Rendlesham Forest UFO Incident

But we know for a fact that most cases just don't happen that way. Reality is complicated and, almost always, several unrelated factors contribute to a certain outcome. Think of it like an air crash investigation. Almost always, a long chain of events leads up to a catastrophic outcome, and few crashes can be explained by a single cause.
I simply don't agree with you on that. A group of people isn't necessarily a more reliable source than a single person. Independent witnesses are obviously a different matter, but humans in groups often conform to the emerging interpretation, even if their initial perception differs. This is classic conformity (think of Asch's line experiments), where individuals adjust their reports to match the group in order to avoid standing out or seeming "wrong." It's not that they're lying — memory is reconstructive, and social influences are strong factors.

Surely the crux of the matter is just how many 'complicated factors' you have to fudge into the equation. It reminds me of one of the bizarre interpretations of the Calvine UFO....that it was an upside down photo of a pond where the fence and the rock that was the 'UFO' and the tree branches hanging down ( or is it up ) all magically line up and the upside down clouds that only 'look' upside down but aren't really, and........heck it would be simpler if an alien spaceship was actually there !

And so it is with all these 'complicated factors'. A lighthouse that doesn't have the blue lights that were seen by Penniston, and two others on the first night. A lighthouse that gets recognised AS a lighthouse in statements from that first night.....and yet which somehow gets completely forgotten about by the time Halt goes out. A lighthouse that 'shoots off pieces'. And the bit everyone misses...two lights, not just one...

HALT: Pieces of it are shooting off.

VOICE: At eleven o'clock...

HALT: There is no doubt about it. This is weird!

VOICE (NEVELS?): To the left...

HALT: Definitely moving...

VOICE (NEVELS?): Two lights – one light just behind [?] and one light to the left.


http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/halttape3.html


Then we have 'Stars' in the north that get mysteriously mistaken for UFOs. But hold on....its not the mere two stars ( Vega and Deneb ) that Ian Ridpath claims. Once again we have numbers just being ignored....as the tape clearly says five lights....

HALT: We've passed the farmer's house and are crossing the next field and now we have multiple sightings of up to five lights with a similar shape and all but they seem to be steady now rather than a pulsating or glow with a red flash.

And then we have to explain how Sirius, which had been sitting there all along, suddenly manages to achieve this....

HALT: They're both heading north. Hey, here he comes from the south, he's coming toward us now.

HALT: Now we're observing what appears to be a beam coming down to the ground.

SHOUT IN BACKGROUND: Colours! [?]

HALT: This is unreal. [Laughs]



The deputy commander of a top USAF base, responsible for defending us from the Soviets, thinks a star twinkling in the night sky is 'unreal' ? And I don't hear his men say ' Nah, boss....you just drank too much at the party'.

And none of this is the old bugbear of 'reconstructive memory' that gets dragged out as an excuse every time....for this is a live recording as events unfold.
 
And the fact that something bizarre is occurring is demonstrated by the ' this is unreal'.

Someone saying "This is unreal" is not necessarily evidence that something bizarre is happening.
We know that Halt has already decided that something strange is going on. The three ground depressions are evidence of a "pod", there's a blast area (not seen two days earlier in daylight, or as far as we know by anyone after Halt's expedition), the marks on the trees (all at the same height facing into the clearing- forestry worker axe marks) are something strange, they're detecting heat signature through an instrument that can't detect heat signatures and misreading/ arguably misusing a Geiger counter and finding the readings significant.

There is nothing on his tape, or memo to the MoD, about a light overhead shining a beam down to the ground close to the men, nor did Halt say this over the radio as far as we know. If it happened, it doesn't appear that anyone present mentioned it at the time.

It's entirely possible the men saw moving lights near the horizon, airspace over SE England is busy and was in 1980. There is no evidence that Halt, or the USAF, ever attempted to find out if there were aircraft in the direction(s) they were looking. As you (@Scaramanga) point out, distant aircraft can appear to be fixed points of light until a change of direction makes the point of light move.
 
The deputy commander of a top USAF base, responsible for defending us from the Soviets, thinks a star twinkling in the night sky is 'unreal' ? And I don't hear his men say ' Nah, boss....you just drank too much at the party'.

Well, defending FRG from Soviet tanks, so part of NATO's collective defence.
The point that other ranks/ NCOs are unlikely to question a Lt. Col. has already been made, and I fully agree.
I'll add the caviar, that at least on the recording, these are enlisted men who are not out running around with their enlisted supervisor (a master sergeant I believe) or even their officer supervisor, likely a Lieutenant or Captain. Rather, they are running around with a Lt. Colonial that is the deputy base commander, that is their boss's, boss's, boss's boss. Even if any of these guys were accomplished astronomers, in this situation, they were going to just nod along and say "yes sir"
It is strange that Halt didn't, or couldn't, get a Warrant Officer or more junior commissioned officer to join him. This is very unusual in a military context. And though deputy base commander of an airbase, he didn't take anyone who worked professionally with aircraft.
 
The trouble with a lot of the skepticism is that it doesn't evaluate the event....it just ignores any of it that doesn't fit the narrative. People aren't listening to what the tape is actually saying. They've already decided it can't be anything unusual so it has to be forced into some simplistic 'stars' narrative...whether it actually fits or not.

Any sensible investigator MUST first examine the known factors. Why do you disapprove of that? If the story doesn't fit the known facts, you really have to consider the possibility that the error is in the story.

External Quote:

HALT: And the ones to the north are moving. One's moving away from us.

BACKGROUND VOICE: (indistinct, but includes 'moving')

NEVELS: Moving out fast.

BALL(?): This one on the right's heading away, too.

HALT: They're both heading north. Hey, here he comes from the south, he's coming toward us now.
"They're going north" and "here he comes from the south" sound exactly like the way one would describe the beams from a rotating object, i.e. a lighthouse.
 
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Someone saying "This is unreal" is not necessarily evidence that something bizarre is happening.
We know that Halt has already decided that something strange is going on. The three ground depressions are evidence of a "pod", there's a blast area (not seen two days earlier in daylight, or as far as we know by anyone after Halt's expedition), the marks on the trees (all at the same height facing into the clearing- forestry worker axe marks) are something strange, they're detecting heat signature through an instrument that can't detect heat signatures and misreading/ arguably misusing a Geiger counter and finding the readings significant.

Well, no, we can't just invent Halt's state of mind. And the simple fact is that however they were using or mis-using the Geiger counter, it clearly did detect more of whatever it was they were mearing in the depressions than outside of them. So the notion they were 'mis-using' it is a bit of a red herring. To me its just another example of how important aspects get ignored when some simplistic explanation claims to have explained it all.
 
Any sensible investigator MUST first examine the known factors. Why do you disapprove of that? If the story doesn't fit the known facts, you really have to consider the possibility that the error is in the story.

There is a huge difference between fitting the story to the known facts and forcing the story into the known facts and just ignoring any aspects that don't actually fit. If a simplistic explanation can explain the whole story then fine...but it should not otherwise leave one with a whole load of ' but what about XYZ ?' questions or loose ends.

For example, why would Halt mistake Sirius for a UFO...and not mistake the twice as bright Jupiter/Saturn conjunction for one ? In fact at 3am Sirius would not even have been at its full brightness, due to being so low down. What's more, Halt comments at 3.15am...

HALT: They're both heading north. Hey, here he comes from the south, he's coming toward us now.

But Sirius was not to the south. It was pretty much due southwest. In fact the embarrassing truth for the 'stars' theory is that in between Sirius due southwest and Jupiter due southeast there was 90 degrees with NO bright stars...with due south right in the middle of it.

Halt has been giving compass readings all night...and now he's suddenly off by a whole 45 degrees ? Doesn't that place all the previous bearings, including those closer to the lighthouse, in doubt ?

Sirius is a classic example of something that has been forced to 'fit'. Gosh, if you've got 45 degrees to play with you could make almost any star 'fit' any UFO !
 
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"They're going north" and "here he comes from the south" sound exactly like the way one would describe the beams from a rotating object, i.e. a lighthouse.

Which Halt had failed to notice for the past 3 hours and suddenly finds 'unreal' at 3.15am ?

And a lighthouse 6 miles to the east would not produce a beam 'coming down'. It would be horizontal. Not only that, but as the lighthouse had 3 mirrors you'd get a beam every 5 seconds. But halt only says 'a' beam...not multiple ones separated by 5 seconds.

The lighthouse is a classic example of an 'explanation' that people will defend at all costs.....even when it doesn't fit what is actually being described. And, of course, whatever it was can't have been Sirius and be the lighthouse. Oh....but I suppose one could contrive that too.
 
That is an absurd statement. We have witness testimony literally at the actual time the event occurred.....not something recalled from memory.
And witness testimony is often wrong. Note I said that witness testimony is often wrong as people make mistakes in observation AND memories are fungible.

I list two things that cause witness error. One does not require the passage of time, it happens "live" during the experience.

We have only what witnesses say to back up any of this.And what people say is not reliable. Witnesses saying "this is unreal" is not good evidence that something incredible happened, as it could also be evidence that they were seeing something that was not real, though they had not recognized this. Accepting unsupported witness testimony is accepting the "I know what I saw!" argument. If we dothat, we are accepting witness testimony without supporting evidence as probitive of something. That would be a mistake.

Note I am not saying witnesses are always wrong. But in the absence if supporting evidence, we can't KNOW whether they are wrong, and which parts are wrong, and just how far wrong they are.
 
I listened for the first time to the Rendlesham Forest tape and I'm wondering if this is actually proposed to be a live recording made during the event, or is it a reconstruction?

http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/Halt_tape.m4a

I wonder because based on the work I've done in years of playing with sound collage and ambient recording, I would put a 99% probability that what is being heard there is a constructed audio play. It does sound like it was at some point mastered onto a microcassette or a good facsimile thereof..
The way that the participants are speaking, the breaks in between words, the descriptions used-everything on that recording screams radio play to me. If you read a transcript of the dialogue, it literally reads like a script for an imaginary encounter-in the first 15 seconds of the recording it was clear to me that is not an unscripted recording.

Perhaps I'm missing something and this is actually meant to be a reconstruction?

The more I look into this incident, the more it seems to me to be almost entirely a constructed event based on popular ufo memes and media such as presented in the movie Close Encounters.
 
And the simple fact is that however they were using or mis-using the Geiger counter, it clearly did detect more of whatever it was they were mearing in the depressions than outside of them.
That isn't clear at all. Halt only records figures for one depression.
The 1st mark gave a reading of 0.03-0.04 mR/h.
The 2nd mark was "dead", no values were recorded on tape.
The 3rd mark "I'm getting some residual" (Nevels), "The meter's definitely giving a little pulse" (Halt), no values recorded.
On the tape, Halt says
External Quote:
This is out toward the number one indentation where we first got the strongest reading
a short time after a higher reading was gathered between the indentations. (which Halt described as "...the best deflection of the needle I've seen yet"), so his perception/ recollection of where the highest readings were was inaccurate even at the time.

He is using a small tape recorder so he doesn't have to make written notes. Higher readings were gathered later, not at the depressions.
Halt stated in his memo that readings of 0.1 mR/h were detected; there is no indication of this on the tape.

One of the 0.07 mR/h readings was between the depressions (but only on the second time it was examined- why is this?), so it isn't accurate to say the readings were higher "in the depressions than outside of them." The other 0.07 mR/h reading was from a marking on a tree, gathered while that marking was also being viewed from close by using the Starlight Scope, with its radioactive components. Nevels, using the counter, goes to the other side of the tree away from the scope and shielded by the trunk, and the reading drops. (We know the likely cause of the tree markings).

The second reading (0.07 mR/h) at the point between the depressions seems to have taken while Englund was there, in the middle. He was close enough to Nevels to recount the Geiger counter readings. Englund might have been carrying the Starlite Scope at the time:
He answers when Halt asks about its name, Englund also answers when Halt asks if they are getting a "heat reflection"; and it is Englund who says
External Quote:
...when the lights are turned off, once we are focused in and allow time for the eyes to adjust we are getting an indication of a heat source coming out of that centre spot
...and Englund asks Ball to shine a flashlight on the area being examined with the scope, so it's unlikely Ball was carrying the scope (Ball had it earlier, Halt had it later).
The men are using a Geiger counter but appear unaware that they're also carrying a radiation source. The highest readings seem to be when the two might be close together.

The Geiger counter used was not optimal for measuring background radiation. In addition, at some point the beta shield was removed (we don't know when) and Halt (inexplicably) asks for it to placed on the ground before the highest readings are detected. Halt and co. record peak readings, not readings sustained over time.

Both the UK National Radiological Protection Board and the manufacturers of the AN/PDR-27 Geiger counter have questioned the accuracy of the readings;
External Quote:
NRPB contacted the American manufacturers of the AN/PDR-27, who stated that Halt's peak measurement of 0.1 mR/h was the 'bottom reading on the lowest range' of the monitor and was 'of little or no significance'. They noted further that these instruments are designed to be used to monitor workplace fields or radiation levels after sizable nuclear incidents and are therefore not suitable for environmental monitoring at background levels. On the basis of this information from the manufacturers, NRPB concluded that using such an instrument to establish a level of 10 times background is not credible. ...I subsequently wrote to NRPB to ensure that there was no misunderstanding. In a letter to me dated 1997 July 7 Michael Clark of the NRPB stated: 'We are convinced of the correctness of our interpretation.'
Ian Ridpath, Rendlesham Forest UFO Case website http://www.ianridpath.com/ufo/rendlesham4.html

Giles Cowling of DERA Radiation Protection Services, who advised Nick Pope, didn't know that an AN/PDR-27 had been used; he later said to Ridpath
External Quote:
In my original discussions with Mr Pope I did indeed state that the readings were around 10 times normal background levels, provided that the instrument was appropriate for measuring background radiation (at the time of our discussions he could not state what the instrument was), calibrated and being used/interpreted correctly. I share the NRPB view that the use of a high-range survey instruments to measure (accurately) environmental levels of radiation is somewhat questionable and this must throw some doubt on the validity of the data reported.
(ibid.)
And that's without considering the proximity of the Starlight Scope, the absent beta shield and the counter being placed on the ground and the selective recording of peak, not sustained readings.

Halt takes no action about what he believes are elevated radiation readings (nor does anyone else). He doesn't write his memo until a couple of weeks later. He doesn't alert local or UK authorities about this or the "blast site" (not seen when looked at in daylight 2 days earlier, by a USAF commissioned officer and Suffolk police, within an area less than 4 square metres).

As in some other claimed UFO cases, highly questionable evidence (e.g. the AN/PDR-27 readings), adequately explained by mundane factors, is mythologised by some as something extraordinary.
 
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