Is this a Chinese spy balloon?

[Ann K]

Just out and reported by CNN, what is believed to be a Chinese surveillance balloon is crossing the USA. At the moment the decision has been made not to try to bring it down. I'm sure there'll be more said about this in upcoming days ...and the conspiracy theories will probably follow.

The US is tracking a suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon over the continental United States, a senior defense official said on Thursday.

The Pentagon has been tracking the balloon for several days as it made its way over the northern United States, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said.

“We are confident that this high-altitude surveillance balloon belongs to the [People’s Republic of China],” the senior defense official said. “Instances of this activity have been observed over the past several years, including prior to this administration.”

Content from External Source

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html

 

[Mick West]

Is anyone suggesting it's not what the Pentagon says it is? It looks like a human-made balloon.

 

[Mick West]

Supposed video here, but looks different. The dark bits are in a line rather than side by side.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBfj_VIBo44



Comments suggest this one might be commercial US.

 

[RatkingDBK]

This is incredibly interesting! This balloon, or similar models to this balloon have been spotted numerous times over the past 1-2 years. I've only been searching for similar incidents for the past hour or so but there appear to be at least 2 - 3 other sightings. And the balloon machine seems to be the exact same.

The first spotting that I can find is an appearance over areas of Japan such as Sendai, Hachinohe City in September 2021



It was spotted over Kuai, Hawaii in February 2022.



Another time over the Andaman Islands in January, 2022.


Here is an interesting sketch that seems to show a close look at the machine

 

[RatkingDBK]

This is the best video i've seen of the craft

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kX2xT2XNqk

 

[JMartJr]

I am curious... what would be the purpose/advantage of a surveillance balloon in the age of satellites?

 

[RatkingDBK]

Here seems to be another sighting just today in Costa Rica.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C4AJK6YeqoI


The balloon doesn't seem particularly stealthy especially when winds are slow and its just hovering over land.

 

[RatkingDBK]

I am curious... what would be the purpose/advantage of a surveillance balloon in the age of satellites?

Perhaps the purpose of the balloon is not surveillance and instead to act as a bait target for other countries defense systems.

Maybe China has grown so confident that they feel as though they can do this and not face serious repercussions. And so far, it looks like its true.

 

[Duke]

This is incredibly interesting! This balloon, or similar models to this balloon have been spotted numerous times over the past 1-2 years. I've only been searching for similar incidents for the past hour or so but there appear to be at least 2 - 3 other sightings. And the balloon machine seems to be the exact same.

The first spotting that I can find is an appearance over areas of Japan such as Sendai, Hachinohe City in September 2021



It was spotted over Kuai, Hawaii in February 2022.



Another time over the Andaman Islands in January, 2022.


Here is an interesting sketch that seems to show a close look at the machine

What is the source of the sketch you provided? Please provide a link. I wonder if we have anyone here who reads Japanese? I'd like to know what the sketch has to say about the suspended antenna array.

Have you found any reference as to what altitude it's at. Supposedly it's above commercial air traffic, so at least 50K ft I'd guess. I would bet we've had/will have ELINT a/c up there snooping to see if it's transmitting.

 

[RatkingDBK]

What is the source of the sketch you provided? Please provide a link. I wonder if we have anyone here who reads Japanese? I'd like to know what the sketch has to say about the suspended antenna array.

Have you found any reference as to what altitude it's at. Supposedly it's above commercial air traffic, so at least 50K ft I'd guess. I would bet we've had/will have ELINT a/c up there snooping to see if it's transmitting.

The source is this image gallery

Source: https://imgur.com/gallery/s3FinkR#tUjSMPL

I'm having troubles locating the source from which this gallery pulled that image.

I haven't seen any references about it's altitude.

https://twitter.com/i/events/1273118068965662720

This video (10 seconds in) shows the propellers pretty clearly.

 

[Mendel]

Is there any information on what evidence they're attributing this to China?

Article:

The Flight of the Lockheed Martin ARC Amateur Radio Balloon Repeater

Source: https://kv5r.com/ham-radio/balloon-repeater/

Depending on its purpose, such a ham radio repeater might carry different antennas.

 

[AmberRobot]

I am curious... what would be the purpose/advantage of a surveillance balloon in the age of satellites?

You could do higher resolution imagery (closer to target) for lower costs.

 

[RatkingDBK]

Is there any information on what evidence they're attributing this to China?

Article:

The Flight of the Lockheed Martin ARC Amateur Radio Balloon Repeater

Source: https://kv5r.com/ham-radio/balloon-repeater/

Depending on its purpose, such a ham radio repeater might carry different antennas.

They have been tracking the balloon and are able to conclusively say the balloon is Chinese.
I believe this to be the flight path for the balloon



Source - Source: https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1621293636943052801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1621293636943052801%7Ctwgr%5Ed7b5ae6d0ca90374b2af1f910fd7a783264be53e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fchinas-spy-balloon-over-montana-is-part-of-a-larger-more-troubling-pattern



More information about when they started tracking it

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...kground-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/

 

[RatkingDBK]

To me, this seems like the most likely explanation at the moment.

"Retired Col. Steve Ganyard, an ABC News contributor, said the balloon looked to be a standard research vessel -- which would mean it was unpowered and drifted with the jet stream."

Nothing nefarious just poor control of their machinery. And this would explain why previous sightings were not escalated.

Could be wrong.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chinese-spy-balloon-surveilling-us-senior-official/story?id=96860718

 

[Mendel]

Thank you!

They have been tracking the balloon and are able to conclusively say the balloon is Chinese.
I believe this to be the flight path for the balloon



Source - Source: https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1621293636943052801?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1621293636943052801%7Ctwgr%5Ed7b5ae6d0ca90374b2af1f910fd7a783264be53e%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fchinas-spy-balloon-over-montana-is-part-of-a-larger-more-troubling-pattern

Dan Satterfield is Chief Meteorologist for the CBS affiliate WBOC TV in Salisbury, Maryland. The graph is not an actual track of the balloon, but it's rather what you get if you use a metereological wind model to predict where the balloon would've come from, assuming the wind blew it to its current position. That doesn't exclude the possibility that it originated in Alaska or Canada or Japan.

The only actual tracked position on that graph is the black star, all of the red line has been computed from the metereological model.

More information about when they started tracking it

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...kground-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/

We did assess that it was large enough to cause damage from the debris field if we downed it over an area. We had been looking at whether there was an option yesterday over some sparsely populated areas in Montana. But we just couldn't buy down the risk enough to feel comfortable recommending shooting it down yesterday.

Content from External Source

And, I'm sorry, how long have we been tracking it. I'm not going to go into all the details because I don't want to reveal sensitive information. But I will say we have been tracking it for some time. And we have had custody of it the entire time it has been over U.S. airspace, entered the continental United States airspace a couple of days ago.

Content from External Source

Two observations:
• it's not clear when they started tracking it
• they thought about shooting it down over Montana, but did not shoot it down over Alaska, which is even more sparsely populated.

 

[jplaza]

Call me skeptic, but I find it hard to believe you would spy a country thousands of km away, by using a balloon that depends on the wind changes. You just can't accurately predict where it will be in a few days.

 

[Ravi]

You could do higher resolution imagery (closer to target) for lower costs.

I think there are no optical telescopes on this one, but I could be wrong. Or do you think it is a kind of radar system?

 

[Duke]

I think there are no optical telescopes on this one, but I could be wrong. Or do you think it is a kind of radar system?

If it's intent is to spy, more likely it's gathering signals intelligence than taking photographs. Translation of the sketch notations posted by @RatkingDBK might provide more insight as to the purpose/capabilities of the suspended antenna array, and as a result its mission.

 

[DavidB66]

This video (10 seconds in) shows the propellers pretty clearly.

The video does seem to show some parts of the payload moving (rotating around a horizontal axis), but I doubt they are propellers. Whatever they are, they are small in relation to the balloon, and without some means of stabilization (such as the tail vanes of Zeppelins and other dirigibles) they would most likely just spin the balloon around. Maybe they have some role in pointing the instruments in the intended direction?

 

[Duke]

The video does seem to show some parts of the payload moving (rotating around a horizontal axis), but I doubt they are propellers. Whatever they are, they are small in relation to the balloon, and without some means of stabilization (such as the tail vanes of Zeppelins and other dirigibles) they would most likely just spin the balloon around. Maybe they have some role in pointing the instruments in the intended direction?

Or wind turbines used to generate electrical power to run whatever electronic gizmos the balloon is carrying.

 

[Duke]

Call me skeptic, but I find it hard to believe you would spy a country thousands of km away, by using a balloon that depends on the wind changes. You just can't accurately predict where it will be in a few days.

Balloons are steerable to some degree by changing altitudes to pickup winds aloft of varying speeds/directions at differing heights. This is how the Loon balloons were directed to desired locations around the world to provide internet access to isolated locations.

The balloons were maneuvered by adjusting their altitude in the stratosphere to float to a wind layer after identifying the wind layer with the desired speed and direction using wind data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Content from External Source

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_LLC#:~:text=Loon LLC was an Alphabet,to 1 Mbit/s speeds.

 

[deirdre]

I wonder if we have anyone here who reads Japanese? I'd like to know what the sketch has to say about the suspended antenna array.

Note: i picked "Japanese" as translation...(since it was spotted and reported over japan

according to google translate
Suspended by string Possibility of autonomous control (similar to the paddle wheel of a steamship)
ひもでつっている 自律制御の 可能性あり、 (蒸気船の外輪に 酷似)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
this section says , according to google translate


Character part body] Rotating blade Solar power panel?
字部本体〕 回転翼 太陽光発電 パネル? 半とうめいなか 遠いとよく見えない
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
top part says

官成果 30000 上海(太平洋上) 姿勢判10
Official result 30000 Shanghai (over the Pacific) Attitude 10

Translation of the sketch notations posted by @RatkingDBK might provide more insight as to the purpose/capabilities of the suspended antenna array, and as a result its mission.

note i dont see an array on the OP balloon.

 

[jplaza]

Balloons are steerable to some degree by changing altitudes to pickup winds aloft of varying speeds/directions at differing heights. This is how the Loon balloons were directed to desired locations around the world to provide internet access to isolated locations.

The balloons were maneuvered by adjusting their altitude in the stratosphere to float to a wind layer after identifying the wind layer with the desired speed and direction using wind data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Content from External Source

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_LLC#:~:text=Loon LLC was an Alphabet,to 1 Mbit/s speeds.

That would make the trajectory calculation brought by @RatkingDBK in #13 useless....

Anyway, I guess the best way to finding out is shooting it down and inspect it.

 

[deirdre]

@Duke i couldnt find origin of sketch but this article seems to mimic the Google translate...so this might give you a clue where to look

Article:

june, 2020 SENDAI -- Officials in the northeastern Japan prefecture of Miyagi have concluded that the owner and purpose of a white balloon-like object that was seen drifting mysteriously in the skies above the prefecture on June 17 cannot be determined.

The prefecture's crisis response division confirmed that the object was equipped with a cross part hanging beneath it as well as two propellers. However, it was drifting at an altitude of at least 3,000 meters, and it was not possible for authorities to approach it by helicopter.

Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200704/p2a/00m/0na/002000c

 

[Mendel]

Anyway, I guess the best way to finding out is shooting it down and inspect it.

shooting down a foreign vessel in peacetime is often a bad idea

 

[deirdre]

The dark bits are in a line rather than side by side.

based on this pic (old one, not current balloon) the dots may just be the array underneath? or just a different angle of the dots on the balloon.
https://shop12.rededobem.org/content?c=仙台 白い&id=7



original page that pic is from, with other similar phtotos https://shop12.rededobem.org/category?name=仙台 白い

a bit clearer

 

[Ravi]

Probably many, in the possession of a large aperture telescope (say, 12" or up), already have looked at it, as it's slow moving.
That way you can for sure determine what is hanging underneath in greater spatial detail. Likely the military has done so a long time ago.

 

[Duke]

shooting down a foreign vessel in peacetime is often a bad idea

Not if the balloon is in your airspace and/or can be perceived as threat to aerial navigation, especially if it doesn't meet international conventions (ICAO) and/or violates a nation's aerial navigation laws. I know the Loon guys had to jump through hoops to get overflight approval for various nations they would transit.

All that said, shooting the thing down would be easy, but tough to know where the latex, instrumentation packages, batteries, etc., and munitions used to take it down (probably ball/target 20 mm rounds) will land. Bad look for the administration if we shot the thing down and the bits/rounds wound up hitting a school.

 

[jarlrmai]

shooting down a foreign vessel in peacetime is often a bad idea

That and shooting it down would likely destroy it, letting it fly and tracking it might lead to it more gently coming to earth where it can be examined.

Not to mention any possible sigint that is going on based on if it is transmitting/receiving radio.

 

[DavidB66]

Or wind turbines used to generate electrical power to run whatever electronic gizmos the balloon is carrying.

Would that work if the balloon is drifting at the same speed as the wind? Maybe if there is some kind of updraft, which the weight of the balloon resists? Or could it work from variations in wind speed? If the wind alternately speeds up and slows down, the inertia of the balloon and its payload means it would not respond instantly to the variations, and the difference between the speed of the balloon and the wind might give enough scope for a turbine to work.

 

[Ravi]

That and shooting it down would likely destroy it, letting it fly and tracking it might lead to it more gently coming to earth where it can be examined.

Not to mention any possible sigint that is going on based on if it is transmitting/receiving radio.

Indeed, why not catch it? It does not have to be destroyed. Small hole in the balloon and it will slowly come down?

 

[Matt33]

The Chinese foreign ministry claimed Friday that the suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon flying over the continental United States is a "civilian airship" used mainly for weather research that deviated from its planned course.

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/index.html

Weather balloon off course sounds legit to me. For spying they surely have better means.

 

[Ann K]

Indeed, why not catch it? It does not have to be destroyed. Small hole in the balloon and it will slowly come down?

That's pretty hard to judge. Whatever it's punctured with, there's no guarantee it won't just rip open on contact.

 

[Duke]

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/index.html

Weather balloon off course sounds legit to me. For spying they surely have better means.

Same thing we said about Gary Powers' U-2, a weather flight off course.

 

[Ann K]

China is being very apologetic, but Blinken has decided to cencel his planned visit.

The Biden administration has decided to postpone Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s upcoming trip to Beijing after detecting a Chinese surveillance balloon that was lingering at high altitude over sensitive nuclear sites in Montana, according to two officials.

Blinken was set to have meetings in Beijing early next week in the first such visit by a top US diplomat in five years. But the presence of the balloon — which the Pentagon decided not to shoot down — led officials to decide that going now would send the wrong signal, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified discussing internal deliberations.

Content from External Source

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-over-its-spy-balloon?leadSource=uverify wall

 

[RTM]

I already see UFOTwitter using the quick identification of this as a way to play up the inability to identify some of the Navy UFOs.

 

[deirdre]

Article:

The balloon is currently traveling at altitude well above commercial air traffic."
...
The high-altitude reconnaissance balloon was not the first such craft to pass over the U.S. in this way, a senior defense official said in a briefing.

A separate senior official told ABC News the balloon is the size of three buses and complete with a technology bay, which the defense official said they "wouldn't characterize" as "revolutionary."

The defense official said they "are confident" the balloon was sent by China.

"Instances of this activity have been observed over the past several years, including prior to this administration," the official said, noting that "it's happened a handful of other times over the past few years ... It is appearing to hang out for a longer period of time this time around."
...
the Chinese Foreign Ministry posted an updated statement on its website, admitting that the "airship comes from China" but "is of a civil nature and is used for meteorological and other scientific research."

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/chinese-spy-balloon-surveilling-us-senior-official/story?id=96860718

 

[Mendel]

Not if the balloon is in your airspace and/or can be perceived as threat to aerial navigation, especially if it doesn't meet international conventions (ICAO) and/or violates a nation's aerial navigation laws.

Article:

The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic, and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground.

Source: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/

 

[Mendel]

https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/index.html

Weather balloon off course sounds legit to me. For spying they surely have better means.

Metabunk's link policy (see the "Info" section on the nav bar) asks us to quote the relevant parts of the content you're linking.

The suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon flying over the continental US entered the US airspace “due to force majeure,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Friday, confirming the airship was from China.

“It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course. The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

“The Chinese side will continue communicating with the US side and properly handle this unexpected situation caused by force majeure,” the statement added.

Content from External Source

 

[Duke]

Article:

The balloon is currently traveling at an altitude well above commercial air traffic, and does not present a military or physical threat to people on the ground.

Source: https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/

Which is why I said "and/or."