MH17 Malaysian 777 Carrying 295 People Shot Down Over Ukraine

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http://news.sky.com/story/1302864/malaysian-plane-shot-down-with-295-on-board
 
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Pretty much a cluster**** to try and figure out exactly what happened for now. The plane should have been too high for MANPADS to shoot down (Conspiracy theory prediction: they'll use confusion about the altitude of MH370 to cloud this point here as well), but both the Ukraine and Russia have SA 11 Buk missile launchers that could handle that altitude, and Russia has modern versions that could have hit the plane from inside Russia. In addition to both governments, it's one of those weapons that Russia's been known to give out to friendly groups, and there's been all kinds of vehicles stolen from the Ukraine military (their security had fallen apart enough at one point that somebody took a tank for a joy ride and they didn't immediately notice), so its possible rebels could have gotten one.

Rebels are denying involvement through Russian channels and saying they have no surface-to-air capabilities, but apparently this is in the same general area that two Ukranian military planes were shot down and a third fired on.

Until we know more, basically, anyone in the area could have done this, either intentionally or unintentionally as happened with Iran Air 655. My personal belief is that it was rebels using either Russian or captured equipment, and I doubt it was intentional.
 
Wow this doesn't sound good for Ukraine.

It very well could have been the Russians' mistake. Ukrainian rebel commanders are already denying responsibility...and the airliner was leaving Ukraine airspace, about to enter Russian airspace....
 
It very well could have been the Russians' mistake. Ukrainian rebel commanders are already denying responsibility...and the airliner was leaving Ukraine airspace, about to enter Russian airspace....

True, of course I don't know what happened, but I've got the feeling it's not good for Ukraine no matter who did it.
 
It very well could have been the Russians' mistake. Ukrainian rebel commanders are already denying responsibility...and the airliner was leaving Ukraine airspace, about to enter Russian airspace....
I highly doubt the Russians would do such a thing over Ukrainian air space. My guess is it was the Russian separatists and not the Russian or Ukranian Governments. I think it’s far more likely it was rebel forces in eastern Ukraine trying to get the Russian back involved
 
True, of course I don't know what happened, but I've got the feeling it's not good for Ukraine no matter who did it.
I totally agree with your assessment David. Either way, this will undoubtedly bring more tension to the region
 
Pretty much a cluster**** to try and figure out exactly what happened for now. The plane should have been too high for MANPADS to shoot down (Conspiracy theory prediction: they'll use confusion about the altitude of MH370 to cloud this point here as well), but both the Ukraine and Russia have SA 11 Buk missile launchers that could handle that altitude, and Russia has modern versions that could have hit the plane from inside Russia. In addition to both governments, it's one of those weapons that Russia's been known to give out to friendly groups, and there's been all kinds of vehicles stolen from the Ukraine military (their security had fallen apart enough at one point that somebody took a tank for a joy ride and they didn't immediately notice), so its possible rebels could have gotten one.

Rebels are denying involvement through Russian channels and saying they have no surface-to-air capabilities, but apparently this is in the same general area that two Ukranian military planes were shot down and a third fired on.

Until we know more, basically, anyone in the area could have done this, either intentionally or unintentionally as happened with Iran Air 655. My personal belief is that it was rebels using either Russian or captured equipment, and I doubt it was intentional.
I agree, except for you you doubting it was intentional. How else would a SAM get fired, by accident, I doubt it. Maybe there was another aircraft in the area they were targetting but the missile locked onto this aircraft. Who knows, but the act of fire it can only be intentional..
 
I agree, except for you you doubting it was intentional. How else would a SAM get fired, by accident, I doubt it. Maybe there was another aircraft in the area they were targetting but the missile locked onto this aircraft. Who knows, but the act of fire it can only be intentional..
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.

Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
 
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.

Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
Thats make sense, I must've missed that. My thoughts exactly
 
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.

Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
One would think these rebels would have an iPhone handy, so that they can see who's flying above them. So mistakes like this don't happen
 
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.
Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...

Yeah, this was my intent in comparing it to Iran Air 655. The missile that shot down 655 was certainly launched intentionally, and it hit its selected target, but there was never intent to destroy a civilian aircraft.


One would think these rebels would have an iPhone handy, so that they can see who's flying above them. So mistakes like this don't happen

Smart phones are not as widespread in Eastern Europe as they are in the west. This also assumes the app works in their country (most aren't available in all markets and many will disable themselves if you're in those areas), that the local infrastructure was sufficiently intact and hasn't been damaged in the many months of fighting, and that the government hasn't been shutting down their cell phones. There's also a high chance rebels would have ditched cell phones that could be used to track their location or tapped to intercept their communications.

On top of that, if it was rebels, they're probably untrained in operating the weapon they were using, just adding to the number of ways they could screw up.
 
Are commercial planes equipped with radar that tracks incoming threats like a SAM, so they can take evasive measures. Or do the pilots never know what hit them?
 
Are commercial planes equipped with radar that tracks incoming threats like a SAM, so they can take evasive measures. Or do the pilots never know what hit them?
It barely matters if they were. A SAM launcher is designed to destroy a fighter plane. That's a small target that's equipped with flares and chaff and countermeasures, designed to be harder to detect and capable of maneuvering and acceleration far above and beyond any civilian aircraft, not to mention armed to fight back.

An airliner is utterly defenseless against even the most low end anti-aircraft weapons, even if they can see it coming.
 
Buk system isn't shoulder held, we're talking about one of Russia's most sophisticated missile defense systems. It's used to defend against Tomahawks, smart bombs, missile attacks, and air threats.
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Is this something the rebels would have or even know how to operate?
 
Is this something the rebels would have or even know how to operate?

This is the $64,000,000 question to hand, at the moment.

Ukraine denies responsibility. The jet was leaving Ukraine airspace, and about to enter Russian airspace.

I will let these facts dangle for a bit......

(Is this Putin's "Waterloo"?)
 
This is the $64,000,000 question to hand, at the moment.

Ukraine denies responsibility. The jet was leaving Ukraine airspace, and about to enter Russian airspace.

I will let these facts dangle for a bit......

(Is this Putin's "Waterloo"?)
Is there a way for local intelligence or radar stations to have been able to see it happening in real time at their radar stations. I mean when a 1500lb missile gets fired aren't they able to see where it originated from.. and track it
 
Related and yet somewhat under reported:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28345039

External Quote:

A Ukrainian security spokesman has accused Russia's air force of shooting down one of its jets while it was on a mission over Ukrainian territory.

Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council, said an Su-25 ground attack plane was downed on Wednesday evening.

Russia's defence ministry called the accusation "absurd", Russian state media reported.

Rebels in eastern Ukraine say they shot down two Su-25 jets on Wednesday.

Its possible they (the separatists ) just made a huge, clusterf**k of a mistake. Probably a lot of trigger happy lads with poor training in that group.
 
We will see. U.S. intelligence/monitoring satellites?

Of course, much that goes on in that regard will be behind the scenes. Only unclassified capabilities will be made public.

AND yes, the SU-25 that was downed just the previous night...certainly related.

(I probably have been watching too much "24: Live Another Day"....can Kiefer Sutherland ever speak a line without sounding out of breath??).
 
This is the $64,000,000 question to hand, at the moment.

Ukraine denies responsibility. The jet was leaving Ukraine airspace, and about to enter Russian airspace.

I will let these facts dangle for a bit......

(Is this Putin's "Waterloo"?)

The crash site town, Grabovo, (which Google Earth takes as "Hrabovo") is 20 miles (33 km) from the Russian border. The 50 km figure given would be how far it had to do before reaching the border.
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Certainly in range of Russian missiles.
 
Buk system isn't shoulder held, we're talking about one of Russia's most sophisticated missile defense systems. It's used to defend against Tomahawks, smart bombs, missile attacks, and air threats.
67ed64ed0061adc73311dfdf31b89702.jpg

Is this something the rebels would have or even know how to operate?


External Quote:
A key question now is whether the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have access to the kind of missile systems that could reach a plane flying at high altitude.
The separatists have denied having any such systems. But the Associated Press is reporting that one of its journalists saw a launcher that resembled a Russian BUK system - the kind the Ukrainian goverment says carried out the strike - near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier today. The Russian network TV Zvezda, the news network for the Russian military, did report that a Buk fell to separatist hands on June 29th.


Several of the other missile launch systems possessed by the separatists can also reach considerable height - for example the 9K38, can reach up to 11,000 feet.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ne-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html


I fear this will quickly devolve into a flood of misinfo, disinfo and accusations with no real resolution or accountability...
 
External Quote:
A key question now is whether the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have access to the kind of missile systems that could reach a plane flying at high altitude.
The separatists have denied having any such systems. But the Associated Press is reporting that one of its journalists saw a launcher that resembled a Russian BUK system - the kind the Ukrainian goverment says carried out the strike - near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier today. The Russian network TV Zvezda, the news network for the Russian military, did report that a Buk fell to separatist hands on June 29th.


Several of the other missile launch systems possessed by the separatists can also reach considerable height - for example the 9K38, can reach up to 11,000 feet.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ne-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html


I fear this will quickly devolve into a flood of misinfo, disinfo and accusations with no real resolution or accountability...
I was watching FOX news and they said Obama was actually on the phone with Putin when this incident happened. Putin alerted the President that a plane crashed while Obama was trying to negotiate a deal with Putin about the region to negate sanctions.
 
The only strategic reason for any side to knowingly shoot down a passenger airline is to try and blame another side or bring in sanctions. Most likely just a tragic mistake.
 
External Quote:
A key question now is whether the pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine have access to the kind of missile systems that could reach a plane flying at high altitude.
The separatists have denied having any such systems. But the Associated Press is reporting that one of its journalists saw a launcher that resembled a Russian BUK system - the kind the Ukrainian goverment says carried out the strike - near the eastern Ukrainian town of Snizhne earlier today. The Russian network TV Zvezda, the news network for the Russian military, did report that a Buk fell to separatist hands on June 29th.


Several of the other missile launch systems possessed by the separatists can also reach considerable height - for example the 9K38, can reach up to 11,000 feet.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ne-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html


I fear this will quickly devolve into a flood of misinfo, disinfo and accusations with no real resolution or accountability...
Not too mention, the russian separatists also when online and claimed they just shot down a Ukranian Cargo plane literally when the Malaysian plane went missing, as per Shepard on Fox news. Then he reported it was taken down from their site or FB page, (I forget), and said it was an error. So it seems the russian separatist might have already claimed responsibility...
 
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