Is this a Chinese spy balloon?

I suggest we wait to see just what transmissions the US recorded before making any claims about what the balloons were doing. The sad thing is that the balloon was shot down with a Sidewinder missile. It seems to have hit the payload. Video seems to say that is the case. So, what we have is nothing.

Hysteria prevails at all levels of the government. "We have to show that they can't do this to us."

I would hope that the Chinese will show knowledgeable people in the US an identical payload. Not likely but probably the only way to calm the government down. I strongly vote for weather or other research. China may be spying on the Us but clearly not with highly visible balloons drifting in the stratosphere.

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Pretty straightforward how we'd know. There were SIGINT aircraft (Rivet Joints) reported over the Midwest the past couple days. If the thing was transmitting, they'd have detected/recorded/analyzed whatever signals it was sending. Good chance we were jamming transmissions if they were providing actionable intel to the PRC.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104608/rc-135vw-rivet-joint/
Don't leave out SIGINT at ground level. In 1955 my destroyer was outfitted with a complete ECM system during an overhaul at Long Beach Naval Shipyard. As electronics officer that system belonged to me. It included antennas, receivers, and recording equipment. We recorded data but could only forward it to some other entity. I do not know if such systems are still on ships but it clearly demonstrates the concerns back then.
 
I suggest we wait to see just what transmissions the US recorded before making any claims about what the balloons were doing. The sad thing is that the balloon was shot down with a Sidewinder missile. It seems to have hit the payload. Video seems to say that is the case. So, what we have is nothing.

Hysteria prevails at all levels of the government. "We have to show that they can't do this to us."

I would hope that the Chinese will show knowledgeable people in the US an identical payload. Not likely but probably the only way to calm the government down. I strongly vote for weather or other research. China may be spying on the Us but clearly not with highly visible balloons drifting in the stratosphere.

I realize that opinions are not wanted nor allowed on this forum but I have to try. Take this post down if it once more falls outside the posting guidelines.
Source please.
 
Source please.
Thanks for calling my attention to the source omission.

So sorry. I can't provide a written source. I was relying on reports I saw on three different TV Channels. Maybe they are all wrong and it wasn't a sidewinder. Maybe it wasn't even shot down, TV reports can be wrong.

Please be more specific about what element requires a source and I will respond as best I can.
 
"Senior U.S. military and defense officials shared the following information about the shootdown in a subsequent press briefing on Saturday afternoon:
  • An F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base fired a single AIM-9X Sidewinder missile that downed the balloon from an altitude of 58,000 feet. The balloon was as high as 65,000 feet."

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...hinese-spy-balloon-off-carolinas-with-missile
Thanks Rat. Not much better source than Rogoway and the guys at Warzone. So we used a missile costing probably close to $500K to take out a pre-WW1 technology, the balloon.
 
It seems to have hit the payload. Video seems to say that is the case. So, what we have is nothing.
I don't see that in video. what makes you think the payload was hit. (I imagine we have nothing anyway because a heavy object falling from 60k would likely smash to bits...no?
 
So we used a missile costing probably close to $500K to take out a pre-WW1 technology, the balloon.
think of it as a test experiment...to determine the debris field area for when we want to shoot one down earlier over land.
 
I don't see that in video. what makes you think the payload was hit. (I imagine we have nothing anyway because a heavy object falling from 60k would likely smash to bits...no?
Have another look at the video, maybe one from a different source. I just had another look and I saw a clear hit on the payload. Also look at all the flashing/fluttering pieces. Could they be solar cell pieces?
Text above added by edit.
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Bit's yes but from the hit, not from the fall. Would you agree that the balloon came down much like an unloaded or lightly loaded parachute?

Another thing, if you were a heat-seeking sidewinder would you head for the white balloon or the dark and warmer solar arrays?

What else would account for a 7 mile long debris field?

I know opinions are a nono here but i can't think of another way to support my payload hit belief.
 
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Some interesting details in this article - -

"U.S. officials say there is likely a third such balloon conducting surveillance in another part of the world."

"The balloons are part of an extensive Chinese military surveillance program that has been running for years, involving a Chinese company supplying the technology to the People’s Liberation Army, said two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."

"The airship contains “some sophisticated communications gear” and had been lingering over strategic sites, said one official. Earlier this week it was spotted loitering over Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, home to several nuclear missile silos. “But what it actually does we don’t know.”

I'm not sure that the weather balloon theory adds up at the moment.

https://webcache.googleusercontent....-balloon-shoot-down/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
It seems likely to me that it is a Spy Balloon.

Something to consider when asking, "What sense does it make"? It might make little to no sense in a purely military or technical sense. It may be the pet project of an influential person. Or it may be a purely make-work project that has grown organically over the years from bureaucratic empire building.


Empire building is the pursuit to enlarge the size, scope, and influence of an individual or organization's power with little or no utility other than power for its own sake.

Not mutually exclusive things of course.

Empire Building happens anywhere, from within families to governments. It reaches its pinnacle in authoritarian governments with a Strongman leader. And China has such a government. In Nazi Germany for instance there were numerous more or less rouge wonder weapon programs that were trying to catch the attention of Hitler and please his irrational whims. The purpose was not to win the war but to enlarge the size and influence of the organization. With that of course comes all the biases, daydreams and rationalizations of pet projects or make-work projects.
 
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It seem likely to me that it is a Spy Balloon.

Something to consider when asking, "What sense does it make"? It might make little to no sense in a purely military or technical sense. But let's not forget about Empire Building.

Empire building is the pursuit to enlarge the size, scope, and influence of an individual or organization's power with little or no utility other than power for its own sake.

This happens anywhere, from within families to governments. It reaches its pinnacle in authoritarian governments with a Strongman leader. And China has such a government. In Nazi Germany for instance there were numerous more or less rouge wonder weapon programs that were trying to catch the attention of Hitler and please his irrational whims. The purpose was not to win the war but to enlarge the size and influence of the organization. With that of course comes all the biases, daydreams and rationalizations of pet projects.
Have US officials ever been wrong? Should we hold judgement until the government reports details on the data they downloaded?
 
Earlier this week it was spotted loitering over Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, home to several nuclear missile silos.
On the face of it, balloons are physically incapable of 'loitering'. They go where the wind takes them.

This particular balloon does seem to have had some rotating parts on its 'payload' which have been described as propellers (see the video linked at #10 for a fairly clear view of them). I speculated in an earlier comment (#30) on ways in which the wind itself might generate power from these rotating parts used as turbines, but in that case they could not simultaneously be used as propellers. To steer or propel the balloon they would need a separate power source, such as batteries, solar panels (thought to be included in the payload), or even radioactive isotopes (as used in some satellites before people got too anxious about radiation). But the 'propellers' themselves seem too small, and in the video are rotating too slowly, to have much influence on the motion of such a large spherical balloon exposed to the wind. (Airships like the Zeppelin do not disprove this, as they have powerful engines and a more aerodynamic shape.) I suspect that the appearance of 'loitering' is just an illusion due to the slow movement and high altitude of the balloon. High clouds like cirrus, at a similar altitude or lower, might also seem to be static when viewed from the ground.
 
Don't leave out SIGINT at ground level. In 1955 my destroyer was outfitted with a complete ECM system during an overhaul at Long Beach Naval Shipyard. As electronics officer that system belonged to me. It included antennas, receivers, and recording equipment. We recorded data but could only forward it to some other entity. I do not know if such systems are still on ships but it clearly demonstrates the concerns back then.

Senior defense official: US collected intelligence on Chinese balloon as it flew over the the US this week​

2 hours ago
AP
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senior defense official: US collected intelligence on Chinese balloon as it flew over the the US this week.
 

Senior defense official: US collected intelligence on Chinese balloon as it flew over the the US this week​

2 hours ago
AP
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senior defense official: US collected intelligence on Chinese balloon as it flew over the the US this week.
Link please.
 
Have another look at the video, maybe one from a different source. I just had another look and I saw a clear hit on the payload. Also look at all the flashing/fluttering pieces
you would have to screen shot the video and use arrows to point to what you are looking at. maybe you are seeing pieces of the missile glittering? you would have to tell me what source you are looking at (or link to it)...people all up the coast were filming from different angles.

(if they didnt hit the balloon then why did the balloon pop?)


you might be right looks like the explosion is beneath the balloon
2-4-2023 7-25-00 PM.jpg

Source: https://youtu.be/4hHkFSf9ntQ?t=25
 
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Have another look at the video, maybe one from a different source. I just had another look and I saw a clear hit on the payload. Also look at all the flashing/fluttering pieces. Could they be solar cell pieces?
Text above added by edit.
========================
Bit's yes but from the hit, not from the fall. Would you agree that the balloon came down much like an unloaded or lightly loaded parachute?

Another thing, if you were a heat-seeking sidewinder would you head for the white balloon or the dark and warmer solar arrays?

What else would account for a 7 mile long debris field?

I know opinions are a nono here but i can't think of another way to support my payload hit belief.
Something to consider....

The Sidewinder uses an annular blast fragmentation warhead. An explosive force blows metal fragments outward in all directions, in an annular, or ring-shaped, pattern. Shrapnel, in other words.
 
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you would have to screen shot the video and use arrows to point to what you are looking at. maybe you are seeing pieces of the missile glittering? you would have to tell me what source you are looking at (or link to it)...people all up the coast were filming from different angles.

(if they didnt hit the balloon then why did the balloon pop?)


you might be right looks like the explosion is beneath the balloon
2-4-2023 7-25-00 PM.jpg

Source: https://youtu.be/4hHkFSf9ntQ?t=25

Like most AAMs, the Sidewinder detonates with a proximity fuse, it doesn't have to physically strike its target. The warhead is a fragmentation munition. Between the blast effect and the fragments, it shredded the envelope, suspended array, and apparently the cable holding it.
 
Have US officials ever been wrong? Should we hold judgement until the government reports details on the data they downloaded?
If it was a spy balloon (as I have come to believe) I'd doubt we'd ever see data downloaded therefrom. That would seem to be something that would be secret.
 
...missile. It seems to have hit the payload. Video seems to say that is the case. So, what we have is nothing.
This image seems to suggest the payload fell free largely intact.

1675552316821318.png
Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/u-s-prepares-to-shoot-down-chinese-balloon-over-atlantic-ocean
The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina, U.S. February 4, 2023. Photo by Randall Hill/Reuters.

Edited, found a usable source beyond "people posting pic on social media."
 
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I have that photo. Also the video shows shiny flakes falling down.

Would you deny that the shiny flakes falling down are parts of the solar panels? If not, what are they? Also, how does a miss create a debris field 7 miles long? (I think is the number I heard)

I have already commented about the heat seeking missile preferring the dark and hot solar panels over the much-less heated white balloon. Based on prior experience the sidewinder likes warmer things.

I am seriously bothered by the behavior of the government because the balloon was clearly a weather balloon, not a spy balloon. That will be confirmed when the government releases the downloads they have from the balloon system. Trouble is on the way!
 
If it was a spy balloon (as I have come to believe) I'd doubt we'd ever see data downloaded therefrom. That would seem to be something that would be secret.
It wouldn't be "secret" in itself but the government may decide to not release what they have because it would contain scientific data and no "spy" information. How embarrassing!
 
I am seriously bothered by the behavior of the government because the balloon was clearly a weather balloon, not a spy balloon. That will be confirmed when the government releases the downloads they have from the balloon system. Trouble is on the way!
The government behavior to shoot it down is appropriate no matter what the balloon was doing. An out-of-control balloon is a flight safety hazard and the payload may come down at an unpredictable time and location.

If the balloon was spying it must have had antennas capable to pick up the directional high frequencies used for military comm links. With high resolution images these antennas should be recognizable. Anyhow, the payload is not as interesting as the data it was transmitting.
 
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[Irony] I suggest next time, the Chinese government uses their tictac balloon. The one capable of outclimbing a jet and leaving the area within a few seconds... [/Irony]
 
I am seriously bothered by the behavior of the government because the balloon was clearly a weather balloon, not a spy balloon. That will be confirmed when the government releases the downloads they have from the balloon system. Trouble is on the way!
It's not "clearly" anything. We're not in the business of fortune-telling, so let's wait until we have some facts before we make declarations. One might note that if it were as benign as a weather balloon, it's surprising that the Chinese didn't see fit to mention its presence to authorities in the several countries over which it passed.

Bear in mind that the government may choose to keep those facts restricted to just a few of their people, not the general public. And "trouble" is already here, as public media have already decided to make political hay out of this no matter what actions were or were not taken.
 


My naïve speculation: After the annular blast fragmentation warhead burst, the body of the missile was still largely intact. It looks as though the largely intact body of the missile went through the base of the balloon, while at least some of the shrapnel went through the body of the balloon, higher up. I wonder what the diameter of the ring of shrapnel was at that time...

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There's not enough resolution here to really tell what, if anything, hit the array.

Afterward the array is seen falling at least largely intact. There are also some smaller twinkling pieces that appear to be falling faster than other pieces. It's tempting to think those are falling faster because they are denser material than shreds from the fabric of the balloon, and therefore are pieces broken off from the denser array.

But what if at least some of the shreds of fabric are rising in the turbulent air? So are we misinterpreting the apparent relative downward speeds of all the shreds? What if we are misinterpreting the actual 3D nature of the 2D image?

Even if they are denser pieces, they may or may not be pieces from the array. Couldn't they be pieces from the structure at the base of the balloon?

1675552316821318.png


The array is dropping faster than everything else, which is to be expected. Maybe those denser pieces are fluttering? But later the main part of the balloon is catching up to and passing those "denser pieces." It's ambiguous what those pieces are. Visually they are identical to the other twinkling specks which we suspect must be shreds of the balloon fabric.

106.png

107.png


What was the terminal velocity of the array? It's got a lot of surface area, so plenty of drag. I think there's a good chance that there will be plenty of intact pieces even after impact.

The debris field is mostly widely scattered shreds of balloon fabric.
 
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Would you deny that the shiny flakes falling down are parts of the solar panels?
I am not in a position to confirm nor deny. When I first watched the videos as they were played almost-live on the news, I had assumed that the glitter was indeed the solar panels. If so, they may have torn loose in the wind as the payload fell. Or they may be something else. All I know for reasonably sure is that the payload fell free initially largely intact, as shown in the photo.

If not, what are they?
Discussion of the shrapnel produced by the missile above offers one possibility. There might have been shiny bits inside or part of the envelope if the balloon. Or, possibly, wind sheared off the solar panels as they fell. Whatever they are, they are not evidence of the missile destroying the payload since we have an image if the substantially intact payload falling free after the missile strike.

Also, how does a miss create a debris field 7 miles long? (I think is the number I heard)
Dunno. We can certainly try to figure that out if we get beyond the "I think I heard" stage.

I have already commented about the heat seeking missile preferring the dark and hot solar panels over the much-less heated white balloon. Based on prior experience the sidewinder likes warmer things.
Based on a pretty clear photo of THIS event, that does not appear to have been what happened.

I am seriously bothered by the behavior of the government because the balloon was clearly a weather balloon, not a spy balloon.
That appears to be a statement of your personal incredulity. To which you are entitled -- but it is not evidence of anything.

That will be confirmed when the government releases the downloads they have from the balloon system. Trouble is on the way!
Based on evidence that neither you nor I have seen (unless there have been revelations overnight that I have not yet seen). For a variety reasons, i doubt that we'll ever see data downloads from the balloon publicly released. If that happens, we can discuss it then
 
I am not in a position to confirm nor deny. When I first watched the videos as they were played almost-live on the news, I had assumed that the glitter was indeed the solar panels. If so, they may have torn loose in the wind as the payload fell. Or they may be something else. All I know for reasonably sure is that the payload fell free initially largely intact, as shown in the photo.


Discussion of the shrapnel produced by the missile above offers one possibility. There might have been shiny bits inside or part of the envelope if the balloon. Or, possibly, wind sheared off the solar panels as they fell. Whatever they are, they are not evidence of the missile destroying the payload since we have an image if the substantially intact payload falling free after the missile strike.


Dunno. We can certainly try to figure that out if we get beyond the "I think I heard" stage.


Based on a pretty clear photo of THIS event, that does not appear to have been what happened.


That appears to be a statement of your personal incredulity. To which you are entitled -- but it is not evidence of anything.


Based on evidence that neither you nor I have seen (unless there have been revelations overnight that I have not yet seen). For a variety reasons, i doubt that we'll ever see data downloads from the balloon publicly released. If that happens, we can discuss it then
Please don't make any uninformed judgements about what resources I have. Just wait a while until the facts replace the hysteria. I do have to make one comment . . . we will soon know the condition of the debris. Also I seriously doubt that the balloon body released any shiny particles. Take this as a friendly comment and not criticism of your beliefs.
 
"I seriously doubt that the balloon body released any shiny particles."

Not shiny particles. Shreds of the fabric of the balloon. The shreds are white. As they flutter, they change shape and catch more or less of the sunlight. These are low resolution images. Because of these two factors, the shreds appear to twinkle.

Also, I wonder if the inside surface of the of the fabric may have been aluminized Mylar (metalized BOPET).
 
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Please recheck your sources.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-us-is-going-take-care-of-chinese-balloon-2023-02-04/
One U.S. military official said the debris field was spread out over seven miles (11 km) of ocean, and multiple U.S. military vessels were on site.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023...ll-take-care-of-suspected-chinese-spy-balloon
Reuters quoted a US military official as saying that the debris field was spread out over 11km (seven miles) of ocean and that multiple military vessels were on site.

A paraphrase rather than a quotation. Other News Outlets appear to be making their own interpretations of the paraphrase from Reuters.

But this clearly means seven square miles. Obviously widely scattered debris. As shreds of the balloon fall, they flutter and spread out. One here, another way over there. If you draw a perimeter around the most widely scattered bits, the perimeter encloses an area of seven square miles. It doesn't mean a carpet of debris. There wasn't that much mass in the balloon or in the array.

What would a seven mile long debris field look like? A narrow line of debris seven miles long?

Or did the "military official" mean an area 7 miles by 7 miles? That would be 49 square miles. That doesn't seem credible.

Edit: A circle with a diameter of 7 miles would enclose 38 square miles, and I wonder now if this was the perimeter of the area that was cordoned off before the balloon was shot down. I mean how could they know, so quickly, where every little shred or piece fell ? There is ambiguity here.

The only somewhat precise numbers I can find:
https://www.space.com/chinese-spy-balloon-destroyed-f-22-jet
The remains of the airship fell about 6 miles (10 kilometers) off the South Carolina coast, into water about 47 feet (14 m) deep.

That argues for a relatively small area. So I'll leave off agonizing over this detail.
 
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Please don't make any uninformed judgements about what resources I have. Just wait a while until the facts replace the hysteria
That will be confirmed when the government releases the downloads they have from the balloon system.

If you did actually work with missiles and have any military knowledge, you would know that we will never see any of that data. It's odd that you keep making such comments.

If you are a China plant, and have documentation that it is indeed a weather balloon, then feel free to share those documents.
 
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