Is this a Chinese spy balloon?

I was trying to find any images of the debris and/or recovery project.. Sadly no info yet. I guess it is not going to be public.
 
Today's Sunday Times (UK, paywalled, and apparently finalised before the balloon was shot down), has a long article about the case. It includes the following paragraph:

The US has also tested high-altitude balloons, designed to be less visible to radar, able to travel long distances and with the ability to counter prevailing winds. In the past, balloons were at the mercy of the wind (and China would have us believe they still are) but advanced computer systems enable them to use the currents at different altitudes to steer themselves and loiter at will.

No source is cited for these claims. The article itself is credited to Ian Williams, author of a book The Fires of the Dragon: China's New Cold War.

Rising and falling in the atmosphere to take advantage of currents at different altitudes would indeed give a balloon some influence over its movement. A traditional hydrogen or helium balloon could rise by dumping sand or other ballast, or by pumping more gas into the envelope from a pressurised container. It could fall by venting a controlled amount of gas from the envelope into the atmosphere. A hot air balloon could rise by turning up the heat, or fall by turning it down and allowing the air in the envelope to cool.

These methods all have limitations. The supplies of fuel, gas, or ballast carried by the balloon cannot be replenished in flight, and must run out eventually. (With solar power available, air in the balloon could in principle be heated renewably, but the set-up of the Chinese balloon doesn't appear to provide for this.) Even if the relevant supplies have not run out, the ability to control the speed or direction of the balloon's movement would also depend on the existence of suitable air currents, and I don't see any way of guaranteeing this.

The available images and videos of the balloon don't show any obvious means of controlling altitude, such as ballast or gas tanks. There may be some provision for venting gas, which might not be easily visible, as we can't see the top of the balloon.

Others here may know more about the alleged US experiments with high-altitude balloons, which would give some idea of what is currently considered viable technology.
 
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-us-is-going-take-care-of-chinese-balloon-2023-02-04/


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023...ll-take-care-of-suspected-chinese-spy-balloon


A paraphrase rather than a quotation. Other News Outlets appear to be making their own interpretations of the paraphrase from Reuters.

But this clearly means seven square miles. Obviously widely scattered debris. As shreds of the balloon fall, they flutter and spread out. One here, another way over there. If you draw a perimeter around the most widely scattered bits, the perimeter encloses an area of seven square miles. It doesn't mean a carpet of debris. There wasn't that much mass in the balloon or in the array.

What would a seven mile long debris field look like? A narrow line of debris seven miles long?
I think we have to wait and see. About the balloon itself, it seems to have slowly come down in one piece, perhaps minus any pieces torn off by the exploding missile. I understand that opinions are prohibited in this forum but if they were allowed mine would be that we are dealing with a completely benign research balloon that took a path matching stratospheric winds. The Chinese have explained and ACTUALLY APOLOGIZED! The US refuses to accept that and prefers to maintain the "spy balloon" position. I hope for the time when cooler and more logical heads surface in our government. It may take a while.

I wish you all success in this well structured forum. It's just not my style and I don't belong here . . .
 
If you did actually work with missiles and have any military knowledge, you would know that we will never see any of that data. It's odd that you keep making such comments.
Agreed. We learned a valuable lesson after the shoot down of the KAL 747 in 1983. Against the advice of the DoD, President Reagan ordered the release of data and voice intercepts obtained through SIGINT means to prove the Soviets were lying when they denied shooting down the a/c. That data was presented in detail at the UN, and snippets of the voice intercepts were actually played during Mr Reagan's address to the American people on live TV. I remember watching that address.

While he proved the Soviets did shoot down the 747, in doing so he revealed sources/means/methods that limited the effectiveness of those capabilities in the (then) immediate future as we literally told our adversaries were what we could do/had gathered.

Bottom line, you do not want the other guy to know what you know and of your ability to get that data/information.
 
I think we have to wait and see. About the balloon itself, it seems to have slowly come down in one piece, perhaps minus any pieces torn off by the exploding missile. I understand that opinions are prohibited in this forum but if they were allowed mine would be that we are dealing with a completely benign research balloon that took a path matching stratospheric winds. The Chinese have explained and ACTUALLY APOLOGIZED! The US refuses to accept that and prefers to maintain the "spy balloon" position. I hope for the time when cooler and more logical heads surface in our government. It may take a while.

I wish you all success in this well structured forum. It's just not my style and I don't belong here . . .
You neglected to mentioned your repentant PRC made threats after the shootdown.

In its statement Sunday, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that “China will resolutely uphold the relevant company’s legitimate rights and interests, and at the same time reserving the right to take further actions in response.” China’s Ministry of Defense echoed the statement later in the day, saying it “reserves the right to take necessary measures to deal with similar situations.”
Content from External Source
https://apnews.com/article/politics...tony-blinken-51e49202f2a0a50541cde059934c4cfb
 
that took a path matching stratospheric winds

but IF the reports of it going through ALberta and Saskatchewan are accurate then it doesnt match the NOAA map.

Screenshot 2023-02-04 142045.png


Article:
A map of North America with arrows pointing to Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada where the Chinese Surveillance Balloon was seen hovering. Getty Images
1675618282257.png
 
Possible debris from Chinese balloon spotted at boat ramp
Not much to go on here.

By WMBF News Staff
Published: Feb. 5, 2023 at 10:05 AM PST|Updated: 1 hour ago

MYRTLE BEACH, S.C. (WMBF) - Possible debris from a Chinese balloon that was shot down was spotted Sunday at a North Myrtle Beach-area boat ramp.
WMBF News viewer Brady Deal sent in footage from the Johnny Causey Landing, showing what appears to be the downed balloon on a boat close to shore along with military personnel.
The balloon was shot down at around 3 p.m. Saturday after being spotted as it made its way across the Grand Strand and Pee Dee.
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2023/02/04...chinese-balloon-spotted-grand-strand-pee-dee/




This is just a warning from local police not to touch suspected debris that has washed ashore, as it is part of a Federal investigation, but to simply report it.




Footage showing many pieces shredding away as it descends.
 
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This may show the array shedding pieces as it falls. There are some twinkles in the last few seconds of the video.
 
Possible debris from Chinese balloon spotted at boat ramp
Not much to go on here.


https://www.wmbfnews.com/2023/02/04...chinese-balloon-spotted-grand-strand-pee-dee/




This is just a warning from local police not to touch suspected debris that has washed ashore, as it is part of a Federal investigation, but to simply report it.




Footage showing many pieces shredding away as it descends.

Should not be too long before we see "Chinese Balloon Pieces" for sale on eBay.
 
From one of the documents linked at #126 above:

While the balloon’s exact dimensions and features are unclear, the Pentagon says it was spotted hovering at an altitude of about 60,000 feet — well beyond the range of civilian air travel.

Either:
1. The Pentagon has been misreported.
2. A Pentagon spokesperson has misused the term 'hovering' when they just mean something like 'not moving noticeably for some time'.
3. The balloon really does have the ability to maintain its position steady over a point on the ground, unlike most balloons.
4. The Pentagon, or at least a Pentagon spokesperson, is ignorant of basic physics.

I don't think we can rule out any of these. Option 3 would be most interesting. Option 4 would be worrying.
 
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/index.html

Weather balloon off course sounds legit to me. For spying they surely have better means.
The US has more and probably better satellites but still uses balloons.

Satellites have a major disadvantage: there's no stealth in space. You can't conceal an orbital class launch and once one is detected it can be matched to its COSPAR or NORAD numbers and you'll know right where it is, what its orbit is like, when it maneuvers, when it will pass overhead, etc. They also have a minor disadvantage that once launched you have a strict limit on how much you can change where it's going, if you want to image, say, a North Korean launch site and your closest satellite is going to pass a hundred miles east, you'll need to expend propellant to change its orbit and if that's not in the delta-v budget or the order comes down too late then you're just not getting your pictures.

Everything satellites do, from communications to telescopes, is also done with stratospheric balloons with varying advantages and disadvantages.
 
1. The Pentagon has been misreported.
2. A Pentagon spokesperson has misused the term 'hovering' when they just mean something like 'not moving noticeably for some time'.

Article:

Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds an On-Camera Press Briefing​

Feb. 3, 2023Brigadier General Pat Ryder, Pentagon Press Secretary

...
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so again, this is a surveillance balloon, hover — you know, operating at about 60,000 feet. Clearly, you know, we did a — a very close assessment, in terms of what it's doing. And as I mentioned, military commanders have assessed that there is no physical or military threat to people on the ground. And so in that regard, we'll continue to monitor.



timestamp of quote 11:55

Source: https://youtu.be/4r9wp3OZblI?t=665
 
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Please don't make any uninformed judgements about what resources I have.
Sorry, but I break out in hives when told that the evidence that can't be seen by anybody else, or the knowledge only accessible by the poster, proves the point under discussion. Our brethren and sistren over in the UFO community has have sensitized me to that. If you are unable or unwilling to back up the affirmative claims you are making, there is probably not much else to discuss on this topic. If the super secret evidence to which I shouldn't assume you have no more access than I have ever comes out, I'll meet you back here.
 
but IF the reports of it going through ALberta and Saskatchewan are accurate then it doesnt match the NOAA map.
Which raises the question of whether there were more of them... if you can't aim accurately, fire a lot of shots and hope one hits your target. Might also explain a simultaneous balloon over Costa Rica.
 
but IF the reports of it going through ALberta and Saskatchewan are accurate then it doesnt match the NOAA map.

Screenshot 2023-02-04 142045.png


Article:
A map of North America with arrows pointing to Alberta and Saskatchewan in Canada where the Chinese Surveillance Balloon was seen hovering. Getty Images
1675618282257.png
It's interesting that most of the arrow points don't align with some posted tracks. Also,
From one of the documents linked at #126 above:



Either:
1. The Pentagon has been misreported.
2. A Pentagon spokesperson has misused the term 'hovering' when they just mean something like 'not moving noticeably for some time'.
3. The balloon really does have the ability to maintain its position steady over a point on the ground, unlike most balloons.
4. The Pentagon, or at least a Pentagon spokesperson, is ignorant of basic physics.

I don't think we can rule out any of these. Option 3 would be most interesting. Option 4 would be worrying.
1. Is true much of the time. Alternatively the Pentagon is wrong, and having done contracts for them they are not all genius level.
2. We know the jet stream, aka Wiley Post, 1931, is variable. He got up to+200 mph Eastbound when he discovered it over Oklahoma.
3. Nope, not a chance
4. Yes, see my number 1.

My experience is that the Pentagon often misreports itself.

I present a new challenge. Can anyone provide a tiny bit of evidence that the balloon is on a spy mission? Just anything solid? I can't.
 
It's interesting that most of the arrow points don't align with some posted tracks. Also,

1. Is true much of the time. Alternatively the Pentagon is wrong, and having done contracts for them they are not all genius level.
2. We know the jet stream, aka Wiley Post, 1931, is variable. He got up to+200 mph Eastbound when he discovered it over Oklahoma.
3. Nope, not a chance
4. Yes, see my number 1.

My experience is that the Pentagon often misreports itself.

I present a new challenge. Can anyone provide a tiny bit of evidence that the balloon is on a spy mission? Just anything solid? I can't.
It's not our responsibility to prove that this balloon is a spy device.

It is the responsibility of the Chinese government to inform other countries of their so called 'civilian weather balloon' activities when they conduct them, or when their balloon gets loose. It is their responsibly to make clear the nature of the craft to the public.

They didn't do that seemingly once over the past 3-4+ years of sightings and now all the sudden we're expected to give them the benefit of the doubt?
 
It's not our responsibility to prove that this balloon is a spy device.

It is the responsibility of the Chinese government to inform other countries of their so called 'civilian weather balloon' activities when they conduct them, or when their balloon gets loose. It is their responsibly to make clear the nature of the craft to the public.

They didn't do that seemingly once over the past 3-4+ years of sightings and now all the sudden we're expected to give them the benefit of the doubt?
On Friday, the Chinese foreign ministry said it “regrets the unintended entry,” and responded by saying, “It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course.”
 
for research, mainly meteorological, purposes.

mainly? what are the other purposes?

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2-5-2023 9-39-44 PM.jpg
 
Slightly off thread.... I often post links to plane tracking and satellite tracking websites on here but did you know that you can track Weather Balloons all around the world....

https://sondehub.org/

edit_20230206000015.jpg

Amateur balloons can be tracked here
https://amateur.sondehub.org/

Root page is https://habhub.org/
Very interesting. So if they are being tracked, probably means they have transponders. So why do weather balloons have transponders? Maybe because of some international convention or agreement? Possibly through ICAO? And if such a requirement exists, does it apply only to weather balloons, or to any balloon that could pose a threat to air travel? I'd bet on the latter. I've not read anywhere about the PRC destroyed on Saturday balloon squawking a transponder signal.

Have you gotten familiar enough with this weather balloon tracker to know if you can go back in time to look at activity on specific dates in specific locations? I'm curious if the PRC balloon showed up on this designated weather balloon tracker at anytime since its launch? If there is a look back capability, should be doable to see if it showed over Montana whatever data/time(s) if was last week it was noticed/reported there.

If it didn't show anywhere on the tracker last week as I suspect, the obvious question is why? Assuming the Chinese were honest about it being a civilian airship engaged in meteorological research, shouldn't it appear on that tracker? And further assuming it was not squawking, did the PRC violate any international agreement/convention by not doing so?
 
Very interesting. So if they are being tracked, probably means they have transponders. So why do weather balloons have transponders?

To be a bit pedantic - they don't have a transponder (which respond to another station's request), they have a location beacon that continually transmits the balloons location and other data. I think the two main reason they have them is 1) so that they can recover them when they eventually fall to earth and 2) so that some of the met data is updated and logged in real-time, so it isn't a wasted flight if it isn't recovered.

Have you gotten familiar enough with this weather balloon tracker to know if you can go back in time to look at activity on specific dates in specific locations?
Yes , you can go back in time and see the historic position of balloons and telemetry data for up to 12 hrs. I havent found a way of replaying data from days or weeks in the past.

1675675583539.png

You can also the predicted path of the balloon based on current weather conditions.

https://predict.sondehub.org/?launc...pe=single&burst_altitude=30000&descent_rate=5

1675675456427.png

I'm curious if the PRC balloon showed up on this designated weather balloon tracker at anytime since its launch? If there is a look back capability, should be doable to see if it showed over Montana whatever data/time(s) if was last week it was noticed/reported there.
The Chinese balloon wasn't on this site.
 
Interesting, in 2020 , the intel community assessed that much smaller balloons detected off the Virginia coast were Chinese radar jamming devices

Article:
At lower levels, officials have tracked multiple instances of balloon activity over U.S. territories in recent years. One of the Trump-era balloons hovered over Guam, according to two U.S. officials. And in 2020, the intelligence community assessed that much smaller balloons detected off the coast of Virginia were Chinese radar-jamming devices, according to a former senior DoD official.
 
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I wonder about some facts.

If the Chinese knew where the balloon was, and were capable of controlling it, then they should've notified civil air traffic control, as far as I understand the relevant regulations. It seems that they did not do that.

If China had lost track of the balloon, I'd consider it a derelict, and in that case anybody was free to do anything with it (such as shooting it down).

Based on this, I don't understand Chinese objections to having it shot down.

---

There shouldn't be much secrecy concerning the debris of the balloon, if recovered: the Chinese already know what it is, and we all know how the US obtained it.
 
Interesting article I saw about the US using U2s to track and possibly monitor the balloon. It's a longer article that even gets into the UAP report, but here are some highlights:

The U.S. Air Force's U-2S Dragon Lady spy planes were among the assets tapped to monitor and collect intelligence on a Chinese government surveillance balloon during its recent trip across parts of the continental United States and Canada.

A U.S. defense official confirmed the use of the U-2S as part of the broader response to the Chinese spy balloon to The War Zone today. It's not immediately clear all the points along the balloon's voyage that U-2s were present.

The Dragon Lady is the only aircraft in U.S. military inventory, at least that we know, that can fly persistently at altitudes even higher than where the balloon was soaring, which was between roughly 60,000 and 70,000 feet throughout its trip across the United States and Canada.

With any array of sensors like this, a U-2S could gather high-quality visuals of the balloon, as well as soak up any electronic emissions that it might have been pumping out. The Dragon Lady can further carry robust data links that allow for sharing the information it gathers with personnel on the ground in near-real-time.
Content from External Source

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-2-spy-planes-snooped-on-chinese-surveillance-balloon/ar-AA17bdwL
 
Some interesting details in this article -

"VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command, said that the balloon itself was 200 feet tall, and the sensor payload underneath was the size of a regional jetliner. Kirby added that the balloon had propellers and a rudder to allow it to change direction speed up, slow and turn, but it relied mostly on the winds and was limited in mobility.

https://www.nbc15.com/2023/02/06/white-house-improved-surveillance-caught-chinese-balloon/

Also, there seems to have been some sightings in Taiwan over the past few years as well, not very surprising.

"Zheng Mingdian, director of the Central Meteorological Bureau, said that in September 2021 and March 2022, the same balloon appeared over Taipei, staying for about 3 hours"

https://tw.nextapple.com/life/20230204/3D75C6F497EE5FA5FACFEEAAEB20C5CE

1675720686620.png
 
It would never have occurred to me that they might NOT object to having it shot down. Objecting to it being shot down is free.
 
Don't the US spy on other countries with all sorts of means including spy planes, drones and balloons?
This could easily leed to a tit for tat scenario. I can see why they would be hesitant to shoot down a spy craft, they would know that could leed to reprisals on any of their spy assets
 
Don't the US spy on other countries with all sorts of means including spy planes, drones and balloons?
This could easily leed to a tit for tat scenario. I can see why they would be hesitant to shoot down a spy craft, they would know that could leed to reprisals on any of their spy assets
i imagine it's ok worldwide to shoot down spy planes. that's probably why they invented drones.
 
i imagine it's ok worldwide to shoot down spy planes. that's probably why they invented drones.
It's not an accident that things like the Geneva Convention are usually silent on spies despite being very comprehensive on soldiers at war, prisoners of war, civilians in a war zone, civilian government of warring nations, etc etc etc.
 
As the story was playing out, I kept wondering if the U.S. had some tech that could
try to get entwined with the loose ends of the thing (Yes, like AT-ATs in Empire Strikes Back), ;P
capture it and bring the whole thing in...for a complete and thorough examination.

I'm guessing not, since they opted for the AIM-9X Sidewinder...and maybe they were
confident that they could retrieve virtually all of the tech pieces...?
 
do we have pics of the balloon over Latin America? wonder why this one is "for test flight" but ours was allegedly for weather.

Article:
"With regard to the balloon over Latin America, it has been verified that the unmanned airship is from China, of civilian nature and used for flight test," China Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters Monday. "Affected by the weather and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course and entered into the airspace of Latin America and the Caribbean."
 
These things have been sighted over Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Canada, Hawaii, South America, the Andaman Islands (in the Indian Ocean). I'm betting that these reports represent just a fraction of the actual number of balloon overflights.


Paywall: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/06/chinese-balloons-failed-detection/
The top U.S. general responsible for protecting North American skies said Monday that past incursions by Chinese balloons went undetected by the Pentagon...

The Defense Department has acknowledged that the craft shot down Saturday off the South Carolina coast after a days-long journey across the U.S. mainland marked at least the fifth time in recent years that Beijing has breached the nation’s airspace using such technology. Officials informed lawmakers over the weekend that, dating back to Donald Trump’s presidency, there had been similar breaches near Texas, Florida, Hawaii and Guam.“

As NORAD commander, it’s my responsibility to detect threats to North America,” Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, who oversees the North American Aerospace Defense Command, told reporters during a news briefing. “I will tell you that we did not detect those threats. And that’s a domain awareness gap that we have to figure out.”
Perhaps, up until now, these balloons have been spotted visually simply by happenstance. If that's true, it follows that many others haven't been detected at all.

Why have these spy balloons been seen from the Indian Ocean to Costa Rica? Okay, maybe they keep losing these things in the wind.

Something I've toyed with... What is it China is interested in, all over the world? Their own citizens.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chi...secret-police-stations-monitor-exiles-2022-12
China operates more than 100 so-called police stations worldwide to monitor, harass and repatriate its citizens in exile. Ireland ordered a Chinese police station found on its territory to shut down, as has the Netherlands. Canada has issued "cease and desist" warning to China over police stations.
FBI Director Christopher Wray told a Homeland Security Committee last month he was "very concerned" about possible unauthorized Chinese police stations in US cities.

"It is outrageous to think that the Chinese police would attempt to set up shop, you know, in New York, let's say, without proper coordination. It violates sovereignty and circumvents standard judicial and law enforcement cooperation processes," he said.

Are these things collecting info, somehow, on their own citizens living in foreign countries? Some kind of electronic surveillance? I don't know what's technically possible.
 
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do we have pics of the balloon over Latin America?
Found this -- I cringe at myself for using Daily Mail as a source, but they were the first I found that did not seem to be using a pic of the US balloon to illustrate their story, PLUS the possible route map at the bottom gives a good feel, to me at least, for how two balloons that started off in slightly different directions can wind up so far apart.

balloons in the americas.JPG
Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...y-balloon-spotted-sky-time-Latin-America.html


wonder why this one is "for test flight" but ours was allegedly for weather.
No idea, it would seem either would do for both. Possibly not everybody got the memo?
 
Found this -- I cringe at myself for using Daily Mail as a source, but they were the first I found that did not seem to be using a pic of the US balloon to illustrate their story, PLUS the possible route map at the bottom gives a good feel, to me at least, for how two balloons that started off in slightly different directions can wind up so far apart.

Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...y-balloon-spotted-sky-time-Latin-America.html

No idea, it would seem either would do for both. Possibly not everybody got the memo?

Here is the source tweet for that daily mail article. It's from Maracaibo, Venezuela.


Source: https://twitter.com/el_charlie/status/1621631362343084033/photo/1


That graphic is interesting... if correct this would mean that one spotted over Costa Rica a couple days ago is almost certainly the same one over South America at this time. Also, the two paths of the balloons and the times of which they were released may suggest that they were released simultaneously and probably not for the purpose of 'weather research'

1675741002257.png
 
Here is the source tweet for that daily mail article. It's from Maracaibo, Venezuela.


Source: https://twitter.com/el_charlie/status/1621631362343084033/photo/1


That graphic is interesting... if correct this would mean that one spotted over Costa Rica a couple days ago is almost certainly the same one over South America at this time. Also, the two paths of the balloons and the times of which they were released may suggest that they were released simultaneously and probably not for the purpose of 'weather research'

1675741002257.png

Short of RAF Typhoons based in the Falklands, I doubt there is a fighter based in South America capable of taking down that balloon. Of course the US could offer to take it out as a member of the OAS.
 
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