MH370 "Clone" being held by Israel?

cjnewson88

Member
A rather pointless conspiracy theory seems to be making its way through the bowels of the internet which claims that a 'clone' for MH370 is being held by Israel for some unspecified purpose.. but because it's Israel is must be nefarious..:rolleyes:

The video here as well as several of the usual woo forums states that a Boeing 777-2H6(ER), previously registered 9M-MRI, was sold to GA Telesis (who lease as well as dismantle aircraft for parts). It is interesting to note that the same company mid last year disassembled an ex-Malaysian Airlines B-777-200, registration 9M-MRK. In the same article they mention that they also have "another 777-200ER aircraft scheduled for disassembly in August." Anyway, the video implies something suspicious is going on because 9M-MRI is the exact same make and model and airline as MH-370 and therefore the fact it is now in storage in Israel is setting off alarm bells in the minds of the [suspicious]

As it turns out, Malaysian Airlines entire B-777 fleet is up for sale after a decision was made to start a replacement program.

However this particular B-777 was never "owned" my Malaysian Airlines. According to this page they were leasing it from ALAFCO; a Kuwait based leasing company.

This alleged "clone" of MH370 was withdrawn from service in April last year, sold to GA Telesis in October, who re-registered it to N105GT. It has been put into storage for apparent disassembling as mentioned in their July 2013 press release. The page here states that it's last flight took it to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv in November after being stored for a short period of time in France. I would assume after purchasing from ALAFCO, the aircraft is stored there until GA Telesis are ready for it to be flown to the US for disassembly.

It is also worthy to note that GA Telesis have at least 3 other aircraft stored (Down bottom of page under Fleet List heading, click the Whole Fleet tab) so it's certainly not uncommon for them to mothball their aircraft.

So in effect I have been looking for anything in amongst this that looks 'suspicious' and there is none. It doesn't take an IQ of more than room temperature to guess what pre-exiting prejudice spawned this theory.. Short of calling up GA Telesis and asking them what they're doing with N105GT, I think it's safe to assume it's on death row.

Any other takers on this?

:cool:
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Svartbjørn

Senior Member.
Ive seen a few people talking about the Israeli consulates pulling their people out of several other countries (and onet hat says they pulled them all).. same old same ole dooms day prediction Israel turning on the US and starting WWIII. Has to do with the Valley of Armagheddon most of the time but that had more to do with the primary trade route coming into and out of Israel being through that narrow passage back during the days of antiquity... depends on how you interpret things I suppose.
 

cjnewson88

Member
Yeah I saw that a few days ago. Someone was posting on facebook about how Israel knew something was up because they closed all their embassies around the world. Turns out they were all actually striking for better pay. Guess the conspiracy theorists missed that part while they were busy running the family down to their doomsday shelter?
 

Svartbjørn

Senior Member.
Nah, they're claiming that the strikes are a cover story. Guess thats what happens when you have a group as badass as Mossad.. fans the flames.
 

moderateGOP

Active Member
A rather pointless conspiracy theory seems to be making its way through the bowels of the internet which claims that a 'clone' for MH370 is being held by Israel for some unspecified purpose.. but because it's Israel is must be nefarious..:rolleyes:

The video here as well as several of the usual woo forums states that a Boeing 777-2H6(ER), previously registered 9M-MRI, was sold to GA Telesis (who lease as well as dismantle aircraft for parts). It is interesting to note that the same company mid last year disassembled an ex-Malaysian Airlines B-777-200, registration 9M-MRK. In the same article they mention that they also have "another 777-200ER aircraft scheduled for disassembly in August." Anyway, the video implies something suspicious is going on because 9M-MRI is the exact same make and model and airline as MH-370 and therefore the fact it is now in storage in Israel is setting off alarm bells in the minds of the paranoid and delusional.

As it turns out, Malaysian Airlines entire B-777 fleet is up for sale after a decision was made to start a replacement program.

However this particular B-777 was never "owned" my Malaysian Airlines. According to this page they were leasing it from ALAFCO; a Kuwait based leasing company.

This alleged "clone" of MH370 was withdrawn from service in April last year, sold to GA Telesis in October, who re-registered it to N105GT. It has been put into storage for apparent disassembling as mentioned in their July 2013 press release. The page here states that it's last flight took it to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv in November after being stored for a short period of time in France. I would assume after purchasing from ALAFCO, the aircraft is stored there until GA Telesis are ready for it to be flown to the US for disassembly.

It is also worthy to note that GA Telesis have at least 3 other aircraft stored (Down bottom of page under Fleet List heading, click the Whole Fleet tab) so it's certainly not uncommon for them to mothball their aircraft.

So in effect I have been looking for anything in amongst this that looks 'suspicious' and there is none. It doesn't take an IQ of more than room temperature to guess what pre-exiting prejudice spawned this theory.. Short of calling up GA Telesis and asking them what they're doing with N105GT, I think it's safe to assume it's on death row.

Any other takers on this?

:cool:


You know this site is the first site I go to when I hear of these types of stories. I was going to post something about this, and to ask for help to debunk, since I just heard about this story but lo and behold it's already debunked on this site!!! And it was done on last Thursday! Thank you much.

Since the debunk is a little hard to follow and not just plain in your face, like the CTs like as noted in their videos, I'd imagine they won't be happy with this explanation...
 

moderateGOP

Active Member
A rather pointless conspiracy theory seems to be making its way through the bowels of the internet which claims that a 'clone' for MH370 is being held by Israel for some unspecified purpose.. but because it's Israel is must be nefarious..:rolleyes:

The video here as well as several of the usual woo forums states that a Boeing 777-2H6(ER), previously registered 9M-MRI, was sold to GA Telesis (who lease as well as dismantle aircraft for parts). It is interesting to note that the same company mid last year disassembled an ex-Malaysian Airlines B-777-200, registration 9M-MRK. In the same article they mention that they also have "another 777-200ER aircraft scheduled for disassembly in August." Anyway, the video implies something suspicious is going on because 9M-MRI is the exact same make and model and airline as MH-370 and therefore the fact it is now in storage in Israel is setting off alarm bells in the minds of the paranoid and delusional.

As it turns out, Malaysian Airlines entire B-777 fleet is up for sale after a decision was made to start a replacement program.

However this particular B-777 was never "owned" my Malaysian Airlines. According to this page they were leasing it from ALAFCO; a Kuwait based leasing company.

This alleged "clone" of MH370 was withdrawn from service in April last year, sold to GA Telesis in October, who re-registered it to N105GT. It has been put into storage for apparent disassembling as mentioned in their July 2013 press release. The page here states that it's last flight took it to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv in November after being stored for a short period of time in France. I would assume after purchasing from ALAFCO, the aircraft is stored there until GA Telesis are ready for it to be flown to the US for disassembly.

It is also worthy to note that GA Telesis have at least 3 other aircraft stored (Down bottom of page under Fleet List heading, click the Whole Fleet tab) so it's certainly not uncommon for them to mothball their aircraft.

So in effect I have been looking for anything in amongst this that looks 'suspicious' and there is none. It doesn't take an IQ of more than room temperature to guess what pre-exiting prejudice spawned this theory.. Short of calling up GA Telesis and asking them what they're doing with N105GT, I think it's safe to assume it's on death row.

Any other takers on this?

:cool:

Also when is Twin considered an Airplane classification? This threw me off, because I did not know this before seeing the video. It's a classic trick to make you think that Israel is actually hiding the clone or even the same plane. For all us news headline junkies, that's what I read at first glance. "Flight 370 'Twin' Airplane." Not Flight 370, twin airplane. Without quotes is correct grammar. Why they put Twin in quotes is specifically for this purpose. Because otherwise nobody would care if Israel had a twin airplane of the same make and model as the other one. But "twin" airplane makes it all that more believable simply because CTs like to put quotes around words so they can question...

I wrote that as clear as I could, but when you study CTs for as long as I have, you find their backwards gobbledygook [logic to them] hard to put into words sometimes.
 

rmckissock

New Member
So how do we verify what you say
Ive seen a few people talking about the Israeli consulates pulling their people out of several other countries (and onet hat says they pulled them all).. same old same ole dooms day prediction Israel turning on the US and starting WWIII. Has to do with the Valley of Armagheddon most of the time but that had more to do with the primary trade route coming into and out of Israel being through that narrow passage back during the days of antiquity... depends on how you interpret things I suppose.
usually i pay more attention to what people do than what they say, because words are used mostly for deception and actions speaks volumes. If you erase the words what we are left with is a missing plane, a similar plane being housed by Israel, who is known for their false flag ops " who can forget the dancing Israeli's of 911", Israel consulate pulling their people , and then America releasing an alert of a possible attack on the east coast by missile or plane. Not to mention, the all the cell phone drama. That's what i see, what i hear is another story, the truth is always going to be simple because thats just the way it is, it's the deception that is going to be complicated
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
usually i pay more attention to what people do than what they say, because words are used mostly for deception and actions speaks volumes.

OK.


If you erase the words what we are left with is a missing plane, a similar plane being housed by Israel, who is known for their false flag ops " who can forget the dancing Israeli's of 911".....


OK....stopping here.....Do you know the term "Gish Gallop"?


...Israel consulate pulling their people , and then America releasing an alert of a possible attack on the east coast by missile or plane.

Repeating the phrase "Gish Gallop", and a suggestion to research its derivation.


Not to mention, the all the cell phone drama.

Already debunked. (IF you refer to the "Diego Garcia text message"?)
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/de...xt-from-diego-garcia-fake-exif-gps-data.3397/
 

MikeC

Closed Account
Weed I think rmck was pointing out that het conspiracy is complicated - whereas the truth is simple....he's (she?) is not claiming those things are true.
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
Weed I think rmck was pointing out that het conspiracy is complicated - whereas the truth is simple....he's (she?) is not claiming those things are true.

OK....I might have misinterpreted?

Personal bias perhaps, because the very concept of the "Clone Being Held By Israel" just rubs me the wrong way. Not for any particular partisan political reasons, but just because on its face, it's so absurd.
 

Svartbjørn

Senior Member.
So how do we verify what you say

usually i pay more attention to what people do than what they say, because words are used mostly for deception and actions speaks volumes. If you erase the words what we are left with is a missing plane, a similar plane being housed by Israel, who is known for their false flag ops " who can forget the dancing Israeli's of 911", Israel consulate pulling their people , and then America releasing an alert of a possible attack on the east coast by missile or plane. Not to mention, the all the cell phone drama. That's what i see, what i hear is another story, the truth is always going to be simple because thats just the way it is, it's the deception that is going to be complicated

The "truth" is never simple. There are three sides to every story.. The opposing views those involved and what actually happened. "truth" is subjective, evidence is not. Using the precept of Occam's Razor, what is more likely... a massive vast world wide conspiracy lead by Israel to dominate the world through subversion and false flags to start WWIII.. OR there's a labor strike, a plane is missing and some /r/tard from 4chan did what /r/tards from 4chan do and trolled the internet and the world by creating a fake phone story?
 

moderateGOP

Active Member
The "truth" is never simple. There are three sides to every story.. The opposing views those involved and what actually happened. "truth" is subjective, evidence is not. Using the precept of Occam's Razor, what is more likely... a massive vast world wide conspiracy lead by Israel to dominate the world through subversion and false flags to start WWIII.. OR there's a labor strike, a plane is missing and some /r/tard from 4chan did what /r/tards from 4chan do and trolled the internet and the world by creating a fake phone story?

I've always called 4chan the garbage can of the internet.
 

Oxymoron

Banned
Banned
All the above may well be true but the 'conspiracy theory' element is not simply that Israel has a 'twin' of the missing plane but is also being viewed in the context of highly speculative claims from Israelis, accusing Iran of planning a false flag:

But let's not debunk such claims eh? Wrong tribe & wot not. Not only that... if a 'conspiracy theory' emanates from the 'right sources' and 'blames the right people', it becomes "not a stretch to point the finger at Israel's middle east nemesis", even if there is not one jot of evidence to support it.
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
So in the context of Israel fears that Iran may have stolen the plane for nefarious use, it somehow follows that Israel have a clone of the plane for nefarious use?
That 'context' doesn't make the claim any more sensible.
 

Svartbjørn

Senior Member.
So in the context of Israel fears that Iran may have stolen the plane for nefarious use, it somehow follows that Israel have a clone of the plane for nefarious use?
That 'context' doesn't make the claim any more sensible.

That DOES bring up a good point.. Mossad's pretty well known for using hyper realistic training.. so IF they had evidence that iran stole the plane, or if there was some evidence that Israeli nationals were in danger on the flight, it would make total sense for them to make an exact duplicate of the plane and train for hostage extraction. But.... thats also assuming that the idea that Iran stole the plane is correct in the first place... which is totally unsupported.
 

Oxymoron

Banned
Banned
If you want to debunk something else, then start a new thread.
I do not 'wish to debunk something else', I am merely contextualising the OP which erroniously stated
A rather pointless conspiracy theory
'that Israel had a clone for 'nefarious use'; which totally misses the conspiracy theory, which is:

Israel, being extremely well known for false flag, terrorism and murder on a grand scale, makes a big who and ha, predicting that Iran has stolen the missing aircraft to use it as a terrorist weapon along the lines of 9/11; whilst Israel is in fact, in possession of an identical plane which Israel could use in just such a false flag attack as Israel predicted thus bringing great kudos to the magnificent Israeli intelligence gathering which led to them pre identify the 'attacker... sinister Iran'.

This transforms what was set out as a "A rather pointless conspiracy theory", into a 'the Jews are doing it again conspiracy theory'. The irony being that Israel's baseless and alarmist accusations against Iran, become the basis for the accusations/conspiracy theories against Israel.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
The point of the OP is that there is nothing suspicious about the plane.

Wild speculation is off topic. If you've got some evidence the plane is suspicious then post it. If you've got another topic, then start another thread.
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/posting-guidelines.2064/

Guidelines for Responding
Replying to a thread has less strict requirements. But you should try to stick to the following:​
    1. Stay on topic - if there's a new claim of evidence, then it should go in a new thread.
    2. Focus on the claim of evidence, not the person making the claim
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
The point of the thread is to discuss if there is anything suspicious about the plane. Not to speculate about wild theories. I've deleted another post by Oxy because it just contained similar speculation.

New topics in new threads.
 
1. a great circle connecting [the airport storing this 777-200ER] and [the current MH370 search zone's epicenter] goes smack dab over Kudahuvadhoo, Maldives.
2. multiple residents of Kudahuvadhoo reported a large jumbo jet - white, with a red stripe - go by at 6:15am (local time) on March 8, bearing south-east.
3. 1. and 2. imply a take-off time of 10:30-11:00pm (local time), an overnight crossing of Saudi Arabia, and zero civilization past Kudahuvadhoo.
4. the 777-200ER can cover this range in its sleep.

This great-circle is the only thing I've seen so far that offers a plausible explanation for the multiple eyewitness accounts of a bunch of simple islanders with no reason to lie. It suggests the plane's owners could conceivably be involved in a plan to abduct MH370, and rush a replacement plane out to the site of a fake ocean crash.

My two cents: just like a broken clock is exactly right twice a day, even spittle-intensive axe-grinders sometimes smoke out a real-live fire.
 

Kevin Martin

New Member
See response in next post.

A rather pointless conspiracy theory seems to be making its way through the bowels of the internet which claims that a 'clone' for MH370 is being held by Israel for some unspecified purpose.. but because it's Israel is must be nefarious..:rolleyes:

The video here as well as several of the usual woo forums states that a Boeing 777-2H6(ER), previously registered 9M-MRI, was sold to GA Telesis (who lease as well as dismantle aircraft for parts). It is interesting to note that the same company mid last year disassembled an ex-Malaysian Airlines B-777-200, registration 9M-MRK. In the same article they mention that they also have "another 777-200ER aircraft scheduled for disassembly in August." Anyway, the video implies something suspicious is going on because 9M-MRI is the exact same make and model and airline as MH-370 and therefore the fact it is now in storage in Israel is setting off alarm bells in the minds of the [suspicious]

As it turns out, Malaysian Airlines entire B-777 fleet is up for sale after a decision was made to start a replacement program.

However this particular B-777 was never "owned" my Malaysian Airlines. According to this page they were leasing it from ALAFCO; a Kuwait based leasing company.

This alleged "clone" of MH370 was withdrawn from service in April last year, sold to GA Telesis in October, who re-registered it to N105GT. It has been put into storage for apparent disassembling as mentioned in their July 2013 press release. The page here states that it's last flight took it to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv in November after being stored for a short period of time in France. I would assume after purchasing from ALAFCO, the aircraft is stored there until GA Telesis are ready for it to be flown to the US for disassembly.

It is also worthy to note that GA Telesis have at least 3 other aircraft stored (Down bottom of page under Fleet List heading, click the Whole Fleet tab) so it's certainly not uncommon for them to mothball their aircraft.

So in effect I have been looking for anything in amongst this that looks 'suspicious' and there is none. It doesn't take an IQ of more than room temperature to guess what pre-exiting prejudice spawned this theory.. Short of calling up GA Telesis and asking them what they're doing with N105GT, I think it's safe to assume it's on death row.

Any other takers on this?

:cool:
 
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Kevin Martin

New Member
This post makes a couple critical errors. First, per the Planespotters link provided in the article, Malaysian Airlines MSN 24818 is still owned by Malaysian Airlines and was never acquired by GA Telesis like Malaysian Airlines MSN 24816 indicates. Just because GA Telesis provides a press release identifying a plane as MSN 24818 does not prove a thing. There are no other independent third party confirmation that GA Telesis ever acquired plane MSN 24818.

Secondly, the Planespotters GA Telesis Fleet History link provided in this article does not coincide with GA Telesis press releases on the number of planes GA Telesis has "allegedly" bought and scrapped over the last several years. Planespotters shows that GA Teleisis has only scrapped one plane while GA Telesis press releases state they have scrapped well over a dozen. Thus, either Planespotters or GA Telesis is grossly incorrect and my guess it's the latter.

GA Telesis is a privately held company and most of their operations and financial information is private and not publicly available and verifiable. Just because GA Telesis states something in a press release (e.g., they acquired MSN 24818) does not mean it's true if it is not confirmed by another source. Per Planespotters records, GA Telesis only acquired on Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 and that is MSN 28416.
 
@cjnewson88: if your post was directed at #21, the answer is: yes, of course.

What better way to give yourself the time and space to extract full value from MH370's contents - and then to cover your tracks - than to convince the world it's already at the bottom of an ocean thousands of miles away? With a decoy plane, they're now free to disassemble and discard MH370 at their leisure.

By your logic, we should reject as implausible the idea that crooks fleeing a crime scene would ever want to switch cars.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
@cjnewson88: if your post was directed at #21, the answer is: yes, of course.

What better way to give yourself the time and space to extract full value from MH370's contents - and then to cover your tracks - than to convince the world it's already at the bottom of an ocean thousands of miles away? With a decoy plane, they're now free to disassemble and discard MH370 at their leisure.

By your logic, we should reject as implausible the idea that crooks fleeing a crime scene would ever want to switch cars.

But if the plane were never found, then they have infinite time to do what they want. Your theory makes no sense as there is no ocean crash site, and does not even make any real sense if there was, due to the high likelihood of the different plane being identified. A much simpler plan would be to just steal the plane, and everyone would assume it vanished at sea, as planes do sometime.
 
But if the plane were never found, then they have infinite time to do what they want. Your theory makes no sense as there is no ocean crash site, and does not even make any real sense if there was, due to the high likelihood of the different plane being identified. A much simpler plan would be to just steal the plane, and everyone would assume it vanished at sea, as planes do sometime.

They have infinite time to do what they want under EITHER plan; but under the one I hypothesized, they have both the time AND the reduced suspicion that comes with others having found circumstantial evidence of a crash (black box pings, plus [I'm guessing] hazy images of fuselage sections buried deep in the silt in some future year). If you think about your "much simpler plan" a bit more, I suspect you'll concede that it offers considerably LESS closure for anyone wishing to understand what happened (victims' families and their advocates, for starters); attention would be far more intense around the plane's contents, and around those entities with the means and motive to make it "disappear".

The thread topic is "do we have credible grounds to suspect this so-called 'twin' of MH370?" The fact that a straight line path a) connects this plane's last known location with the centre of the MH370 search zone, and b) is the first thing I've seen which can explain ALL ASPECTS of the Kudahuvadhoo eyewitness accounts (description, location, AND bearing) is, to me, grounds for further investigation. A good cop would not wait for the motive to be known with certainty before following up on this lead.
 
But if the plane were never found, then they have infinite time to do what they want. Your theory makes no sense as there is no ocean crash site, and does not even make any real sense if there was, due to the high likelihood of the different plane being identified. A much simpler plan would be to just steal the plane, and everyone would assume it vanished at sea, as planes do sometime.

Like you, I would apply a much higher squelch to alternative hypotheses if I felt the "official" hypothesis made sense. But it doesn't: the current search site is utterly incompatible with the published Inmarsat arcs (if this now-going-much-faster plane crossed the 8:11 arc north of 20s latitude, then where must it have crossed the 5:11 arc? The answer will surprise you), which makes the official story garbage, and its architects suspects.
 

Pete Tar

Senior Member.
But it doesn't: the current search site is utterly incompatible with the published Inmarsat arcs (if this now-going-much-faster plane crossed the 8:11 arc north of 20s latitude, then where must it have crossed the 5:11 arc? The answer will surprise you), which makes the official story garbage, and its architects suspects.

Can you explain this in more detail, with diagrams if possible?
 
Happy to.

Here are the Inmarsat arcs:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...7a24-ac86-11e3-a06a-e3230a43d6cb_graphic.html

(note original path implies a speed of around 640mph, which agrees reasonably well with published 777-200ER typical cruising speed.)

Now skip forward to April 6, when Ocean Shield detects a ping along the same 8:11, or the "handshake signal #7" arc:
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26956798
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26950387
(note location remains bang on the arc, but now at 20S latitude; if you can find published LONGITUDE on this ping, you're a better searcher than I am; but the implication from the arc in the WaPo map is that it was around 107E.)

The rationale for dramatically changing the search location was that the plane must have been moving FASTER than first thought. I don't know how fast you have to be going to shorten your range by that many hundreds of miles, but published TOP speed is only 680mph, so let's say it had the throttle all the way down.

Now simply start at (20S, 107E), and fly MH370 backwards in time. Remember, you still need to hit the arcs at the right times - and you're going much faster now, per official story.

When I squint at the WaPo chart, it's now north of the equator by 5:11 - and less than an hour from where Malaysian radar had it at 2:15. What'd it do - fly doughnuts for three hours...?
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I assume by FASTER you mean slower?

But I'm not sure what your objection is exactly. We don't know what it did before the 5:11 ping, so what's the problem?

 
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I assume by FASTER you mean slower?

But I'm not sure what your objection is exactly. We don't know what it did before the 5:11 ping, so what's the problem?

The chart you've drawn is made impossible by the rationale given for moving the search so far to the NE: that the plane was going much FASTER than first thought:

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/documents/28032014MH370Update23.pdf

...thereby burning fuel more quickly - enough, so they said, to reduce range (by the distance indicated above? Whatever you say, crackerjack government expert...).

The translation to the chart above is that the distances between the points on the new line need to be materially further apart than those on the old line. Whoever has drawn the line on your map has placed them much CLOSER together, indicating a much SLOWER speed - the opposite of the official story's requirement.

Load up Google Earth. starting at (20s, 107e), draw a line 1920 miles long (the distance MH370 travelled between 5:11 and 8:11 under the original "regular cruising speed" version of the official story). Make sure it crosses the same arcs at the same times (you'll need to head as due north as Indonesian airspace allows). You'll end up at 5n latitude - at the northern tip of Indonesia. And the official story requires the plane to be NORTH of that, because it was going FASTER.

The official story is mutually incompatible with itself.

The black hole between 2:15 and 5:11 - into which you seem content to deposit an arbitrarily large amount of incongruity - was created by the NTSB when they chose to publish their "most probable path" starting at 5:11 only - despite surely having the data available to plot 3:11 and 4:11. I find the suppression in mid-March of data points that would have been deemed academic interpolations at the time - but are in retrospect CRITICAL indicators of a now-odd flight path - to be highly suspicious in and of itself.
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
I suspect there might be a slight disconnect between the actual people running the operation, and the PR people.
 
Well, it's late, so I'll concede it might be "only" spectacular PR incompetence.

It might even be the other way around: it might've gone down at 5:19 instead of 8:19, but some back-office twit(s) managed to convert Inmarsat data from Diego Garcia to Malaysian time twice, or something, and the PR folks have been trying to bafflegab around it ever since, to save the poor sod(s) having to admit to a silly error that set the search back a week. Would explain the Boeing data ceasing by then. And the "missing" 3:11 and 4:11 ping data.

Listen, I'd LOVE it if #21 (with MH370 straight west to DG, and "disconnects" to sell search authenticity to other nations) were to get thoroughly debunked - please do your level best. Its implications are haunting.
 
Can you explain this in more detail, with diagrams if possible?

Attached is a more precise follow-up to your request in #29.

Inputs:
The red path is per NTSB published, and assumed 600mph (validated below).

The orange path starts at current search zone, and assumed 680mph (validated below).

The yellow pins are the Inmarsat locations at 5:11, 6:11, 7:11, and 8:11. It is geosynchronous, but has a slight wobble. (As you can see, the pins are nearly on top of each other, but I wanted to rule out this wobble as a potential source of noise.)

Method:
1. [Inmarsat satellite locations] and [red path] together force [Inmarsat arcs]
2. [Inmarsat arcs] and [search zone] and [680mph] together force [orange path]

Validation of inputs:
The speed of the red path is constrained on both sides: too slow results in arcs too close together, which forces the orange path into Indonesian airspace. Too fast, and the red path not only reaches Indonesia too soon, but leaves no room for the orange path to beat its speed.

The speed of the orange path is also tightly constrained: too slow, and the fuel efficiency doesn't drop vs. original; too fast, and Boeing's published maximum cruising speed of 680mph is exceeded.

Results: the official explanation forces MH370 to be within 20 minutes of IGREX at 5:11. Malaysian military reports MH370 passing IGREX at 2:15. That leaves a 2.5 to 3 hour hour credibility gap.

Validation of results: despite the method making no a priori assumption about the orange path's direction, the solved for direction appears reasonable and intuitive.

Possibilities:
1. MH370 did something odd (loop, landing) between 2:15 and 5:11
2. MH370 crashed much sooner than reported (nearer 5:19)
3. MH370 went somewhere else (e.g. light blue line)

In all three cases, we are being lied to by those feeding us this information. That makes them suspects.

Purple line just documents #21 - one of a million variations of Possibility 3 (the "sun" is where Will & Kate were vacationing on March 8, in case the internets needed another wild theory). While I make no claim, it is plausible to me that the wild swing in estimated location helped buy time to prep the current location. It certainly would have helped sell the idea that the searchers didn't already know where the plane was.

Peer review keenly appreciated. Coordinates/zoom views available on request.

P.S. the orange path happens to begin at what Google Earth seems to think is the deepest point in the Indian Ocean: 7,653m (4.75 miles).
 

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Mick West

Administrator
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Your diagram assumes it flew in a perfectly straight line (great circle) at 680 mph. Please explain why this is necessarily so based on official information. The press release only says it was going faster at the start:

And there is zero to indicate it continued at that speed (or what that speed was), or that it suddenly turned a sharp left the instant it vanished from radar.

The new search area seems just to be an extrapolation from the amount of fuel, and the pings. It seems quite reasonable.

You are basically making multiple assumptions based on your interpretation of the data, and then blaming the data when your assumptions don't line up. It seems vastly more likely that you have an error in your assumptions.
 
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WeedWhacker

Senior Member
The red path is per NTSB published, and assumed 600mph (validated below).
The orange path starts at current search zone, and assumed 680mph (validated below).

Can I ask, why are you using those groundspeeds? Why in "mph" and not in Knots?

Keeping in mind that "mph" traditionally refers to Statute Miles per Hour, whereas "Knots" refer to Nautical Miles per Hour.

Handy conversion: "600mph" = 521 Knots
"680mph" = 591 Knots

Side note, in my experience as an airline pilot, 521 to 591 knots as a groundspeed means VERY strong tailwinds.
 
Can I ask, why are you using those groundspeeds? Why in "mph" and not in Knots?

Keeping in mind that "mph" traditionally refers to Statute Miles per Hour, whereas "Knots" refer to Nautical Miles per Hour.

Handy conversion: "600mph" = 521 Knots
"680mph" = 591 Knots

Side note, in my experience as an airline pilot, 521 to 591 knots as a groundspeed means VERY strong tailwinds.

Thank you for helping validate the speeds. I was doing my best to faithfully reflect published [typical/maximum] cruising speeds of [0.84, 0.89] mach (whose conversions are altitude-sensitive, I recognize) - and corroborating by observing both the NTSB-indicated original speed, and the solved-for revised path - but your input is exactly the pressure-testing I was hoping for.

The attached tests sensitivity of significantly reducing the speed.

Instead of [original, revised] speeds of [600, 680] mph = [521, 591] kts, I've overplotted [green, yellow] the solution if we reduce the speeds to [500, 600] mph = [434, 521] kts. As you'll see, the plane at 5:11 (northernmost point of the yellow line) is still within 40 minutes of Malaysian radar.

It's the new crash site that makes the 8:19 crash time infeasible - the speed isn't a critical factor.
 

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WeedWhacker

Senior Member
I was doing my best to faithfully reflect published [typical/maximum] cruising speeds of [0/84, 0.89] mach (whose conversions are altitude-sensitive, I recognize)

Yes, they are....altitude specific.

BUT, Mach .84 is typical for a B-777 Though, perhaps at the high end of a "normal" cruise speed envelope). Mach .89 is not.
 
Your diagram assumes it flew in a perfectly straight line (great circle) at 680 mph. Please explain why this is necessarily so based on official information. The press release only says it was going faster at the start:

And there is zero to indicate it continued at that speed (or what that speed was), or that it suddenly turned a sharp left the instant it vanished from radar.

The new search area seems just to be an extrapolation from the amount of fuel, and the pings. It seems quite reasonable.

You are basically making multiple assumptions based on your interpretation of the data, and then blaming the data when your assumptions don't line up. It seems vastly more likely that you have an error in your assumptions.

It had to be going significantly faster for a majority of the flight, or range could not have been reduced so dramatically. I understand airline pilots are on this thread: I invite them to estimate average speed increase over the entire flight's duration required to knock 800 knots of range off of what was originally estimated to be a 3,500 knot flight (23% reduction in range).

The critical aspect making the official story infeasible is their attempt to move the crash location dramatically closer, without changing the crash time at all; the path you claim has been arbitrarily chosen to be a great-circle was in fact (as I had indicated) solved for, given assumed speed and the Inmarsat arcs (the fact that it turned out to be a straight-line route merely corroborates the assumptions). Per #38, sensitivity testing now shows speed to be of secondary concern.

Yes, the pilot could have flown a zig-zag or corkscrew path from 5:11 to 8:11 across the Indian Ocean. Or flew nowhere near final destination, made a sharp turn, and approached it at a snail's pace. I apply Occam's razor to those ridiculous paths.

You and I agree an odd flight path between 2:15 and 5:11 is quite possible. This would be (dis)proven by the (curiously suppressed) Inmarsat ping data from that time range. Why haven't they released all Inmarsat ping data?
 
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