I do understand that these 6 day QPF forecasts are what they are,
forecasts.
Different weather models are going to forecast varying amounts of precipitation, but they do tend to "settle out" and provide a fairly accurate general indicator of weather events to come. The closer to the actual date of the weather event the more the models generally begin to converge and agree.
Up/down with the QPF the models will go from run to run.
I'm pretty sure the NWS is
on their toes in this particular area of the country right now.
Generally all the weather models I've looked at today are pretty consistent and in agreement.
There is going to be a good whack of precip in an area that is already very saturated.
Can the Oroville Res. handle it? I'm fairly confident it can and apparently the folks at the DWR believe so too as they are continuing to lower the outflow cfs even as the inflow cfs are increasing.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/queryF?s=ORO
I have to assume (I know bad idea) that they are confident that the 47' of "headroom" that they currently have is sufficient to handle the
immediate inflow from the upcoming weather event.
Map Source:
LINK
