems used were not.
External Quote:
In France on 23 October, the crisis made the front page of all the daily newspapers. The next day, an editorial in Le Monde expressed doubt about the authenticity of the CIA's photographic evidence. Two days later, after a visit by a high-ranking CIA agent, the newspaper accepted the validity of the photographs.
Wikipedia, Cuban Missile Crisis.

A "they want to reveal but can't" theory is really just a softer version of the establishment cover-up conspiracy theory.
It has some of the same problems: It requires a cohort of personnel, presumably over many years, who know of this supposedly unambiguous evidence. At least some would understand its wider significance for humanity. But all remain loyal, excepting a handful feeling the need to tell some members of "the UFO community" (not appropriate academics or a respected press outlet). Despite this unprecedented level of secrecy and the evident success in maintaining it, where there are leaks, no-one is punished. There are no investigations, even though it is axiomatic to this theory that a reveal could compromise national security.
As the years passed, it would seem sensible to review the evidence using newer technologies, or perhaps involve different scientists/ engineers.
Just keeping the evidence totally under wraps after it was found in 1947, 1966, 1979 or whatever doesn't make much sense.
The technology used to obtain the photos would become obsolescent over time, and any dodgy circumstances in which the photos were obtained, less politically "hot".
 
Last edited:
They claim to have seen them, and ask us to believe that what they are saying is not only true but also a correct description of what they saw,
i.e. their recall is accurate, they have good reason to believe that the photo is what they think it is (and they have the appropriate knowledge and, in this context, security clearance to make that conclusion about that photo), and the picture was not e.g. connected with the "Yankee Blue" hazing practices.

I'd guess many of us have had the uncomfortable experience of finding out that something we believed to be true was incorrect, or being told/ taught something that we later find is inaccurate, or realising our recall/ interpretation of a particular scene or event was flawed.

We know there are lots of faked photos of "UFOs", and (increasingly) lots of short phone cam clips of UFOs/ mystery drones etc. that in many cases are clearly of everyday aircraft doing everyday aircraft things, displaying the expected (and mandated) lights
(see "Drones over New Jersey" and "Watching a mass hysteria thread in real time..." threads).
There is currently no testable, convincing evidence of Earth ever having been visited by ETI. There is currently no testable, convincing evidence of extraterrestrial life of any sort (although searches for biosignatures from exoplanet atmospheres might change this in the near future).
IIRC (can't give a ref., sorry) radar returns of UFOs became less common after digital filters were introduced even though radar coverage has increased around the world.

There are some reports of sightings of unambiguously structured anomalous craft, and some reports of interaction with these craft or their occupants. And there are many accounts of personal interaction with figures known from religious texts, often from people known for their honesty, sobriety and decency. I don't think either category of experience should be ridiculed (unless the claimant advocates dangerous, self-serving or sectarian behaviour as a result, in which case, fair game).
-Most "UFO" reports don't come into this category, being reports of unidentified lights/ objects in the sky, often resulting from misidentification of conventional aircraft, satellites etc. and a host of other mundane causes (albeit sometimes in unusual or unfamiliar viewing conditions).

Historically, some of the most detailed and unambiguous accounts of sightings/ interactions with UFOs have been shown to be hoaxes- to put it bluntly, the claimant was lying, sometimes over several years and to their close confidantes (think George Adamski, Billy Meier).
Many of the key players in the current UFO field (e.g. Elizondo, Coulthart, Grusch) show that they are willing to accept unsupported anecdotes with apparently great confidence, and with a complete lack of scientific- or even journalistic- rigour. Elizondo has been quick to present "evidence" even when it is, frankly, risible- see the Elizondo's Romanian Non-Human Mothership Photo [Reflection of a Light Fixture] thread.
At no point did it seem to occur to him that a huge, brightly-lit UFO in clear view over a city in Romania, in daylight, would be witnessed (and presumably filmed) by many, many people, and it would not be possible to suppress the story. An absence, in this instance, of common sense.

Some other highly-detailed accounts are also of high strangeness. I suspect that they might (initially, at least) have started off as retellings of genuine- but highly subjective- experiences. Barney and Betty Hill's "encounter" might be one. Books by UFO enthusiasts are almost always highly selective about what parts of the Hill's narrative they use: No mention of the smiling redheaded Irishman and the German Nazi with a black coat and scarf looking out from the UFO (often much is made of Barney's recall, and distress at recalling, the Nazi's strange eyes- it's just never mentioned that they belong to a scarf-wearing Nazi). -No mention of how Barney knows the red-haired man is Irish (Barney explains why he's surprised that the man looks friendly, strongly indicating a strong subconscious influence on his recall). Rarely is it mentioned that Betty later stated that the "aliens"- often conflated with "Grays" by UFO enthusiasts- looked most like pictures she'd seen of a Mongolian woman, and/ or native people of Tierra Del Fuego (see evidence for the Hills not describing "Grays" in this post).

In passing, many popular accounts of Kenneth Arnold's 1947 sighting- often taken as the first modern UFO report- don't add
External Quote:
...that Mr. Arnold has reported seeing these same strange objects in the sky on three other occasions.
"Transcript of Ed Murrow-Kenneth Arnold Telephone Conversation", February-March 1984 CUFOS Associate Newsletter
https://www.project1947.com/fig/kamurrow.htm; CUFOS = J. Allen Hynek's Center for UFO studies (Wikipedia).
Those who advocate for the reality of the Hill's accounts, and the reliability of Arnold's, are often very reluctant to share- or even look into- what else those people have reported, if it stretches their credibility. The "UFOs are alien spacecraft" narrative must be preserved, even if that means deliberately ignoring inconvenient statements from the original sources of that narrative.

The

"incident" (Thread here) is another high strangeness event; the experiencer appears to have (or have had) a sleep disorder, perhaps of the type long-associated with perceptions of mythological incubi / succubi (Wikipedia Sleep paralysis, also Succubus).
There is evidence that (rarely) some other high strangeness accounts, firmly believed by the experiencer, might have a neurological basis.

We have no evidence that ETI flying vehicles, if they exist, are disc shaped, and there is no reason (that we currently know of) why they should be.
Human attempts at disc-shaped crewed aircraft have largely foundered; they might look nice but they're aerodynamically inferior to conventional planforms.
But there are threads on this forum describing an old wildlife water guzzler and a crop irrigation circle eagerly seized on as possible alien spacecraft
(see Claim: Crashed Disc - Sierra Ladrones, NM [Rainwater Catchment - Removed] and Four Corners - Large Disk Seen From Private Plane at FL210 [Irrigation Circles] respectively) because they were round, seen from the air and UFO enthusiasts didn't know what they were.

What on Earth (excuse the pun) is the logic behind that? Humans have built round structures for thousands of years.
Yet amongst some UFO enthusiasts, "circular" + "I don't immediately know what it is" = "possible alien spacecraft".
Because, er, "Flying Saucers":
External Quote:

MURROW: Here's how the name "flying saucer" was born.
ARNOLD: These objects more or less fluttered like they were, oh, I'd say, boats on very rough water or very rough air of some type, and when I described how they flew, I said that they flew like they take a saucer and throw it across the water. Most of the newspapers misunderstood and misquoted that too. They said that I said that they were saucer-like; I said that they flew in a saucer-like fashion.
MURROW: That was an historic misquote. While Mr. Arnold's original explanation has been forgotten, the term "flying saucer" has become a household word.
Kenneth Arnold, the reporting of whose 1947 sighting gave rise to the term "flying saucer", quoted in the February-March 1984 CUFOS Associate Newsletter, link above, also "The Man Who Introduced the World to Flying Saucers", The Atlantic, Megan Garber, 15 June 2014

This is what Arnold claimed he saw, early sketch (L), later picture of Arnold with an artist's impression (R) (he claimed there were two types).
View attachment 83221View attachment 83222

However, long before the idea that UFOs were "a thing" and that they might be alien craft became widespread, the American public were familiar with space-faring flying discs. They had been visible on magazine stands across the nation for years.

View attachment 83224 View attachment 83225 View attachment 83226
View attachment 83227 View attachment 83228

Magazines (L-R) from November 1929; winter 1930; pre-1931 (Science Wonder Stories merged with Air Wonder Stories to produce Wonder Stories in 1930), pre-1937 (not clearly visible here but cover states editor is Hugo Gernsback who ceased being editor in Feb 1936), May 1940.
So Americans knew about flying saucers for at least 17 years before anyone suggested they were real.

What evidence of aliens would convince me?
If a broad range of major Western news outlets carried the story as the leading item, covered by identifiable, broadly respected broadcasters/ journalists and with opinion sought from a large number of senior, relevant scientists from different universities, government agencies etc. who concur "that this is for real".
An internally consistent narrative describing what has been found, by whom, and how; and why the evidence is understood to be persuasive.
Statements from heads of state/ heads of government in the following days.
In the case of some public service broadcasters, changes in schedule for programs about the message, discovery or whatever, again featuring respected scientists invited because of their expertise in their field, not their media savvy or telegenic qualities.

Not one radio signal possibly , but not definitely, of ETI origin (which probably wouldn't trigger the above responses).
And in the absence of "red flags"- no signs of suppression of contrary academic opinion, no recent imposition of authoritarian government in the nations concerned, no suspicion of widespread hacking of, or other interference with, broadcast media signals. Not the first day of WW3.
Not internet only.
To paraphrase Gil Scott-Heron, the revelation will be televised.


If the (e.g. US) government had such photos/ footage/ radar findings, and wanted to reveal the discovery of ETI, it could release copies of the images/ data in a manner that does not give clear indications of the performance of the technology used. Or show the evidence to a panel of security-cleared scientists (if they hadn't done so already) and perhaps other respected folk and ask them to draft a statement describing what had been found without compromising security.

The findings from photos taken by U2 flights over Cuba in 1962 were made public. I'd guess the capabilities of the systems used were not.
External Quote:
In France on 23 October, the crisis made the front page of all the daily newspapers. The next day, an editorial in Le Monde expressed doubt about the authenticity of the CIA's photographic evidence. Two days later, after a visit by a high-ranking CIA agent, the newspaper accepted the validity of the photographs.
Wikipedia, Cuban Missile Crisis.

A "they want to reveal but can't" theory is really just a softer version of the establishment cover-up conspiracy theory.
It has some of the same problems: It requires a cohort of personnel, presumably over many years, who know of this supposedly unambiguous evidence. At least some would understand its wider significance for humanity. But all remain loyal, excepting a handful feeling the need to tell some members of "the UFO community" (not appropriate academics or a respected press outlet). Despite this unprecedented level of secrecy and the evident success in maintaining it, where there are leaks, no-one is punished. There are no investigations, even though it is axiomatic to this theory that a reveal could compromise national security.
As the years passed, it would seem sensible to review the evidence using newer technologies, or perhaps involve different scientists/ engineers.
Just keeping the evidence totally under wraps after it was found in 1947, 1966, 1979 or whatever doesn't make much sense.
The technology used to obtain the photos would become obsolescent over time, and any dodgy circumstances in which the photos were obtained, less politically "hot".
Also on the last point here, when people who claim to know what it is in a photo then make that claim aligned to some disclosure control factor, 10/10 bet its nonsense.

The actual reason these images are not released, even in actual cases of UAP, is for security reasons. Lot of folks forget that foreign nations spend a lot of time trying to conduct espionage against intelligence collection of their own technology. This tells them what we know, so they can develop their tech further to evade our sensory capabilities. If we release image of a UAP, it basically makes the whole analytical point redundant because instead of a multi-million dollar espionage campaign, we released it for free.
This is also why the stuff that is released is downgraded, it degrades the presentation of the capability so adversaries can't just take the video and assess our sensory capabilities to develop against.
 
I like @Todd Feinman's stance, who says he believes in UFOs but does not have the evidence to convince us. Metabunk is really discussing evidence, not belief, and as long as we agree (somewhat) on standards of evidence, I don't really care that much what people believe.

But then I use the word "belief" for something I think is true on insufficient evidence, and "knowledge" for what I think is true because I have evidence (or been told by people I trust). So @Ann K asking us to only believe what we have evidence for leaves no room for belief.

A mathematician may believe a certain theorem is true: she may have found some examples, examined it from various angles etc. She will then set out to prove that theorem, logically, mathematically, and then she will know it is true. But without the initial idea, there's no value in doing the work. It's not interesting to try and prove something you believe is false anyway (unless there's an external reason that attaches importance).

We have some facts that are in a limbo state, where we can't say if they're true or not, and that's the space for reasonable belief and disbelief to coexist—until we find conclusive evidence.

The really interesting part of this is that the quest for evidence is often asymmetric. We can answer, "What evidence of aliens would convince skeptics?", but we can't answer "what evidence of alien absence would convince believers?" because a negative is hard to prove.
You only need to find one UFO to prove that the US government has UFOs, but you can't prove that they don't have any. So if you hold the belief that the USG has UFO's, and if it's false, then you're never going to know.

It's easier for the disbelievers. If the people who don't believe in UFOs are wrong, they're going to find out eventually.
 
Rarely is it mentioned that Betty later stated that the "aliens"- often conflated with "Grays" by UFO enthusiasts- looked most like pictures she'd seen of a Mongolian woman, and/ or native people of Tierra Del Fuego
I did not know that detail, but it occurs to me that the most common source for most Americans to have seen images of individuals from distant lands was (and still is) National Geographic magazine ...and the older magazines were printed largely or entirely in black and white. So, literally, "grey people".
 
Rarely is it mentioned that Betty later stated that the "aliens"- often conflated with "Grays" by UFO enthusiasts- looked most like pictures she'd seen of a Mongolian woman, and/ or native people of Tierra Del Fuego (see evidence for the Hills not describing "Grays" in this post).
She also was a "serial UFO experiencer, to an extreme. Retails are in a book I have at home, I am not there today but will pull it out when I get back...
 
As skeptics, If you believe there has been a UFO echo chamber that one can trace back to Harry Reid and Bigelow and a number of fringe scientists that has spread to members of the government and individuals with high clearances --Wow! what a persistent sociological and psychological phenomenon.
This isn't a belief though. It's extremely well documented at this point
 
The best evidence I would like to see would be a biological sample from an extraterrestrial source. Every so-called alien biological sample which has been tested so far has been terrestrial in origin, although sometimes the exact haplotype has been a bit unusual.

If we really did have a sample of alien tissue, it would have no relationship to terrestrial DNA at all (indeed the genetic information in this tissue need not even contain any nucleic acid, if the biology is completely different to terrestrial biology). Truly alien genetics would have no points of crossover with terrestrial genetics whatsoever, since they would have a completely different evolutionary history.

The 'interdimensional' hypothesis which many UAP believers subscribe to might be a different matter altogether - the inhabitants of these 'other dimensions' could conceivably have human ancestry, depending on the exact reason these 'alternate dimensions' are divergent from our own. If the 'alternate dimension' hypothesis has any truth in reality (which seems extremely unlikely) then analysis of this extradimensional DNA would be a fascinating subject to study in detail; if we ever find some, let some competent astrobiologists have a look, rather than interested amateurs.
 
The best evidence I would like to see would be a biological sample from an extraterrestrial source. Every so-called alien biological sample which has been tested so far has been terrestrial in origin, although sometimes the exact haplotype has been a bit unusual.
Bingo! Tissue samples with a version of "DNA" with a completely different base upon which the information is built would be a slam-dunk.

Bits of metal or other detritus claimed to be extraterrestrial are ambiguous, and probably mean "I don't know what this stuff is, so the aliens must have dropped it".
 
If we really did have a sample of alien tissue, it would have no relationship to terrestrial DNA at all (indeed the genetic information in this tissue need not even contain any nucleic acid, if the biology is completely different to terrestrial biology). Truly alien genetics would have no points of crossover with terrestrial genetics whatsoever, since they would have a completely different evolutionary history.
Caveat: if some version of panspermia (life can and has spread between planets and star systems) then alians sharing our sort of DNA, and being related to Earth life, would be possible.

Totally unrelated-to-us tissue would be strong evidence of aliens, tissue with similar chemistry to ours and other Earth life would be inconclusive.
 
Caveat: if some version of panspermia (life can and has spread between planets and star systems) then alians sharing our sort of DNA, and being related to Earth life, would be possible.
That would also be interesting. Using molecular genetics we should be able to tell how long ago this hypothetical alien life diverged from Earth life (or vice versa). Currently, we can make a very good estimate of the date of divergence between any two organisms on Earth; humans and fungi, for example, diverged 1.5 billion years ago. I'd expect any panspermia event to have occurred longer ago than that.
 
Last edited:
That would also be interesting. Using molecular genetics we should be able to tell how long ago this hypothetical alien life diverged from Earth life (or vice versa). Currently, we can make a very good estimate of the date of diversion between any two organisms on Earth; humans and fungi, for example, diverged 1.5 billion years ago. I'd expect any panspermia event to have occurred longer ago than that.
Hadn't thought of that -- although it could be the first time we'd have to take relativistic time dilation into account when making such estimates, depending on how the aliens were getting around! ^_^
 
Back
Top