The Bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls School in Minab, Iran

[deirdre]

(linked to Telegram from the Bellingcat site

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uX9Cn9174Uo

 

[Gary C]

Bellingcat have just published a report with apparent video footage (linked to Telegram from the Bellingcat site) of a Tomahawk cruise missile strike in Minab.

The US is the only participant in the war that is known to have Tomahawk missiles.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/202...-missile-strike-next-to-girls-school-in-iran/

From the link above:

Planet Labs satellite imagery shows that only two structures within this red cone were damaged, including a clinic. The other structure appears to be an earth-covered magazine or bunker.

Interesting because the building labeled "clinic" in the NPR report appears only to have a large entry hole in the roof but remains otherwise intact. It is visually similar to the building at upper right just below the school suggesting that both were heavily constructed to withstand blast damage, i.e. bunkers.

 

[deirdre]

in the NPR report appears only to have a large entry hole in the roof

but didnt "they" say the school used to be a bunker too? not that having "just a hole" would have helped save any lives, i assume tomahawks blow up on impact, yes?

 

[fizzBuzz]

Interesting because the building labeled "clinic" in the NPR report appears only to have a large entry hole in the roof but remains otherwise intact. It is visually similar to the building at upper right just below the school suggesting that both were heavily constructed to withstand blast damage, i.e. bunkers.

My first reaction to the video was "where's the explosion? is this some kind of bunker bomb?". But I don't know enough about all that to give an educated opinion.

 

[NoParty]

So what would be the most likely explanation for Trump sounding like someone who had not spent 1 minute
(a week [!] after the tragedy) being briefed by our excellent military leaders, or
reviewing the in-depth investigations by PBS, CBS, New York Times, Al Jezeera, Washington Post, Bellingcat, etc., etc., etc.?

 

[fizzBuzz]

So what would be the most likely explanation for Trump sounding like someone who had not spent 1 minute being briefed by our excellent military leaders

Most likely explanation is your bias and TDS.

 

[Gary C]

My first reaction to the video was "where's the explosion? is this some kind of bunker bomb?". But I don't know enough about all that to give an educated opinion.

We don't know what distance the video was taken from so the sound might not have reached the user's location before the video cuts off.

but didnt "they" say the school used to be a bunker too? not that having "just a hole" would have helped save any lives, i assume tomahawks blow up on impact, yes?

I did a quick scan through the NPR article but I don't see that particular claim. It might have been another source but I don't recall it.
Comparing the pre and post strike photos again, the school appears to me to have a wider and flatter roof than either of the two buildings I would characterize as possible bunkers. Younger eyes might have a different opinion.

 

[deirdre]

My first reaction to the video was "where's the explosion? is this some kind of bunker bomb?". But I don't know enough about all that to give an educated opinion.

huh i didnt even notice that. yea usually tomahawk missiles there's a big fireball. i kinda thought that about the buildigns with the smallish round holes too.. i mean that would have to be a seriously strong building to keep the explosion all inside the building. i guess its possible.

or maybe we used older model tomahawks without so much power, or some quds we confiscated from iraq?

the school appears to me to have a wider and flatter roof than either of the two buildings

the school does look flat from what remains.. the others arent particularly pointy either (compared to roofs that get snow) but i do see an indication of a slight rain grade slope.

add: the al jezeera article photo when it was still part of the military base has better graphics and it was a much different roof then the other buildigns back then
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...s-school-strike-as-israel-us-deny-involvement

 

[deirdre]

the in-depth investigations by PBS, CBS, New York Times, Al Jezeera, Washington Post, Bellingcat, etc., etc., etc.?

dude we have had other threads analyzing disaster stuff... what you are listing are not "in-depth" investigations. Even Bellingcats article is short as hell when he usually writes pages of analysis.

 

[Giddierone]

@Gary C they posted an update to say that the missile seen in the video is likely one of several, since there's already smoke coming from where they estimate the school to be.

 

[Ann K]

So what would be the most likely explanation for Trump sounding like someone who had not spent 1 minute
(a week [!] after the tragedy) being briefed by our excellent military leaders, or
reviewing the in-depth investigations by PBS, CBS, New York Times, Al Jezeera, Washington Post, Bellingcat, etc., etc., etc.?

The most likely explanation is that either he doesn't want to hear about it or he doesn't want to be asked about it. The next reason is that none of them want to be the bearer of bad tidings to a man whose response may well be to "shoot the messenger", but although that may be true of some sources (*ahem* Hegseth) it's improbable that it's true of all you name.

 

[Gary C]

The next thing I would get if I were conducting this investigation is the CENTCOM No-Strike List.

Joint Publication 3-60 -- Joint Targeting (same as previously linked above)
pg II-13

The no-strike list (NSL) is not a target list, though it is a critical part of the joint targeting process. The NSL is a list of objects or entities characterized as protected from the effects of military operations under international law and/or rules of engagement.

L No-strike entities are protected from the effects of military operations under international law and/or the ROE. Attacking these may violate the laws of war (e.g., cultural and religious sites, embassies belonging to noncombatant countries, hospitals, schools) or interfere with friendly relations with other nations, indigenous populations, or governments. NSLs are not target lists, since the entities on the NSLs are not targets. NSLs are continuously updated with the latest information from the operational environment. For more information on no-strike entities and NSLs, see CJCSI 3160.01, No Strike and the Collateral Damage Estimation Methodology.

 

[John J.]

My first reaction to the video was "where's the explosion? is this some kind of bunker bomb?". But I don't know enough about all that to give an educated opinion.

Me neither. Perhaps the warhead failed to detonate, or to completely detonate? It might seem unlikely but it does happen.

Of the 16 U.S. Tomahawk missiles fired at militants in Nigeria, at least four appeared not to explode, according to officials and imagery reviewed by The Post.

Washington Post, "Unexploded missiles, witnesses undercut Trump account of Nigeria strike", 10 January 2026
https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2026/01/10/nigeria-strikes-islamist-militants-isis/

Russian authorities claim to have received components from Tomahawks that failed to detonate when used against targets in Syria,
"Fact: Russia Captured an Unexploded U.S. Tomahawk Missile", The National Interest website, 21 August 2020, Michael Peck (I'm not sure that the article establishes if the claim is a fact), https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/fact-russia-captured-unexploded-us-tomahawk-missile-167346

The speed of impact doesn't guarantee the detonation of high explosives; many (supersonic) HE artillery shells fail to detonate; the Exocet missile that struck HMS Sheffield in 1982 failed to explode and Exocets are considerably faster than Tomahawks (approx. Mach 0.93 vs. 0.74).

Again, no idea if this is what happened, or if maybe as @fizzBuzz has mused, the missile penetrated a bunker before detonating. Maybe neither of these.

 

[NoParty]

The most likely explanation is that either he doesn't want to hear about it or he doesn't want to be asked about it. The next reason is that none of them want to be the bearer of bad tidings to a man whose response may well be to "shoot the messenger", but although that may be true of some sources (*ahem* Hegseth) it's improbable that it's true of all you name.

Well, I sure can not disagree with that.
In my mind, though, the most likely explanation for Trump sounding like someone who had not spent 1 minute trying
to understand the tragedy, is because he simply had NOT bothered to spend 1 minute trying to understand the tragedy.
Experience has (sadly) taught him, that his opinions will be news, & broadcast far & wide, even if/when they have zero factual basis...

ETA: To be fair to Trump, he's had multiple parties to host, & a stunningly pointless & ineffective (see below)
"College Sports Roundtable" for some reason...
true, ethical priorities (over spending a minute or two on the tragic deaths of ~175 innocents...mostly little girls),
keeping him from paying much attention to his war of choice.

"Trump college sports meeting turns into dog and pony show with no real answers.
Trump's suggestion: "I'd like to go exactly back to what we had, and ram it through a court." 3/6/26
https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ck-saban-ncaa-antitrust-congress/89027722007/

 

[MapperGuy]

huh i didnt even notice that. yea usually tomahawk missiles there's a big fireball. i kinda thought that about the buildigns with the smallish round holes too.. i mean that would have to be a seriously strong building to keep the explosion all inside the building. i guess its possible.

or maybe we used older model tomahawks without so much power, or some quds we confiscated from iraq?

the school does look flat from what remains.. the others arent particularly pointy either (compared to roofs that get snow) but i do see an indication of a slight rain grade slope.
View attachment 89008

add: the al jezeera article photo when it was still part of the military base has better graphics and it was a much different roof then the other buildigns back then
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026...s-school-strike-as-israel-us-deny-involvement
View attachment 89011

The Aljazerra article linked here gives a nice time line of the changes in this facility. The school originally being part of the military facility and later being walled off and repurposed as a school.

With respect to the weapons being used I would not expect every sign of damage being the result of a Tomahawk hit. They are expensive, and overkill for some targets. The buildings with a nice hole in the roof in the dead center of the building were possibly hit with GPS-guided gravity bombs. Internal damage to the buildings caused by bomb detonating inside the building could render it effectively destroyed. Remember there are a lot of targets being hit, using the smaller and cheaper bombs available instead of a Tomahawk allows you to reserve them for more important and hardened targets. I would not expect every building/target in a facility to be attacked with the same particular weapon.

 

[Gary C]

The Aljazerra article linked here gives a nice time line of the changes in this facility. The school originally being part of the military facility and later being walled off and repurposed as a school.

With respect to the weapons being used I would not expect every sign of damage being the result of a Tomahawk hit. They are expensive, and overkill for some targets. The buildings with a nice hole in the roof in the dead center of the building were possibly hit with GPS-guided gravity bombs. Internal damage to the buildings caused by bomb detonating inside the building could render it effectively destroyed. Remember there are a lot of targets being hit, using the smaller and cheaper bombs available instead of a Tomahawk allows you to reserve them for more important and hardened targets. I would not expect every building/target in a facility to be attacked with the same particular weapon.

That might also explain why the base was struck in two phases. Buildings thought to house some higher priority targets were possibly struck early.

 

[deirdre]

Remember there are a lot of targets being hit, using the smaller and cheaper bombs available instead of a Tomahawk allows you to reserve them for more important and hardened targets

yea but the al jeezera article makes the base sound pretty important.

Don't get me wrong i 100% believe we did strike the base, esp knowing (i read this article when it came out) the importance of the base, so i do think we made the holes... just the holes seem odd. maybe if the walls are a thick concrete the explosion kinda blows itself out. < that's not sarcasm.

Article:

The IRGC Navy embraces what is known as an "asymmetric warfare" strategy that relies on deploying fast boats, drones, and coastal missile platforms capable of disrupting shipping or targeting hostile naval vessels.

In this context, the "Sayyid al-Shuhada" military complex in Minab stands out; it includes key headquarters, most notably that of the "Asif Brigade".

The Asif missile brigade is considered one of the most important strike arms of the IRGC Navy.

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab-girls-school-strike-as-israel-us-deny-involvement

 

[fizzBuzz]

ETA: To be fair to Trump, he's had multiple parties to host, & a stunningly pointless & ineffective (see below)
"College Sports Roundtable" for some reason...
true, ethical priorities (over spending a minute or two on the tragic deaths of ~175 innocents...mostly little girls),
keeping him from paying much attention to his war of choice.

"Trump college sports meeting turns into dog and pony show with no real answers.
Trump's suggestion: "I'd like to go exactly back to what we had, and ram it through a court."

I'm convinced there's nothing you won't cry about. There's more than one issue in the world/US, ya know?

There has been a bipartisan push to come up with a solution to save college sports and the schools themselves. This has been going on for about 3-4 years now (Biden did NOTHING to help it, by the way). It's very important to a lot of people. I'm sorry you don't understand the issue and it's much broader and deeper than you obviously think it is. There have already been several universities close, where NIL (name, image, likeness) played a factor. The meeting the other day wasn't supposed to be a "solution". It was a roundtable for people in the industry to express their ideas. The to-dos from the meeting are:

1. Trump will sign an executive order in the meantime to address immediate needs
2. House members (Dems and Reps) will work with industry people (university presidents, directors, athletes, agents, etc.) to modify the Score Act (a currently proposed bipartisan bill) to push through Congress.

So far, this is a beautiful example of what a democracy is for. And you're crying about it...

 

[Gary C]

A college having to close up shop because of its sports program is the tail beating the dog to death. They are supposed to be in the education business, not the entertainment business. But Trump wants to close the department of education so you can't seriously think that improving higher education has anything to do with this.

 

[fizzBuzz]

A college having to close up shop because of its sports program is the tail beating the dog to death. They are supposed to be in the education business, not the entertainment business. But Trump wants to close the department of education so you can't seriously think that improving higher education has anything to do with this.

We're getting off topic, thanks to NoParty. But to put this nonsense to bed - there's a thing called the "Flutie Effect". There have been books written about this stuff and many studies. Here's one:

Harvard Business School study
https://www.library.hbs.edu/working-knowledge/diagnosing-the-flutie-effect-on-college-marketing

Boston College's greatest marketing campaign lasted about six seconds.

It's called the "Flutie Effect." In a 1984 game against the University of Miami, BC quarterback Doug Flutie threw a last-second "Hail Mary" pass 48 yards that was miraculously caught for a game-winning touchdown—a climactic capper on one of the most exciting college football games ever.

The play put BC on the map for college aspirants. In two years, applications had shot up 30 percent.

and this is no anomaly

His findings include:

• When a school rises from mediocre to great on the gridiron, applications increase by 17.7 percent.
• To attain similar effects, a school has to either lower tuition by 3.8 percent or increase the quality of its education by recruiting higher-quality faculty, who are paid 5.1 percent more than their average peers in the academic labor market.
• Students with lower-than-average SAT scores tended to have a stronger preference for schools known for athletic success, while students with higher SAT scores preferred institutions with greater academic quality. Also, students with lower academic prowess valued the success of intercollegiate athletics for longer periods of time than the high SAT achievers.
• Even students with high SAT scores are significantly affected by athletic success—one of the biggest surprises from the research, Chung says.
• Schools become more academically selective with athletic success.

Can y'all quit making things up, please. College sports matter to the university. Not to mention the tens of thousands of student-athletes from low-income or underprivileged backgrounds who are able to obtain a college degree through scholarship when they, otherwise, wouldn't be able to.

 

[Ann K]

Harvard Business School study

So to persuade us that sports matter to schools, you quote a study from a school that does not depend on sports?

 

[fizzBuzz]

So to persuade us that sports matter to schools, you quote a study from a school that does not depend on sports?

It doesn't matter what study I chose, you guys will make up a reason to dismiss it.

 

[Mendel]

This is a derail. Sports only came up because Trump comes across as uninformed about a war he has started, in a way that I feel no other international leader would. And we know it's not for lack of time, since he does have time in his schedule to spend on sports.

 

[NoParty]

It "was done by Iran."
Brought to you by the man who stopped the UIkraine war on his first day in office.

Much more evidence, from CBS
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-bombing-girls-school-assessment/

 

[NoParty]

This is a derail. Sports only came up because Trump comes across as uninformed about a war he has started, in a way that I feel no other international leader would. And we know it's not for lack of time, since he does have time in his schedule to spend on sports.

He appeared to know literally nothing.

How in the world is college sports a priority now, during Trump's war?

And who wants the input of the dumbest guy in the room?
Trump might literally be the WORST person in the world to "help""
He almost single-handed ruined the USFL...I was a huge fan, I know all the details.
An entire, excellent football league, providing rabid fans with almost year round football,
was all wrecked because the Donald whined that the USFL would be "small potatoes" if they didn't take the NFL head on...
Pretty much as soon as the USFL let Trump "help" negotiate, he helped the league out of business.
Trump's destruction of the USFL makes "New Coke" look like genius...

 

[John J.]

Much more evidence, from CBS
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-bombing-girls-school-assessment/

Quoting the article,

The preliminary U.S. assessment suggests that the United States is "likely" responsible for the deadly attack but did not intentionally target the school and may have hit it in error, possibly due to the use of dated intelligence which wrongly identified the area as still part of an Iranian military installation, a person briefed on the preliminary intelligence told CBS News.
Israel's military was also not operating in the area, two sources told CBS News.

An additional source familiar with the ongoing inquiry told CBS News that investigators believe the U.S. military may have been responsible because it was operating in the area while Israel's military was not, though no final conclusions have been reached.

And an Israeli government source told CBS News that Israel was not behind the attack and its military was not operating near the school.

We should always be wary of news stories based on anonymous sources,

...a person briefed on the preliminary intelligence told CBS News

(and the "two sources"), but this report might correlate with what else is known, including a filmed probable Tomahawk strike nearby (Israel doesn't have Tomahawk), see post #120.

 

[Gary C]

The next thing I would ask for if I were doing an investigation is the Target Information Package (TIP) for the IRGC base that was developed by the CENTCOM targeting cell and passed to a tactical unit for execution per the ATO. In researching this I've learned that the TIP has been replaced in most cases by an Electronic Targeting Folder, a training example of which can be viewed here - https://victoria.vcsg8.com/missionmaking/etf

The HQ conducting the target analysis examines all the available data on the target, estimates risks to friendly forces, estimates collateral damage risks, and selects numbers and types of weapons predicted to achieve the best military result. Everything the unit conducting an air or missile strike knows about the mission is contained in the electronic targeting folder included in that day's ATO.

Because we know that base and adjacent buildings received multiple precise hits, it should be possible to match up the impacts in the post strike photos one-for-one with the aim points specified in the Electronic Targeting Folder.

 

[NoParty]

Quoting the article,

The preliminary U.S. assessment suggests that the United States is "likely" responsible for the deadly attack but did not intentionally target the school and may have hit it in error, possibly due to the use of dated intelligence which wrongly identified the area as still part of an Iranian military installation, a person briefed on the preliminary intelligence told CBS News.
Israel's military was also not operating in the area, two sources told CBS News.

An additional source familiar with the ongoing inquiry told CBS News that investigators believe the U.S. military may have been responsible because it was operating in the area while Israel's military was not, though no final conclusions have been reached.

And an Israeli government source told CBS News that Israel was not behind the attack and its military was not operating near the school.

We should always be wary of news stories based on anonymous sources,

...a person briefed on the preliminary intelligence told CBS News

(and the "two sources"), but this report might correlate with what else is known, including a filmed probable Tomahawk strike nearby (Israel doesn't have Tomahawk), see post #120.

Yes, there has been remarkable consistency from virtually every news source that has examined this...
the US government really seems to be the only ones bucking the trend, and even there, Hegseth, Rubio, Leavitt, etc.,
are never actually denying that the school was bombed by the US...they just keep issuing carefully worded statements
emphasizing that we wouldn't do it on purpose, but in a way that will deliberately mislead many people into thinking
we are denying it.

Trump, himself, of course, is the outlier: He boldly says Iran did it, offering zero details & zero evidence. It will not age well.

 

[Gary C]

Once you have CENTCOM's ATO, NSL, and the Electronic Targeting Folder(s) for the day of the attack, you can request the daily reports from tactical unit that flew or fired the mission. If the unit was able to execute the mission as specified, all of the data should line up. If there were deviations caused by weather, equipment malfunctions, problems with support from another unit, etc, they should be noted in the daily report.

Example: On the night of 1-2 June, 2015 during the operations against ISIS, massive collateral damage from a US strike destroyed much of the village of Al Hawijah, Iraq. A redacted extract from the investigation is available here. - https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/c-6-2-15-iraq/055d09f8f8b256a4/full.pdf

Although this appears to have dragged on into mid August, the investigators were able to get the necessary data from CENTCOM and the supporting units in order to determine the chain of events that lead to 70+ civilian deaths. The investigators and CENTCOM officials discuss the target, the mission, parts of the planning process, weapons selection, and related issues.

tl;dr - ISIS had stored MUCH more explosive material inside the site than planners expected.

 

[fizzBuzz]

Once you have CENTCOM's ATO, NSL, and the Electronic Targeting Folder(s) for the day of the attack, you can request the daily reports from tactical unit that flew or fired the mission. If the unit was able to execute the mission as specified, all of the data should line up. If there were deviations caused by weather, equipment malfunctions, problems with support from another unit, etc, they should be noted in the daily report.

But Gary, we don't have all this and it's so much easier and rational to jump to conclusions and blame it on the US and claim they are covering it up.

 

[deirdre]

Although this appears to have dragged on into mid August,

jeez these things take 2 and a half months? I was figuring at least 3 weeks, but not 10 or 11.

 

[fizzBuzz]

jeez these things take 2 and a half months? I was figuring at least 3 weeks, but not 10 or 11.

The investigation should take 1-2 days, else they're covering it up.

Am I doing this right?

 

[deirdre]

Am I doing this right?

no. reread the threads opening post.

 

[Gary C]

The investigation should take 1-2 days, else they're covering it up.

Am I doing this right?

If this was a missile strike, as suggested, all the basic info could certainly be on Hegseth's desk in two days. Everything resides in a database now. If you had any questions, another couple days to pull up the electronic version of the paper trail for the allegedly outdated data CENTCOM used. There are no sites to inspect or witnesses to track down at this point that would change the basic outlines of the story.

The base was probably identified through a combination of satellite photo reconnaissance and signals intelligence. If you are looking for known types of bunkers or trying to find the commanders and principle staff of specific IRGC units, you can use the massive technological prowess of our national intelligence community to ferret them out. What sort of electronic signature does a school have?

IMO this tragedy is a consequence of how we wage modern war.

 

[fizzBuzz]

If this was a missile strike, as suggested, all the basic info could certainly be on Hegseth's desk in two days. Everything resides in a database now. If you had any questions, another couple days to pull up the electronic version of the paper trail for the allegedly outdated data CENTCOM used. There are no sites to inspect or witnesses to track down at this point that would change the basic outlines of the story.

The base was probably identified through a combination of satellite photo reconnaissance and signals intelligence. If you are looking for known types of bunkers or trying to find the commanders and principle staff of specific IRGC units, you can use the massive technological prowess of our national intelligence community to ferret them out. What sort of electronic signature does a school have?

IMO this tragedy is a consequence of how we wage modern war.

Perhaps you're right, I have no clue. I appreciate your honest research on this instead of blind speculation, as others have shown. My jabs aren't directed at you.

But I do wonder why it took so long in your 2015 example. Maybe things were done a bit differently 10 years ago?

 

[Gary C]

Perhaps you're right, I have no clue. I appreciate your honest research on this instead of blind speculation, as others have shown. My jabs aren't directed at you.

But I do wonder why it took so long in your 2015 example. Maybe things were done a bit differently 10 years ago?

After ten years it's hard to say. I don't recall the NYT story to be honest as that was a pretty bad time for us personally.

Ultimately, you always end up going to war with imperfect intelligence. That's just one more reason you should avoid going to war.

 

[Giddierone]

More from the NYTimes today. Including General Dan Caine's diagram showing that Minab was on the list of target locations.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/08/world/middleeast/iran-minab-school-strike.html

and yesterday's article includes fragments of a weapon with US markings on it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/...e_code=1.SFA.tGPX.ufPBWGV5zeib&smid=url-share

 

[Gary C]

From the second article-

While it is not clear where or how the fragments were recovered — or whether they pertain specifically to the school strike — they contain serial numbers and other details that are consistent with how the Department of Defense and its suppliers categorize and label munitions. The remnants appear to be from a U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missile manufactured in 2014 or later.

IOW their provenance is unknown. The Iranians currently have a few hundred tons of debris from US made weapons to choose from.

The map confirms our earlier sources that it was US forces operating in the Minab area.