Germanwings Airbus Crash: Factual Analysis

[JFDee]

Question to pilots:

Is there something like an automated response to an air pressure drop in the cabin/cockpit?
Or is pilot action required to initiate a descent like the one that we are seeing?

Anyway, my first guess here would be (sudden) loss of conciousness.

 

[Mick West]

Crash location seems to be 44°16'49.04"N, 6°26'19.11"E

So it looks it it continued in a straight line:

 

[Hevach]

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slat...re_more_plane_crashes_now_than_before_or.html

2015 is on track to be the deadliest year of air travel since... uh, 2014 apparently. The downward trend seems intact:

2014 had the fewest incidents ever, but because there were several crashes with high body counts the fatalities were the highest since 2005, but still lower than almost every year before 2005.

2015's off to a slightly worse start, but still isn't on track to break the curve, let alone return to 90's or earlier levels.

 

[derwoodii]

Witnesses says engine noise odd or different thou source account maybe poor

http://www.smh.com.au/world/french-...re-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o&sa=D&usg=ALhdy28zsr6qiq

And then he heard an unusual sound.

"It was strange," he told local newspaper Le Dauphine Libere. "I'm used to planes going overhead, but not like that.

"It was low; it was really low. Normally if it's low it's a military plane. I couldn't see because of clouds, but from the noise I could tell it wasn't a military plane. I would have said it was trying to keep its altitude." Seconds later the Germanwings flight smashed into the ground, killing all on board.

"I can't say for certain whether it clipped the peak of the mountain because you don't hear. The hills muffle the sound," said Bernard.

Emile Gall, also below the clouds in the village of Seyne, did not see the plane either. "But I heard it. I heard it flying really low."

She, too, thought that it was a military plane. "I said to myself: 'They are so annoying, these planes which fly through the valley.' Then I heard a funny noise, like an engine misfiring. Then I heard a big muffled sound. But it wasn't that of a plane going through the sound barrier."

It wasn't until she switched on her television, she told France Info, that she realised what she had heard.

Evelyne Bayle, who lives in Vernet, saw and heard the crash. There was, she said, "a real racket from the engine".

But the noise was not normal.

"It was really loud. A bit like the noise when you set off an avalanche or a rock slide.

"It was very noisy. After, there was an impact and an explosion. Maybe it was the kerosene which blew up."

Alpine community of Seyne Les Alpes is near where tour de france bike ride often pass by


speculating yes but this best so far & far better than CT nerve gas Illuminati etc etc

http://www.pprune.org/8915324-post370.html

I've said it on page 4 and I'll say it again:-

Normal electrical power appears to have been working as the transponder and associated ADSB was on
No emergency 7700 set
No Mayday call
374 kts GS at impact suggests around 330 Kts IAS
3,500 fpm descent indicates an open descent with speedbrakes.

So, a decompression event occurred at FL380, the crew started the Aircraft down but then somehow ( Oxy system failed, injured etc ) became incapacitated and the Aircraft continued until it flew into the ground.

 

[tom161]

Hi I fly with my dad who was the saftey officer for the largest base in the world for us air force. Also a vietnam fighter pilot with 68 missions. Altitude is saftey when flying towards or over mountains. At the first sign of trouble you divert and do not continue on towards .mountains. at 38,0000 feet they could have diverted to an alternate airfield. The last thing you do is continue towards mountains. When approaching mountains you gain altitude enough to glide out of them if you have a problem. You cant be 99% right when flying cause the 1% will do you in. Dont know why any pilot would continue towards mountains if they had a problem. Even I know that, will have to see what recorders show.

 

[Mick West]

Hi I fly with my dad who was the saftey officer for the largest base in the world for us air force. Also a vietnam fighter pilot with 68 missions. Altitude is saftey when flying towards or over mountains. At the first sign of trouble you divert and do not continue on towards .mountains. at 38,0000 feet they could have diverted to an alternate airfield. The last thing you do is continue towards mountains. When approaching mountains you gain altitude enough to glide out of them if you have a problem. You cant be 99% right when flying cause the 1% will do you in. Dont know why any pilot would continue towards mountains if they had a problem. Even I know that, will have to see what recorders show.

I agree. CNN says the gradual descent indicates the pilot was in control - but their descent started very close to Marseille and Toulon-Hyères airports, and you would have expected them to divert.

All speculation though, hopefully the black box will tell us what happened.

 

[WeedWhacker]

Question to pilots:

Is there something like an automated response to an air pressure drop in the cabin/cockpit?
Or is pilot action required to initiate a descent like the one that we are seeing?

Good questions.

Firstly, a sudden loss of pressurization ("explosive decompression") for instance? Such an event is not "subtle". (Think of your ears, as the pressure changes...it's quite noticeable).

Modern airliners will sound an alert when cabin pressure exceeds approximately ~14,000 feet. Of course there are "slow" decompressions, and the aforementioned "explosive" version. In either case, pilots are trained to immediately don oxygen masks, establish communication (with each other) and then with ATC (Air Traffic Control). Further procedures are outlined in the 'QRH', or Quick Reference Handbook that each pilot has ready access to.

One of the first considerations after an "explosive" decompression is to ascertain structural integrity. This is done by noting whether or not any "Doors" lights are illuminated (whether Cargo, or Entry doors). If no "Doors" lights, then the Emergency Descent is initiated at max speed (Mmo/Vmo). A "Doors" light indicates possible structural compromise, so the Emergency Descent is conducted by holding the LAST indicated airspeed....no faster.

Having typed all of that? It is too soon to speculate on this. But? This sort of event reminds me all too tragically of PanAm 103, over Lockerbie, Scotland. I cannot speak to causation until the Flight Recorders are recovered, and pre-mature speculation is hazardous anyway.

 

[TWCobra]

Not enough info yet for any informed speculation. (We say don't speculate but everyone does).

Here is what we do know.

1. Descent began about a minute after reaching cruise altltitude.

2. Average of about 4000 feet/min descent. This is about what you would expect with speedbrake extended and thrust idle. Ie the descent appears controlled and not in a stalled condition.

3. No distress call or any radio call. (Troubling considering the amount of time available)

4. The crash appears to have occurred at moderate to high speed.

For the record, the drill for a depressurisation event mandates levelling off at the higher of 10000 feet or safety altitude. Obviously that didn't occur here as the crash site is at 6000 AMSL.

They didn't say which of the flight recorders was recovered. Either, if in reasonable condition should give investigators solid information as to the cause.

 

[Whitebeard]

They didn't say which of the flight recorders was recovered. Either, if in reasonable condition should give investigators solid information as to the cause.

Most reports say it is the CVR
http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...k-box-found-as-investigators-reach-crash-site

French air investigators are urgently examining a black box cockpit voice recorder (CVR) from a Germanwings Airbus A-320 to try to solve the mystery of why the aircraft crashed into a mountain in the southern Alps, killing all 150 people on board.

Although I'm watching reports on BBC News24, and they are saying FDR in the report they are showing every 15 minutes. But the BBC website currently just says 'Black Box Recorder'

 

[JFDee]

In either case, pilots are trained to immediately don oxygen masks, establish communication (with each other) and then with ATC (Air Traffic Control).

So I take it that the descent was initiated manually, the speed obviously not increased which could point to a possible structure damage if there was really a decompression.
The deep sound that was described by witnesses might have been caused by a hole in the fuselage, with the airstream being disturbed, creating vibrations or even resonance.

It looks like there was no further recognizable change in the plane's state; no (manual) steering, no communication, no
changes in transponder or frequency settings.

Next question:
Do pilots use an independent source of oxygen compared to the cabin? Is there any regulation regarding this?

I admit that I'm speculating but can't help it, and I'm sure everyone else ponders the "how" question. I don't feel it is wrong to consider it in a rational way.

 

[TWCobra]

Do pilots use an independent source of oxygen compared to the cabin? Is there any regulation regarding this?

Yes. Separate oxy bottles and masks with pressure regulators

I have been going of the FR24 data of the flight. I have a very bad feeling.

This aircraft descended in a straight line towards the mountains at VMO+5 knots or at a constant Indicated speed of 355 knots +/- 5 knots.

I know of no autopilot mode that will allow that speed and the average rate of descent achieved.

If the pilot were incapacitated, say by a depressurisation with the autopilot on; we would have had another Helios accident where the the auto-pilot would have leveled off at the selected altitude, continued to Dusseldorf and entered a holding pattern till fuel exhaustion.

This aircraft did none of the things associated with the Airbus Emergency Descent procedure which involves initiating a descent via the autopilot (manually if you really have to but not recommended because it is easy to get close to a stall), selecting an altitude to descend to, turning off the airway to avoid traffic below you and setting a suitable speed for descent allowing for possible damage to the aircraft.

Instead it shows every sign of being hand flown into the mountains with the autopilot disengaged.

Reasons: Incompetence. Suicide. Terrorism. Take your pick.

I really do hope I am way wrong here.

 

[AltoidSBS]

Apparently one pilot left the cockpit for some reason and was locked out as the plane descended.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/w...eakingNews&contentID=31597569&pgtype=Homepage

 

[Dechelski]

So what do we think caused the quick decent? I've just had a look on FlightRadar and it looks like the plane starts to lose altitude just as soon as it crosses land. It descends from FL380 until it reaches its final resting place. My only confusion is that within the same distance it travelled whilst descending, it could have reached Marseille Provence Airport, Nice Cote d'Azur Airport and Turin Cuneo Levaldigi Airport.

According to FlightRadar, descent started at 09.29am and ended at 09.41am = 12 minutes. Other news sources are claiming that the descent only lasted 8 minutes. Either way, lets look at possibilities;

- Complete Engine Failure - (although I was sure that a plane could glide for 250 miles given the right conditions)???
- Decompression, again after a quick decent you would think that some form of radio contact would be made with ATC???
- Pitot tubes becoming frozen - although the weather conditions were reportedly good and visibility and horizon points could have been made?

Not conspiracy, but enough to encourage healthy pondering... Thoughts?

 

[WeedWhacker]

Reasons: Incompetence. Suicide. Terrorism. Take your pick.

The last two out of those three also crossed my mind. (EgyptAir 990 is pertinent?).

 

[WeedWhacker]

Apparently the recovered CVR files are shedding some light on what might have happened......

Apparently one pilot left the cockpit for some reason and was locked out as the plane descended.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/w...eakingNews&contentID=31597569&pgtype=Homepage

I find "suicide-by-airplane" (IF it is indeed the case here) to be reprehensible.

Knowing about post-9/11 features (which I will not discuss in an open Forum)...makes this fully plausible....disgusting, but plausible.

 

[TWCobra]

I went through the figures/systems again last night and came up again with this scenario.

The aircraft looks to have been hand flown all the way down.

If what the NYT is reporting is true, we may have another EgyptAir/Silkair on our hands.

Speaking as a pilot, this is actually the worst possible outcome.

 

[TEEJ]

yeah I think he pasted the wrong link in http://www.davidicke.com/forum/showthread.php?t=291723
Try that one.

This guy is talking about fighter jets being alongside: http://jimstone.is/a320crash.html
I think he might just be REALLY EXAGGERATING This account:

I wasn't afraid. My father thought it was a fighter jet but we couldn't see any

from here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/566154/Germanwings-4U9525-plane-crash-French-Alps-witness

There was a jet fighter scrambled from Orange airbase. The Quick Reaction Alert Dassault Mirage 2000 was scrambled at 1050 CET (0950 GMT). Image of the Mirage 2000 being scrambled.

http://pics-aeronef.discutfree.com/t7882p190-mirage-2000-serie-de-1111-a-1200

 

[MikeC]

Latest news is that there is clear audio evidence of the co-pilot being locked out of the cockpit and trying to "batter" his way in.

Oh dear.....

Regardless of the "why" this happened I come back to thinking about people who had perhaps 8 minutes pretty much sure they were going to die.....it is not a pleasant thought.

 

[Whitebeard]

Question for the pilots and air transport types here.

Is there any scenario where the pilot could leave the cockpit for some reason, may be a visit to the kazzi (toilet / John / heads / insert your local colloquialism here). Then while his out a situation develop that means the co-pilot can't leave the controls to let him in? How are the cockpit doors locked? bolt on the inside, swipe card, key?

Just running various ideas through the old noggin.

edit - the BBC are saying the reports of a pilot leaving the flight deck are 'unconfirmed'

 

[appletini]

Question for the pilots and air transport types here.

Is there any scenario where the pilot could leave the cockpit for some reason, may be a visit to the kazzi (toilet / John / heads / insert your local colloquialism here). Then while his out a situation develop that means the co-pilot can't leave the controls to let him in? How are the cockpit doors locked? bolt on the inside, swipe card, key?

Just running various ideas through the old noggin.

edit - the BBC are saying the reports of a pilot leaving the flight deck are 'unconfirmed'

I'm not a pilot, but the system is designed to let the pilot in after a certain amount of time, just for reasons like incapacitation. The only scenario I can think of where it wouldn't work would be a deliberate action by the remaining pilot in the cockpit.

 

[Whitebeard]

Ok next question for the aviation types

As far as I can tell most Airbus products (if not all) have a 'glass cockpit', I know the flight system is at least triple redundant, but... is the cockpit door locking system part of the main flight systems or a separate one? and is there any chance that a power failure, or systems crash would effect the locking mechanism?

 

[MikeC]

I'm not a pilot, but the system is designed to let the pilot in after a certain amount of time, just for reasons like incapacitation. The only scenario I can think of where it wouldn't work would be a deliberate action by the remaining pilot in the cockpit.

Yes the pilot inside the cockpit can lock out anyone outside, even if they do have "the code" - see here - I wonder if hte "Australian pilot" quoted is someone on here??

 

[TWCobra]

I hope you guys understand that pilots would prefer not to go into details about security procedures on public forums.

Suffice to say that the contingencies are covered, except in this case. That will probably be subject to high level review and changes made.

It is no secret on this forum that I regard the MH370 incident to be of a very similar nature.

 

[TWCobra]

Yes the pilot inside the cockpit can lock out anyone outside, even if they do have "the code" - see here - I wonder if hte "Australian pilot" quoted is someone on here??

Not me. Wrong aircraft.

 

[MikeC]

If both these are found to be deliberate I wonder if pilots will not be allowed to be alone in the cockpit in the future - if one leaves then a Flight Attendant (or 3rd crew or dead heading...) has to be there...??

 

[appletini]

If both these are found to be deliberate I wonder if pilots will not be allowed to be alone in the cockpit in the future - if one leaves then a Flight Attendant (or 3rd crew or dead heading...) has to be there...??

Someone may correct me if I'm wrong but I believe this is already enforced in the U.S., which seems logical given how sturdy the doors are after 9/11.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/fli...-could-plane-cockpits-be-too-secure-16611747/

 

[Whitebeard]

I hope you guys understand that pilots would prefer not to go into details about security procedures on public forums.

Suffice to say that the contingencies are covered, except in this case. That will probably be subject to high level review and changes made.

oh understand that fully mate, just running through some scenarios in my head that could explain a locked out pilot without the obvious one you mentioned.

I noticed that a while back there was at least one case of a faulty cockpit door on an Air India 787, and was wondering if something similar could have happened here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22528431

An Air India flight was forced to land after the pilot was locked out of the cockpit during a toilet break, the airline says.

He was unable to gain access to the cockpit because of a jammed door.

Flight AI 403, which was traveling from Delhi to Bangalore, was diverted to Bhopal Airport on Monday.

The airline has been plagued by financial difficulties in recent years, with its 787 Dreamliner jets grounded in January by safety concerns.

"The commander of the flight had left the cockpit for a short while to visit the toilet and on returning to the cockpit found the door locked. The door had got jammed and all efforts to open the door, even from inside by the co-pilot, failed," an Air India statement said.

However I do understand that the chances of a jammed door AND an inflight emergency happening at the same time are infinitesimally small, and was wondering if a fault in the flight systems could both jam the door and bring the plane down. (of course I also understand that such an event would also be a one in a million chance.... but such slim chances have happened in the past)

 

[derwoodii]

scenario aircraft levels off, crew no 1 opens door to leave at that moment a passenger or passenger's use force to disable crew no1 hold door enter cockpit subdues crew no 2 the rest unfolds.

As no claims known that was act of bad guys its unlikely.

Have we been told air crew names or passenger list I cannot seem to find or is this on hold till next of kin and investigation unfolds

 

[Rob]

I understand that the pilot was alone in the cabin, and the co-pilot was trying to enter, and that there is no "auto-pilot" state that would lead the plane on a decent over 10 minutes, and I understand that this implies that the pilot was deliberately guiding the plane and all its passengers to its demise.

But I'm sorry, I am not willing to accept that right now.
The pilot was experienced, flying for 10 years, and according to the NY Times article the conversations between the co-pilot and the pilot were "very smooth, very cool". No indication that the pilot was about to commit mass murder.
Also, this crash does not make any sense as a "mass murder, suicide" mission a-la 911. There just does not seem ANY reason to slam a plane full of teenagers into a mountain.
So, before we surrender to our worst fears (of non-sensical mass murder), can we PLEASE consider some other options ?

For example, the case were the pilot, being alone in the cockpit, became incapacitated, and the plane is still on "manual" setting. What would happen is such a case ?

I presume the plane would fly in a direction and ramp set by the (now incapacitated) pilot. Is that right ?

If so, did the plane, over the last 10 minutes until the crash, really follow EXACTLY the intended flight path ? Or was it simply following a strait line, albeit with a decent of some 3000 ft/minute ?

 

[Henk001]

For example, the case were the pilot, being alone in the cockpit, became incapacitated, and the plane is still on "manual" setting. What would happen is such a case ?

He/she would have been able to unlock the door with a code. I understand that the official protocol is that a pilot should never be alone in the cockpit, when the other pilot leaves for some reason, another crew member should temporarely take his/her place.

Edit: In Europe this is not standard procedure for all companies, I just found out

 

[David Coulter]

A point of curiosity since there are pilots on this forum. Can the door code be changed from inside the cockpit?

 

[JFDee]

I hope you guys understand that pilots would prefer not to go into details about security procedures on public forums

There is a recent public video about one flavour of reinforced cockpit doors which is said to be associated with Airbus:

 

[JFDee]

did the plane, over the last 10 minutes until the crash, really follow EXACTLY the intended flight path ? Or was it simply following a strait line, albeit with a decent of some 3000 ft/minute ?

TWCobra has stated in a previous post that to his knowledge there is no way the descent was controlled by autopilot. I think we have to take the word of an experienced flight captain here ...

 

[occams rusty scissor]

A point of curiosity since there are pilots on this forum. Can the door code be changed from inside the cockpit?

From http://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...ermanwings-crash/story-fnizu68q-1227279954304 :

Australian aviation expert Ron Bartsch said.....
"We also know there was no mayday call made from the aircraft, which could be explained by this scenario which suggests a deliberate act by one of the pilots."

He said the cockpit of an A320 was designed so that only a conscious person inside could keep others locked out.

"If the pilot is unconscious, an emergency code can be used by flight crew to access the cockpit," Mr Bartsch said.

"If the pilot wants to keep the cockpit door locked, he or she can override this code, but they have to be awake in order to do that."

Cobra or Weedwacker - does this sound pretty accurate?

 

[David Coulter]

There is a recent public video about one flavour of reinforced cockpit doors which is said to be associated with Airbus:

Very informative. Thank you.

 

[JFDee]

He said the cockpit of an A320 was designed so that only a conscious person inside could keep others locked out.

This is consistant with the emergency access procedure described in the video I linked above, at 3:56.

 

[occams rusty scissor]

This is consistant with the procedure described in the video I linked above, at 3:56.

Sorry, I missed that for some reason, was too busy flicking between stories. So then yes, it would seem a pretty deliberate act to have that door remain shut, as in taking conscious effort to maintain the lock. Pretty ugly situation unfolding there...

 

[Henk001]

French police just confirmed the worst possible outcome........
A young relatively unexperienced copilot locked out the captain and deliberately crashed the plane. (They stress the fact that this is their first interpretation)
http://www.theguardian.com/world/li...tigation-press-conference-live-updates-4u9525

 

[Qualiall]

What Henk001 said--confirming pilot suicide

But was also going to point out that there are other ways to get locked out--like the Delta flight not too long ago

 

[TWCobra]

TWCobra has stated in a previous post that to his knowledge there is no way the descent was controlled by autopilot. I think we have to take the word of an experienced flight captain here ...

I may have been a bit in error with that. The sounds of the altitude selector being wound down were recorded. You don't need to do that if manually flying, however that may have just been to gently initiate the descent and the AP was disconnected some time in the descent when it was established. Certainly when flying at VMO it wouldnt take much of a change in wind or turbulence to put the speed through VMO+6 where the protections activate.

The investigation will bring all that to light.

The speed was what got my suspicion in the first place, mainly because the system would not default to max speed in the event of pilot incapacitation. It had to be selected manually through the autopilot or hand flown.

Now we know for sure. A black day for aviation.