Is this a Chinese spy balloon?
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DavidB66
Senior Member.
Today's Sunday Times (UK, paywalled, and apparently finalised before the balloon was shot down), has a long article about the case. It includes the following paragraph:
No source is cited for these claims. The article itself is credited to Ian Williams, author of a book The Fires of the Dragon: China's New Cold War.
Rising and falling in the atmosphere to take advantage of currents at different altitudes would indeed give a balloon some influence over its movement. A traditional hydrogen or helium balloon could rise by dumping sand or other ballast, or by pumping more gas into the envelope from a pressurised container. It could fall by venting a controlled amount of gas from the envelope into the atmosphere. A hot air balloon could rise by turning up the heat, or fall by turning it down and allowing the air in the envelope to cool.
These methods all have limitations. The supplies of fuel, gas, or ballast carried by the balloon cannot be replenished in flight, and must run out eventually. (With solar power available, air in the balloon could in principle be heated renewably, but the set-up of the Chinese balloon doesn't appear to provide for this.) Even if the relevant supplies have not run out, the ability to control the speed or direction of the balloon's movement would also depend on the existence of suitable air currents, and I don't see any way of guaranteeing this.
The available images and videos of the balloon don't show any obvious means of controlling altitude, such as ballast or gas tanks. There may be some provision for venting gas, which might not be easily visible, as we can't see the top of the balloon.
Others here may know more about the alleged US experiments with high-altitude balloons, which would give some idea of what is currently considered viable technology.
No source is cited for these claims. The article itself is credited to Ian Williams, author of a book The Fires of the Dragon: China's New Cold War.
Rising and falling in the atmosphere to take advantage of currents at different altitudes would indeed give a balloon some influence over its movement. A traditional hydrogen or helium balloon could rise by dumping sand or other ballast, or by pumping more gas into the envelope from a pressurised container. It could fall by venting a controlled amount of gas from the envelope into the atmosphere. A hot air balloon could rise by turning up the heat, or fall by turning it down and allowing the air in the envelope to cool.
These methods all have limitations. The supplies of fuel, gas, or ballast carried by the balloon cannot be replenished in flight, and must run out eventually. (With solar power available, air in the balloon could in principle be heated renewably, but the set-up of the Chinese balloon doesn't appear to provide for this.) Even if the relevant supplies have not run out, the ability to control the speed or direction of the balloon's movement would also depend on the existence of suitable air currents, and I don't see any way of guaranteeing this.
The available images and videos of the balloon don't show any obvious means of controlling altitude, such as ballast or gas tanks. There may be some provision for venting gas, which might not be easily visible, as we can't see the top of the balloon.
Others here may know more about the alleged US experiments with high-altitude balloons, which would give some idea of what is currently considered viable technology.
I think we have to wait and see. About the balloon itself, it seems to have slowly come down in one piece, perhaps minus any pieces torn off by the exploding missile. I understand that opinions are prohibited in this forum but if they were allowed mine would be that we are dealing with a completely benign research balloon that took a path matching stratospheric winds. The Chinese have explained and ACTUALLY APOLOGIZED! The US refuses to accept that and prefers to maintain the "spy balloon" position. I hope for the time when cooler and more logical heads surface in our government. It may take a while.
I wish you all success in this well structured forum. It's just not my style and I don't belong here . . .
Duke
Senior Member.
Agreed. We learned a valuable lesson after the shoot down of the KAL 747 in 1983. Against the advice of the DoD, President Reagan ordered the release of data and voice intercepts obtained through SIGINT means to prove the Soviets were lying when they denied shooting down the a/c. That data was presented in detail at the UN, and snippets of the voice intercepts were actually played during Mr Reagan's address to the American people on live TV. I remember watching that address.
While he proved the Soviets did shoot down the 747, in doing so he revealed sources/means/methods that limited the effectiveness of those capabilities in the (then) immediate future as we literally told our adversaries were what we could do/had gathered.
Bottom line, you do not want the other guy to know what you know and of your ability to get that data/information.
Duke
Senior Member.
You neglected to mentioned your repentant PRC made threats after the shootdown.
https://apnews.com/article/politics...tony-blinken-51e49202f2a0a50541cde059934c4cfbExternal Quote:
Z.W. Wolf
Senior Member.
Possible debris from Chinese balloon spotted at boat ramp
Not much to go on here.
This is just a warning from local police not to touch suspected debris that has washed ashore, as it is part of a Federal investigation, but to simply report it.
Footage showing many pieces shredding away as it descends.
Not much to go on here.
https://www.wmbfnews.com/2023/02/04...chinese-balloon-spotted-grand-strand-pee-dee/
This is just a warning from local police not to touch suspected debris that has washed ashore, as it is part of a Federal investigation, but to simply report it.
Footage showing many pieces shredding away as it descends.
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Duke
Senior Member.
Should not be too long before we see "Chinese Balloon Pieces" for sale on eBay.
DavidB66
Senior Member.
From one of the documents linked at #126 above:
Either:
1. The Pentagon has been misreported.
2. A Pentagon spokesperson has misused the term 'hovering' when they just mean something like 'not moving noticeably for some time'.
3. The balloon really does have the ability to maintain its position steady over a point on the ground, unlike most balloons.
4. The Pentagon, or at least a Pentagon spokesperson, is ignorant of basic physics.
I don't think we can rule out any of these. Option 3 would be most interesting. Option 4 would be worrying.
Either:
1. The Pentagon has been misreported.
2. A Pentagon spokesperson has misused the term 'hovering' when they just mean something like 'not moving noticeably for some time'.
3. The balloon really does have the ability to maintain its position steady over a point on the ground, unlike most balloons.
4. The Pentagon, or at least a Pentagon spokesperson, is ignorant of basic physics.
I don't think we can rule out any of these. Option 3 would be most interesting. Option 4 would be worrying.
Hevach
Senior Member.
The US has more and probably better satellites but still uses balloons.
Satellites have a major disadvantage: there's no stealth in space. You can't conceal an orbital class launch and once one is detected it can be matched to its COSPAR or NORAD numbers and you'll know right where it is, what its orbit is like, when it maneuvers, when it will pass overhead, etc. They also have a minor disadvantage that once launched you have a strict limit on how much you can change where it's going, if you want to image, say, a North Korean launch site and your closest satellite is going to pass a hundred miles east, you'll need to expend propellant to change its orbit and if that's not in the delta-v budget or the order comes down too late then you're just not getting your pictures.
Everything satellites do, from communications to telescopes, is also done with stratospheric balloons with varying advantages and disadvantages.
deirdre
Senior Member.
Article: Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds an On-Camera Press Briefing
Feb. 3, 2023Brigadier General Pat Ryder, Pentagon Press Secretary
...
GEN. RYDER: Yeah, so again, this is a surveillance balloon, hover — you know, operating at about 60,000 feet. Clearly, you know, we did a — a very close assessment, in terms of what it's doing. And as I mentioned, military commanders have assessed that there is no physical or military threat to people on the ground. And so in that regard, we'll continue to monitor.
timestamp of quote 11:55
Source: https://youtu.be/4r9wp3OZblI?t=665
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JMartJr
Senior Member.
Sorry, but I break out in hives when told that the evidence that can't be seen by anybody else, or the knowledge only accessible by the poster, proves the point under discussion. Our brethren and sistren over in the UFO community has have sensitized me to that. If you are unable or unwilling to back up the affirmative claims you are making, there is probably not much else to discuss on this topic. If the super secret evidence to which I shouldn't assume you have no more access than I have ever comes out, I'll meet you back here.
JMartJr
Senior Member.
Which raises the question of whether there were more of them... if you can't aim accurately, fire a lot of shots and hope one hits your target. Might also explain a simultaneous balloon over Costa Rica.
Slightly off thread.... I often post links to plane tracking and satellite tracking websites on here but did you know that you can track Weather Balloons all around the world....
https://sondehub.org/
Amateur balloons can be tracked here
https://amateur.sondehub.org/
Root page is https://habhub.org/
https://sondehub.org/
Amateur balloons can be tracked here
https://amateur.sondehub.org/
Root page is https://habhub.org/
It's interesting that most of the arrow points don't align with some posted tracks. Also,
1. Is true much of the time. Alternatively the Pentagon is wrong, and having done contracts for them they are not all genius level.
2. We know the jet stream, aka Wiley Post, 1931, is variable. He got up to+200 mph Eastbound when he discovered it over Oklahoma.
3. Nope, not a chance
4. Yes, see my number 1.
My experience is that the Pentagon often misreports itself.
I present a new challenge. Can anyone provide a tiny bit of evidence that the balloon is on a spy mission? Just anything solid? I can't.
Superb Pictures. Looks like the Sidewinder didn't destroy the equipment. Wonder about ocean impact next.
It's not our responsibility to prove that this balloon is a spy device.
It is the responsibility of the Chinese government to inform other countries of their so called 'civilian weather balloon' activities when they conduct them, or when their balloon gets loose. It is their responsibly to make clear the nature of the craft to the public.
They didn't do that seemingly once over the past 3-4+ years of sightings and now all the sudden we're expected to give them the benefit of the doubt?
On Friday, the Chinese foreign ministry said it "regrets the unintended entry," and responded by saying, "It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course."
deirdre
Senior Member.
mainly? what are the other purposes?
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Duke
Senior Member.
Very interesting. So if they are being tracked, probably means they have transponders. So why do weather balloons have transponders? Maybe because of some international convention or agreement? Possibly through ICAO? And if such a requirement exists, does it apply only to weather balloons, or to any balloon that could pose a threat to air travel? I'd bet on the latter. I've not read anywhere about the PRC destroyed on Saturday balloon squawking a transponder signal.
Have you gotten familiar enough with this weather balloon tracker to know if you can go back in time to look at activity on specific dates in specific locations? I'm curious if the PRC balloon showed up on this designated weather balloon tracker at anytime since its launch? If there is a look back capability, should be doable to see if it showed over Montana whatever data/time(s) if was last week it was noticed/reported there.
If it didn't show anywhere on the tracker last week as I suspect, the obvious question is why? Assuming the Chinese were honest about it being a civilian airship engaged in meteorological research, shouldn't it appear on that tracker? And further assuming it was not squawking, did the PRC violate any international agreement/convention by not doing so?
To be a bit pedantic - they don't have a transponder (which respond to another station's request), they have a location beacon that continually transmits the balloons location and other data. I think the two main reason they have them is 1) so that they can recover them when they eventually fall to earth and 2) so that some of the met data is updated and logged in real-time, so it isn't a wasted flight if it isn't recovered.
Yes , you can go back in time and see the historic position of balloons and telemetry data for up to 12 hrs. I havent found a way of replaying data from days or weeks in the past.
You can also the predicted path of the balloon based on current weather conditions.
https://predict.sondehub.org/?launc...pe=single&burst_altitude=30000&descent_rate=5
The Chinese balloon wasn't on this site.
jackfrostvc
Senior Member
Interesting, in 2020 , the intel community assessed that much smaller balloons detected off the Virginia coast were Chinese radar jamming devices
Article: At lower levels, officials have tracked multiple instances of balloon activity over U.S. territories in recent years. One of the Trump-era balloons hovered over Guam, according to two U.S. officials. And in 2020, the intelligence community assessed that much smaller balloons detected off the coast of Virginia were Chinese radar-jamming devices, according to a former senior DoD official.
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Mendel
Senior Member.
I wonder about some facts.
If the Chinese knew where the balloon was, and were capable of controlling it, then they should've notified civil air traffic control, as far as I understand the relevant regulations. It seems that they did not do that.
If China had lost track of the balloon, I'd consider it a derelict, and in that case anybody was free to do anything with it (such as shooting it down).
Based on this, I don't understand Chinese objections to having it shot down.
---
There shouldn't be much secrecy concerning the debris of the balloon, if recovered: the Chinese already know what it is, and we all know how the US obtained it.
If the Chinese knew where the balloon was, and were capable of controlling it, then they should've notified civil air traffic control, as far as I understand the relevant regulations. It seems that they did not do that.
If China had lost track of the balloon, I'd consider it a derelict, and in that case anybody was free to do anything with it (such as shooting it down).
Based on this, I don't understand Chinese objections to having it shot down.
---
There shouldn't be much secrecy concerning the debris of the balloon, if recovered: the Chinese already know what it is, and we all know how the US obtained it.
NorCal Dave
Senior Member.
Interesting article I saw about the US using U2s to track and possibly monitor the balloon. It's a longer article that even gets into the UAP report, but here are some highlights:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-2-spy-planes-snooped-on-chinese-surveillance-balloon/ar-AA17bdwL
External Quote:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/u-2-spy-planes-snooped-on-chinese-surveillance-balloon/ar-AA17bdwL
Some interesting details in this article -
"VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command, said that the balloon itself was 200 feet tall, and the sensor payload underneath was the size of a regional jetliner. Kirby added that the balloon had propellers and a rudder to allow it to change direction speed up, slow and turn, but it relied mostly on the winds and was limited in mobility.
https://www.nbc15.com/2023/02/06/white-house-improved-surveillance-caught-chinese-balloon/
Also, there seems to have been some sightings in Taiwan over the past few years as well, not very surprising.
"Zheng Mingdian, director of the Central Meteorological Bureau, said that in September 2021 and March 2022, the same balloon appeared over Taipei, staying for about 3 hours"
https://tw.nextapple.com/life/20230204/3D75C6F497EE5FA5FACFEEAAEB20C5CE
"VanHerck, commander of U.S. Northern Command, said that the balloon itself was 200 feet tall, and the sensor payload underneath was the size of a regional jetliner. Kirby added that the balloon had propellers and a rudder to allow it to change direction speed up, slow and turn, but it relied mostly on the winds and was limited in mobility.
https://www.nbc15.com/2023/02/06/white-house-improved-surveillance-caught-chinese-balloon/
Also, there seems to have been some sightings in Taiwan over the past few years as well, not very surprising.
"Zheng Mingdian, director of the Central Meteorological Bureau, said that in September 2021 and March 2022, the same balloon appeared over Taipei, staying for about 3 hours"
https://tw.nextapple.com/life/20230204/3D75C6F497EE5FA5FACFEEAAEB20C5CE
deirdre
Senior Member.
they don't want us stealing their prototype tech?
they don't want us to find out they stole OUR prototype tech?
jackfrostvc
Senior Member
Don't the US spy on other countries with all sorts of means including spy planes, drones and balloons?
This could easily leed to a tit for tat scenario. I can see why they would be hesitant to shoot down a spy craft, they would know that could leed to reprisals on any of their spy assets
This could easily leed to a tit for tat scenario. I can see why they would be hesitant to shoot down a spy craft, they would know that could leed to reprisals on any of their spy assets
deirdre
Senior Member.
i imagine it's ok worldwide to shoot down spy planes. that's probably why they invented drones.
Hevach
Senior Member.
It's not an accident that things like the Geneva Convention are usually silent on spies despite being very comprehensive on soldiers at war, prisoners of war, civilians in a war zone, civilian government of warring nations, etc etc etc.
deirdre
Senior Member.
huh. i didn't know that.
NoParty
Senior Member.
As the story was playing out, I kept wondering if the U.S. had some tech that could
try to get entwined with the loose ends of the thing (Yes, like AT-ATs in Empire Strikes Back), ;P
capture it and bring the whole thing in...for a complete and thorough examination.
I'm guessing not, since they opted for the AIM-9X Sidewinder...and maybe they were
confident that they could retrieve virtually all of the tech pieces...?
try to get entwined with the loose ends of the thing (Yes, like AT-ATs in Empire Strikes Back), ;P
capture it and bring the whole thing in...for a complete and thorough examination.
I'm guessing not, since they opted for the AIM-9X Sidewinder...and maybe they were
confident that they could retrieve virtually all of the tech pieces...?
deirdre
Senior Member.
do we have pics of the balloon over Latin America? wonder why this one is "for test flight" but ours was allegedly for weather.
Article: "With regard to the balloon over Latin America, it has been verified that the unmanned airship is from China, of civilian nature and used for flight test," China Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters Monday. "Affected by the weather and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course and entered into the airspace of Latin America and the Caribbean."
Z.W. Wolf
Senior Member.
These things have been sighted over Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Canada, Hawaii, South America, the Andaman Islands (in the Indian Ocean). I'm betting that these reports represent just a fraction of the actual number of balloon overflights.
Paywall: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/06/chinese-balloons-failed-detection/
Why have these spy balloons been seen from the Indian Ocean to Costa Rica? Okay, maybe they keep losing these things in the wind.
Something I've toyed with... What is it China is interested in, all over the world? Their own citizens.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chi...secret-police-stations-monitor-exiles-2022-12
Are these things collecting info, somehow, on their own citizens living in foreign countries? Some kind of electronic surveillance? I don't know what's technically possible.
Paywall: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/02/06/chinese-balloons-failed-detection/
Perhaps, up until now, these balloons have been spotted visually simply by happenstance. If that's true, it follows that many others haven't been detected at all.
Why have these spy balloons been seen from the Indian Ocean to Costa Rica? Okay, maybe they keep losing these things in the wind.
Something I've toyed with... What is it China is interested in, all over the world? Their own citizens.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chi...secret-police-stations-monitor-exiles-2022-12
Are these things collecting info, somehow, on their own citizens living in foreign countries? Some kind of electronic surveillance? I don't know what's technically possible.
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JMartJr
Senior Member.
Found this -- I cringe at myself for using Daily Mail as a source, but they were the first I found that did not seem to be using a pic of the US balloon to illustrate their story, PLUS the possible route map at the bottom gives a good feel, to me at least, for how two balloons that started off in slightly different directions can wind up so far apart.
Source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...y-balloon-spotted-sky-time-Latin-America.html
No idea, it would seem either would do for both. Possibly not everybody got the memo?
Here is the source tweet for that daily mail article. It's from Maracaibo, Venezuela.
Source: https://twitter.com/el_charlie/status/1621631362343084033/photo/1
That graphic is interesting... if correct this would mean that one spotted over Costa Rica a couple days ago is almost certainly the same one over South America at this time. Also, the two paths of the balloons and the times of which they were released may suggest that they were released simultaneously and probably not for the purpose of 'weather research'
Duke
Senior Member.
Short of RAF Typhoons based in the Falklands, I doubt there is a fighter based in South America capable of taking down that balloon. Of course the US could offer to take it out as a member of the OAS.
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