Note This discussion is split from the main Oroville discussion thread, and should be focussed only on weather forecasts, hydrologic forecasts, and lake level forecasts Some things to note: The weather forecast, especially just loca rain forecast, don't tell you the picture. You need the hydrologic forecast - i.e. how much water is gong to reach the lake The watershed (catchment area that drains into the lake) is about 3,600 square miles. It's the average rainfall over the whole watershed that's important. 2" in one small spot is not as important as 1" over the whole area. The snow level is very important, as the more that falls a snow, the less goes directly into the lake. But later higher snow level can melt the low lying snow It takes some time for rainfall to get into the lake. Resources: DWR-CDEC Oroville Dam real time sensors: http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO NOAA 6-Day precipitation accumulation http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/precipForecast.php?cwa=STO&imgNum=1 Bucks Creek Powerhouse (BUP) sensor which gives daily rainfall totals. http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryDaily?s=BUP For a nice wide view of the incoming water vapor, try the GFS / Pacific Sector / Precipitable Water loop at http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Nam, Nam4k, and others, will have higher resolution maps of P.W., 6 hour, and total precip. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ is also good. Their map even has Lake Oroville on it. First rains have arrived in the area: Should not be a problem in terms of rising lake levels for at least a day - and probably not at all if 100K CFS is maintained. Just might cause some operational difficulties - and less opportunities for good photos.