Possible MH370 Debris found on Reunion Island

[derwoodii]

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/565335-flaperon-washes-up-reunion-island-2.html#post9062796

ooh im gitting excited now its been such a long frustrating wait for any debris finds

 

[CeruleanBlu]

ooh im gitting excited now its been such a long frustrating wait for any debris finds

It is looking promising indeed to be identified as a 777 piece.

 

[TWCobra]

Interesting that the rear of the part seems to have been sheared off.

Flaps down on impact?? Certainly none of the compression you'd expect with a high speed vertical impact. Interesting if true.

 

[sharpnfuzzy]

Seems that a suitcase has also been found washed up on the island.

 

[derwoodii]

i found this drift buoy map posted on http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/565335-flaperon-washes-up-reunion-island-2.html#post9062874

OP says "no help" ?? tho i see it as evidence of possible direction of crash site but i cannot recreate or extract same map from the given linked site to check as its a lot more north than most of current search zones


says its Drift of buoys since march 8th 2014

So hoping more will soon be found put more rest to the lost family's

To some relief of our OZ bean counters the salvages parts landed on French turf so the burden of $$ cost to follow up check seemingly falls to them and not Australia who's been ponying up the $ for much of the past work. I hear China tipped in but not seen much value or return.

 

[Joe]

The Conspiracy theorist say it was shot down as it headed Towards Diego Garcia which is why they say it was spotted over Maldives . Im sure the debris being found SW Of Diego Garcia might add to the conspiracy

 

[Bruce Robertson]

In my own MH370 theory, I put the crash site at 21S, 103E (do a web search for MH370 and my name -- I can't post a link here). The squares with the first image above.

 

[derwoodii]

In my own scenario (www.mh370site.com^), I put the crash site at 21S, 103E. The squares with the first image from sailwx.info.

yes i saw that and you suggested debris to drift maybe found Madagascar and a stalled in soft landing so most air frame sank intact so not much left but wing parts, your doing pretty good so far.

hey joe, yes sadly CT minds will push all sorts of claims from imbedded ignorace or site click bait

 

[derwoodii]

you can't make this stuff up a volcano on Reunion island Le Piton de la Fournaise has just decided to complicate things and threaten to erupt

http://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...ano-set-to-erupt/story-fnizu68q-1227464754936

INVESTIGATORS examining a piece of debris suspected to belong to missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have been forced to temporaily flee the site where the part washed up.

An emergency evacuation is under way on the south-eastern side of La Reunion island, where the World Heritage-listed volcano, Le Piton de la Fournaise has recorded unusual seismic activity.

 

[JesseCuster]

you can't make this stuff up a volcano on Reunion island Le Piton de la Fournaise has just decided to complicate things and threaten to erupt.

No doubt HAARP was used to activate that volcano to hamper any efforts to recover debris that might show what really happened... (I bet that has been claimed in seriousness somewhere on the Interwebs)

 

[Gridlock]

Damage at trailing edge is evidence of a flaps-down wet landing? Lack of overall damage is evidence against an uncontrolled entry/mid-air break-up?

I guess it's expected more debris will come ashore over time, but hopefully just this is enough to let those affected grieve better.

 

[Whitebeard]

No doubt HAARP was used to activate that volcano to hamper any efforts to recover debris that might show what really happened... (I bet that has been claimed in seriousness somewhere on the Interwebs)

Not come across that one, yet, but I've been following this story on a few CT sites, above Top Secret, David Ikes forums etc and there are loads of claims of planted wreckage, faked photos, etc. Even someone suggesting the flap is actually from MH-17 planted by the CIA (complete with barnacles glued on)

 

[TEEJ]

Sky News UK ran a piece to camera from the island on the flaperon being spotted earlier. The claim was that others have come forward to say that they had seen the same aircraft part a month ago in the surf. The claim was that it was spotted at a different location further up the beach. Possibly the claim is true? Possibly the people that have come forward just dismissed it at the time as a piece of old boat wreckage?

Another group of people told Sky News they saw what could have been the same debris a month ago, further up the beach, meaning it could have been floating around the Reunion coast for some time.

Video at following link.

Video: MH370 Debris Found 'A Month Ago'

http://news.sky.com/story/1528673/mh370-man-describes-moment-he-found-wing-piece

 

[Mick West]

A beach cleaner on the salnd says he fond several items going back to May this year, which might have been from the plane. But he though it was just garbage, so burnt them
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ed-up-on-Reunion-Island-three-months-ago.html

Nicolas Ferrier barely gave the blue seat a second glance. As he carried out his daily patrol of the wild shores of Reunion, picking up debris from the jet black sands and giant boulders, it seemed to him like just another piece of rubbish – a bus seat, perhaps, or a hang glider's chair.

...

"I found a couple of suitcases too, around the same time, full of things," he said, almost in passing.

What did you do with them?

"I burnt them," he said, pointing to the pile of ashes lying on the boulders. "That's my job. I collect rubbish, and burn it.

"I could have found many things that belonged to the plane, and burnt them, without realising."

Nicolas Ferrier on the beach where the piece of aircraft has been found (Paul Grover/The Telegraph)

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

sorry Mick here is the link

http://www.watoday.com.au/world/mh3...e-washes-up-on-reunion-island-20150729-gindj0

"Erik van Sebille, an oceanographer specialising in ocean currents who did extensive computer simulations last year of where Flight 370 wreckage might float, said that it was possible that some pieces might now be reaching Reunion, almost 5000 kilometres from the plane's last known location.

But the plane would have had to enter the water off north-western Australia, he said."

 

[Mick West]

Sebille's work shows that the debris could have come from pretty much anywhere in the South Indian Ocean, but if it came from the search area suggested from the satellite comms analysis, then it would probably be from the north of that area. Still a huge area, and not certain.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/03/17/world/asia/search-for-flight-370.html

Published on Jul 31, 2015
Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 went missing on 8 March 2014. A multinational search effort began soon after and it is still in progress. The primary focus has been on a vast area west of Australia. On the basis of the aircraft debris that was found on 29 July on the island of Réunion, hydrodynamic experts of Deltares produced a simulation model that indicates that the northern part of the search is now a more likely source of the debris.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

yupp, however his calculation is based on object washing ashore in July, there are multiple witnesses (including guy that is a beachcomber and used the item for different purposes) the object washed ashore in May (or even before), which puts the crash location even further to the north on the 7th arc... the IO current is circular and it goes like a reverse clock

 

[Mick West]

yupp, however his calculation is based on object washing ashore in July, there are multiple witnesses (including guy that is a beachcomber and used the item for different purposes) the object washed ashore in May (or even before), which puts the crash location even further to the north on the 7th arc

Not hugely though.

Try it yourself:
http://adrift.org.au/backward?lat=-22.3&lng=57.7&center=0&startmon=Jan

The search will be proceeding in probabilistic grounds, this new info will all be plugged into a model that tries to figure out where the best areas are to search.

 

[TWCobra]

The Conspiracy theorist say it was shot down as it headed Towards Diego Garcia which is why they say it was spotted over Maldives . Im sure the debris being found SW Of Diego Garcia might add to the conspiracy

Diego Garcia implicated? Hmmmm.

From the Notams (Notices To Airmen) from my last flight. It's been there for a couple of years now.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

I guess that site is frequently visited these days

if I put it a little bit south of Christmas Island and choose forward option, after 1 year and 2 months it gets right to Reunion Island...

 

[Mick West]

I guess that site is frequently visited these days

if I put it a little bit south of Christmas Island and choose forward option, after 1 year and 2 months it gets right to Reunion Island...

Which tells us very little. It's an inexact model of a chaotic system. Fluid mechanics is not incredibly predictable over large timeframes. Hence the huge spread from a single point.

 

[Mick West]

And also, this a dispersion model for marine plastics - mostly small objects. Larger objects will behave differently.

The rubber duck icon is not entirely whimsical. An accidental dump of 29,000 rubber ducks (and other similar toys) in 1992 has been a valuable tool for studying ocean currents.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_Floatees

A consignment of Friendly Floatee toys, manufactured in China for The First Years Inc., departed from Hong Kong on a container ship, the Ever Laurel,[2] destined for Tacoma, Washington, U.S.. On 10 January 1992, during a storm in the North Pacific Ocean close to the International Date Line, twelve 40-foot (13.3 m) intermodal containers were washed overboard. One of these containers held 28,800 Floatees,[3] a child's bath toy which came in a number of forms: red beavers, green frogs, blue turtles and yellow ducks. At some point, the container opened (possibly due to collision with other containers or the ship itself) and the Floatees were released. Although each toy was mounted in a plastic housing attached to a backing card, subsequent tests showed that the cardboard quickly degraded in sea water allowing the Floatees to escape. Unlike many bath toys, Friendly Floatees have no holes in them so they do not take on water.

Seattle oceanographers Curtis Ebbesmeyer and James Ingraham, who were working on an ocean surface current model, began to track their progress. The mass release of 28,800 objects into the ocean at one time offered significant advantages over the standard method of releasing 500–1000 drift bottles. The recovery rate of objects from the Pacific Ocean is typically around 2%, so rather than the 10 to 20 recoveries typically seen with a drift bottle release, the two scientists expected numbers closer to 600. They were already tracking various other spills of flotsam, including 61,000 Nike running shoes that had been lost overboard in 1990.

But they go in many direction, and could have come from many directions. There's a real danger in oversimplifying ocean currents as some kind of river.

 

[Joe]

Diego Garcia implicated? Hmmmm.

From the Notams (Notices To Airmen) from my last flight. It's been there for a couple of years now.

View attachment 14130

Emergency to friendly aircraft .

 

[TWCobra]

It would be an emergency field for any aircraft. Light aircraft in trouble have landed at places like Johnson island during the middle of research for Star Wars and they weren't shot down.

I'd be surprised if Diego actually had any active ground to air sites on it.

 

[TWCobra]

Looks like a door may have washed up as well.

http://m.smh.com.au/world/plane-door-washes-up-on-reunion-island-20150802-gipugz.html

 

[TWCobra]

If it is the Malaysian 777, the paint on the door should be a clear indication.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

Mick I know that but it's about probabilities, noone can point exact location of origin but it's safe to make some estimations and say area SW of Australia has 5% chance, NW of Australia 35% chance etc.

Just look how much red color is around Reunion if you pick Christmas Island as a starting point compared to current search area.

 

[TEEJ]

Looks like a door may have washed up as well.

http://m.smh.com.au/world/plane-door-washes-up-on-reunion-island-20150802-gipugz.html

It turned out to be part of a domestic ladder/step stool

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ed-is-in-fact-a-domestic-ladder-10432994.html

 

[Mick West]

Mick I know that but it's about probabilities, noone can point exact location of origin but it's safe to make some estimations and say area SW of Australia has 5% chance, NW of Australia 35% chance etc.

Just look how much red color is around Reunion if you pick Christmas Island as a starting point compared to current search area.

But the search has to proceed on multiple assumptions, not just a backwards trace of the ocean currents - which yield thousand of square miles of equally probably start points. It's a mistake to focus on one variable. Or to focus on one spot for unquantifiable additional reasons.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

you mean like ATSB focused on southern SIO for a year or so? Yes I absolutely agree.

 

[Mick West]

you mean like ATSB focused on southern SIO for a year or so? Yes I absolutely agree.

No, thats no what I mean. Please don't paraphrase me and then agree with me. I'm saying it's a mistake to focus on one variable. If you have multiple variable then you have a model that gives you a set of probabilities that then indicates where to look. You then factor other things into it, like if you can search fifty 0.0001% areas for the cost of one 0.001% area.

You can't armchair criticize the search pattern unless you know all the variables and factors.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

well now when we have debris literally everything points to the opposite of their defined area

that same area has been extensively searched for debris with various planes ships etc.

to miss one piece wouldn't be a surprise, but so many? nigh on impossible

I have and I will always criticize the search patterns that have no plausible motivation, as much as they match the assumption, especially if I have the evidence.

 

[Mick West]

well now when we have debris literally everything points to the opposite of their defined area

No, it simply indicates the north of the defined search area.

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

notice that this is based on the object washing up after a year and 4 months, however now we have confirmation from multiple witnesses that it was first seen in May so that makes it a year and 2 months(and maybe even before), which all pushes the likely location of origin even more to the north

 

[Stevan Gvozdenovic]

Debris tracking flight MH370 based on ocean currents



northern part of the search area looks much more probable if this is anything to go by

(I would add this to my last post but edit didn't work for some reason from my Opera browser)

 

[Rob]

Even if MH370 crashed on the north side of the search area, in ocean current simulations the debris still fans out about to some 1700 km wide by the time it gets to Mauritius / Reunion Island.

Since Reunion Island is only 70 km across, there is only a 4 % chance of any debris from MH370 ending up on Reunion Island.

If this flaperon is indeed from MH370, we are either extremely lucky, or there is a LOT more debris from MH370 still floating in the South Indian Ocean.

If the latter, we may wonder why none of that debris was found in the earlier searches back in March/April 2014, much closer to the crash site...
Maybe we were looking in the wrong place back then ?

 

[Gridlock]

Since Reunion Island is only 70 km across, there is only a 4 % chance of any debris from MH370 ending up on Reunion Island.

You'd need to know how many pieces of debris there are, and how large a swath they covered at 0-day, and probably dozens of other data, to make this assertion.

 

[Whitebeard]

it appears more debris is now turning up
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/06/world/mh370-investigation/

The new items found on Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean include pieces of windows, seat cushions and aluminum, Malaysian officials said. But they added that it's unclear whether the objects, which still need to be verified by French authorities, are from MH370.

"The team told us they have managed to collect more debris on the island and we have handed it over to the authorities in France," Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai told reporters. "A plane window and some aluminum foil ... there are many items."

 

[Mick West]

Since Reunion Island is only 70 km across, there is only a 4 % chance of any debris from MH370 ending up on Reunion Island.

If this flaperon is indeed from MH370, we are either extremely lucky, or there is a LOT more debris from MH370 still floating in the South Indian Ocean.

Your odds are meaningless, Reunion is just where the debris happened to end up. Of course it's "lucky" that it ends up in a particular spot, but the real odds you need to calculate are the odds of some debris ending up on a beach anywhere, and then calculate the odds of it being found.

If the latter, we may wonder why none of that debris was found in the earlier searches back in March/April 2014, much closer to the crash site...

Because it's vastly harder to find debris on the open ocean, than to wait for it to turn up on a random beach somewhere.

 

[Mick West]

it appears more debris is now turning up
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/06/world/mh370-investigation/

Not really, as your articles says:

"A great deal of additional material has been handed over to the police" on Reunion, Australia's Joint Agency Coordination Centre said in a statement. "While this is being examined, so far none of it appears to have come from an aircraft."

I think there's a problem with the Malaysian communication. They are basically repeating things they have heard from the media, like the "plane window":

Which was just the plastic side from a sewing machine