Travis Walton case: Crew boss confesses hoax

[Charlie Wiser]

Source: https://youtu.be/QlTirK9mgiY


Mike Rogers was the crew boss driving the truck that night. In this brief informal interview he says Travis discussed with him creating a UFO hoax, and that "it was all deliberate, it was all a staged thing."

Along with the Betty & Barney Hill case, this is often touted as one of the "best" in UFO abduction circles because of multiple witnesses who haven't recanted in 46 years. Given Mike's role in controlling the truck (i.e. how long the crew were able to actually view the UFO - about 30 secs) and the way he hyped them up ("Did you see that!?!?!") it seemed clear to me that Mike and Travis hoaxed the rest of the crew (with the help of Travis's brother). Mike is now confirming this.

This case is about to be blown apart and is a great example of how a prank for cash (the National Inquirer prize money in this case) snowballed out of control over the decades and came to define the lives of all 7 crew members, 5 of whom were deceived, and those still living have just been told they were suckers.

How do you think the hoax was perpetrated?

 

[jackfrostvc]

Mike had been posting on Facebook in March/April that Travis Walton was a UFO hoaxer, see below.

I managed to interview Mike Rogers in March, he talked about how Travis had owed him money and he was upset about that, and because Travis was lining up a new movie and hadn't told Mike.

Later on Facebook I noticed Mike had come to an agreement with Travis and they were friends again
In case you don't know, Mike was not just Travis's best friend back in the day, but his sister is married to Travis

Here is my interview with Mike Rogers:
Source: https://soundcloud.com/jack-frost-969109415/interview-with-mike-rogers-24-03-2021/s-ZaJKzaGEE75


Writeup on Travis/Mike here including a balloon UFO you could buy back then that looked very much like Travis's UFO
https://threedollarkit.weebly.com/travis-walton.html

This story by Jeff Wells who was one of the first to interview the crew when Travis re-appeared is well worth the read.
https://debunker.com/texts/walton.h...gtBs3VpyIohcNEUNgge4rd8yYxP_U1pgl6ipXH3E-en38


Years ago Travis had failed a lie detector test on game show called "The Moment of Truth" . I wont post it n case of copyright. But if you have streaming rights to the show, it's well worth a watch. Travis was asked he was abducted to which Travis answers yes. Then they show the polygraph result of that same question they had asked him earlier - and.... it said he failed it

 

[Nilbog]

If what he's saying is true...that was a really daring hoax to pull off with so many witnesses. Seems like a lot could go wrong.

 

[Robert Sheaffer]

A lot has been happening on this case, and quickly: https://badufos.blogspot.com/2021/07/the-travis-walton-ufo-abduction-story.html

A new website, ThreeDollarKit.com, walks you through the operation of the hoax.

Mike Rogers was on Erica Lukes' "UFO Classified" Friday evening for two hours. He affirmed 100% that there was no hoax, then a bit later says he is starting to have doubts! He said Travis and I did not hoax this, but I didn't actually see Travis abducted.

Then after Mike's interview was finished, producer Ryan Gordon was interviewed for another two hours. He provided maps and charts and photos of the sites, with drone footage, illustrating his explanation of the hoax.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

UPDATE March 2026: Mike Rogers (crew boss) died in February. His daughter Michelle directed me to a Quora post in which she explained he called her to his deathbed and confessed to being part of the Travis Walton hoax. She has since deleted the post but tells me she'll give more details in time.

I'm collecting here some related sources. The relevant part of her Quora post:

On Friday, February 6th my father died... His name was Michael Howard Rogers. He was best known for his role as the crew captain in the movie Fire In The Sky. And, of course, for his role in that UFO story...

On January 12th he was released to Hospice home care, as he wished to die at home surrounded by his family rather than in a medical facility.
He called and asked me to hurry over saying that he wished to speak to me about a matter of great importance. He said that I needed to get to him before they began the morphine and other drugs...

From where I live, it is a three hour drive up to the White Mountains of Arizona - where I came from and where my father lived all of his life.
This is a very long story, but I will condense it down here for you, my Quora friends, intending to tell the entire story some time later and on other platforms and possibly by some other means in the near future.

My father wished to confess to several hoaxes that he carried out beginning in November of 1975. Yes, that UFO incident, one of the best known UFO stories in the world, was a hoax...

In any case, the point of this post is to confess on behalf of my father for all of his hoaxes that he carried out all over the world from November 1975 til at least March of 1997...

He wanted me to confess and apologize to the world for his hoaxes, and then for all of his lies right up until the very end of his life. He hoped that telling the truth finally could make things better somehow. I don't know if that's possible, but I promised to try.

Michelle Detras
Owner of S.N.A.R.K. space on Quora
and daughter of Michael Howard Rogers

Screenshot of the entire post:

Steve Pierce, then 17, who spent 5 days living under suspicion of murder while Travis was missing, and was then considered a joke when Travis returned, had to leave town. I've been corresponding with Steve on and off for 5 years, and after a year he did come around to the idea it was a hoax at the Gentry Fire Tower (previously he thought it was a government craft that took Travis to Area 51). When I told Steve that Mike had confessed before dying, his response was "wow" - he then posted this on Facebook on 13th March 2026 (para breaks added for clarity):

There are many things that a person can keep secret , many dark truths that they never talk about, or won't ever admit , and inevitably they end up taking these hidden truths to the grave. Some things were meant to stay covered , and somethings need to be shared, no matter how ugly they may seem. If it's meant to be known, the truth always has a way of coming out.

The passing of Mike Rogers has finally truth behind Fire in the Sky and what really happened to Travis. Upon his deathbed, his last words revealed the ugly truth that has been the subject of much speculation for so many yrs. He revealed that the abduction was indeed a staged hoax. The whole set up was orchestrated in the disturbed minds of Mike and Travis. This horrible plot to gain popularity has ruined the lives of so many that were involved. I for one have dealt with the backlash over this for many many yrs. It has destroyed my life and the lives of those that were close to me.

Since I was 17 , I have lived with the horror of what I witnessed that night in the woods. It has haunted me in every aspect of my life. I have lived with the tumultuous chaos every day. My whole life has revolved around Fire in the Sky and to finally have validation that it was all a hoax, has sent me on the road to utmost devastation.

How dare Mike and Travis live with this secret all these yrs. knowing what it has done to the lives of those involved , not to mention the public. This lie is of epic proportions.

How dare Travis gain popularity and monetary gain at the expense of myself and a few others. He is nothing but a liar, a fake ,a phony ,a thief and abominable human being.

Perhaps Mike had to confess so that he could finally have peace. But I ask you ,what about my peace? My peace was stolen from me and I've not known anything else in my life. I have lost everything I've ever had , because I couldn't move passed the trauma that this has caused me. John died believing this was all true. He too lived with the trauma , never knowing what was real. I hope now he rests in peace. As for Mike, you have a lot to answer for, as for Travis your day of reckoning is coming, and that is something I will take to the grave.
Steve Pierce

Source: Steve Pierce on his Facebook page (he now goes by Jeff, his legal name)

Steve also posted a couple of Reels:

Last time we talked he told me everything. He told me, "I'm gonna confess when I die." I asked him, I said, "What are you gonna confess?" He wouldn't tell me."
It was a hoax. It was the tower.*

Source: Steve's Reel, 13 Mar 2026
*Gentry Tower

Fifty years you've been slandering my name, Travis Walton and Mike Rogers... It's nothing but a hoax.

Source: Steve's Reel, 18 Mar 2026
Note: Steve is under the misapprehension that Mike's sister (Travis's wife) Dana "spilled the beans".

 

[JMartJr]

Would that more hoaxers who fool a lot of people would have similar moments where their conscious prompts them to tell the truth at last.

My condolences to Mr. Rogers's family and friends.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

This has no value.

I myself am pretty skeptical of this story. It has too much of the "Grandpa's Confession" trope feel to it. And it can be easily dismissed by anyone so inclined.

It also contains dumb stuff like this...

One of his last hoaxes includes what is known as the Phoenix Lights...
He said that he did not intend to fly his UFO over the enormous city of Phoenix...

Oh, brother...


Lastly, the TW case was an obvious hoax in the first place. Beating a dead horse.

 

[NorCal Dave]

This has limited value. I myself am kind of skeptical of this story. It has too much of the "Grandfather's Confession" trope feel to it. And it can be easily dismissed by anyone so inclined.

This case was an obvious hoax in the first place. Beating a dead horse.

Agreed. Unfortunately, this is a classic deathbed confession being passed on 2nd hand. And we have Rogers taking credit for the Phoenix Lights, which was in large part some A10s with flares. Maybe Rogers happened to be attempting a UFO hoax for unknown reasons at the same time some Maryland Air National Guard A10s were traing with flares, but that seems a stretch. Possibly a bit of confabulation. Possibly putting Rogers, posthumously at the center of 2 of the biggest UFO stories in Arizona.

Walton will carry on and the UFO crowd will carry on.

 

[John J.]

I'm collecting here some related sources. The relevant part of her Quora post:

The statement by Michelle Detras is rather odd, I think.
Consider,

On Friday, February 6th my father died... His name was Michael Howard Rogers. He was best known for his role as the crew captain in the movie Fire In The Sky.

But the real Michael Rogers didn't have a "role as the crew captain in the movie Fire In The Sky", the role of the crew captain in the movie Fire In The Sky (listed as Mike Rogers) was played by Robert Patrick (Wikipedia Fire in the Sky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_in_the_Sky, also IMDB https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0106912/?ref_=fn_t_1)

Maybe I'm being overly pedantic, but I feel this is odd phrasing. Surely his actual part in whatever took place- and (allegedly) the fact that he lied to his family for decades- would be more important to her than his portrayal in a movie. Sure, maybe mention the film, but still.

There's this,

...he was terrified of going to jail or prison- most specifically for the Phoenix Lights hoax- because the military got involved to investigate what was definitely seen as a potential threat to millions of people

(my emphasis) which seems, perhaps paradoxically, to chime with the Ufology belief that the military take UFOs desperately seriously as possible- if not probable or proven- alien spacecraft.
I doubt that there's any documentary evidence that anyone in a relevant position of authority ever raised the possibility of millions of people being threatened by the Phoenix lights.

Then the claims of additional hoaxes:

It also contains dumb stuff like this...

One of his last hoaxes includes what is known as the Phoenix Lights... He said that he did not intend to fly his UFO over the enormous city of Phoenix...

Oh, brother...

I think we can be fairly confident about the probable causes of the "Phoenix lights". I agree with Z.W. Wolf's sentiments.
Unlikely coincidences do occur, but like @NorCal Dave (post #8) I'm not sure I buy that Mr. Rogers happened to "fly a UFO" at the roughly the same time and location as a likely known cause for (at least the main part of) the observed lights.

And

This includes several crop circles in England beginning with an intricate snowflake design in 1994.

Transatlantic flights aren't that expensive, but lots of crop circles (many hundreds, perhaps thousands) were made from the end of the 70s to the early 2000s in England, about half of them in Wiltshire and neighbouring Hampshire (they continue to a lesser extent).
Why go to the expense of flying over just to add a few more? Why not do it in the States?

Almost all scientific, and most journalistic, curiosity about crop circle's origins largely evaporated around 1991/ 1992, when it was demonstrated that designs as complex as any claimed to be from "real" crop circles could be made by very few people using very simple, very cheap tools, and that those who claimed that authentic circles had unreproducible physical characteristics couldn't in fact tell known hoax circles from circles of unknown origin that they believed to be "real" (brief notes about this in post #123, "Are All UFO Reports Wrong, Or Are They Evidence That UFOs Exist?" thread, see also Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crop_circle).
Maybe a crop circle in 1994 would be entertaining for the numerous summer campers who used to congregate at Honeystreet and other Wiltshire locations for the purpose of finding crop circles (maybe they still do), but post 1992 or thereabouts it wouldn't get much attention outside of woo enthusiasts (and others who just enjoyed the designs).

This is from the current website of The Barge Inn, Honeystreet, "Local Attractions" https://thebargeinnhoneystreet.uk/local-attractions/

 

[jackfrostvc]

Although you can question the death bed second hand nature and phoenix light stuff of this from Rogers daughter . It should be noted that Rogers years ago had posted that Travis was a UFO hoaxer.

 

[NorCal Dave]

Although you can question the death bed second hand nature and phoenix light stuff of this from Rogers daughter . It should be noted that Rogers years ago had posted that Travis was a UFO hoaxer.

I have a "yeah but"....Yeah but, if he just confessed to Walton's abduction being a hoax, it's 2nd hand, but kinda fits with things he said a few years ago and fits with things people like you and @Charlie Wiser have shared over the years. In that context, the idea that he made a death bed confession, trope that it is, confirming what a lot of people suspected and provided evidence for would at least fit the narrative. IF his confession included him as the author of the Phoenix Lights AND the creator of UK crop circles (I missed this reference @John J. ), then the whole deathbed confession isn't just a trope, it's delusional. Or his daughter is placing him into various UFO situations, like Billy Broady did with his dad. Either way, it makes the confession about the Walton abduction as dismissable as his claims of creating crop circles.

Unless of course it can be shown he was regularly traveling to the UK when corp circles were appearing. Doesn't mean the whole Walton abduction isn't a hoax, just that Roger's confession via his daughter isn't that compelling.

 

[JMartJr]

Doesn't mean the whole Walton abduction isn't a hoax, just that Roger's confession via his daughter isn't that compelling.

Not hyper compelling by itself, but as you say it fits in with other bits of evidence of greater or lesser... compellingness? It fits into the pattern of what else we know. It's a grain of sand sort of bit of evidence -- but you get enough of those fitting together, you get a solid piece of sandstone, and enough pf those and you can build an Edifice of Truth!

There, how's that for pushing a poetic metaphor to and then past the limits? ^_^

But anyway, for me, I was already convinced to my own satisfaction that the Walton case was a hoax. My understanding of the case does not require Mr. Rogers's additional confession. But it can't hurt.

In that context, the idea that he made a death bed confession, trope that it is

It's a trope for a valid reason. Of course, not everybody on their deathbed believes that they are about to meet their maker, and that they might ought to take advantage of one last chance to get their transgressions confessed and a last buff and shine on their soul. But for those that do so believe, a deathbed confession is a big deal.

I have no idea what Mr. Rogers's religious convictions were, I'm speaking more generally of the tradition of a deathbed confession and why it is taken more seriously than, say, a statement made on a random Friday afternoon.

And of course, even for those who are not religious at all, one last chance to get something you feel a bit sorry for off your chest is there, for the last time, or even just to say, "Ha, I fooled you all!" when you know there will be no repercussions

 

[Charlie Wiser]

This has no value.

I myself am pretty skeptical of this story. It has too much of the "Grandpa's Confession" trope feel to it. And it can be easily dismissed by anyone so inclined.

Anyone so inclined can dismiss anything. That doesn't diminish the value of an actual confession - we can judge it on its merits when it comes out in full. If Travis confesses, will that also have no value to you?

It also contains dumb stuff like this...

Oh, brother...

The first part of the Phoenix Lights (the V-shaped craft with 7 lights) fits a hoax theory better than the accepted skeptical theory (planes) imo. So, if someone hoaxed it - why not him? For years, Mike has been talking about his 20 years of research on this case after he witnessed the V-shaped craft in Prescott. He's always been adamant it was a hoax. His behavior, descriptions and speculations in interviews, in retrospect, sound like confession. This is the only UFO case he's shown any interest in pursuing (aside from the one that made him famous). I may write up a longer analysis soon if I can find an area of Metabunk where it's relevant.

Lastly, the TW case was an obvious hoax in the first place. Beating a dead horse.

A truly odd response. Debunking a case that's famous and beloved in the UFO community is now "beating a dead horse"?

 

[Charlie Wiser]

Agreed. Unfortunately, this is a classic deathbed confession being passed on 2nd hand. And we have Rogers taking credit for the Phoenix Lights, which was in large part some A10s with flares.

A gliding V-shaped craft with 7 lights sounds like a hoax to me.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

The statement by Michelle Detras is rather odd, I think.
Consider,

On Friday, February 6th my father died... His name was Michael Howard Rogers. He was best known for his role as the crew captain in the movie Fire In The Sky.

...

Maybe I'm being overly pedantic, but I feel this is odd phrasing. Surely his actual part in whatever took place- and (allegedly) the fact that he lied to his family for decades- would be more important to her than his portrayal in a movie. Sure, maybe mention the film, but still.

Yes, you're being overly pedantic. What she says is accurate - the vast majority of people (including her) know the Travis Walton case as "Fire in the Sky".

And the rest of her statement makes it very clear that the lies he told his family for decades are extremely important to her (a fact I can confirm after corresponding with her).

There's this,

...he was terrified of going to jail or prison- most specifically for the Phoenix Lights hoax- because the military got involved to investigate what was definitely seen as a potential threat to millions of people

(my emphasis) which seems, perhaps paradoxically, to chime with the Ufology belief that the military take UFOs desperately seriously as possible- if not probable or proven- alien spacecraft.
I doubt that there's any documentary evidence that anyone in a relevant position of authority ever raised the possibility of millions of people being threatened by the Phoenix lights.

It was seen as a threat to millions of people because thousands of witnesses (by some reports) thought they saw an alien craft. Not because the military thought it was a threat to millions. But that's not even the point - the point is that the military got involved... for whatever reason. That's why he's saying he didn't come clean.

Then the claims of additional hoaxes:

I think we can be fairly confident about the probable causes of the "Phoenix lights". I agree with Z.W. Wolf's sentiments.

Nobody to my knowledge has ever properly examined the hoax theory.

Unlikely coincidences do occur, but like @NorCal Dave (post #8) I'm not sure I buy that Mr. Rogers happened to "fly a UFO" at the roughly the same time and location as a likely known cause for (at least the main part of) the observed lights.

He's not claiming anything to do with the main part of the observed lights (flares).

And

This includes several crop circles in England beginning with an intricate snowflake design in 1994.

Transatlantic flights aren't that expensive, but lots of crop circles (many hundreds, perhaps thousands) were made from the end of the 70s to the early 2000s in England, about half of them in Wiltshire and neighbouring Hampshire (they continue to a lesser extent).
Why go to the expense of flying over just to add a few more? Why not do it in the States?

Who said he went to that expense just to make crop circles?
So many assumptions being made.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

IF his confession included him as the author of the Phoenix Lights AND the creator of UK crop circles (I missed this reference @John J. ), then the whole deathbed confession isn't just a trope, it's delusional.

It's not delusional if he did those things. Crop circles are hoaxes - why can't he be a crop circle hoaxer? He talked in 2022 about meeting crop circlemakers in England in 1994 and going out to try and make his own. (Since this was pre-deathbed-confession-Mike, he finishes the story with a UFO sighting.)

I had gone to England as a part of, you know, promoting Fire in the Sky but after that I went back to England because I wanted to find out more about crop circles. In the process I got with these people who were who called themselves the circle makers, and this guy named John Luthgren [Lungberg] was head of that. And I would watch them make crop circles at night and even during the daytime... Anyway when I was there in 1976 [1994] I decided that I was going to try to lay out a crop circle on my own and see what I could do with it. I went out late one night after one o'clock and I had everything ready. I knew the process because I'd watched these guys doing it, I hope a lot of times I watched several big crop circles being made. And so I was out there and I went under a fence to go into this field that I had picked out and when I looked up I saw an orb... going around and it made a crop circle in less than a minute while I was watching.

Source: Alien Addict interviews Mike Rogers, Sep 2, 2022 [timestamped]

Or his daughter is placing him into various UFO situations, like Billy Broady did with his dad. Either way, it makes the confession about the Walton abduction as dismissable as his claims of creating crop circles.

He already confessed to the TW hoax in 2021.

A "true believer" podcaster asked me the other day if his daughter was "paid off". Now skeptics are calling her a liar. It's far more likely that Mike was a narcissistic wife-beating serial hoaxer, which is where the evidence points.

Unless of course it can be shown he was regularly traveling to the UK when corp circles were appearing. Doesn't mean the whole Walton abduction isn't a hoax, just that Roger's confession via his daughter isn't that compelling.

It's a strawman to ask why he was going to the UK "regularly". Additionally, not all crop circles are found.

 

[Mendel]

Additionally, not all crop circles are found.

I'd say not all are reported? The farmers probably find them.

 

[Nemon]

The first part of the Phoenix Lights (the V-shaped craft with 7 lights) fits a hoax theory better than the accepted skeptical theory (planes) imo. So, if someone hoaxed it - why not him? For years, Mike has been talking about his 20 years of research on this case after he witnessed the V-shaped craft in Prescott.

Could you please share the sources or references for these claims? This is the first time I've heard about Rogers' long-term involvement with the Phoenix Lights. Also, I'm curious about how Michelle came to contact you or share her statements with you. Sorry if all this is obvious and my questions seem completely clueless.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

I'd say not all are reported? The farmers probably find them.

From what I understand, farmers do not report them - they hate them because it causes tourists and trespassers. So while farmers probably find them all, the public doesn't know about them.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

Could you please share the sources or references for these claims? This is the first time I've heard about Rogers' long-term involvement with the Phoenix Lights. Also, I'm curious about how Michelle came to contact you or share her statements with you. Sorry if all this is obvious and my questions seem completely clueless.

Rogers (and the rest of the crew) started doing the podcast rounds again about 10 years ago because of the release of the documentary Travis. I've got transcripts of lots of those interviews (from when I was researching the TW case) and Rogers often brought up the Phoenix Lights too. In retrospect it sounds like he panicked when the UFO went off-course over Phoenix, and then obsessively tried to figure out why in the days after. He also seemed curious about why people misperceived what they saw (I would say he was a skeptic at heart) and was writing a book about illusions for the last few years.

This is his (self-written) bio that appears in the description of several of his interviews - e.g. the first one below, so "two years ago" means 2017:

Mike Rogers has worked in logging much of his life, even summers when he went to school. When he was 28, he had his own crew. In 1975, he had a 6-man crew, of which Travis Walton was a sawyer. A year after that well-known UFO encounter and Walton's apparent abduction, he started working with his father again, then went back to school for a time. In 1997, he was witness to the Phoenix Lights while standing on a hill near Prescott, Arizona. Before and after the Lights, he operated a domestic tree service business, which did very well.

Ever since witnessing the Phoenix Lights, he has conducted his own very thorough, 22-year, in-depth investigation into the Lights, discovering numerous never-before-known realities. Two years ago, he started speaking of these revelations, some are quite disturbing, even to hardened skeptics. His scientific abstract was published in the May issue of the MUFON Journal, endorsed by Astronomer, Hal Povenmire.

Mike's sighting and "speculation":

I was on my way to Phoenix... and I stopped by Prescott [to visit a friend who wasn't home]. Because I was very interested in the Hale Bopp comet and had a professional camera, I went up on this hill... a little over 7000 ft high and started trying to film the comet, but it was too dark. I put the camera away and was starting to leave, taking a last look at the comet, and these lights started coming up a little to the right... They were in a kind of a V shape, a chevron shape coming towards me. They got closer and closer and closer...

The leading edge of this thing was kind of wide, connecting 7 lights... There was a solid thing that connected all these lights that was in a chevron shape but I could also clearly see there was also something not nearly as dark as the thing that connected them all, not nearly as dark as the chevron, but there was something like a semi-solid substance that created a delta wing...

I then chased it. I got in my truck and I took off and I did a little speeding going down the interstate. I came close to catching up to it, but when I did get within sight of the valley and I stopped on a hill there near Anthem AZ, and I couldn't catch up to it... I just sat there and watched it as it slowly went over South Mountain [south of Phoenix]...

Basically it was first seen in Arizona by me and people in Paulden Arizona [20mi N of Prescott] and Prescott... There was a number of witnesses there who saw it and it went from there as a solid object. Nobody saw a group of lights at that point...

Within a week or two after that, I conducted 18 separate interviews by myself [and] two in Boulder City [Nevada] several years later. Most of them were within several days of the event itself there in Prescott and down along the highway and a few that were in Phoenix...

I have speculated about this myself and gone into depth about it – that could've been made relatively – well it would still cost several thousand dollars, it doesn't matter who did it. I think that it had something to do with the Airforce and the government, because it looks to be very much to be something that was deliberate and for the purpose of getting public reaction.

My near conclusion is that it was lifted by a lighter-than-air substance, probably helium, and it was carried on the wind because it went exactly in precise alignment with the wind in direction, elevation, and speed... This was the time of year when the winds in Arizona are at their highest... In this particular case there was this thing where the wind just went oooh right down over Arizona going south and then bent back and then rejoined the jet stream, the low jet stream towards the east, and that is very unusual.

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed by Kevin Randle, Oct 17, 2019. Spreaker.

Speculation on how the hoax was made:

There's only one thing I've done in ufology in the last few 20 years or so, and that's the Phoenix Lights. The Phoenix Lights were a hoax. I have proof... The first event was it was a large thing that I am convinced now was more than likely a government creation. It was a third of a mile in diameter, but that could be created, especially with government money. And I believe they did that to find out where the public thinking was...

My belief is that it was created and it was held in the air by lighter-than-air gas, and it had that that very large shape to it, all put together with plastic and wire, very light material. It was suspended by gas... it was actually carried on the wind. And the proof I have is that the object, as large as it was, was actually carried on the wind, all the way from up north, all the way down across Phoenix, and where it disappeared down on the southeastern corner of Arizona, because that's the actual track of the wind and the speed of the object actually matches the speed of the wind at that altitude...

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed on Alien Addict, Sep 2, 2022. YouTube.

He is absolutely certain it was a hoax:

Robert Sheaffer has come on me pretty strong. I tell him, I say look, Robert, I have come to know that skeptics are every bit as gullible, every bit as biased as believers, you know.

I said, "I'll tell you what, if you really are after the truth, I have the truth about the Phoenix Lights, I've got all the documentation. The first event was not an extraterrestrial vehicle."

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed on 51 Areas by Dave Miller, Mar 23, 2021. Spreaker.

He immediately tried to track its path:

The next day I went over to Channel 12... I wanted to find out about the weather. They couldn't tell me anything but they gave me a number of the National Weather Service and that afternoon I got hold of them. They had this thing called daily weather charts, and I ordered some and within less than a week I got them, of course it was back up on the mountain that I got them. That's when I knew that what I had seen was carried on the wind for certain, because it was the exact same path...

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed on UFO Chronicles Podcast ep 69, Jun 9, 2020

He found a piece and has been researching for 23 years:

I can see that this thing was fabricated. In fact later on, like the next day, I went back and believe it or not, out there in the woods, back where this thing passed over, I found a sheet of plastic that had broken off from this thing. I could see it floating down as it went past and I didn't know what it was, but I went over in that direction later. And it was 10 feet wide and about 32 feet long, extremely thin, extremely thin...

I have investigated the Phoenix Lights every year since, which is almost 23 years now, and I've come up with amazing things but nobody wants to hear. Because everybody just wants to believe. They don't give a damn about the wind or anything else.

Q: What would be man-made that that it could have been?

Well, it was man-made and I've investigated that to the hilt and I've come up with a lot of leads, and I won't say it here because I might indict somebody.

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed on Podcast UFO, Oct 25, 2020


Re. second question:
I first talked to Michelle back in 2022 in relation to my email correspondence with her mother (who was Mike's wife in 1975) for a piece I was writing. Then in 2024 she wrote directing me to a Quora post of hers about (among other things) how reading my site (in combination with what she already knew) helped her realize the TW case was a hoax. In early March she again wrote directing me to her Quora post about Mike's deathbed confession, and we've been corresponding since.

 

[Nemon]

@Charlie Wiser
Thank you very much for your detailed reply. One big remaining Questions is of Course about the sheet of plastic Rogers claimed he had found in the Woods. What exactly did he do with it? Was it examined by anyone? If so, by whom and are there any records or photos? And finally, where is it now, does it still exist?

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

Anyone so inclined can dismiss anything. That doesn't diminish the value of an actual confession - we can judge it on its merits when it comes out in full. If Travis confesses, will that also have no value to you?



The first part of the Phoenix Lights (the V-shaped craft with 7 lights) fits a hoax theory better than the accepted skeptical theory (planes) imo. So, if someone hoaxed it - why not him? For years, Mike has been talking about his 20 years of research on this case after he witnessed the V-shaped craft in Prescott. He's always been adamant it was a hoax. His behavior, descriptions and speculations in interviews, in retrospect, sound like confession. This is the only UFO case he's shown any interest in pursuing (aside from the one that made him famous). I may write up a longer analysis soon if I can find an area of Metabunk where it's relevant.



A truly odd response. Debunking a case that's famous and beloved in the UFO community is now "beating a dead horse"?

We've got different agendas. I like solving cases, the way I like solving any elaborate puzzle. The TW case was solved many moons ago. Adding anything is beating a dead horse. Especially another a bit of "evidence" which is pretty obviously just another hoax.

I'm not trying to convince the dedicated Ufologists of anything.

Is that what you're trying to do? Convince the dedicated UFOlogists? Why don't you try something easier, like convincing dedicated Scientologists, once and for all, that L. Ron Hubbard was a bizarre con artist.

There's no such a thing as Xemu, Lucky really isn't chasing some kids who stole his Lucky Charms, and Travis Walton wasn't abducted by Aliens.

 

[FatPhil]

Yes, you're being overly pedantic. What she says is accurate - the vast majority of people (including her) know the Travis Walton case as "Fire in the Sky".

That's not what @John J. is objecting to. He's, and I'm 100% behind him on this, saying that he wouldn't be known for his role in the movie as he didn't have a role in the movie - he was depicted in it. That's A2O. If people familiar with the movie are unable to distinguish between the portrayer and the portrayed in dramatisations, then what she said might be accurate, but that would require assuming pretty poor mental faculties. Is that what you're stating?

 

[FatPhil]

I'd say not all are reported? The farmers probably find them.

Farmers can be disincentivised against reporting them, as that encourages the making of them, which damages more crops. Sure, there might be a short-term incentive to get the first one on the local news, but I'm sure that excitement wears thin once it starts cutting into your cider money.

 

[JMartJr]

He's, and I'm 100% behind him on this, saying that he wouldn't be known for his role in the movie as he didn't have a role in the movie - he was depicted in it.

That does not seem a super-unlikely mistake for a person not in "the biz" to make.

 

[jdog]

I have speculated about this myself and gone into depth about it – that could've been made relatively – well it would still cost several thousand dollars, it doesn't matter who did it. I think that it had something to do with the Airforce and the government, because it looks to be very much to be something that was deliberate and for the purpose of getting public reaction.

My near conclusion is that it was lifted by a lighter-than-air substance, probably helium, and it was carried on the wind because it went exactly in precise alignment with the wind in direction, elevation, and speed... This was the time of year when the winds in Arizona are at their highest... In this particular case there was this thing where the wind just went oooh right down over Arizona going south and then bent back and then rejoined the jet stream, the low jet stream towards the east, and that is very unusual.[/ex]
Source: Mike Rogers interviewed by Kevin Randle, Oct 17, 2019. Spreaker.

Speculation on how the hoax was made:

There's only one thing I've done in ufology in the last few 20 years or so, and that's the Phoenix Lights. The Phoenix Lights were a hoax. I have proof... The first event was it was a large thing that I am convinced now was more than likely a government creation. It was a third of a mile in diameter, but that could be created, especially with government money. And I believe they did that to find out where the public thinking was...

My belief is that it was created and it was held in the air by lighter-than-air gas, and it had that that very large shape to it, all put together with plastic and wire, very light material. It was suspended by gas... it was actually carried on the wind. And the proof I have is that the object, as large as it was, was actually carried on the wind, all the way from up north, all the way down across Phoenix, and where it disappeared down on the southeastern corner of Arizona, because that's the actual track of the wind and the speed of the object actually matches the speed of the wind at that altitude...

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed on Alien Addict, Sep 2, 2022. YouTube.
...

He found a piece and has been researching for 23 years:

I can see that this thing was fabricated. In fact later on, like the next day, I went back and believe it or not, out there in the woods, back where this thing passed over, I found a sheet of plastic that had broken off from this thing. I could see it floating down as it went past and I didn't know what it was, but I went over in that direction later. And it was 10 feet wide and about 32 feet long, extremely thin, extremely thin...

I have investigated the Phoenix Lights every year since, which is almost 23 years now, and I've come up with amazing things but nobody wants to hear. Because everybody just wants to believe. They don't give a damn about the wind or anything else.

Q: What would be man-made that that it could have been?

Well, it was man-made and I've investigated that to the hilt and I've come up with a lot of leads, and I won't say it here because I might indict somebody.

Source: Mike Rogers interviewed on Podcast UFO, Oct 25, 2020

I'm kind of stuck on this theory that some government agency in 1997 built a 600-yard-diameter framework with bright lights on the leading edge of it, suspended it from one or more giant balloons, and then just let it float away in Nevada to drift in the wind for hours to see how people would react.

 

[NorCal Dave]

A gliding V-shaped craft with 7 lights sounds like a hoax to me.

After reading your response to @Nemon I think a dedicated thread about Rogers involvement in the Phoenix Lights would be fun, informative and more focused. I don't recall the exact timeline of that event, but it be quite a coincident if Rogers was engaging in a hoax that got away from him on the same day some A10s from across the country happened to be training with flares. If so, that would be enlightening.

Now skeptics are calling her a liar.

Come now, has anybody here called her a liar? I think we're trying to be consistent and holding her account to the same level of scrutiny we hold any "death-bed confession" as reported 2nd hand.

At best, it's 2nd hand. Rogers didn't go to a lawyer and have a notarized affidavit prepared. As of now, there is no recording of Rogers making this confession. Even if there is, it's likely if he's at the end stage of a fatal illness and in home Hospice care, one would still wonder how lucid he is. But for now, we just have his daughter's report of what he said.

At worst, it's an old trope.

As skeptics we should not fall into the same mistake so many others do when a supposed "death bed confession" aligns with what we want to hear. As you pointed out, he sorta confessed already, only the hard core still take Walton seriously and your own website lays out how and when a hoax happened.

What should our reaction be if the death bed confession had been that it was all real and Walton was in fact taken into an alien UFO? I think we'd all be skeptical.

 

[John J.]

There have been near-death revelations associated with UFOs before, notably Boyd Bushman, former Lockheed engineer.
Thread Debunked: Boyd Bushman, Area 51 scientist, claims existence of aliens in deathbed video [Hoax], my post # 13 in the "Scale, Viability and Cost of the Conspiracy..." thread, Snopes "Did Boyd Bushman Provide Evidence of Alien Contact?" 31 Oct 2014, David Mikkelson https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/boyd-bushman-aliens/

A Daily Mirror story (link in post #13, "Scale, Viability.." as above) says Bushman attended Brigham Young University, so he was probably a Mormon like Rogers. Don't know what to make of this, but I think another member here (@NorCal Dave? Apologies if wrong) noticed that several notable people in the UFO field/ narrative have connections with the Church of the Latter-day Saints.
Bushman's account has been effectively debunked. Near-death disclosures are not necessarily reliable.

Ben Rich, another Lockheed engineer and notably the second director of the "Skunk Works" (Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Rich_(engineer)) is claimed to have made a "deathbed confession" (that we know about aliens, current US aircraft are based on alien tech and we have FTL travel) but the reliability of these claims- whether Rich ever said anything even remotely like this- is much more questionable than Bushman's video account, and perhaps has little credibility outside UFO enthusiast circles, e.g.
"Ben Rich - Deathbed Confession" (complete with tasteless illustration), The Night Sky II website https://www.thenightskyii.org/deathbed3.html.
"UFOs Are Real : Ben Rich Lockheed CEO Admitted In His Deathbed" (Rich wasn't a Lockheed CEO AFAIK, History Oasis website https://www.historyoasis.com/post/lockheed-martin-ceo-history) Sightings.com website http://sightings.com/1.reports2010/benrich.html

If Roger's "confession" is at least in part accurate, it means he lied to his daughter for decades (or at least didn't confide in her; we don't know the dynamics of their relationship).
It is established beyond reasonable doubt that some people have maintained improbable UFO-related stories to the end of their lives, and others have made dramatic (and debunked) "disclosures".
Michael Rogers has been an unreliable source- by his own admission, if his final account is accurate in any way- and might have been to the end.

Rogers cast doubt on Travis' version of events in 2021, but (as far as I can make out) he didn't seem to say he (Rogers) had been involved in a hoax. It's unclear if he was still maintaining if there was a UFO, or maybe a fake UFO which he thought might not be real (implying he wasn't part of a hoax):

"We were talking in the woods one day... We were talking about creating a UFO hoax, okay? I don't know how the UFO got there. But I remember... when I was driving the truck and he jumped out, it was all deliberate. It was all a staged thing, okay? He ran up there and there was something about the UFO not being real, although it looked real."

Wikipedia, Travis Walton incident https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travis_Walton_incident

A possible motivation for Roger's change of story might be his finding out that Travis intended to make more money from the story without involving Rogers, Wikipedia again

He later clarified: "Travis tried to keep a new remake of the movie a secret from me. He has always had his big secrets that he has kept from me. It angered me. I tried over the last two weeks to reason with [him], but of no avail. I don't believe Travis is an honest person, and therefore I want nothing to do with him."

But Rogers later appears to have recanted, saying later in 2021

I, Michael H. Rogers, make an open apology to Travis C. Walton for anything negative I may have said against him within the last few years.

...and Walton made a very similar reciprocal statement
(Bad UFOs website, Robert Sheaffer, 2021 https://badufos.blogspot.com/2021/03/mike-rogers-says-that-he-is-no-longer.html)

Again, at least some of Michael Rogers' accounts are probably unreliable. His final statement about his role as a hoaxer might be truthful but it contains details which, given his track record, some of us might find hard to believe, and as far as we know he provided no corroborating evidence (photos, details of how he hoaxed the Phoenix lights, anything else).

 

[JMartJr]

don't recall the exact timeline of that event, but it be quite a coincident if Rogers was engaging in a hoax that got away from him on the same day some A10s from across the country happened to be training with flares.

There's a bit of coincidence there anyway -- the two incidents that night are not directly related. The first, the V-shaped formation of lights that were identified as being on a formation of aircraft by one witness who had a telescope and thus got a closer look were earlier in the evening than the lint of flares beyond the mountains, dropped by (presumably) different aircraft. Not an amazing coincidence, as there was training involving multiple teams of aircraft in the area at the time.

The two separate events remain seperated in time (and almost surely cause) however much credence one gives to the telescopic identification -- the second set of lights that "hover" then go out one by one are clearly flares slowly drifting downwards beyond the mountains. (Gif/video shwowing the later lights were being occluded by montains, and thus beyond the mountains, over where flares were being dropped, is HERE: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/phoenix-lights.11938/post-311609)

Further discussion of that I guess would be off topic here, but the thread about the Phoenix Lights is interesting -- and is here: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/phoenix-lights.11938/