Russia and Ukraine Current Events

strategic bombers are only one piece of the puzzle. ICBMs and nuclear submarines are not vulnerable to drone attacks.
Assuming their ICBMs are operational.

Source: https://www.llnl.gov/sites/www/files/2020-05/W78-STR-Mar-12.pdf

External Quote:

By law, the directors of the NNSA weapons laboratories—Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia—provide the secretaries of Energy and Defense with an annual assessment of the stockpile.
...
LEPs address issues discovered through routine surveillance and annual stockpile assessments. Nuclear weapon components are made from various materials including high explosives, steel, plutonium, uranium, and plastics. Over decades, plastics can break down, metals corrode, and coatings deteriorate. A material's properties may change unpredictably in response to high radiation fields, fluctuating temperatures, and other environmental conditions to which stockpile components are subjected.
and also...

Source: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/sci...tists-find-icbms-age-much-faster-they-thought

External Quote:

Chinese rocket scientists find ICBMs age much faster than they thought


Hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles could be unusable, according to new research into the shelf life of missile fuel


A subtle, yet significant, issue with the solid fuel used in intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) has been uncovered in a study by Chinese rocket scientists. And it could explain the frequent launch failures experienced by some nuclear powers in recent years.
Under normal storage conditions, typical missile fuel can appear stable for 160 years or more. But tests conducted at the National Key Laboratory of Solid Rocket Propulsion in Xian found that considerable changes may occur in the fuel columns within 30 years, making them unable to withstand the loads during flight.
 
As seen here and in @Mauro's video from Ukraine (post 1283, above) those are actually tires stacked on top of planes as a form of "protection" that definitely didn't work. Video and commentary on the vulnerability of nuclear weapons - not limited to Russian weapons:

External Quote:

If you are Russia, the United States or any country with nuclear weapons, your national security policies are based around the fact that you have an impenetrable nuclear deterrent. Why would anyone attack you if you could then retaliate by blowing them off the map with your nuclear stockpile?

But Ukraine just disabled a primary piece of Russia's nuclear arsenal with devices that look like they came from RadioShack, which means it has to contend with the fact that its impenetrable nuclear arsenal is not so impenetrable after all.

Sunday's strike also has really important strategic consequences for every country that thinks of itself as having a nuclear deterrent.
https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow...-nuclear-weapons-rcna210654?icid=nextpost_bot
This depends they're not all that. Quite a lot of the tires on planes are a deception technique to condition emerging AI analysis systems and their underlying data pools. Some definitely are cases of people poorly using tires for protection though.

I guess I'm not getting why Ukraine would show their cards like this. Destroying a few bombers may not be a lot in the grand scheme of the war strategically, but by this point I would think the war is as much perception as it is strategy. With the US being like warm at best to helping Ukraine, showing that they can attack multiple targets deep inside Russia is a serious statement to Russia and other potential allies.

At first glance it would seem a fair amount of local cooperation would have been needed this deep in Russian territory. Instead, there is this elaborate ruse with unknowing guys delivering smuggled cabins to various sights near air bases. Assuming this operation was the success it's claimed to be, why explain how it was done? Yes, maybe the Russians would figure it out and it would be hard to pull off again, but why let them in on it? Just think about trying to explain this, even if true, to higher ups. "It appears smuggled cabins were in fact secret drone launch vehicles that instead of being brought to typical cabin spots, were parked near secure air bases. No, really." Just let the Russians stew in a mire of uncertainty.

Not to make light of the situation, but I hear old Inspector Clouseau saying; "Ah yes, the ol' drone-launching-cabin ploy designed to distract us."
Ukraine has quickly become a master class at blending the most tested military and government communication practices from various, well developed nations in that regard. You are correct that it is just as much perception as it is strategy. I'm not sure if you've heard it, but every military or government activity has what is called an "order of effects". Cognitive and Psychological impacts are integrated with every action you conduct, whether or not you recognize and explicitly make use of them. Some of "our" nations are increasingly recognizing and integrating this knowledge.

As to the specifics there, I would offer that itself is also reasonable in various forms. As we've seen the past few years especially wrt Russia-Ukraine, strategic messaging leveraging specially selected intelligence products does act as a legitimate form of influencing adversarial decision making behavior. It can also be a great way to garner continued support from public audiences without exposing critical information related to the operations itself.
Further, these don't get talked about much, but there is an offensive counterintelligence concept called "degradation operations" that seeks to otherwise degrade efforts and capabilities of adversarial intelligence networks. If you ever read related indictments, and you catch those funny ones where they outright post peoples (foreign government) work IDs and pictures of their work offices - those are elements of degradation operations. Or the time the Dutch breached into camera networks of Russian cyber teams office and publicly posted the photos. These can use true or false information, either or. There's a bunch of variations of it, but things like this could absolutely be used as a form of degradation. Both internally (they have to waste time investigating the claims, and there may be other things going on to support the story - real or not) and externally (it degrades perceptions of the efficiency of Russian security services amongst their own decision makers and public).
 
Trump lifts sanctions on some of the Banks that a bankrolling Putins war effort.

https://deanblundell.substack.com/p/breaking-trump-lifts-key-russian

Dean Blundell
Jul 01, 2025

External Quote:

The U.S. Treasury quietly issued General License No. 115B, an order that temporarily lifts sanctions on thirteen of Russia's biggest banks, including the very institutions that help fund Putin's war machine.

The Bottom Line



  • Trump's Treasury just gave Putin's war banks a lifeline.
  • The excuse? "Civil nuclear energy." The reality? Billions in relief for sanctioned banks.
  • While Ukraine's allies increase pressure, Trump is relieving it.
  • This isn't hypothetical—it's happening right now. And the cost could be measured in Ukrainian lives.

fe7df9d0-12a9-4fe8-845f-48319c409044_1176x1272.webp
 
rump lifts sanctions on some of the Banks that a bankrolling Putins war effort.
so the Kyiv Post is really Russian disinformation? it's getting impossible to figure out which publications a person can trust, smh.

Article:
The Trump administration last week quietly extended significant Biden-era sanctions targeting key Russian banks and the energy sector, just days before they were set to expire. A senior official insisted in an interview with Kyiv Post that the current administration has not lifted any sanctions on Moscow since taking office in January.

On June 27, the US Treasury Department issued General License No. 115B, an order that temporarily sanctions thirteen of Russia's biggest banks, including the very institutions that help fund Vladimir Putin's war machine.
 
so the Kyiv Post is really Russian disinformation? it's getting impossible to figure out which publications a person can trust, smh.

Article:
The Trump administration last week quietly extended significant Biden-era sanctions targeting key Russian banks and the energy sector, just days before they were set to expire. A senior official insisted in an interview with Kyiv Post that the current administration has not lifted any sanctions on Moscow since taking office in January.

On June 27, the US Treasury Department issued General License No. 115B, an order that temporarily sanctions thirteen of Russia's biggest banks, including the very institutions that help fund Vladimir Putin's war machine.
There's a hell of a lot more detail and explication in the story than just the potted summary you've decided to quote. I suggest you reread it, this time paying attention to the arguments it puts forward. There's a lot there, you seem to have skimmed it quite sloppily.

My initial conclusion is that the official is being somwhat disingenuous with his choice of language. Clearly some holes have been punched through the prior sanctions, but he doesn't consider that the lifting of those sanctions. KP always say that these are statements from a US official, they're not presenting them as their own conclusions or original thoughts. Blame the US officials if you consider their statements false.
 
There's a hell of a lot more detail and explication in the story than just the potted summary you've decided to quote. I suggest you reread it, this time paying attention to the arguments it puts forward. There's a lot there, you seem to have skimmed it quite sloppily.

My initial conclusion is that the official is being somwhat disingenuous with his choice of language. Clearly some holes have been punched through the prior sanctions, but he doesn't consider that the lifting of those sanctions. KP always say that these are statements from a US official, they're not presenting them as their own conclusions or original thoughts. Blame the US officials if you consider their statements false.
Also I'd be really careful with regards to the skew on this. It's kind of decently known most of the sanctions haven't done a whole lot functionally in re decision making (their point) but sound really good to the public due to the economic degredation (alone doesnt mean a whole lot outside, well, bad impact on civilians). Before waving around any restrictions being lifted as "bankrolling the war" or whatever, it's kind of necessitated to identify whether or not those specific restrictions were ones that had any functional conduct on the war.

For example, quite a few of the energy oriented ones could be very well debated as actually promoting Russia's continued behavior by backing them into an economic-energy resource corner they cannot escape from without risking their own administrations governance. This is an objectively poor deterrence idea when considering cognitive science and usually does not work out. The idea of tanking their economy alone being beneficial only goes as far as it deters or compels decision making behavior - if it doesn't you're largely just harming their public for egotistical feelings and will discentivize public support towards yourself.
 
The idea of tanking their economy alone being beneficial only goes as far as it deters or compels decision making behavior

I disagree to some extent. If the Russian government decides to do something, being able to afford (financially) to do it would seem important.

External sanctions are rarely as effective as their supporters would like them to be, but they do send a message that the policies of the sanctioned nation are viewed unfavourably by the sanctioning nations.
The more that Russia can export, and the wealthier its population, the more revenue the Russian government can collect and spend on its military.

If the war on Ukraine means that the average Russian notices that prices are going up, so be it.
 
I disagree to some extent. If the Russian government decides to do something, being able to afford (financially) to do it would seem important.

External sanctions are rarely as effective as their supporters would like them to be, but they do send a message that the policies of the sanctioned nation are viewed unfavourably by the sanctioning nations.
The more that Russia can export, and the wealthier its population, the more revenue the Russian government can collect and spend on its military.

If the war on Ukraine means that the average Russian notices that prices are going up, so be it.
This is true but only to the extent it doesn't trigger personal fears of the ultimate decision makers. If they calculate they can keep sloughing it out for years, they'll do so against what we consider to be wise to protect themselves ultimately.
Hence my point though on assessing the specific sanctions. Do we know if these ones are having an observable impact? Are they ones being subverted by other means eg covert acquisition of oil and gas? There's a huge sequence of questions to dive into before we get to the point of classing this as for example "giving the banks a lifeline". There's a lot of questions about the mechanism for this alone that're unanswered - for example, it's possible in function they're only released with strict monitoring and slight control of the process (eg they prove relevant agreements and we pay out their money to the client).

The public as an audience is not anywhere near as relevant as in our nations when it comes to Russian decision making either. Views like this are what would be called divisive and destructive. That's no bueno when oriented to the public and one of the defining features of what would define "malign" being added to the reference of concerted influence attempts from state or non-state actors.
If the public is not a high gravity influencer towards the decision maker(s) also it largely doesn't provide much benefit from that specific angle and instead creates more harmful effect. Very few nations rest primarily on that for that reason too. Even China toys with it very strategically to degrade things they can explicitly extract constructive benefit from.
 
Again, I disagree to some extent.
For years western European nations, and to a lesser extent the USA, encouraged trade with Russia.
Several European nations became almost energy-dependent on Russian gas and oil (think Nord Stream).
We did "business as usual" for over 20 years- and the Russian government responded with supporting Khamenei in Iran, al-Assad in Syria, cyber attacks on western interests, murdering journalists and peaceful opposition figures within Russia, murdering Litvinenko with a radiological toxin in London, the use of a nerve agent in Salisbury, England.
They annexed Crimea.
And then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, unprovoked by any rational standards.
The Russian state has systematically abducted thousands of Ukrainian children. That is a war crime. It isn't the actions of one deranged soldier, but the actions of the Russian state.

If sanctions weren't working, the Russian government wouldn't spend so much effort trying to circumvent them, e.g. the Russian shadow fleet (Wikipedia).

The actions of the Russian state might not be the collective fault of the Russian people, but a prosperous civil economy means the state can collect more tax. And we know what the Russian state disproportionately spends that tax revenue on.
All political leaders take credit for a stable or growing economy and any increase in living standards; Putin is no exception.
Re-establishing business with Russia would reward Putin.
Incidentally, here are some of the items/ services that the European Union exempts from sanctions against Russia:
External Quote:

Humanitarian purposes and emergencies
Medical and pharmaceutical purposes
Temporary export for use by news media
Software updates [not military or security related]
Consumer communications devices
Personal goods used by natural persons travelling to Russia, not intended for sale
Cooperation between the EU, the Member States, and Russia towards purely civilian matters
International cooperation for space programmes
Matters of nuclear and maritime safety
Civilian telecommunications
Netherlands government website Business.gov.nl, "Which products are covered by the sanctions against Russia?"

Many western nations are increasing their defence spending, partly at the behest of President Trump who correctly pointed out that some NATO members were not spending even the 2% of GNP on defence that NATO required, but also because of Russia's belligerence in recent years.
This means those nations will have less to spend on healthcare, education, infrastructure or wherever else the funding is taken from.
So I have little sympathy for western businessmen who see opportunities for trade with Russia at the current time.

Opponents of the apartheid regime in South Africa (and before that, Ian Smith's Rhodesia) often stated that sanctions fall heaviest on the most vulnerable, and there is some truth in this. Authoritarian states with economic woes concentrate spending on their supporters. But it's hard to find opponents of that regime who opposed sanctions (including sporting boycotts).
 
I disagree to some extent. If the Russian government decides to do something, being able to afford (financially) to do it would seem important.

External sanctions are rarely as effective as their supporters would like them to be, but they do send a message that the policies of the sanctioned nation are viewed unfavourably by the sanctioning nations.
The more that Russia can export, and the wealthier its population, the more revenue the Russian government can collect and spend on its military.

If the war on Ukraine means that the average Russian notices that prices are going up, so be it.
Unfortunately, it steels their nationalism, which can have the effect of spraying soapy water onto their slippery slope. For example, with the importance of national defence (as in military role-playing) being introduced in primary schools, I'm certainly not prepared to predict that there won't be meat-waves of 17-year-olds, or younger, as time progresses. At this point, it seems timely to bring out /The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics/ and tally how many of the paths available have positive vs. negative outcomes for the various parties. Much of the game theory here is well studied, it's happened before.
 
I suggest you reread it, this time paying attention to the arguments it puts forward. There's a lot there, you seem to have skimmed it quite sloppily.
if my reading is sloppy then perhaps it would behoove you to quote me the sections you think i didn't pay attention too.
 
Again, I disagree to some extent.
For years western European nations, and to a lesser extent the USA, encouraged trade with Russia.
Several European nations became almost energy-dependent on Russian gas and oil (think Nord Stream).
We did "business as usual" for over 20 years- and the Russian government responded with supporting Khamenei in Iran, al-Assad in Syria, cyber attacks on western interests, murdering journalists and peaceful opposition figures within Russia, murdering Litvinenko with a radiological toxin in London, the use of a nerve agent in Salisbury, England.
They annexed Crimea.
And then launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, unprovoked by any rational standards.
The Russian state has systematically abducted thousands of Ukrainian children. That is a war crime. It isn't the actions of one deranged soldier, but the actions of the Russian state.

If sanctions weren't working, the Russian government wouldn't spend so much effort trying to circumvent them, e.g. the Russian shadow fleet (Wikipedia).

The actions of the Russian state might not be the collective fault of the Russian people, but a prosperous civil economy means the state can collect more tax. And we know what the Russian state disproportionately spends that tax revenue on.
All political leaders take credit for a stable or growing economy and any increase in living standards; Putin is no exception.
Re-establishing business with Russia would reward Putin.
Incidentally, here are some of the items/ services that the European Union exempts from sanctions against Russia:
External Quote:

Humanitarian purposes and emergencies
Medical and pharmaceutical purposes
Temporary export for use by news media
Software updates [not military or security related]
Consumer communications devices
Personal goods used by natural persons travelling to Russia, not intended for sale
Cooperation between the EU, the Member States, and Russia towards purely civilian matters
International cooperation for space programmes
Matters of nuclear and maritime safety
Civilian telecommunications
Netherlands government website Business.gov.nl, "Which products are covered by the sanctions against Russia?"

Many western nations are increasing their defence spending, partly at the behest of President Trump who correctly pointed out that some NATO members were not spending even the 2% of GNP on defence that NATO required, but also because of Russia's belligerence in recent years.
This means those nations will have less to spend on healthcare, education, infrastructure or wherever else the funding is taken from.
So I have little sympathy for western businessmen who see opportunities for trade with Russia at the current time.

Opponents of the apartheid regime in South Africa (and before that, Ian Smith's Rhodesia) often stated that sanctions fall heaviest on the most vulnerable, and there is some truth in this. Authoritarian states with economic woes concentrate spending on their supporters. But it's hard to find opponents of that regime who opposed sanctions (including sporting boycotts).
The one thing I would note here is a large part of this rests on the adversaries, in this case Russia's decision making. No hate but unfortunately the same analytical error is being presented here in projecting our own decision making instead of recognizing theirs.
I did not hate on sanctions overall, I raised the point of having to assess if specific sanctions have higher gravity impact on the conduct of war before we pre-emptively make claims about it being some secret plot to give Putin an out, rather than say a more strategically concerted move loosening sanctions that are not having a high gravity impact and instead creating negative effects towards deterrence or compellence - something we need much more information to claim (some of which would already be public, some not). Contrary to popular discussions, Trump has a consistent decision making pattern in this regard that does lead towards sanctions and other economic measures being seen through the former lens. Nor does that make Trump some mega-planner either it'd largely be the same people that were telling the prior Presidents the same thing just didn't get as much attention, plus whatever new hires they've brought around - nor does it inherently mean they'll work how they see it either.
 
if my reading is sloppy then perhaps it would behoove you to quote me the sections you think i didn't pay attention too.
It's a dense article with pretty much no filler, so that would be pretty much the whole article, and thus not covered by fair use.
 
Apropos of very little, just another reading from the local barometer - this was less than 400m from my flat:
External Quote:
An arson attack on a Ukrainian restaurant in Estonia's capital, Tallinn, was an influence operation ordered by Russian intelligence and carried out by two Moldovan citizens, a court heard on Wednesday.

The incident occurred at the Slava Ukraina restaurant in Tallinn's Telliskivi district on January 31. At the time, owner Mart Luik told ERR that camera footage clearly showed it was a deliberate act: "It was arson, they smashed the windows."
https://news.err.ee/1609735683/arso...nt-in-estonia-ordered-by-russian-intelligence

Everyone knew it was at the behest of the GRU when it happened (just like the trashing of several cars - one even closer to my flat than the above restaurant - a year earlier: https://news.err.ee/1609258853/iss-russian-special-services-behind-attack-on-estonian-minister-s-car ), but at least we now have the formal record of that.

What worries me most is that we are abutting neighbours of the local Ukrainian Orthodox Church and Cultural Centre, and that could easily be another one of their targets, in particular as the priests have collected donations and sourced medevac vehicles and other humanitarian aid to take down to Ukraine.
 
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Not directly on-topic, just clarifying an earlier error of mine;
Opponents of the apartheid regime in South Africa... often stated that sanctions fall heaviest on the most vulnerable, and there is some truth in this. Authoritarian states with economic woes concentrate spending on their supporters. But it's hard to find opponents of that regime who opposed sanctions
should have read "Opponents of sanctions against the apartheid regime..."; apologies for any confusion.
 
Article:
Russian forces are using infiltration tactics in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast similar to those they used near Dobropillya (northwest of Pokrovsk) in early August 2025. Trehubov reported that Russian forces are operating in small groups of five servicemembers, who infiltrate behind Ukrainian lines, wait and accumulate, and then attack in different directions simultaneously.[5] Trehubov specifically noted that Russian tactics in Zaporizske and Novoheorhiivka are similar to those that Russian forces employed near Dobropillya, and ISW has observed reports that Russian forces have been increasingly adopting these tactics throughout the frontline.[6] Russian forces recently infiltrated east and northeast of Dobropillya but have been unsuccessful in establishing enduring positions and exploiting the penetration thus far.[7] Such infiltration tactics also appear to be vulnerable to well-organized Ukrainian counterattacks.[8] ISW's Assessed Russian Advances map layer notably only shows the Russian Forward Line of Own Troops (FLOT) and does not differentiate between enduring Russian positions and limited infiltration missions.[9] Russian forces are likely using infiltration tactics that do not automatically result in enduring positions, and Russian actors often leverage maps that attempt to show these movements to exaggerate the presence of meaningful Russian activity on the battlefield.
 
I'm guessing that's a deflating decoy?

Reminds me of this New York Times piece the other week about both Russia and Ukraine using apps to recruit and pay teenagers to commit acts of vandalism/sabotage/espionage in the other country, such as this lead example where the kids apparently thought they were just helping with insurance fraud:
At dawn on May 8, 2023, a 17-year-old Russian teenager named Pavel Solovyov climbed through a hole in the fence of an aircraft plant in Novosibirsk, Russia. He and two friends were looking for a warplane that could be set on fire. An anonymous Telegram account had promised them one million rubles, around $12,500, to do so — a surreal amount of money for the boys.
A 16-year-old fruitlessly tried to set fire to a bomber at a military airfield near Chelyabinsk. Two boys from Omsk succeeded where he couldn't and set aflame a helicopter using a Molotov cocktail.
 
I'm guessing that's a deflating decoy?
Bien sûr.
External Quote:
... molotov cocktail...
If you ever want some insight into how brutally dry and dark the Finnish sense of humour is (I lived there for a decade before I moved here, and I still have a great affinity for Finland and the Finns), the etymology of that term is a perfect example:
External Quote:
The name's origin came from the propaganda Molotov produced during the Winter War, mainly his declaration on Soviet state radio that incendiary bombing missions over Finland were actually "airborne humanitarian food deliveries" for their "starving" neighbours. As a result, the Finns sarcastically dubbed the Soviet incendiary cluster bombs "Molotov bread baskets" (Finnish: Molotovin leipäkori) in reference to Molotov's propaganda broadcasts. When the hand-held bottle firebomb was developed to attack and destroy Soviet tanks, the Finns called it the "Molotov cocktail", as "a drink to go with his food parcels".
-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov_cocktail#Etymology
 
Just another local trivium, but if the Russians can waste their time on this, so can I:

The museum director at the town closest to the Russian border has (previously) been found guilty and (now) finally sentenced, both in absentia, for "rehabilitation of Nazism and public dissemination of knowingly false information about the Russian Armed Forces".

Her actual crime? Hanging stuff like this on the museum wall, facing Russia over the river that separates us:
2854925h82e8t24.jpg

img link: https://s.err.ee/photo/crop/2025/05/09/2854925h82e8t24.jpg
via: https://news.err.ee/1609811514/esto...-years-in-prison-in-absentia-by-russian-court
External Quote:
The Russian authorities take issue with Narva Museum's anti-propaganda initiatives on May 9, when Russia celebrates "Victory Day" to commemorate World War II. Since 2023, the Russian authorities in the border city of Ivangorod have set up screens to project the Victory parade and patriotic pro-war songs to Russian-speaking residents across the river in Narva.

In response, Smorževskihh-Smirnova and her team have hung posters on the castle wall calling Putin a war criminal and making comparisons to Adolf Hitler.
...
"Today I found out from Estonian journalists that a Russian court has sentenced me – a citizen of the Republic of Estonia and the European Union – to 10 years in prison for my civic stance," Smorževskihh-Smirnova said.
...
This spring, Smorževskihh-Smirnova told ERR's Russian-language portal that she considers her place on the wanted list to be a badge of honor.
 
They are more alike than different in my opinion.
which is why europe should have forced Zelensky to take the [original mineral] deal, instead of celebrating zelenskys refusal. now they've got a bunch a little dogs alone to take on a rabid pitbull, when they had their own rabid pitbull on their side they decided to sideline. i mean little dogs can certainly be vicious, but... well, i guess we'll see how it all works out.
 
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which is why europe should have forced Zelensky to take the deal, instead of celebrating zelenskys refusal. now they've got a bunch a little dogs alone to take on a rabid pitbull, when they had their own rabid pitbull on their side they decided to sideline. i mean little dogs can certainly be vicious, but... well, i guess we'll see how it all works out.
Because the Munich Agreement, AKA the Munich Betrayal - because there was already a preexisting non-agression treaty in place, worked out just fine, and brought a long-lasting peace for their time?
 
which is why europe should have forced Zelensky to take the deal, instead of celebrating zelenskys refusal. now they've got a bunch a little dogs alone to take on a rabid pitbull, when they had their own rabid pitbull on their side they decided to sideline. i mean little dogs can certainly be vicious, but... well, i guess we'll see how it all works out.
"The deal" was to hand over great chunks of the country to Putin because that's what he wanted when he invaded a sovereign country. He already seized Crimea a few years ago, and now he's back for more. You're saying, in effect, "Give the school bully your lunch money, because then he won't come back again tomorrow." That has never worked. That would be like the USA being attacked, then the attacker says "I'll settle for just taking New England, New York, and Pennsylvania".
 
"The deal" was to hand over great chunks of the country
i meant the original mineral deal. obviously i would have negotiated it a bit but they ended up making all the assets hypothetical/imaginary. Doesnt matter, at least once this war is over theyll have some protection from future wars maybe. edit: well i guess it will also depend on how bad the big dog we elect before the time of the next threat wants his bone (if a bone ever materializes).
 
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which is why europe should have forced Zelensky...
How? By shooting themselves in the feet?

to take the [original mineral] deal
Do you remember how it went for, well, pretty much everybody who ever made a deal with the idiot?

, instead of celebrating zelenskys refusal.
Can you show us who celebrated when and where?

...when they had their own rabid pitbull on their side...
What does a clever, responsible person do with any rabid dog on their side?

... well, i guess we'll see how it all works out.
You don't say?!
Unfortunately, or fortunately, we'll never see how it would work out had they made a spurious deal with a rabid dog.
 
How? By shooting themselves in the feet?
i dont know what this means
Do you remember how it went for, well, pretty much everybody who ever made a deal with the idiot?
everybody? no
Can you show us who celebrated when and where?
after the "you dont have the cards" fiasco.
What does a clever, responsible person do with any rabid dog on their side?
youre not suggesting assassinating our president are you?

Unfortunately, or fortunately, we'll never see how it would work out had they made a spurious deal with a rabid dog.
true.
 
i'm not sure people can pat themselves on the back for being polite, if they are only polite to people they like (and yes im referring to the UFO guys too that are demeaned)
Let's change that to a more accurate statement: "...polite to people who are polite to them." I can disagree with people without disliking them, if they are polite (to me, and to others) in return, but if they are rude, it makes them a lot easier to dislike.
 
i meant the original mineral deal.
If you have to explain what you meant by a short simple sentence, and that explanation contains elements that aren't even hinted at in that prior sentence, then perhaps you should have put more effort into writing that short simple sentence in the first place. I can cope with the e e cummings styling, but at least show some effort.
 
i dont know what this means
Ukraine is Europe's best ally: They are fighting Russia for us. Forcing them to abandon the fight and give up territory means Russia can direct its resources at any time anywhere it chooses. That's a loss for Europe.

everybody? no
You are surely capable of parsing hyperbole and detecting the actual message. Your reply tells me you have no issue with the claim that Trump is an exceptionally untrustworthy partner known for screwing many of the people he made deals with.

after the "you dont have the cards" fiasco.
That's doubling down on the claim, not a response to the question I asked: Can you show us who celebrated "zelenskys refusal" when and where?

youre not suggesting assassinating our president are you?
No, silly. Using violence is very much a far-right fetish.
You are certainly able to parse parables. You are certainly intelligent enough that you cannot translate actions in parables 1:1 to actions in real life.
I am suggestring getting rid of the rabid pitpul, keep him at a safe distance, muzzle him, put a strong leash on him, lock him up safely - and not enter into deals with him. He WILL bite you if you are foolish enough to let him keep his range, teeth and freedom to move.

Trivially so.
 
i know that's the talking point, but sounds a bit cruel to my american ear. (it sounds cruel when Lindsay Graham et al say it too..so im not picking on europe proper only).
It is cruel.
I don't mind picking on Europe proper and Lindsay Graham.

I think NATO should have been fighting on Ukraine's side from almost as soon as Russia had invaded. Bomb the hell out of their rear, eliminate air defenses, cut supplies, enable Ukraine to take tens of thousands of PoW. Absolutely humiliate Putin. (And show Xi that there exists hard resolve)

I already thought in 2014 that Obama ought to have sunk the entire Russian Black Sea fleat, with a warning that if, Putin does anything funny (like think of Crimea even one more day), the Balric fleet would be next. You know, humiliate Putin.

Of course I understand that no democratic politician is ever going to risk such an escalation, seeing that some retaliation (a large rocket on Berlin, even if only with conventional explosives, would definitely help shake up public opinion) would be almost inevitable.

NATO would have had international law firmly on their side: the UN Charter explicitly allows any contries to rush to the aid of any other that gets invaded by another. Being formally member of a treaty that has an Article 5 prior to outbreak of hostilities is not required to recieve and give such military help.

Now today, we are facing a much larger Russian army supported by an ecnomy in 10% war mode, positioned in much more fortified lines. The only way this war will end is when millions starve to death and there is no more energy left to keep fighting.
THAT is cruel.
 
It is cruel.
I don't mind picking on Europe proper and Lindsay Graham.

I think NATO should have been fighting on Ukraine's side from almost as soon as Russia had invaded. Bomb the hell out of their rear, eliminate air defenses, cut supplies, enable Ukraine to take tens of thousands of PoW. Absolutely humiliate Putin. (And show Xi that there exists hard resolve)

I already thought in 2014 that Obama ought to have sunk the entire Russian Black Sea fleat, with a warning that if, Putin does anything funny (like think of Crimea even one more day), the Balric fleet would be next. You know, humiliate Putin.

Of course I understand that no democratic politician is ever going to risk such an escalation, seeing that some retaliation (a large rocket on Berlin, even if only with conventional explosives, would definitely help shake up public opinion) would be almost inevitable.

NATO would have had international law firmly on their side: the UN Charter explicitly allows any contries to rush to the aid of any other that gets invaded by another. Being formally member of a treaty that has an Article 5 prior to outbreak of hostilities is not required to recieve and give such military help.

Now today, we are facing a much larger Russian army supported by an ecnomy in 10% war mode, positioned in much more fortified lines. The only way this war will end is when millions starve to death and there is no more energy left to keep fighting.
THAT is cruel.
Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea revealed two things:
  1. With the end of the Cold War, European NATO had already cashed it's Peace Dividend check with shrinking militaries and more generals and HQ than actual deployable combat forces.
  2. Western leaders had bought into the Sochi Olympics version of Putin who used that to achieve operational and strategic surprise with his invasion of Crimea by way of Little Green Men delivered by ordinary passenger rail service.
The fact that most citizens couldn't find Crimea on a map allowed the political class to respond with pro forma sanctions, maintain the flow of cheap Russian oil and gas, and still not address military preparedness.

The 2022 invasion resulted from the lackluster response to 2014 at all levels of Western government. There is no reason to believe that giving Putin what he wants now will bring any lasting peace. His quarter century long track record is that he will always come back for more.
 
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