MH17 Malaysian 777 Carrying 295 People Shot Down Over Ukraine

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Hevach

Senior Member.
Pretty much a cluster**** to try and figure out exactly what happened for now. The plane should have been too high for MANPADS to shoot down (Conspiracy theory prediction: they'll use confusion about the altitude of MH370 to cloud this point here as well), but both the Ukraine and Russia have SA 11 Buk missile launchers that could handle that altitude, and Russia has modern versions that could have hit the plane from inside Russia. In addition to both governments, it's one of those weapons that Russia's been known to give out to friendly groups, and there's been all kinds of vehicles stolen from the Ukraine military (their security had fallen apart enough at one point that somebody took a tank for a joy ride and they didn't immediately notice), so its possible rebels could have gotten one.

Rebels are denying involvement through Russian channels and saying they have no surface-to-air capabilities, but apparently this is in the same general area that two Ukranian military planes were shot down and a third fired on.

Until we know more, basically, anyone in the area could have done this, either intentionally or unintentionally as happened with Iran Air 655. My personal belief is that it was rebels using either Russian or captured equipment, and I doubt it was intentional.
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
Wow this doesn't sound good for Ukraine.
It very well could have been the Russians' mistake. Ukrainian rebel commanders are already denying responsibility...and the airliner was leaving Ukraine airspace, about to enter Russian airspace....
 

David

Member
It very well could have been the Russians' mistake. Ukrainian rebel commanders are already denying responsibility...and the airliner was leaving Ukraine airspace, about to enter Russian airspace....
True, of course I don't know what happened, but I've got the feeling it's not good for Ukraine no matter who did it.
 

Jason

Senior Member
It very well could have been the Russians' mistake. Ukrainian rebel commanders are already denying responsibility...and the airliner was leaving Ukraine airspace, about to enter Russian airspace....
I highly doubt the Russians would do such a thing over Ukrainian air space. My guess is it was the Russian separatists and not the Russian or Ukranian Governments. I think it’s far more likely it was rebel forces in eastern Ukraine trying to get the Russian back involved
 

Jason

Senior Member
True, of course I don't know what happened, but I've got the feeling it's not good for Ukraine no matter who did it.
I totally agree with your assessment David. Either way, this will undoubtedly bring more tension to the region
 

Jason

Senior Member
Pretty much a cluster**** to try and figure out exactly what happened for now. The plane should have been too high for MANPADS to shoot down (Conspiracy theory prediction: they'll use confusion about the altitude of MH370 to cloud this point here as well), but both the Ukraine and Russia have SA 11 Buk missile launchers that could handle that altitude, and Russia has modern versions that could have hit the plane from inside Russia. In addition to both governments, it's one of those weapons that Russia's been known to give out to friendly groups, and there's been all kinds of vehicles stolen from the Ukraine military (their security had fallen apart enough at one point that somebody took a tank for a joy ride and they didn't immediately notice), so its possible rebels could have gotten one.

Rebels are denying involvement through Russian channels and saying they have no surface-to-air capabilities, but apparently this is in the same general area that two Ukranian military planes were shot down and a third fired on.

Until we know more, basically, anyone in the area could have done this, either intentionally or unintentionally as happened with Iran Air 655. My personal belief is that it was rebels using either Russian or captured equipment, and I doubt it was intentional.
I agree, except for you you doubting it was intentional. How else would a SAM get fired, by accident, I doubt it. Maybe there was another aircraft in the area they were targetting but the missile locked onto this aircraft. Who knows, but the act of fire it can only be intentional..
 

BombDr

Senior Member.
I agree, except for you you doubting it was intentional. How else would a SAM get fired, by accident, I doubt it. Maybe there was another aircraft in the area they were targetting but the missile locked onto this aircraft. Who knows, but the act of fire it can only be intentional..
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.

Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
 

BombDr

Senior Member.
This will of course induce a flurry of videos on Youtube this evening all stating some hidden hand and directly linking it to MH370, in some factless yet dramatic manner...
 

Jason

Senior Member
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.

Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
Thats make sense, I must've missed that. My thoughts exactly
 

Jason

Senior Member
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.

Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
One would think these rebels would have an iPhone handy, so that they can see who's flying above them. So mistakes like this don't happen
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
I'm understanding Hevach's assertion to mean that it was intentionally shot down, (by parties unknown) but mistaken for another aircraft.
Shot down 'in good faith', if such a phrase makes sense - un-friendly fire...
Yeah, this was my intent in comparing it to Iran Air 655. The missile that shot down 655 was certainly launched intentionally, and it hit its selected target, but there was never intent to destroy a civilian aircraft.


One would think these rebels would have an iPhone handy, so that they can see who's flying above them. So mistakes like this don't happen
Smart phones are not as widespread in Eastern Europe as they are in the west. This also assumes the app works in their country (most aren't available in all markets and many will disable themselves if you're in those areas), that the local infrastructure was sufficiently intact and hasn't been damaged in the many months of fighting, and that the government hasn't been shutting down their cell phones. There's also a high chance rebels would have ditched cell phones that could be used to track their location or tapped to intercept their communications.

On top of that, if it was rebels, they're probably untrained in operating the weapon they were using, just adding to the number of ways they could screw up.
 

Jason

Senior Member
Are commercial planes equipped with radar that tracks incoming threats like a SAM, so they can take evasive measures. Or do the pilots never know what hit them?
 

Hevach

Senior Member.
Are commercial planes equipped with radar that tracks incoming threats like a SAM, so they can take evasive measures. Or do the pilots never know what hit them?
It barely matters if they were. A SAM launcher is designed to destroy a fighter plane. That's a small target that's equipped with flares and chaff and countermeasures, designed to be harder to detect and capable of maneuvering and acceleration far above and beyond any civilian aircraft, not to mention armed to fight back.

An airliner is utterly defenseless against even the most low end anti-aircraft weapons, even if they can see it coming.
 

Jason

Senior Member
Buk system isn't shoulder held, we're talking about one of Russia's most sophisticated missile defense systems. It's used to defend against Tomahawks, smart bombs, missile attacks, and air threats.

Is this something the rebels would have or even know how to operate?
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
Is this something the rebels would have or even know how to operate?
This is the $64,000,000 question to hand, at the moment.

Ukraine denies responsibility. The jet was leaving Ukraine airspace, and about to enter Russian airspace.

I will let these facts dangle for a bit......

(Is this Putin's "Waterloo"?)
 

Jason

Senior Member
This is the $64,000,000 question to hand, at the moment.

Ukraine denies responsibility. The jet was leaving Ukraine airspace, and about to enter Russian airspace.

I will let these facts dangle for a bit......

(Is this Putin's "Waterloo"?)
Is there a way for local intelligence or radar stations to have been able to see it happening in real time at their radar stations. I mean when a 1500lb missile gets fired aren't they able to see where it originated from.. and track it
 

SR1419

Senior Member.
Related and yet somewhat under reported:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28345039


Its possible they (the separatists ) just made a huge, clusterf**k of a mistake. Probably a lot of trigger happy lads with poor training in that group.
 

WeedWhacker

Senior Member
We will see. U.S. intelligence/monitoring satellites?

Of course, much that goes on in that regard will be behind the scenes. Only unclassified capabilities will be made public.

AND yes, the SU-25 that was downed just the previous night...certainly related.

(I probably have been watching too much "24: Live Another Day"....can Kiefer Sutherland ever speak a line without sounding out of breath??).
 

Mick West

Administrator
Staff member
This is the $64,000,000 question to hand, at the moment.

Ukraine denies responsibility. The jet was leaving Ukraine airspace, and about to enter Russian airspace.

I will let these facts dangle for a bit......

(Is this Putin's "Waterloo"?)
The crash site town, Grabovo, (which Google Earth takes as "Hrabovo") is 20 miles (33 km) from the Russian border. The 50 km figure given would be how far it had to do before reaching the border.


Certainly in range of Russian missiles.
 

SR1419

Senior Member.
Buk system isn't shoulder held, we're talking about one of Russia's most sophisticated missile defense systems. It's used to defend against Tomahawks, smart bombs, missile attacks, and air threats.

Is this something the rebels would have or even know how to operate?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ne-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html


I fear this will quickly devolve into a flood of misinfo, disinfo and accusations with no real resolution or accountability...
 

Jason

Senior Member
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ne-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html


I fear this will quickly devolve into a flood of misinfo, disinfo and accusations with no real resolution or accountability...
I was watching FOX news and they said Obama was actually on the phone with Putin when this incident happened. Putin alerted the President that a plane crashed while Obama was trying to negotiate a deal with Putin about the region to negate sanctions.
 

Soulfly

Banned
Banned
The only strategic reason for any side to knowingly shoot down a passenger airline is to try and blame another side or bring in sanctions. Most likely just a tragic mistake.
 

Jason

Senior Member
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ne-crashes-on-Ukraine-Russia-border-live.html


I fear this will quickly devolve into a flood of misinfo, disinfo and accusations with no real resolution or accountability...
Not too mention, the russian separatists also when online and claimed they just shot down a Ukranian Cargo plane literally when the Malaysian plane went missing, as per Shepard on Fox news. Then he reported it was taken down from their site or FB page, (I forget), and said it was an error. So it seems the russian separatist might have already claimed responsibility...
 
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