Flight MH370 Speculation

[AluminumTheory]

Explosion already seems unlikely given the lack of a significant debris footprint. But how likely is it that a commercial jet could have exploded in that region without being seen given all of the nearby islands and probably land/sea traffic?

 

[Pete Tar]

this is what I mean when I say that Hollywood destroys science, and adds to memes that perpetuate BAD and incorrect "beliefs".

I just watched Gravity and was slightly annoyed at the some of the key scenes and even the initial disaster premise, it's clear that artistic vision is often about altering reality to fit a narrative. A shame because they could still have found a way to do it correctly and still be emotionally impactful.
(sorry that's probably going to drag things off-topic)

 

[Joe]

The transponder needs to be shut off on the ground otherwise it clutters both ground and airborne radar displays.

Well cant they have more of a automatic way of it shutting down ? Like after it lands . or make it so it cant be shut off in flight ?

 

[WeedWhacker]

I just watched Gravity and was slightly annoyed at the some of the key scenes

ME too!!

But again...another topic, perhaps? (I'd love to discuss).

 

[WeedWhacker]

Member "Joe" said:

"Well cant they have more of a automatic way of it shutting down ? Like after it lands . or make it so it cant be shut off in flight ?"

If you are referring to the Transponder? Yes, there could be ways to make it more "automatic", but that isn't how it works, in real life.

Here is an image of a typical panel that controls the (usually two) transponders on modern airliners:



NOTE that the knob in the lower right corner has, as its last position 'STBY'. Same as "OFF", for all intents and purposes. The rest seems self-explanatory. As long as you undertand what 'TCAS' is, and the 'TA ONLY' and 'TA/RA' positions, and what they mean.

 

[AluminumTheory]

Hence an earlier point I made about Hollywood screenwriters, and their ability to sow very bad and incorrect memes into peoples' psyches.

I am reminded, suddenly, of a very egregious example...from one of the 'Die Hard' sequels. AND, I cannot recall which one, but in the climax, our "hero" (Bruce Willis) destroys the "bad guys" in their departing airplane by lighting the leaking jet fuel, as if it were a "fuse"....this is what I mean when I say that Hollywood destroys science, and adds to memes that perpetuate BAD and incorrect "beliefs".

EDIT....perhaps it was from the "sequel", 'Die Hard 2'. There is THIS utterly ridiculous sequence:



Again....I apologize if this is veering off-topic, but since the idea of these "false" passports being part of the mystery of MH370 is less and less likely....perhaps I will be "split off" at this point?

Could be a category of "Debunked Conspiracy Theories Surrounding Malaysian 370"

Still too early. We're all essentially speculating at this point. Given the amount of redundancy that is implemented in modern commercial jets, one would have to assume that it's either an amazing string of coincidences and/or a conspiracy of some nature.

 

[WeedWhacker]

Given the amount of redundancy that is implemented in modern commercial jets, one would have to assume that it's either an amazing string of coincidences and/or a conspiracy of some nature.

Totally agreed.

I've been a built quilty, here, of unwarranted speculation...just "blowing off steam", perhaps.

 

[Joe]

Member "Joe" said:

"Well cant they have more of a automatic way of it shutting down ? Like after it lands . or make it so it cant be shut off in flight ?"

If you are referring to the Transponder? Yes, there could be ways to make it more "automatic", but that isn't how it works, in real life.

Here is an image of a typical panel that controls the (usually two) transponders on modern airliners:



NOTE that the knob in the lower right corner has, as its last position 'STBY'. Same as "OFF", for all intents and purposes. The rest seems self-explanatory. As long as you undertand what 'TCAS' is, and the 'TA ONLY' and 'TA/RA' positions, and what they mean.

Thanks . Maybe its me or it just seems strange I can have OnStar in my GM vehicle to locate it Via satellite . Just seems like outdated technology ? That looks like a old CB radio from the seventies . It uses Radar I suppose ?

 

[MikeC]

Member "Joe" said:

NOTE that the knob in the lower right corner has, as its last position 'STBY'. Same as "OFF", for all intents and purposes.

Or you could pull the circuit breaker and it would be off - and not just for intents and purposes!!

 

[Joe]

PS: it took 5 days to locate the debris from the Air France plane that disappeared of the coast of Brazil and two years to find the wreckage

 

[WeedWhacker]

Thanks . Maybe its me or it just seems strange I can have OnStar in my GM vehicle to locate it Via satellite . Just seems like outdated technology ? That looks like a old CB radio from the seventies . It uses Radar I suppose ?

LOL!! "Joe", that is a very funny comment. Perhaps the image that I found, off of the Internet, wasn't clear enough to properly explain.

HERE is one NOT from a B-777, but better clarity:



Based on the color (Boeing "gray") and the control head, I see this as from an older B-737.

AGAIN, though....you note the knob....THIS TIME IN THE LOWER LEFT of the control head....and "STBY" is the default for "OFF". The "TEST" position, in this case, is a spring-loaded momentary position...and sets off the usual TEST functions, which include (here) a full TCAS test protocol).

But again....this has very little to do with 9/11, nor with MH370....except as much as applies to MH370, it is a fairly simple manner to stop transmitting, via any Transponder signal, merely by moving the control to "STBY". SAME as during the 9/11 attacks, for what it's worth.

EDIT: And for anyone wondering, although this is usually obvious, in the display in the above image, it appears as "All 8s" because it is the "TEST" mode...not the transponder "TEST" mode, but an "ALL LIGHTS" test mode...part of something that all airline pilots understand, but find it not worth the effort to always explain, in so many words, what (to us) is already intuitive.

 

[WeedWhacker]

PS: it took 5 days to locate the debris from the Air France plane that disappeared of the coast of Brazil and two years to find the wreckage

Yes....it DID take a long time....in a MUCH larger region of uncertainty, usually referred to as the "Atlantic Ocean".

 

[WeedWhacker]

PS: it took 5 days to locate the debris from the Air France plane that disappeared of the coast of Brazil and two years to find the wreckage

"Joe"....could you help me to understand, please? I'm a little confused. We started talking about "transponders", and I won't be too bold to say I think I know more about them them than some reading this thread, just because I have experience using them....but.....

HOW, again, does this relate to the thread topic? Just asking.

 

[Joe]

"Joe"....could you help me to understand, please? I'm a little confused. We started talking about "transponders", and I won't be too bold to say I think I know more about them them than some reading this thread....but.....

HOW, again, does this relate to the thread topic? Just asking.

Yea my bad it was just in reference to how can a plane get lost and how it can just get shut off in flight after what happened on 9/11 youd figure they make it harder for it to be shut down when needed the most ? So It was on topic at least more than Gravity Dont worry Ill read up on it myself then.

 

[WeedWhacker]

Yea my bad it was just in reference to how can a plane get lost and how it can just get shut off in flight after what happened on 9/11 youd figure they make it harder for it to be shut down when needed the most ? So It was on topic at least more than Gravity Dont worry Ill read up on it myself then.

No worries, "Joe"!!

On 9/11, for instance, merely selecting "STBY" was sufficient to stop all Transponder transmissions. Same (I assume) with MH370.

But, some reports (RE: MH 370) indicate that once out of range of ATC radar, it descended. These are preliminary reports, as of this writing, but it is just ONE aspect to consider, in this mystery. AND, it is a mystery, right now (12 March, 2014 @ 0358 UTC).

 

[deirdre]

"Joe"....could you help me to understand, please? I'm a little confused. We started talking about "transponders", and I won't be too bold to say I think I know more about them them than some reading this thread, just because I have experience using them....but.....

HOW, again, does this relate to the thread topic? Just asking.

I think we're going with the first part of the thread topic. personally I think its better to keep all the speculation to one thread for now. its not like there are any official conspiracy theories. yet.

I just watched Gravity and was slightly annoyed at the some of the key scenes and even the initial disaster premise, it's clear that artistic vision is often about altering reality to fit a narrative. A shame because they could still have found a way to do it correctly and still be emotionally impactful.
(sorry that's probably going to drag things off-topic)

I am watching the movie Gravity up here on ISS. Let's call it training

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https://www.facebook.com/AstroRM/posts/480236248765142?stream_ref=10

Rick Mastracchio
I watched the movie 'Gravity' up here in this 0 gravity environment last night. It reminded me of what I said to Mike Hopkins while we were preparing for our emergency spacewalks to repair the station. I said "I am the mature, experienced guy like George Clooney's character but unfortunately Mike, you are no Sandra Bullock." He said "And your no George Clooney".

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[Joe]

No worries, "Joe"!!

On 9/11, for instance, merely selecting "STBY" was sufficient to stop all Transponder transmissions. Same (I assume) with MH370.

But, some reports (RE: MH 370) indicate that once out of range of ATC radar, it descended. These are preliminary reports, as of this writing, but it is just ONE aspect to consider, in this mystery. AND, it is a mystery, right now (12 March, 2014 @ 0358 UTC).

So If a Rouge pilot wants to kidnap a plane full of passengers and steal a aircraft all he has to do is shut off his transponder and fly away to whatever country he wants . Not saying this is the case here . But it could happen ,

 

[WeedWhacker]

I think we're going with the first part of the thread topic. personally I think its better to keep all the speculation to one thread for now. its not like there are any official conspiracy theories. yet.

I am watching the movie Gravity up here on ISS. Let's call it training

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https://www.facebook.com/AstroRM/posts/480236248765142?stream_ref=10

Rick Mastracchio
I watched the movie 'Gravity' up here in this 0 gravity environment last night. It reminded me of what I said to Mike Hopkins while we were preparing for our emergency spacewalks to repair the station. I said "I am the mature, experienced guy like George Clooney's character but unfortunately Mike, you are no Sandra Bullock." He said "And your no George Clooney".

Content from External Source

I understand all of that. I will only refer to further "up-thread", were I reference how Hollywood, even with the "best" of intentions, can spoil real science by introducing false "memes". Again..."where has this thread gone??"

 

[deirdre]

one plus to this thread..it kinda documents the 'media' 'news' output as it progresses. it's a good thing.

 

[WeedWhacker]

So If a Rouge pilot wants to kidnap a plane full of passengers and steal a aircraft all he has to do is shut off his transponder and fly away to whatever country he wants . Not saying this is the case here . But it could happen

"Joe"....we saw this already!!! Just a few months ago....

And, it wasn't a "hidden" event.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/17/world/europe/ethiopian-airlines-hijacking/

So, let's expand our thinking, please. Yes...it "might" be a hijacking/hostage situation, but that is only ONE possibility. Too soon for such speculation...again, time hack is 12 March 2104 @ 0410 UTC as I post.

 

[Pete Tar]

"Joe"....we saw this already!!! Just a few months ago....
And, it wasn't a "hidden" event.

But did he turn the transponder off?

When planes go off tracking, when do they start to worry?
There's been talk that the airline waited 6 hours after they were missing to notify them as such, but a flight going invisible to tracking isn't the same as 'missing' is it? Is it common to drop off the tracker and then re-establish contact a few hours later?
Being 1/2 hour past the expected landing time is really when they would consider the plane missing as they would have expected some form of contact by then?

 

[WeedWhacker]

But did he turn the transponder off?
When planes go off tracking, when do they start to worry?

When airliners are in a non-radar environment (as ATC defines it) we use a more basic method...one that was tried and true BEFORE radar was even invented. It is called "Position Reporting".

So, depending on the Airway...the time between Position Reports can vary, but they should never exceed 60 minutes. For airliners, at the speeds we travel, this is easy...again, these are protocols. (IF you are talking about small airplanes being ferried across the Ocean, then they also comply with the "60 minute rule", although they may be allowed 90 minutes, with authorization and agreement by ATC.)

POINT is, in a non-radar ATC environment, Position Reporting is crucial for the Controllers to have a reference as to approximate location of all air traffic. This is much different, of course, from a radar-environment...where it is possible to more closely monitor positions, and allow for smaller tolerances of separation.

As to the time delay, for the Airline to respond? This gets into some speculation, and will involve questions of those involved, no doubt.

 

[Pete Tar]

Well if they were slow to act and to admit there was a problem, that is probably going to be used against them. If an alert was out earlier then some eyes may have been paying attention at the right time.
Would there have been a 'behind the scenes' alert perhaps?

 

[WeedWhacker]

Would there have been a 'behind the scenes' alert perhaps?

This is something I have been contemplating. Military radar installations are unlikely to reveal publicly the extent of their monitoring capabilities.

EDIT, and this possibly goes beyond just Vietnamese, or Malaysian, or other "local" military monitoring capabilities.

Only speculating, here....

 

[TWCobra]

Airlines wouldn't respond until after the aircraft has exceeded its fuel endurance by some time. Up till then there is still hope it diverted somewhere. ATC is responsible for the various SAR phases.

 

[TWCobra]

ATC distress phases explained.

 

[WeedWhacker]

ATC distress phases explained.

Yes.

Is there a hint of any HF or VHF or ACARS or SATCOMM distress transmissions of any kind?

 

[TWCobra]

The A/C sent off two known ACARS bursts. Both standard reports after takeoff and at top of climb. As far as I know they were talking to KL ATC till IGARI.

 

[Joe]

"Joe"....we saw this already!!! Just a few months ago....

And, it wasn't a "hidden" event.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/02/17/world/europe/ethiopian-airlines-hijacking/

So, let's expand our thinking, please. Yes...it "might" be a hijacking/hostage situation, but that is only ONE possibility. Too soon for such speculation...again, time hack is 12 March 2104 @ 0410 UTC as I post.

Too soon I agree even though it seemed they thought the same as the title of the thread says . The first day they were looking at terrorism . My concern would be mechanical failure and what problems other 777s may have . If it takes months or we never find the aircraft that could be a problem .

 

[Mick West]

I've created a sub-forum of the General Discussion forum for MH370 related stuff
https://www.metabunk.org/forums/flight-mh370.45/
and split the email claim into:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/fl...ims-to-spot-plane-crashing-near-vietnam.3267/

 

[Mick West]

China debris reports:
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/flight-mh370-china-reports-possible-debris-observed.3272/

 

[jaydeehess]

Speculation it is then!

Here's my take on the scenario:

Flight is normal until some event causes a massive loss of electrical supply to various systems including cabin pressure maintenance , radios and transponders.
Pilots take the plane down and in a left descending turn and in the hope of returning to the airfield
Damage to systems continues however and they have trouble leveling out only managing to do so at a few thousand feet asl.
Damage now includes loss of directional control surfaces leaving them with only differential power to steer. The turn was not completed and they are heading west.
Its night, no gauges other than compass. Finding a path back to the airport is almost impossible let alone trying to so do by managing engine power ( JAL Boeing 747 tried in vain to do this and was in the air in daylight, for almost an hour iirc)
They are almost dark to radar, fighting just to stay aloft, lost, and at best ACARS is still powered and rresponding but unusable by the crew.

Sound at all plausible?

 

[WeedWhacker]

Sound at all plausible?

There is a LOT of redundancy built into modern commercial airliners. Your scenario is quite improbable, I'm afraid.

...and at best ACARS is still powered...

No, again even in your highly improbable speculative scenario, the ACARS is certainly not considered to be 'vital' equipment and will not be powered in what is an emergency electrical situation. Boeing uses the term "Standby Power" to refer to items powered only from the batteries, and the Battery Buses.

This site can be useful, although it's specific to the B737, Boeing design architecture is fairly common throughout their product line. This is the B737 Electrical System review (not a full training curriculum, but designed as a "refresher" source for those already trained):

http://www.b737.org.uk/electrics.htm

There is a vast amount of info there to pick through. Ask questions, if you have any!!


EDIT: Just casually searching, I can find some other resources online (none as good as the actual sort of airline training materials used). This is a schematic for the B777 Electrical System:
http://www.aaib.gov.uk/cms_resources.cfm?file=/2-2009 N786UA Appendices.pdf

(Oh, I see that what I linked above appears to be Appendices from an accident/incident report involving a UK-based B777. I did not note which incident, though. The first page, of 15 in the PDF, has the schematic. The rest is discussion of the event being analyzed).

So, relevance may not be apt, but some info can be gleaned (hopefully).

One more web source is called "SmartCockpit", and their PDF files won't open in Adobe, they must be downloaded first. Example:
https://www.google.com/search?q=b77...7&sourceid=chrome&espv=210&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8

 

[jaydeehess]

I'm not postulating a loss of generation of electrical power. Its a loss of power to the cockpit, a wiring interruption.

I know its highly unlikely. I was trying to fit the report that ACARS was still responding four hours after last contact, that the plane descended and turned westward, and secondary radar and radio contact was lost.
I'm trying to do so w/o invoking the boogeymen that has the media all atwitter.

Probably I'm no better than the consprinuts but the thread title said ' speculation' so I went for it

 

[WeedWhacker]

I'm not postulating a loss of generation of electrical power. Its a loss of power to the cockpit, a wiring interruption.

I know its highly unlikely. I was trying to fit the report that ACARS was still responding four hours after last contact, that the plane descended and turned westward, and secondary radar and radio contact was lost.
I'm trying to do so w/o invoking the boogeymen that has the media all atwitter.

Probably I'm no better than the consprinuts but the thread title said ' speculation' so I went for it

Oh, I understand being speculative. The issue (it seems to me) is we are getting too many unconfirmed "reports" that aren't making logical sense, as yet. This is partly why understanding the systems helps to weed out (see what I did here? lol!)....to weed out the bogosity.

 

[Josh Heuer]

CNN just reported the plane crashed. I'm traveling ATM but I'll get back with the article. I'm sure someone will have info before I get back though

Edit: scratch that; they said 'likely'

 

[Mick West]

CNN just reported the plane crashed. I'm traveling ATM but I'll get back with the article. I'm sure someone will have info before I get back though

They are saying there is evidence it crashed:
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/14/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-plane/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Washington (CNN) -- A classified intelligence analysis of electronic and satellite data suggests Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed either in the Bay of Bengal or elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, CNN learned Friday.

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It's basically just more speculation, the best guess of the intelligence community, which is this (actual map they showed on the air):

 

[Pete Tar]

Following the reports supposedly tracking the plane following navigational waypoints, is it at all possible that communication and navigation systems failed but the plane was still mechanically okay so the pilot had to navigate blind and slightly disorientated? If that were the case would they have taken the path described, or would it have been more direct?

 

[TWCobra]

is it at all possible that communication and navigation systems failed but the plane was still mechanically okay

Again unlikely. A 777 has:

• three independent VHF systems with 4 access points in the cockpit.
• 2 HF radios located in the rear of the aircraft with the same access points in the cockpit.
• Two independent Flight Management Computers which combine all the navigation inputs.
• A standby Nav system in case the FMCs fail which can be operated from three independent data units.
• Three inertial reference systems which can display basic positional and groundspeed data
• Three independent Autopilots
• Standby Flight instruments that operate from their own pitot tubes and electrical source
• Two transponders. Which in addition to replying to SSR radar interrogation can also be used to send emergency code signals.
• ADSB which is a broadcast position signal picked up by ground based stations
• CDPLC which is the SATCOM system which tracks the aircraft once the crew has logged on.
• ELB's in the cabin which could be used to broadcast a signal whilst in the air if absolutely necessary.

Hard to think of something that would knock all that out with damaging the aircraft fatally as well.

 

[jaydeehess]

Wow, thx TWC. So the speculation of someone causing the off flight plan excursions might be the most probable. As opposed to a systems failure.