Thylacines in Tasmania (New photos from 1st March 2021)

NorCal Dave

Active Member
Article:
Waters states in the video he has handed the images over to Nick Mooney, a thylacine expert, at the Tasmanian Museum and Art Gallery (TMAG). A TMAG spokesperson said Mooney has now reviewed and assessed Mr Waters material on Tuesday afternoon, local time.

"Nick Mooney has concluded, that based on the physical characteristics shown in the photos provided by Mr Waters, the animals are very unlikely to be thylacines, and are most likely Tasmanian pademelons," TMAG told CNET. Mooney added the still images are "not so exciting."
[..]

The Tasmanian Government's Department of Parks, Water and Environment believe any sort of group would likely suffer from inbreeding, making long-term survival untenable. "Even if there did exist a few remaining individuals, it is unlikely that such a tiny population would be able to maintain a sufficient genetic diversity to allow for the viable perpetuation of the species in the long-term," it writes.

"Nobody can adequately look at a video and say that's definitely a thylacine, without some DNA evidence," says Andrew Pask, a marsupial evolutionary biologist at the University of Melbourne. "We've got to have a hair sample, a scat sample, something that can back it up."



All we're relying on him for is his testimony that these are current actual pictures from a trailcam. Do you have reason to believe he can't be trusted that far?
I think those pictures did come from a trail cam the way he said. I don't see him as a hoaxer, but I think he's definitely a wishful thinker and wants to believe. Maybe I'm being to conceptual(?). It seems the only reason to analyze the photo down to the pixel is to see if it's a Thylacine, is because he claimed it was. He has the burden of proof and failed to come anywhere close.

Pademelons live in the area. The other 2 pictures look like pademelons. As you point out, the only ligit expert he talked to said it's probably a pademelon, and, despite what he said in his first video about respecting Mooney's opinion, he just ignored it. It's a pademelon.

I know Metabunk is about specific claims and evidence, so, perhaps I'm in the wrong thinking too much about where and from who the evidence came from. If so, I stand corrected.
 

deirdre

Senior Member.
I know Metabunk is about specific claims and evidence, so, perhaps I'm in the wrong thinking too much about where and from who the evidence came from. If so, I stand corrected.
now that i watched the last 5 mins of his "photo" video, i'm agreeing with you. He was specifically asked to get a height scale and he specifically did not do that.

He also tried to make it look like the animal was heading downhill (by fudging where they crossed the log), i think because he realized how high that hill is and any dog like thing we would see it's head. i thought the area by the log was flat, but it's not. it's actually a pretty steep hill.

i guess we can give him points for filming that, but... as i said he always has his dog with him. he could have used his dog as scale or at least measured the height of the log.so now i'm suspicious of him. even i would have known to measure the height of the log.
uphill.png
 

Mendel

Senior Member.
I think those pictures did come from a trail cam the way he said. I don't see him as a hoaxer, but I think he's definitely a wishful thinker and wants to believe. Maybe I'm being to conceptual(?). It seems the only reason to analyze the photo down to the pixel is to see if it's a Thylacine, is because he claimed it was. He has the burden of proof and failed to come anywhere close.
Yes.
This is why the debunking part of Metabunk is set up the way it is.
We're not going to determine if Thylacines or UFOs or Yetis exist -- there is no way to prove that they don't, so if you want to believe that they do, that's fine.

But what Metabunk does is look at claims of evidence: we can determine if specific pictures or data are evidence of some belief, or whether there is another explanation that doesn't ask us to believe in something unlikely.

Like you said, it's about the proof: it's about evidence, not about beliefs.
And that's why it may be interesting who the believer is, but what ultimately matters is the evidence they're bringing to the table.
 
Last edited:

NorCal Dave

Active Member
Yes.
This is why the debunking part of Metabunk is set up the way it is.
We're not going to determine if Thylacines or UFOs or Yetis exist -- there is no way to prove that they don't, so if you want to believe that they do, that's fine.

But what Metabunk does is look at claims of evidence: we can determine if specific pictures or data are evidence of some belief, or whether there is another explanation that doesn't ask us to believe in something unlikely.

Like you said, it's about the proof: it's about evidence, not about beliefs.
And that's why it may be interesting who the believer is, but what ultimately matters is the evidence they're bringing to the table.
Yes sir. Have enjoyed the site for years. Just trying to learn how to contribute in a meaningful way.
 

NorCal Dave

Active Member
now that i watched the last 5 mins of his "photo" video, i'm agreeing with you. He was specifically asked to get a height scale and he specifically did not do that.

He also tried to make it look like the animal was heading downhill (by fudging where they crossed the log), i think because he realized how high that hill is and any dog like thing we would see it's head. i thought the area by the log was flat, but it's not. it's actually a pretty steep hill.

i guess we can give him points for filming that, but... as i said he always has his dog with him. he could have used his dog as scale or at least measured the height of the log.so now i'm suspicious of him. even i would have known to measure the height of the log.
uphill.png
I understand that what he does or says is not the same as the evidence that he presents, but I think it is pertinent to the validity of the claim. I have played with trail cams. Sometimes you get nothing. But I would be curious to see what ells is on those SD cards. What are we not being shown? Does he have a bunch of pictures that clearly show pademelons in the same area?
 
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