Flight MH370 Speculation

[NewAmericanCenturySucks]

Two other possibilities:

- Pilot tries to crash plane into some perceived enemy (or symbol thereof), and is either shot down or diverted by remote control.

- Pilot takes passengers hostage, tries to negotiate (with, say, Malay gov't) - when that fails, he carries out his threat.

But with each passing day's misinformation deluge, the stock on some sort of US(-allied) abduction scenario just keeps rising.

 

[WeedWhacker]

and is either shot down or diverted by remote control.

There is NO...and I repeat NO "remote control" aspect to a B-777, or ANY modern airliner. PLEASE do NOT perpetuate such a myth!!

 

[Pete Tar]

But with each passing day's misinformation deluge, the stock on some sort of US(-allied) abduction scenario just keeps rising.

Why is that a conclusion we should consider viable? Why does the lack of clear information make this most likely?

 

[vooke]

I said it, it is hard not to entertain conspiracies around MH370

 

[jonnyH]

serious country? jailing opposition leader because of alleged homosexuality

He wasn't jailed, he's on bail pending appeal. Not to defend laws that discriminate against homosexuals, but the charge was not gayness, it was sodomy which if nonconsensual is rape.

 

[Pete Tar]

Those allegations have been kicking around for years, ever since he's became a popular opposition leader. This is not the first instance, it's hard to believe that he would continually put himself in compromising situations.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anwar_Ibrahim_sodomy_trials
More than likely just schoolyard political tactics.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

Two other possibilities:

- Pilot tries to crash plane into some perceived enemy (or symbol thereof), and is either shot down or diverted by remote control.

- Pilot takes passengers hostage, tries to negotiate (with, say, Malay gov't) - when that fails, he carries out his threat.

But with each passing day's misinformation deluge, the stock on some sort of US(-allied) abduction scenario just keeps rising.

- if it was shot down it couldn't continue flying for hours, also no possibility for remote control nor it would be easy to perform even if it existed

- they would scramble jets or alarm Indonesia, unless you state the negotiations started when he entered Indian Ocean in which case it would have to be carried out over VHF and pilots of other planes would hear it, in case of using satellite phone the call could be intercepted by provider so not really probable

He wasn't jailed, he's on bail pending appeal. Not to defend laws that discriminate against homosexuals, but the charge was not gayness, it was sodomy which if nonconsensual is rape.

judging by that link from wikipedia, the sodomy and gayness is the same for them, and I think it's quite clear that it was made up

 

[zebra100]

MH370 was deliberately set on autopilot for hours before crash: according to Aussie authorities http://time.com/2925981/mh-370-was-on-autopilot-when-it-crashed-say-australian-officials/

If this is true (I still have doubt), and if this was the pilot ( this is also still questionable), he had his purpose for doing it: according to the reports, he was a avid flyer; and according to first phase of military dadar record, he flew very aggressively for certain purpose ( high altitude to knock out the whole crew and passengers, low flying to avoid detection-certainly now Malaysia government tried to deny that saying the radar was out of calibration for heights and I don't believe would be that far out of calibration due to it was a most advanced military radar according to his supported that jailed opposition leader who imported that radar as deputy prime and commercial minister), he would be very likely to test the limit of the jumbo jet for some highly acrobatic flying which never tried on a commercial jet for last suicide stunt.

So if he put it on autopilot, it very likely he did it for a bail out purpose and the plane continued autopiloting to its doomed destination.

And by the way, this autopiloting destination was certainly in conflict against another report from Malaysia that he tried on his simulator to land somewhere in South India Ocean airport.
No, he auto piloted MH370 to nowhere but the bottom of the ocean.

 

[BombDr]

serious country? jailing opposition leader because of alleged homosexuality? That's not a serious country in my book, even Balkan countries don't do that. Also the level of corruption and nepotism is incredibly huge, which leads to all sorts of incompetence...

I didn't state that it was utopia, and any religious or anti gay laws are beyond the pale with me, but it is a functioning 21st Century country with infrastructure and governance.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

Well Saudi Arabia is too.

 

[BombDr]

So if he put it on autopilot, it very likely he did it for a bail out purpose and the plane continued autopiloting to its doomed destination.

I'm not seeing bail-out as an option really. There is no easy way to enter the slipstream from a 777, and it would involve smuggling a parachute jumpsuit and in the case of a high altitude jump, oxygen system onto the aircraft.

I guess he could get to sub-15k ft to avoid the breathing problem (Iv jumped from 16k without O2 - long story) but he would still have to find a clean exit point and as already discussed on this thread there are some issues with the doors opening forward.



On this video you see at 00:51 a bit of structure sticking out forward of the door: This is a slipstream deflector which allows the lads to exit 90degrees to the airflow and not get scraped along the side of the aircraft. A 777 does not have these and Im not even sure what the slowest speed a 777 can go prior to stalling... Maybe Whacker and Cobra know...?

 

[Jason]

Could the plane have landed on Christmass Island or Cocos Keelings Island? they are right on the Inmarsat rings but instead of being in the south indian ocean they are north west of AU.

Cocos Keeling Island


there is a runway on the south western end of the island in this photo

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

I think it has been tried to get there(makes more sense than reaching australian mainland), bad luck though.

 

[Jason]

I think it has been tried to get there(makes more sense than reaching australian mainland), bad luck though.

Both islands are controlled by Australia so it would've been the same thing as landing there if he was seeking asylum..

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

yupp that's why I say it makes more sense than trying to reach the mainland

looking at this map with waypoints I can see there is almost perfect path for autopilot (sincerely didn't know there are so many waypoints around there), so going south from IGREX then IGOGU ANOKO NOPEK MABIX seems like what the pilot would choose to enter in the planes FMC (the path evades radar circles) if he wanted to reach Christmas Island

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirwabjCIAACtVF.png:large

also we have more news here

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ilitary-radar-data-on-mh370-wrong-says-report

so we now know that news about altitude was false, maybe an intentional spin to push the hypoxia theory?

just look at all those comments written by malaysian people and you'll understand the situation there and why I don't believe their government completely

 

[Jason]

yupp that's why I say it makes more sense than trying to reach the mainland

looking at this map with waypoints I can see there is almost perfect path for autopilot (sincerely didn't know there are so many waypoints around there), so going south from IGREX then IGOGU ANOKO NOPEK MABIX seems like what the pilot would choose to enter in the planes FMC (the path evades radar circles) if he wanted to reach Christmas Island

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BirwabjCIAACtVF.png:large

also we have more news here

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...ilitary-radar-data-on-mh370-wrong-says-report

so we now know that news about altitude was false, maybe an intentional spin to push the hypoxia theory?

just look at all those comments written by malaysian people and you'll understand the situation there and why I don't believe their government completely

Do you think there could've been discussion between the pilot and Malaysia shortly after take off with demands or request from the government. Maybe that's why he flew back over Malaysia, and in doing so time and fuel were lost and maybe the Malaysian government is covering that portion of it up so they don't look like the plane was lost because they wouldn't give in or let the pilot waste fuel?

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

nah, in that case they would get sh*t scared because of KL twin towers and scramble jets immediately, they just didn't have any idea where the plane was until they looked into radar logs

 

[zebra100]

I'm not seeing bail-out as an option really. There is no easy way to enter the slipstream from a 777, and it would involve smuggling a parachute jumpsuit and in the case of a high altitude jump, oxygen system onto the aircraft.

I guess he could get to sub-15k ft to avoid the breathing problem (Iv jumped from 16k without O2 - long story) but he would still have to find a clean exit point and as already discussed on this thread there are some issues with the doors opening forward.



On this video you see at 00:51 a bit of structure sticking out forward of the door: This is a slipstream deflector which allows the lads to exit 90degrees to the airflow and not get scraped along the side of the aircraft. A 777 does not have these and Im not even sure what the slowest speed a 777 can go prior to stalling... Maybe Whacker and Cobra know...?

Actually not, as I mentioned before, MH370 had a low altitude flying over the Malaysia Peninsular at about 5,000 ft and no oxygen needed and pack a parachute into a normal carry-on as we usually see the pilots and air attendants use is not difficult and no problem to pass airport metal detector. And actually after the Peninsular, it was assumed autopiloted-seemingly with no manual control. And fully depressurized, the rear emergency exit has no danger being clipped by tail when he bail out

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

if he had previous parachuting experience somebody would recognize him and notice the authorities and if not...it's not easy to jump out for the first time in your life in such a tense situation, and even if he succeeded, whole world knows how he looks now and people would eventually recognize him even in disguise

 

[Jason]

nah, in that case they would get sh*t scared because of KL twin towers and scramble jets immediately, they just didn't have any idea where the plane was until they looked into radar logs

But why would the pilot turn back and fly over the same island, why not turn southeast and fly over the other Malaysian Islands. Here's a photo of Coco's Airport

https://www.google.com/maps/@-12.1858563,96.8293918,366m/data=!3m1!1e3

 

[zebra100]

if he had previous parachuting experience somebody would recognize him and notice the authorities and if not...it's not easy to jump out for the first time in your life in such a tense situation, and even if he succeeded, whole world knows how he looks now and people would eventually recognize him even in disguise

They even can't find the Most Wanted fugitive in most advanced USA ,how do we expect they find anyone in incompetent Malaysia? As for parachuting, I remember it is a common entertainment and no one give a damn. And as a pilot for decades, I think he might did it way way back and again.

 

[BombDr]

Actually not, as I mentioned before, MH370 had a low altitude flying over the Malaysia Peninsular at about 5,000 ft and no oxygen needed and pack a parachute into a normal carry-on as we usually see the pilots and air attendants use is not difficult and no problem to pass airport metal detector. And actually after the Peninsular, it was assumed autopiloted-seemingly with no manual control.

Even if you go for the low altitude option you have a couple of problems to surmount:

1. The parachute itself has plenty of metal in it: There are the buckles, the 'three-ring-circus' and the tubes for the kevlar cut-away device.


And the cypres device:



Which I suppose could be removed, but I wouldn't jump without one.

2. Getting a parachute through airport security is not that simple, and its obvious what it is from the scanner, and they made me put it in my hold luggage. Cabin crew are not exempt from security, and I think it's plausible that if a security operative had discovered a parachute anywhere in the luggage, for any reason, that would have come to light already. I also think that if any of the crew had parachuting training that might also be a factor in the investigators.

3. There is still no viable way of exiting a 777 in flight that is survivable without serious modification to the aircraft - though I acknowledge that my knowledge of the 777 is limited to being a passenger.

 

[zebra100]

Even if you go for the low altitude option you have a couple of problems to surmount:

1. The parachute itself has plenty of metal in it: There are the buckles, the 'three-ring-circus' and the tubes for the kevlar cut-away device.


And the cypres device:



Which I suppose could be removed, but I wouldn't jump without one.

2. Getting a parachute through airport security is not that simple, and its obvious what it is from the scanner, and they made me put it in my hold luggage. Cabin crew are not exempt from security, and I think it's plausible that if a security operative had discovered a parachute anywhere in the luggage, for any reason, that would have come to light already. I also think that if any of the crew had parachuting training that might also be a factor in the investigators.

3. There is still no viable way of exiting a 777 in flight that is survivable without serious modification to the aircraft - though I acknowledge that my knowledge of the 777 is limited to being a passenger.

That's the modern type. A lot of different old type parachute is hard to detect, and as a pilot of decades at his home hub airport, he can sneak in that easy.

 

[BombDr]

That's the modern type. A lot of different old type parachute is hard to detect, and as a pilot of decades at his home hub airport, he can sneak in that easy.

Ok, please show me a metal-free parachute.

Also, they boarded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport where I don't think anyone is exempt from security on an International flight, but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

You still have not addressed the problems of exiting the aircraft.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

But why would the pilot turn back and fly over the same island, why not turn southeast and fly over the other Malaysian Islands. Here's a photo of Coco's Airport

https://www.google.com/maps/@-12.1858563,96.8293918,366m/data=!3m1!1e3

what other malaysian islands? He would have to cross Indonesia at some point and the risk of being detected would be much higher.

look at the map

http://www.yourchildlearns.com/online-atlas/images/south-east-asia-map.gif

They even can't find the Most Wanted fugitive in most advanced USA ,how do we expect they find anyone in incompetent Malaysia? As for parachuting, I remember it is a common entertainment and no one give a damn. And as a pilot for decades, I think he might did it way way back and again.

judging by trails they have found, he most probably didn't succeed at parachuting and judging by his plan he was not an experienced parachuter, just a nutter

I'd give no more than 1% chances that he survived and got away with it

and if Captain Shah (or someone else on board) has tried that there would be bigger chance of falling into jaws of malayan tiger than succeeding with plan

That's the modern type. A lot of different old type parachute is hard to detect, and as a pilot of decades at his home hub airport, he can sneak in that easy.

sneaking the parachute is least of the problems, and then if he got caught with it he would have some explaining to do why he needs a parachute in China... very bad risk/reward ratio when you multiply all probabilities...

 

[Jason]

what other malaysian islands? He would have to cross Indonesia at some point and the risk of being detected would be much higher.
look at the map
http://www.yourchildlearns.com/online-atlas/images/south-east-asia-map.gif

But thats the thing, according to all of the radar images and ping data he did fly over indonesia, Aceh. The northern tip after crossing Malaysia. So I don't understand why he decided to cross Indonesia at this point instead of near East Java

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

nope, allegedly he flew to IGREX and then went south going around Aceh. According to indonesian military spokesman, there is a very modern radar in Aceh and they sure would know if the plane came close.

here is an interesting YT video

 

[zebra100]

Ok, please show me a metal-free parachute.

Also, they boarded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport where I don't think anyone is exempt from security on an International flight, but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

You still have not addressed the problems of exiting the aircraft.

Already done--please look at the previous posts-it's difficult but not impossible. As for the security check, what do we expect from an airport even can't distinguish 2 Iranian boy faces with British and Australian adults face? I don't think they can distinguish a bag pack from a parachute pack in the x-ray and even doubt they bother to look at it.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

But thats the thing, according to all of the radar images and ping data he did fly over indonesia, Aceh. The northern tip after crossing Malaysia. So I don't understand why he decided to cross Indonesia at this point instead of near East Java

also here is what most probably would happen if he tried to cross Indonesia

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/05/21/us-transport-aircraft-forced-down-aceh.html

for some reason their military seems to be more capable than malaysian, they don't joke around

 

[Jason]

nope, allegedly he flew to IGREX and then went south going around Aceh. According to indonesian military spokesman, there is a very modern radar in Aceh and they sure would know if the plane came close.

here is an interesting YT video

According to these he did pass over the northern tip of Indonesia. I think you provided the link of the independant analysis. http://mh370.bookofresearch.com/Documents/MH370 data analysis 16-06-2014 issue 1.pdf


https://www.google.com/maps/@4.0408635,96.648933,764055m/data=!3m1!1e3
Even if he flew just shy of Indonesia, like along the border how would he be capable of doing that if he disabled his ACARS and other electronics that communicate with satellites? Also if he flew along the border, Indonesian Radar is pretty sophisticated and surely would've picked up an unknown plane flying near its borders

 

[Jason]

also here is what most probably would happen if he tried to cross Indonesia

http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2013/05/21/us-transport-aircraft-forced-down-aceh.html

for some reason their military seems to be more capable than malaysian, they don't joke around

But look at the radar track, its pretty close, and some tracks actually put it in Indonesia

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

what track? the pictures you posted don't resemble real flight path as I tend to believe indonesian military for aforementioned reasons

this one is much more real

http://socioecohistory.files.wordpr...40314-tmi-kamarul_540_403_100.jpg?w=540&h=403

although I don't agree with direct south path because after going around Indonesia I think it went parallel with indonesian coast (some 200-300 miles away from it) to Christmas or Cocos Island, and some mishap prevented them from landing

 

[Jason]

what track? the pictures you posted don't resemble real flight path as I tend to believe indonesian military for aforementioned reasons

this one is much more real

http://socioecohistory.files.wordpr...40314-tmi-kamarul_540_403_100.jpg?w=540&h=403

although I don't agree with direct south path because after going around Indonesia I think it went parallel with indonesian coast (some 200-300 miles away from it) to Christmas or Cocos Island, and some mishap prevented them from landing

That is the latest track, if you have a few minutes, open the link I provided with the maps. It is an independant analysis of the Inmarsat data, using radar recordings. That link explains how they arrived at those coordinates... Here it is again if you care to look it over. It's an independant study done in the UK
http://mh370.bookofresearch.com/Documents/MH370 data analysis 16-06-2014 issue 1.pdf

 

[Jason]

Honestly though, if a plane were to fly over Indonesia prior to this incident and didn't have its ACARS on what would've happened. If the ground tried communicating with the pilot and he told them he was a commercial liner in route to AU, would they have second guessed him. Considering they didn't know the plane was missing until it didn't arrive in China, they could've had communications from within the cockpit, or is that not possible...

 

[BombDr]

Already done--please look at the previous posts-it's difficult but not impossible. As for the security check, what do we expect from an airport even can't distinguish 2 Iranian boy faces with British and Australian adults face? I don't think they can distinguish a bag pack from a parachute pack in the x-ray and even doubt they bother to look at it.

Thats a few assumptions there: Im not sure if you are asserting that the passports were presented with the original photos in place, or that they were altered in some way...? I'm not certain about KL, but transport security and immigration are usually two separate entities.

I'm trying to find this metal-free parachute you mentioned, could you repost please?

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

That is the latest track, if you have a few minutes, open the link I provided with the maps. It is an independant analysis of the Inmarsat data, using radar recordings. That link explains how they arrived at those coordinates... Here it is again if you care to look it over. It's an independant study done in the UK
http://mh370.bookofresearch.com/Documents/MH370 data analysis 16-06-2014 issue 1.pdf

I see but those are just example tracks, you could very easy design the track so the pings correspond with plane going around Indonesia.

Honestly though, if a plane were to fly over Indonesia prior to this incident and didn't have its ACARS on what would've happened. If the ground tried communicating with the pilot and he told them he was a commercial liner in route to AU, would they have second guessed him. Considering they didn't know the plane was missing until it didn't arrive in China, they could've had communications from within the cockpit, or is that not possible...

commercial airliners from Malaysia to Australia don't go over northern point of Indonesia, they would question the pilot why his transponder doesn't work and notice malaysian authorities, also there is a confirmed NW heading in Malacca Strait, if they wanted to go across Indonesia they wouldn't go NW

again, the probability that it went across Indonesia is just theoretical and it doesn't make sense anyway since relatively speaking the trip is not much longer if you go around it(from the last primary radar confirmed point)

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

http://christmas.mondoblog.org/files/2014/04/Ken_St_Aubin_MH370_Christmas_Island_Theory.pdf

ignore the far-fetched story about al-qaeda but look at the picture on page 6, flight path perfectly corresponds with pings and screams logic if there is a working radar on Cocos Island (and I guess there is since there is an airport), also the airport on Christmas Island seems not te be active during weekends (no flights), quite telling I'd say

 

[Jason]

http://christmas.mondoblog.org/files/2014/04/Ken_St_Aubin_MH370_Christmas_Island_Theory.pdf

ignore the far-fetched story about al-qaeda but look at the picture on page 6, flight path perfectly corresponds with pings and screams logic if there is a working radar on Cocos Island (and I guess there is since there is an airport), also the airport on Christmas Island seems not te be active during weekends (no flights), quite telling I'd say

Yeah but cocos island is much smaller and not a holiday destination spot and it only has about 600 people living on it, and the run way is much longer. If the airport at christmass island is closed on weekends, then I think it's safe to assume it would be closed at cocos as well. But the map/graph on page 6 is interesting to say the least. It's plausible, and for that reason alone it should be investigated.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

here we go...

http://malaysia-chronicle.com/index...a-investigators-allege&Itemid=2#axzz35vhnra4M

 

[ConspiracyAtheist]

@TWCobra - You mentioned the anomaly in the ATC recordings, specifically the double transmission of FL350 8 minutes apart. Could this be consistent an early sign of hypoxia?