Travis Walton case: Crew boss confesses hoax

[John J.]

The first part of the Phoenix Lights (the V-shaped craft with 7 lights) fits a hoax theory better than the accepted skeptical theory (planes) imo.

Is it possible that lights in the sky were not physically connected to a single structure, but that witnesses perceived them as being lights on a single object? In the thread "Major UFO experiences are specific to the observer" Mick West raised the phenomenon of illusory contours (post #3), @flarkey's post #9 tied this in with "flying triangle" reports.

It is probable that some of the Hudson Valley flying triangle reports c. 1982-1984 were due to light aircraft flying in formation.
There had been reports of a large triangular or V-shaped UFO;

[in 1982] Over a month later, on June 25th, the NY Newburgh Evening News and the Beacon NY News reported another slew of sightings, specifically noting, "strangely enough, all of the incidents came on Thursday nights between 8:30 and 9:30PM." State police were quick to tell panicked callers that they had already tracked the objects to Stormville Airport after the last sighting (on April 29), telling them "… a group of professional pilots who were using small planes to practice close formation flying at night. [The authorities] said that the pilots usually [to] practice [at] night and were seen by a trooper landing at Stormville Airport shortly after state police received numerous calls wondering about the lights."

"Hudson Valley: How the media really reacted to a 1980s UFO flap", Nexus Newsfeed.com, Nick Coffin-Callis https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/u...the-media-really-reacted-to-a-1980s-ufo-flap/ (author's italics).

From the same article

The next wave began much like the first, in the early months of 1983. On March 4th, the Poughkeepsie Journal ran a headline reading "UFO flipped… and flashed…but it was only a stunt." The article, written by Helene Maichle, quotes State Trooper Frank Dunning, "I got so many calls I put my investigative skills to work," explaining that he "found [that] a team of stunt pilots from the Stormville Airport take to the skies every Thursday night to perform their maneuvers."
... ...
[In 1983] [initially quoting amateur UFO investigator Philip Imbrogno]] "...A number reported seeing a structure, some kind of gray shape," though [local journalist E.B.] Waizer adds "although several witnesses said they could make out the forms of five separate airplanes and hear the sound of propellers, other witnesses adamantly claim they saw one wedge-shaped object and that it hovered and darted in a manner unlike any airplane."
... ...
[1984] Investigator Dick Ruhl describes his encounter in volume 32, issue 6 of the APRO Journal: "We watched in utter amazement as the two objects glided extremely slowly and maneuvered about themselves, constantly changing from white as they approached us, to red as they turned away and then from the side, the red, green-blue and white lights appeared. They finally formed up into a huge boomerang-shape and it was then that I saw some light reflected on the bodies of the six aircraft. We knew we had the evidence on the 'Stormville pilots'," Ruhl and his associate Ricchie Petracca then staked out the airport and watched the planes land. Ruhl took a photo of one of the plane's tail IDs – N-76106 – which at the time was registered to an Ivan P, Hersh.

See also "The Hudson Valley UFO Hoax: Unravelling the Mystery of Triangular Objects in the New York Sky", UFO Report website https://uforeport.com/the-hudson-va...ry-of-triangular-objects-in-the-new-york-sky/

The evidence for a mundane explanation is compelling, I think, but nonetheless some witnesses believed they saw large boomerang/ chevron/ triangle -shaped craft. (A similar explanation might apply to some sightings during the Belgian "flying triangle" wave of 1989-1992).

Speculation on how the hoax was made: [Quoting Michael Rogers]

There's only one thing I've done in ufology in the last few 20 years or so, and that's the Phoenix Lights. The Phoenix Lights were a hoax. I have proof... The first event was it was a large thing that I am convinced now was more than likely a government creation. It was a third of a mile in diameter, but that could be created, especially with government money.

@jdog raised the improbability of this in post #26.

Rogers claims, after 20 years of research, that there was a purpose-built hoax UFO a third of a mile wide
(approx. 587 yards, 1760 feet/ 536 metres). Once built, it seems it was used once, Rogers thinks to test people's reactions to UFOs.

Rogers believes his notional hoax UFO was a lighter-than air aircraft, which might be a fair assumption for such a large structure, but if it maintained a chevron/ V-shape across over 580 yards it must have had significant structural rigidity (same applies for any hypothetical framework on which lights might have been mounted, suspended below a balloon or airship).

The largest steerable aircraft ever built was the airship Hindenburg, 245.3 metres/ 803' 10" long. Less than half the width of the hoax UFO
(Wikipedia, Hindenburg-class airship https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg-class_airship).
The Chinese spy balloon shot down by the USAF in 2023 was reported to be

...up to 200 feet [60.96 metres] tall for the actual balloon

by NORAD commander Air Force General Glen VanHerck ("Chinese spy balloon was 200 feet tall, may have had explosives: NORAD", New York Post 06 Feb 2023, Caitlin Doombos and Emily Crane, archived https://web.archive.org/web/2023020...023/02/06/chinese-spy-balloon-was-200ft-tall/

I don't think Mr Rogers' estimates of the claimed hoax UFO's size are plausible. He certainly wasn't the sole (or main) builder of such a craft, if it ever existed (which must be very doubtful indeed). His description of the hoax UFO might be taken as evidence that he had little knowledge of the scale of aircraft, and was unlikely to have built one himself.
It must be wildly implausible that such an extraordinary aircraft was built, even by the US government, to test people's reactions to UFOs.

Edited to add: To clarify, I think it's entirely possible, maybe probable, that Rogers played a part in (or at least knew details of) a hoaxed abduction of Travis Walton. But I'm not at all sure about the accuracy of everything he said to his daughter. He was probably a deeply unreliable source, and perhaps continued hankering after some sort of "international man of mystery"-type notoriety.

 

[Charlie Wiser]

Is it possible that lights in the sky were not physically connected to a single structure, but that witnesses perceived them as being lights on a single object? In the thread "Major UFO experiences are specific to the observer" Mick West raised the phenomenon of illusory contours (post #3), @flarkey's post #9 tied this in with "flying triangle" reports.

Yes, some witnesses perceived them as individual lights and others were convinced they were a single structure that blocked the stars.

From the MUFON and NUFORC reports and other interviews, it can be hard to know if the witnesses are referring to the first or second event. The second (flares) got most of the press coverage because there was lots of video of it. And those lights were sometimes referred to as V-shaped because they weren't always in a straight line (as the flares fell). So if someone saw the V-shaped object(s) then watched the news reporting on the flares, they might assume it was the same event, or (in the case of witnesses coming forward years later) they might misremember the time - such as reporting they saw something at 10PM when in fact they saw the 8PM sighting.

I don't think Mr Rogers' estimates of the claimed hoax UFO's size are plausible. He certainly wasn't the sole (or main) builder of such a craft, if it ever existed (which must be very doubtful indeed). His description of the hoax UFO might be taken as evidence that he had little knowledge of the scale of aircraft, and was unlikely to have built one himself.

I don't think it can be true that it was 1/3 mile wide, although that size - so far - comes from his pre-confession interviews.

 

[Ann K]

I find it hard to believe that a single huge structure such as described (1) existed at all, and (2) was deliberately flown over Phoenix, a huge, busy metropolitan area where even a largish kite would certainly be a traffic hazard if it came down. If there were ever such a creation, the state of Arizona has plenty of near-empty desert in which to fly it.

We've previously discussed the tendency of people to see groups of lights as a single object, and something like planes, either deliberately flying in formation or just perceived that way from some vantage points (like constellations) would be a much more probable explanation. I'll point out that Phoenix has a very busy airport, and I've clearly seen at least half a dozen planes in the air at once (in daytime) visible from South Mountain.