Assessments of Iran's Nuclear Program
The U.S. intelligence community stated in its "worldwide threat assessment" testimony on March
12, 2013, that Iran has the capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, but that it has not
made a decision to do so. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper testified on April 18,
2013 said that a decision to do so would be made singularly by the Supreme Leader. With that
uncertainty about Iran's ultimate nuclear intentions, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
reports indicate that Iran has not satisfactorily addressed IAEA information that it still might have
a nuclear weapons program.14 An IAEA report of November 8, 2011, contained an annex laying
out the IAEA's information on Iran's apparent research efforts on weaponizing HEU, as well as
on some possible facilities used for that effort. However, Iran is not known to have produced any
HEU. Based on the November 2011 report, on November 18, 2011 the IAEA Board of Governors
adopted a resolution expressing "deep and increasing concern" about Iran's nuclear program. The
vote was 32 in favor, 2 against (Cuba, Ecuador), and 1 abstention (Indonesia).
After repeatedly refusing to discuss the IAEA information, in January 2012 Iran began
discussions with the IAEA on a workplan to clear up the allegations, including allowing IAEA
inspections of the Parchin military base where the IAEA suspects research on nuclear explosive
technology may have taken place. (The site was inspected twice in 2005.) IAEA Director Yukiya
Amano, following an unexpected visit to Iran on May 21, 2012, announced an "agreement in
principle" on the proposed workplan. However, amid IAEA accusations that Iran may have
cleaned up parts of the Parchin facility, no pact was finalized.
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Iran's Counter-Arguments
Iranian leaders deny they are trying to achieve a nuclear weapons capability and assert that Iran's
nuclear program is for medical uses and electricity generation, given finite oil and gas resources.
Iran argues that uranium enrichment is its "right" as a party to the 1968 Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty.15 Iran claims that IAEA information demonstrates little beyond the fact that
some of its scientists may have performed nuclear weapons calculations on computers. U.S.
officials have said that Iran's gas resources make nuclear energy unnecessary.
Iran professes that WMD is inconsistent with its ideology. In 2003, the Supreme Leader
Khamene'i issued a formal pronouncement (fatwas) that nuclear weapons are un-Islamic. On
February 22, 2012, he expanded on that concept in a speech saying that the production of and use
of a nuclear weapon is prohibited as a "great sin," and that stockpiling such weapons is "futile,
expensive, and harmful."16 On February 17, 2013, he reportedly told visitors that Iran is not
seeking to develop a nuclear weapon but that the international community would not be able to
prevent Iran from doing so if that were Iran's goal.17
[...]
Nuclear Weapons Time Frame Estimates
If Iran were to decide to pursue a nuclear weapon, estimates differ as to how long it would take
Iran to achieve that goal. On March 14, 2013, President Obama stated the view of the intelligence
community that "it would take Iran over a year or so" to develop a nuclear weapon after a
decision to do so. Then Secretary of Defense Panetta said in January 2012, that Iran would need
an additional one to two years to develop a delivery vehicle for that weapon. The Institute for
Science and International Security, in a study released in January 2013, said that Iran could
acquire the "critical capability" for a nuclear weapon (defined as ability to make enough HEU for
one bomb before foreign detection) in mid-2014.18 These estimates take into account technical
difficulties and reported disruptive action such as the computer virus (Stuxnet).
A related issue is the ability of the United States and IAEA to detect an all-out effort by Iran to
develop an actual nuclear weapon. Director of National Intelligence Clapper, in his March 12
testimony mentioned earlier, said that Iran could not divert safeguarded material and produce a
weapon-worth of weapons grade uranium before this activity is discovered. The crucial role of
the IAEA in monitoring Iran's activities explains why many experts consider it crucial that Iran
continue to cooperate with the IAEA.