Nov. 1, 2026 Learjet 60 Crash - Does Dash Cam Video Prove That The Horizontal Stabilizer Was Missing?

[Z.W. Wolf]

This thread is meant to address one issue only. It's a photo analyses thread only. If you want to address other issues regarding this awful tragedy, including conspiracy theories, please start a separate thread.

Two closely related questions.
-Does this video show that the horizontal stabilizer was completely gone?
-Can this video prove that the horizontal stabilizer was completely gone, or that it was mostly intact?

Note: Yes the left elevator has been found (in pieces). But the issue at hand is in regard to the entire horizontal stabilizer. Not the same thing.


I'm citing Dave McKeegan; a professional photographer, and someone I consider to be a level headed debunker. I know his video addresses conspiracy theories, but I'm concentrating on one section of his video.

Cued to 4:23

The rear stabilizers [horizontal stabilizer] don't appear visible in this footage. They may well have detached during descent. However, they may also still be on. It's
difficult to tell because unfortunately, car dash cams don't give the best quality recordings. They heavily compress footage in order to be able to record more. They're designed for capturing traffic accidents with vehicles that are traveling much slower than this. Part of that compression method to reduce file size is rather than saving the data for every single pixel of every single frame, it will do things like it will record one entire frame, then [while recording] the next few frames, it will save only the pixels that change. Or in very compressed video, it blocks together groups of pixels with the same color or reduces the overall number of color values available and pixels with similar colors will just be given the same color value.

You can often see this even in higher quality video in areas where there's gradual light fall off. It appears as bands of colors and this is then being uploaded to social media websites that run their own video compressions to reduce file size in order to save space. People will then download that video from one website and upload it to another potentially multiple times over. So the video that you could be seeing could have been compressed every which way but loose.

Point being, we can see in this frame how the main wings of the aircraft, which are much larger than the rear stabilizers, barely show up in the frame because it's a close match to the clouds behind it. In fact, the right wing only just shows up because the patch of cloud in the background is lighter. The left wing doesn't show up at all because it's near the exact same color as the clouds. You can even see the compression effects on the very first frame that the plane comes into view here, where part of the plane's fuselage has been compressed out of the video entirely. And the clouds behind where the stabilizers would have been are the same color.

So, it could well be that the video compression has just put the stabilizers and the clouds as the same color for this frame. The main wings of the plane become clearer on the following frame because they're now below the clouds, but the stabilizer section is still up where the clouds are, so it might not potentially be showing up. And then by the next frame of the video, the plane has gone entirely from view. Though, I did find a different copy of the video on a news website and this seems to be a slightly less compressed version. And one of the frames, it looks like the rear stabilizer is still there, just blurring. It's difficult to tell.

To minimize the problem with compression due to multiple generations, I went to the Facebook page on which the dash cam footage was originally uploaded by the owner of the car/dash cam.

Source: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1156295230420683



I took these frames from that version of the video and saved them in a lossless format - TIF. I then manually enhanced these frames, to the best of my ability, with ACDSee and saved them in PNG.

Returning to the two questions:
Does this video show that the horizontal stabilizer was completely gone?
Answer: Maybe... maybe not. Too many unknowns.

Can this video prove that the horizontal stabilizer was completely gone, or mostly intact?
Answer: No.



One remaining thing...
Can the original recording, as analyzed by experts, prove that that the horizontal stabilizer was completely gone, partially intact, or mostly intact?

Answer: I don't know.

 

[Dan Burt]

The NTSB has already said that parts/the majority of the left horizontal stabilizer were found between 1.3 and 3.8 miles from the crash site.


Source: https://www.facebook.com/reel/1608347231307364

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

There's been some confusion in the media about left elevator, versus horizontal stabilizer, versus tail. The elevators are a part of, or arguably attached to, the horizontal stabilizer. I've been trying to find an illustration.

We are already unsure whether the horizontal stabilizer as a whole is, or can be, visible. The left elevator is smaller still.

 

[Z.W. Wolf]

This is a Learjet T-tail illustration from a manual (PDF). I had GPT mark the left elevator. The left elevator has been found, in pieces. (I did mention that in the OP.)

I should correct myself. There's, technically, a left and right horizontal stabilizer, just as there's a left and right wing. I've been saying horizontal stabilizer in the singular.

 

[Mendel]

The NTSB has already said that parts/the majority of the left horizontal stabilizer were found between 1.3 and 3.8 miles from the crash site.

If you're sourcing a NTSB briefing, the most direct source is usually the NTSBgov youtube channel.
At 1:55, Tom Chapman says that the majority of the left elevator has been found in 3 pieces, and it's certain that it separated in the air.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7aLwIMptyc


I have no idea why @Z.W. Wolf cares about whether the elevator or the whole stabilizer separated: we still don't know when, the aircraft would've been uncontrollable either way, and from an air safety perspective the main problem was that the aircraft entered an active storm cell that the crew needed to have recognized and avoided laterally in order to survive. The overspeed building up during the descent was more than enough to threaten the structural integrity of the tailplane.