Is this a Chinese spy balloon?

Which is why I said "and/or."
if it is the size of "3 city buses" then you'd have to be super careful where you shoot it down too. i wonder what the landing radius would have to be if you shot something like that down. i guess it would depend how heavy that dangly apparatus is.
 
Apparently "just shooting it down" might be more problematic than it seems:

Almost 25 years ago, a large runaway weather balloon proved to be quite challenge a for a pair of fighter jets trying to shoot it down, staying in the air even after more than 1,000 rounds were fired at it.


Two Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 fighter aircraft spotted the balloon over Newfoundland and fired more than 1,000 rounds at it. The AP reported that the jets, Canadian variants of the American F/A-18 Hornet, hit the balloon, but rather than popping or exploding and crashing to the earth, it slowly began leaking helium. The big balloon was still in the air.
Content from External Source
A Canadian military spokesperson, a lieutenant named Steve Wills, told BBC that it was difficult to target the balloon, even though it was about the size of a 25-story building, and that the failure to take it out wasn't embarrassing.


"With something like this, which is stationary in the air when the CF-18s are flying very, very fast, it is difficult to shoot it," Wills said.

The CF-18s were reportedly equipped with air-to-air missiles, but Canadian Major Roland Lavoie told AP the pilots refrained from using them.
Content from External Source
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...s-at-it-and-couldnt-bring-it-down/ar-AA1753aW
 
Apparently "just shooting it down" might be more problematic than it seems:

Almost 25 years ago, a large runaway weather balloon proved to be quite challenge a for a pair of fighter jets trying to shoot it down, staying in the air even after more than 1,000 rounds were fired at it.


Two Royal Canadian Air Force CF-18 fighter aircraft spotted the balloon over Newfoundland and fired more than 1,000 rounds at it. The AP reported that the jets, Canadian variants of the American F/A-18 Hornet, hit the balloon, but rather than popping or exploding and crashing to the earth, it slowly began leaking helium. The big balloon was still in the air.
Content from External Source
A Canadian military spokesperson, a lieutenant named Steve Wills, told BBC that it was difficult to target the balloon, even though it was about the size of a 25-story building, and that the failure to take it out wasn't embarrassing.


"With something like this, which is stationary in the air when the CF-18s are flying very, very fast, it is difficult to shoot it," Wills said.

The CF-18s were reportedly equipped with air-to-air missiles, but Canadian Major Roland Lavoie told AP the pilots refrained from using them.
Content from External Source
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...s-at-it-and-couldnt-bring-it-down/ar-AA1753aW
A 250 ft diameter weather balloon? That's 5 times taller than the five story balloons in the Macy's parade. I get it, they expand with altitude, but that's one big ass balloon.

Not surprising the Canadians had trouble taking down that balloon, there were similar stories of difficulty in shooting down wayward barrage balloons in WWII. They don't pop like a kid's balloon.
 
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I think the part that's fishy about this balloon is that it should've been tracked by the civil aviation authorities, i.e. China should've "handed it off" to Japan when it left their airspace. If this did happen (I don't know), the balloon is probably harmless, and it might've simply drifted off the radar over the ocean.
 
Unless the Chinese are spying on Costa Rica and the Andaman Islands as well as the US and Japan, that is al starting to feel more Weather Balloony than Espionage Balloony to me
 
Here is a picture of the balloon today over Illinois. Notice that there is indeed string/rope/wire hanging off the side of this balloon as well.

 
I think the part that's fishy about this balloon is that it should've been tracked by the civil aviation authorities, i.e. China should've "handed it off" to Japan when it left their airspace. If this did happen (I don't know), the balloon is probably harmless, and it might've simply drifted off the radar over the ocean.

One would think so, but from the same article I posted above, this guy says they may be hard to detect:

According to a 2009 research paper on stratospheric airships by Kevin Massie, a major in the U.S. Air Force, despite their large size they are "difficult to detect and if hit, do not immediately descend."

"Stratospheric airships are inherently stealthy. Because they contain inert gas and do not produce a significant amount of heat, [stratospheric airships] present a miniscule infrared signature at high altitude," he wrote.

"Because of their non-metallic structure and covering and a lack of rough edges, [stratospheric airships] also present a minimal radar return. Even with their immense size, [they] are also difficult to see optically at high altitude," Massie added.
Content from External Source
But then the following paragraph says the opposite:

However, the U.S.'s capability for detecting such objects may have improved in the past decade. And the balloon currently over the U.S. was spotted from a commercial airliner, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Rebecca Grant Ph.D., a national security analyst and aerospace expert at IRIS Independent Research, told Newsweek that tracking the balloon was "no problem," adding: "I expect they saw this on its way over across the Pacific, and it can be tracked internally by fighter radars, like the F-22s or F-15."

She noted: "This thing is enormous."
Content from External Source
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shooting-down-chinese-spy-balloon-a-lot-harder-than-it-seems

I would note that Ms. Grant seems to indicate that it's easy to track with F22/F15 fighter radars. That would assume it's already been located, and the Air Force/Navy could keep a steady stream of fighter jets in the air to track it across the Northern Pacific.
 
I think there are no optical telescopes on this one, but I could be wrong. Or do you think it is a kind of radar system?
Perhaps. But I was responding more to the implication that ballon-borne spying is obsolete in the era of orbital spy satellites.
 
I think the part that's fishy about this balloon is that it should've been tracked by the civil aviation authorities, i.e. China should've "handed it off" to Japan when it left their airspace. If this did happen (I don't know), the balloon is probably harmless, and it might've simply drifted off the radar over the ocean.
True, but don't forget Hanlan's razor. Although the incompetence, if stupidity's to strong a term, also seems to apply to the North Americans too - how come it was spotted in the Aleutians, and then in Montana, but nowhere in between. This seems to support the statement that it's not viewed as a threat, as they certainly aren't treating it as a threat.

Is anything known about what, if anything, it's transmitting - does it ping? - could consumer SDRs track it?
 
Perhaps. But I was responding more to the implication that ballon-borne spying is obsolete in the era of orbital spy satellites.
I strongly agree. If the Chinese wanted to carry out a spy mission they wouldn't have picked a large and visible vehicle.

One comment, the large balloon itself probably contributes a trivial amount to the overall radar cross section. I did an analysis for General Dynamics in the last century. We computed and then measured the cross section of some proposed short range pop-up surveillance devices. Peek and Lalo were the two devices. Maybe folks will remember those names.

JUST WATCHING THE NEWS . . .ONE CHANNEL IS ACTUALLY EXPRESSING SOME DOUBT THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A SPY MISSION.
 
I found another incident that seems very similar. The balloon machine in this image might be an early model since it its from 2019. Notably this balloon appears to have additional lines attached to the sides.

This balloon was seen over Kagoshima Prefecture on November 20, 2019. Maybe its not related.

1675454641786.png

https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/articles/-/310832?display=1
Looks like their ability to simplify ground handling eliminated the need to have those lines and they were able to shorten the distance from the balloon proper to the payload which is dominated by the solar panels. Our navy went through a similar evolution in the airship days.
 
Perhaps. But I was responding more to the implication that ballon-borne spying is obsolete in the era of orbital spy satellites.
one defense guy said also (big paraphrase) that you cant detect weapon signatures from orbit. orbits are also predictable (so enemies can hide stuff). etc.

we are building balloons too
Article:

Here’s Why China May Be Using Old-Fashioned Surveillance Technology When Satellites Exist​

....
Last May, Politico reported that the Pentagon spent around $3.8 million on balloon projects over the past two years and planned to spend more than $27 million on the inflatable tech in fiscal year 2023. The balloons, according to the report, will collect data and transmit information to aircraft and may eventually be used to scan for hypersonic weapons developed by China and Russia.
 
how come it was spotted in the Aleutians, and then in Montana, but nowhere in between.
what makes you think it wasn't spotted?

Article:
Published Feb. 3, 2023 8:43 p.m. EST

The suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that was found floating over sensitive military sites in the western United States had been tracked by Canada's government since last weekend as it passed through Canadians airspace, sources tell CTV News.

Canadian officials have not publicly stated whether the massive high-altitude balloon entered Canadian airspace. But sources told CTV News it had passed over the Canadian Arctic, Alberta and Saskatchewan before it was spotted over Montana on Thursday, as it flew over a nuclear launch site. Sources told CTV News it was tracked the entire time it was in Canadian airspace.

After being flagged by Norad, the joint U.S.-Canadian agency responsible for air defence in both nations, U.S. fighter jets investigated the balloon and determined it wasn't fitted with any weapons, but was equipped with high-resolutions cameras

...
A flight advisory was issued to pilots in Alberta and Saskatchewan in response.
 
I strongly agree. If the Chinese wanted to carry out a spy mission they wouldn't have picked a large and visible vehicle.

One comment, the large balloon itself probably contributes a trivial amount to the overall radar cross section. I did an analysis for General Dynamics in the last century. We computed and then measured the cross section of some proposed short range pop-up surveillance devices. Peek and Lalo were the two devices. Maybe folks will remember those names.

JUST WATCHING THE NEWS . . .ONE CHANNEL IS ACTUALLY EXPRESSING SOME DOUBT THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH A SPY MISSION.
No surprise on the RCS of a balloon, especially a weather type balloon, not a lot there for the radar to grab on to/bounce off of. (Reminds me of the US trying to get radar fixes on fabric covered Soviet Po-2 biplane nuisance "bombers" used by the NKs in the Korean War.) Weather balloons are incredibly thin, and even thinner at altitude as they expand.
Weather balloons, which are made of latex or synthetic rubber (neoprene), are filled with either hydrogen or helium. The sides are about 0.051 mm thick before release and will be only 0.0025 mm thick at typical bursting altitudes!
Content from External Source
https://www.weather.gov/bmx/kidscor... are made,thick at typical bursting altitudes!

They are also surprising lightweight. As can be seen in this example, a weather balloon designed to have a 12' inflated diameter weights only 600 grams/1.3 pounds.

8240 Meteorological Balloon, 600 Grams Natural
Color: Natural
Uninflated Diameter: 37"
Standard Inflated Diameter: 12'
Burst Diameter: 16'
Content from External Source
https://www.scientificsales.com/8240-Weather-Balloon-600-Grams-Natural-p/8240.htm

Also, it depends on how one defines "spying." Even if this thing isn't collecting actionable signals intel data/photos, it has provided the Chinese (and the world for that matter) with information about our reaction times/processes and political will to deal with incursions into our airspace. That information cannot be gleaned from satellites.
 
one defense guy said also (big paraphrase) that you cant detect weapon signatures from orbit. orbits are also predictable (so enemies can hide stuff). etc.

we are building balloons too
Article:

Here’s Why China May Be Using Old-Fashioned Surveillance Technology When Satellites Exist​

....
Last May, Politico reported that the Pentagon spent around $3.8 million on balloon projects over the past two years and planned to spend more than $27 million on the inflatable tech in fiscal year 2023. The balloons, according to the report, will collect data and transmit information to aircraft and may eventually be used to scan for hypersonic weapons developed by China and Russia.
Excellent and well grounded post. Finally overcoming the hysteria!
 
No surprise on the RCS of a balloon, especially a weather type balloon, not a lot there for the radar to grab on to/bounce off of. (Reminds me of the US trying to get radar fixes on fabric covered Soviet Po-2 biplane nuisance "bombers" used by the NKs in the Korean War.) Weather balloons are incredibly thin, and even thinner at altitude as they expand.
Weather balloons, which are made of latex or synthetic rubber (neoprene), are filled with either hydrogen or helium. The sides are about 0.051 mm thick before release and will be only 0.0025 mm thick at typical bursting altitudes!
Content from External Source
https://www.weather.gov/bmx/kidscorner_weatherballoons#:~:text=Weather balloons, which are made,thick at typical bursting altitudes!

They are also surprising lightweight. As can be seen in this example, a weather balloon designed to have a 12' inflated diameter weights only 600 grams/1.3 pounds.

8240 Meteorological Balloon, 600 Grams Natural
Color: Natural
Uninflated Diameter: 37"
Standard Inflated Diameter: 12'
Burst Diameter: 16'
Content from External Source
https://www.scientificsales.com/8240-Weather-Balloon-600-Grams-Natural-p/8240.htm

Also, it depends on how one defines "spying." Even if this thing isn't collecting actionable signals intel data/photos, it has provided the Chinese (and the world for that matter) with information about our reaction times/processes and political will to deal with incursions into our airspace. That information cannot be gleaned from satellites.
I have a slight link with the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman Oklahoma. They launch relatively large balloons but no one has accused them of spying. My car license plate is a vanity plate, one of 100 released by the state. WX1- 094.
 
Beyond the obvious jet stream track reported elsewhere, I suggest that a proper spy mission wouldn't involve a large and visible device.
Maybe. Even probably. But two possible motives:

1. Plausible deniability.
2. Hiding in plain sight.

On the second, it might seem wildly improbable, to the point of absurdity, that the Soviets (or their bloc allies) would have spies planted in top counter-espionage jobs of their Cold War adversaries. And yet... it happened! (Kim Philby in Britain and Gabriele Gast in West Germany.)
 
how come it was spotted in the Aleutians, and then in Montana, but nowhere in between.
where did you see that mentioned, I must've missed it?

if they were just doing weather research they would have told everyone and announced launches and tracking of their devices. imo.
if they planned for a weather balloon to never leave Chinese territory, they wouldn't tell "everyone".
if it got blown off the mainland and onto the Pacific Ocean, they'd probably give it up as lost, and not tell anyone.

1. Plausible deniability.
you notice the DoD said in their original release that they had been thinking about shooting it down. The equipment would then be available for analysis, and it'd be obvious whether it was designed to gather intelligence or metereological data.
 
if they planned for a weather balloon to never leave Chinese territory, they wouldn't tell "everyone".
well apparently these balloons are all over the place the last few years..so they aren't doing a very good job keeping them in China. If one of our colleges were consistently freaking out other nations, i imagine a "THIS is our weather program" website would be easy enough to set up. There's nothing "secret" about weather -unless you are playing around with modifying it- so why all the secrecy?
 
For what it's worth I have exhausted all my resources in trying to find someone who would be able to sort of match the track of the balloon to wind patterns. The objective would be at least to, in a minor way, refute the DOD assertion that the balloon is being steered. The track of the balloon has that interesting loop up North and then follows my general understanding of winds aloft over CONUS. The NOAA National Severe Storms Lab and the National Weather service don't generally bother with those high altitude wind patterns so no luck. I had some interesting discussions along the way though.

I would like to let the younger members here know that in past years California received many balloons from China. I think they were weather related. There is one difference between then and now. Then they were accepted for what they were and no one panicked over spying.
 
For what it's worth I have exhausted all my resources in trying to find someone who would be able to sort of match the track of the balloon to wind patterns. The objective would be at least to, in a minor way, refute the DOD assertion that the balloon is being steered. The track of the balloon has that interesting loop up North and then follows my general understanding of winds aloft over CONUS. The NOAA National Severe Storms Lab and the National Weather service don't generally bother with those high altitude wind patterns so no luck.
What balloon track are you talking about? The one in post #13 https://www.metabunk.org/threads/is-this-a-chinese-spy-balloon.12858/post-287111 is supposedly based on actual wind data.
 
Or wind turbines used to generate electrical power to run whatever electronic gizmos the balloon is carrying.
Wind turbines don't work unless there is relative wind. The whole balloon and payload are drifting together. In any case the balloon has been shot down and the video seems to show that the payload separated from the balloon and is probably under water now.

As far as power is concerned the pictures seem to show large solar panels.
 
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Wind turbines don't work unless there is relative wind. The whole balloon and payload are drifting together. In any case the balloon has been shot down and the video seems to show that the payload separated from the balloon and is probably under water now.
Link for the video, please.
 
Some interesting details in this article - -

"U.S. officials say there is likely a third such balloon conducting surveillance in another part of the world."

"The balloons are part of an extensive Chinese military surveillance program that has been running for years, involving a Chinese company supplying the technology to the People’s Liberation Army, said two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."

"The airship contains “some sophisticated communications gear” and had been lingering over strategic sites, said one official. Earlier this week it was spotted loitering over Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, home to several nuclear missile silos. “But what it actually does we don’t know.”

I'm not sure that the weather balloon theory adds up at the moment.

https://webcache.googleusercontent....-balloon-shoot-down/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
 
Article:
GEN. RYDER: Sure. Thanks, Tara. So, first of all, we are aware of the PRC's statement. However, the fact is we know that it's a surveillance balloon, and I'm not going to be able to be more specific than that.
Pretty straightforward how we'd know. There were SIGINT aircraft (Rivet Joints) reported over the Midwest the past couple days. If the thing was transmitting, they'd have detected/recorded/analyzed whatever signals it was sending. Good chance we were jamming transmissions if they were providing actionable intel to the PRC.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104608/rc-135vw-rivet-joint/
 
Some interesting details in this article - -

"U.S. officials say there is likely a third such balloon conducting surveillance in another part of the world."

"The balloons are part of an extensive Chinese military surveillance program that has been running for years, involving a Chinese company supplying the technology to the People’s Liberation Army, said two officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter."

"The airship contains “some sophisticated communications gear” and had been lingering over strategic sites, said one official. Earlier this week it was spotted loitering over Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, home to several nuclear missile silos. “But what it actually does we don’t know.”

I'm not sure that the weather balloon theory adds up at the moment.

https://webcache.googleusercontent....-balloon-shoot-down/&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
It never did if we were sucking up transmissions from it with SIGINT a/c.
 
Yeah, I was in the weather balloon camp earlier... that interpretation no longer seems tenable.

(Side note, it was visible early this morning passing over my hometown. Were I an early riser, I could have gone out and watched it pass. However, early rising is not one of my vices... )
 
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